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Gary Wonka

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About Gary Wonka

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  1. When biflation and hyperinflation finally occur, there will be mass emigration from the UK. Immigration is not a problem that you will need to worry about. When our fiat currency that is back by nothing and worth nothing collapsed, no one in their sound mind will come in this country. Labour, with their policy in bailing out banks, running a fiscal deficit each and every year and finally, funding their deficit with 'funny money' (quantitative easing) are one of the best policy to prevent future immigration.
  2. Trust me Japan is not the example that we will go by. These are the following reasons. 1. Japan has enjoyed a trade surplus for decades with a positive cummulative current account. 2. When recession hits Japan, the rest of the world were still doing reasonably well. At present, we have the PIGS and Euro about to implode. While the American's sovereign's debt crisis about to surface, China's also slowing down with high inflation. 3. Japan has a strong industrial base. At the time, they continue to manufacture goods that the world continues to buy. In our case, when our banks (manned by incompetent bankers, bailed out by corrupted politicians) go belly up, we have nothing to sell. Our service section will collapse. 4. Japan is nowhere 'printing' (a.k.a. quantitative easing) as much as we did / will. Our situation is more like Zimbabwe!!
  3. The concern is that the BoE will continue to print money like there is no tomorrow. They will continue to debase our currency to 'inflate' our debt away. What we have is a 'FIAT' currency that is back by nothing and worth nothing (in an intrinsic sense). While stagflation could lead to biflation, (where we will have a fall in prices in debt based assets (i.e. real estate) and a rise in prices in commodities (i.e. food and fuel) in the short term), the long term trend is that an increase in money supply will inflate the prices of every things. If you want to hold out until the biflation occurs, you need to seriously think about how you are going to protect your deposit. BoE will rob all your saving if you leave it in cash. In fact, there are not very many sound options. 1. Gold is fairly overpriced and unpredictable (but not as overprice as many think) 2. Shares and Bonds - when the PIGS and Euro imploded, the share market will collapse like the Soviet Union!! 3. US dollars, Euro, Yen are all fiat currencies and their central banks could not be trusted. I would put money on farmland and natural resources but you will need substantial amount of capital to invest in them properly.
  4. 1000 years of history also tell us that our fiat currency would often leads to hyperinflation. Civilisations rise and fall. 10,000 years ago, Britain was covered with ice. How many civil wars and conflicts have there been in the last 3000 years? In a sense, we are all renting our home. Things change over time and who knows what the future hold.
  5. This is a concern. It means that money are sucked into properties instead of investing into wealth creation and other means of production. The wage price spiral may occur if they overdo the QE. As our currency continues to debase, our real take home salaries has already fallen while the nominal salaries remian much the same. Labour is already getting slightly cheaper. We are already in stagflation and we are showing symptoms of biflation. There is no way that our government could repay our debt. They will create an inflationary hell to erode the value of this debt.
  6. If you have a decent deposit, you can fix your rate for 7 to 10 years under / just above 4 pc.
  7. The current house price has already fallen by over 30pc from its peak ( if u measure the house price in gold, oil or even wheat). Can it fall further? Of course it can. However, we need to bear in mind that the QE will lead to an inflationary hell in the next 2 to 3 yrs. Biflation is possible but house price might not fall as much (in nominal term only) when the price wage spiral kicks in. I brought my house as a home. It is not an investment. It is a bit like buying a car. I should expect it to depreciate over time as it ages and pay to maintain it too. Car also depreciates in value over time but we brought them because we need them or we like using one. My plan is to pay off as much motrtgage as i possibly can and hopefully be mortgage free in 7 years time (i fixed my rate for 7 years).
  8. We need more quantitative easing a.k.a. printing money to fight this ongoing deflationary spiral.
  9. Yes and we also need an eugenic policy. "I wish very much that the wrong people could be prevented entirely from breeding; and when the evil nature of these people is sufficiently flagrant, this should be done. Criminals should be sterilized and feebleminded persons forbidden to leave offspring behind them... The emphasis should be laid on getting desirable people to breed..." Roosevelt, “Twisted Eugenics,” in The Works of Theodore Roosevelt, op. cit., National Edition, XII, p. 201.
