Killer Bunny Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 1% drop and only a 4 page thread. Capitulation? Could be but not likely. Morerealisation that stats can be fudged next month. Waiting for sustained falls. I believe it will not be next monthly stats that fully reflect end of FTB stamp duty and start of London taxes but May. Then it looks like 2012 could well be 2008#2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Could be but not likely. Morerealisation that stats can be fudged next month. Waiting for sustained falls. I believe it will not be next monthly stats that fully reflect end of FTB stamp duty and start of London taxes but May. Then it looks like 2012 could well be 2008#2. I bloody well hope so!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonBrownSpentMyFuture Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I bloody well hope so!! +1000 Having thrown everything at it last time it'll be interesting to see what they come up with this. Hopefully the answer will be "nothing" and the market will be allowed to correct itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I brought my house as a home. It is not an investment. It is a bit like buying a car. I should expect it to depreciate over time as it ages and pay to maintain it too. Car also depreciates in value over time but we brought them because we need them or we like using one. My plan is to pay off as much motrtgage as i possibly can and hopefully be mortgage free in 7 years time (i fixed my rate for 7 years). My house/home is depreciating in value but since I'm renting it's someone else's worry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmf Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 My house/home is depreciating in value but since I'm renting it's someone else's worry. Sweet jesus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I think that a rescue would not be in keeping with policy. Rescuing banks was one thing, rescuing the man in the street is another. BoE Lending to individuals data speaks volumes, (from February 2012 release): Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 The current house price has already fallen by over 30pc from its peak ( if u measure the house price in gold, oil or even wheat). Can it fall further? Of course it can. However, we need to bear in mind that the QE will lead to an inflationary hell in the next 2 to 3 yrs. Biflation is possible but house price might not fall as much (in nominal term only) when the price wage spiral kicks in. I brought my house as a home. It is not an investment. It is a bit like buying a car. I should expect it to depreciate over time as it ages and pay to maintain it too. Car also depreciates in value over time but we brought them because we need them or we like using one. My plan is to pay off as much motrtgage as i possibly can and hopefully be mortgage free in 7 years time (i fixed my rate for 7 years). I agree with a lot of what you say. In fact I am currently buying a house with my partner primarily as a home, you don't live forever and shorting property is good fun but not a lifelong game. I am just grateful that the market is now at 4.3 times male earnings(over 21) as opposed to the 6 it was at in 2007. It should go lower, my money is on 3.5 and an overall crash of -37.5% (my original prediction here in 2006). However, I don't think houses are far from fair value. Currently they are on the trend average, and slightly above the series average for 1983-2012. As we have kept more back in cash than we are actually paying for the said property that is still very short on property by UK standards. In fact, the EAs just couldn't fathom why we were looking at a huge price range and had us down as time wasters. They are presumably so used to buyers only considering the top end of their budget ans keeping cash back for retirement just doesn't compute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timak Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 However, I don't think houses are far from fair value. Currently they are on the trend average, and slightly above the series average for 1983-2012. There are huge regional disparities in that though. The only thing you can get for less than £150k in Cambridge is a 1 bed flat in the worst part of town. Where I grew up in Kent you can get a 3 bedroom semi for that money. In Salford you can get a decent house with a big garden for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 There are huge regional disparities in that though. The only thing you can get for less than £150k in Cambridge is a 1 bed flat in the worst part of town. Where I grew up in Kent you can get a 3 bedroom semi for that money. In Salford you can get a decent house with a big garden for that. My area has pretty much shadowed the UK indicies (East Midlands). I agree that you would be struggling in places like London or Cambridge to find value. I would imagine there are areas in Humberside and the North East where you could do much better than 70% of peak price in real terms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 (edited) I agree with a lot of what you say. In fact I am currently buying a house with my partner primarily as a home, you don't live forever and shorting property is good fun but not a lifelong game. I am just grateful that the market is now at 4.3 times male earnings(over 21) as opposed to the 6 it was at in 2007. It should go lower, my money is on 3.5 and an overall crash of -37.5% (my original prediction here in 2006). However, I don't think houses are far from fair value. Currently they are on the trend average, and slightly above the series average for 1983-2012. As we have kept more back in cash than we are actually paying for the said property that is still very short on property by UK standards. In fact, the EAs just couldn't fathom why we were looking at a huge price range and had us down as time wasters. They are presumably so used to buyers only considering the top end of their budget ans keeping cash back for retirement just doesn't compute. Except that trend line includes 30 years of real price increases, where as the 300 year history shows that no such trend exists. Edited April 2, 2012 by Guest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary Wonka Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Except that trend line includes 30 years of real price increases, where as the 300 year history shows that no such trend exists. 1000 years of history also tell us that our fiat currency would often leads to hyperinflation. Civilisations rise and fall. 10,000 years ago, Britain was covered with ice. How many civil wars and conflicts have there been in the last 3000 years? In a sense, we are all renting our home. Things change over time and who knows what the future hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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