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House Price Crash Forum


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About easy2012

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  1. Exactly, interest rate is only one of the factor (of course if they go to a high real rate like +5% above inflation) then of course everything will start to crash and at that point, people with big pot of cash can then just stop working and 'rent seeking' using the saving pot although the 'interest' obviously have to come from somewhere.. Other factors would be supply and demand, credits terms, type of people buying, earning capabilities, tax treatments, inflation expectation - and anything that affects the cash flow (in and out) of the purchase. The only sensible way out of this is lots of
  2. Another attempt of you to misrepresent thing. On second read, I suppose (again without a full page of glossary, I can only guess what you mean) that answer the question. I am afraid at this point the feeling is mutual. Best wishes.
  3. I take it that you do actually understand the word 'unlikely' but simply decide to ignore the word ?
  4. Totally out of context, obviously. I think you used the word bubble and leverage too and I suppose that must mean you are also telling people to buy on high leverage ?! The other thing - and yet you still have not answer basic question about your position - whether someone who definitely want to buy and is comfortable to buy should buy or should stay out given known facts.
  5. Firstly, I totaly agree with you where the housing market SHOULD be (for the young, affordability etc), but that is totally different from where it is likely TO BE in the sensible future (1,3,5,10 years). It may not be relevant to you, but it is relevant to the message (according to my interpretation) that you want to express, i.e. staying out at all cost even if one feels strongly about buying and can do so comfortably. Does that mean that leave 1 committed (high, say >80% certainty) meaningful nominal price fall (i.e. 20-30%) poster on this board? Where was a misunderstanding t
  6. Good to have your usual sensible self back. I take that as you believe Mr Carney. I don't. Even, that, the limit when QE3 was launched was a lot further from when QE1 was launch. You still have not answer my questions on your view on nominal price changes. I understood your no symmetry as a extremely skewed probability of a nominal fall, e.g. a >80% or even 100% chance of a nominal fall - which I reject. Anything say 30-70 to 30:70 reflects some level of symmetry. The flaw in your analysis is that your the only consideration is the availability of mortgage at attractive rates. N
  7. Your are normally quite sensible but I suppose I hit a raw nerve here. I am happy to consider a 30% down and 3.5x salary as being comfortable enough. Many of the STR here obviously fall into this category. A 2 years salary worth of saving as a cushion will be an added advantage. 10 year fixed is rather unnecessary. As for house move, you need to know that the housing market is fairly relative, if the one you buy goes down, the one you have to buy will also go down. I am afraid you made this up and continue to mis-represent my position. I have restate the clearly above. So now you
  8. But the hard part is to know whether the stitch = buys, or stich = stay out (and for how long).
  9. I suppose I am struggling with those who take an extreme (staying out at all cost) posters here - which is fine as long as they are aware that their view is just that - their views of the future - which may well turn out to be right (or maybe not). I am just trying to make sensible judgement based on known facts. If we know that 1million house will come to the market is 3 years (like Ireland/Spain situation) - then at least it is a reasonable speculation to hold out. There is no such overriding factor in the UK housing market (and plus the constant meddling from BoE/HMG) and to me, the cor
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