  10. Inflation is about to get worse. Welcome to the era of stagflation. I am fed up with BoE continue to give hint to expand the purchase of government bond without borrowing, namely quantitative easing, (aka. Printing money). Our currency will continue to weaken if these morons were not stopped. The problem with our economy is not going to be sorted by diluting the value of our currency in circulation and handing all these ‘newly created’ money to banks and hedge funds managers. Oil is getting more and more expensive as it is also becoming more and more difficult to find. We have a rising food and commonalities prices i.e. rare metal. There is a great danger that the BoE will push through another quantitative easing before Jan. 2011. This is because if they were going to do it, they need to act fast before the VAT increase to 20%. By that time, our inflation figure will only look worse and they will find it difficult to initiate it. We need to act now to prevent the bank from stealing our hard earned saving and continue to lower our standard of living. I propose we all sign a petition to number 10 to stop the morons in the MPC. Do you hear the people sing? Singing a song of angry men? It is the music of a people Who will not be slaves again! When the beating of your heart Echoes the beating of the drums There is a life about to start When tomorrow comes! COMBEFERRE Will you join in our crusade? Who will be strong and stand with me? Beyond the barricade Is there a world you long to see? Courfeyrac: Then join in the fight That will give you the right to be free!
  11. The sick man of Europe – United Kingdom UK’s economy is deteriorating rapidly. The UK unemployment rate is hitting 7.8% in Jun 2010. We are rapidly running out of things to sell. 1. UK’s economy has traditionally been (‘traditionally’ as in Post ‘big bang’) relied upon the service sector, namely the banking sector to create meaningful ‘export’ (of service) to balance our trade. We all know that the banking sector remained fragile and has been the recipients of government handouts. 2. We had long reached peak oil production in the North Sea. We are seeing sharp decline over the last decade or two. 3. The public sector employed up to 40% of the work force. In two days time, we are going to see a budget cut across most departments at 10- 25% or more. However, the coalition government is right that the current level of deficit is not sustainable. 4. BoE has been lying to us all along. They lied about the inflation being ‘temporary’ phenomenon. Inflation is here to stay. They pumped £200 billion into diluting the value of the current currency in circulation. On top of this, Oil (Brent Cruel) has now reached over $80 per barrel. Food is getting more expensive. It is not just the UK but the whole world is running out of Food and Oil. Many commonalities will only become even more expensive. In short, I think inflation is here to stay in short to short-medium term and it would get worse if the BoE restart their QE2. Unemployment will get worse in the next two years. We will officially in ‘recession’ / ‘downturn’ / ‘depression’ (whatever you like to call it) in 2011. The value of our home will continue to decline in real and nominal term (It may retain value in nominal term if the BoE begin QE2 but there is nothing they can do that would increase their value in real term).
  12. Many of them, did make a significant contribution to their pension. It was the government whom, they have no concern over the future, keep spending. In the PFI, private companies were making a profit at 56% of their capital (by funding all those expensive projects). It was pure corrpution. Health for one, will need a two tier system. This will allow the long term sick and unemployed part of the society died at a quickier rate and thus save tax payer some money. However, if you look at how much they spent (or going to spend) to bail out banks, running the NHS was relatively cheap!
  13. By debt, do you mean the toxic assest (technically, it is not a debt, yet!) being hold by Banks, our public sector net debt, consumer's debt, PFI or unfunded public pension time bomb? or you are simply concerned about the balance sheet of these banks and wanted to know why did they borrow so much money away?
  14. well said. Perfect for corruption and Perfect for business government corporatism. Afterall, industrialists spend million and million of dollar/ pound to buy out politician. Free market (which is hardwork for them) is the last thing on their agenda. Monopoly is what they are after.
  15. 1) UK property UK property hasn't reached bottom yet but if you are looking for a roof over your head (in case of hyperinflation), it is not a bad long term investment. You will need a reasonable deposit (like 25 - 30% at least) and a well protected income (unemployment will be high). I supposed not many of us will be in this position, hence the lowering of the market. 2) UK £ bank savings accounts Gordon Brown is likely to devalue the pound further, but he is just as likely to do a political U-turn at some point 3) NS&I Short term – Yes (1 year or less), Long term - UK government is at risk of default. It might not protect your asset against high inflation.(except in one of their product). 4) Gilts Maybe, but then again UK government is at risk of default. 5) PMs FTSE is very volatile, impossible to predict. 6) UK bank stocks (I'm assuming worthless but including for completeness) Oh, Come on! Throw your life saving into RBS with a lucky roll of dice. You never know. 7) Invest in yourself Eat well, exercise and education are important. The first two will keep your body in top condition and you will need it. Health service will become very limited as government is no longer able to borrow any money to fund their spending habit. Education, if used correctly, can improve your chance of getting a job interview, hence landing you a job. IMF might ask us to bankrupt our banks and allow the creative destruction to occur. However, IMF has almost ran out of money. China will dictate our term now.
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