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Swansea-State Of The Market


thirdwave

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HOLA441
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Most Swansea West houses will never sell anywhere near current asking prices.

I'm amazed that anything over 400K sells in S'x . I ask myself where these buyers are coming from (across the bridge still I think) and are they completely insane to pay these prices (or even 20% less).

But.... then I realise, probably just like me, they are fearful that there is going to be an almighty crash (at any time now) and the cash sitting in their various accounts will disappear in a single puff of smoke, like it never existed. 20 years hard graft and self-denial and absolutely nothing to show for it. It doesn't bear thinking about does it?

I'm not into wine, or art, or gold, or S/S so what's left ? Buying now for me is not an act of faith, or a change in my interpretation of the market forces. I simply fear that if I don't use it I'll lose it. Seriously worried!!

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I have lost count of the number of houses on sale in Swansea / Mumbles / Gower that have simply changed estate agents whilst maintaining the silly asking prices. Some have done the rounds of virtually all the estate agent chains.

Regarding Llandewi Gower houses the madness down there, IMPO, continues. There are several houses for sale in that area for truly ludicrous asking prices IMPO. Half a million asking price seems common and you just work your way up- think one was one for 1.5 million asking at one point.

You go half a mile up the road to Knelston / Reynoldston and you have the one repossession that we all know about and, from what I hear on the grapevine, rumour of 2 more potential repos in waiting.

Back down to Llandewi and I have heard of 2 sellers in that area - not the house you refer to as I do not know anything about that house - who are, so the grapevine argues, are very keen to sell... but need to sell at a certain price to get out debt free. All rumour of course so no idea how true such rumours are.

If interest rates had risen sharply I suspect that we would have seen a bloodbath of repos down that way, but then we would have seen them all over Swansea and Gower... and all over the UK.

I posted a couple of months back that I think with a significant number of properties in Swansea / Mumbles / Gower that we have reached a point now where the sellers simply cannot drop their asking price any lower. If this was the early 90s and IRs had risen sharply then they would have been repoed by now. Such sellers, holding on to their asking prices are very silly IMPO, as the danger still exists of a sudden sharp rise in UK mortgage rates.

Checkmate.

TMT, you seriously underestimate the levels of delusion among many mortgagees in Swansea, many of who appear to be afflicted by the ‘best house on the street syndrome’, a seriously debilitating condition with no known cure. For instance, I was chatting to an acquaintance the other day who recently took his house off the market after having it on at 600k for many years. His grand plan involved selling his for the full asking price and buying a much larger house in good decorative order with a big garden on the same street for 550k (which has also been available for a few years now) thus pocketing a hard earned and thoroughly deserved 50 k in the process. He seemed quite puzzled why his hadn’t sold since it was clearly the best house on the street by a long margin. Although he is still convinced its worth every penny of the original asking price, he has now reluctantly decided to withdraw it from the market as it may ‘lose value’ the longer it stayed unsold..

This is the sort of madness and denial we are dealing with in Swansea…

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HOLA445

TMT, you seriously underestimate the levels of delusion among many mortgagees in Swansea, many of who appear to be afflicted by the ‘best house on the street syndrome’, a seriously debilitating condition with no known cure. For instance, I was chatting to an acquaintance the other day who recently took his house off the market after having it on at 600k for many years. His grand plan involved selling his for the full asking price and buying a much larger house in good decorative order with a big garden on the same street for 550k (which has also been available for a few years now) thus pocketing a hard earned and thoroughly deserved 50 k in the process. He seemed quite puzzled why his hadn’t sold since it was clearly the best house on the street by a long margin. Although he is still convinced its worth every penny of the original asking price, he has now reluctantly decided to withdraw it from the market as it may ‘lose value’ the longer it stayed unsold..

This is the sort of madness and denial we are dealing with in Swansea…

:lol::lol::lol:

Yep, with such brilliant financial reasoning you wonder how such people managed to afford such a house to begin with!?

Inheritance, often either of the property or some local business... or both, and then sat back and rode the biggest housing bubble in history.

Nah, the crash in Swansea is coming from the increasing repos. It is still slow but it appears to be gathering place. Spoke to another EA yesterday who confirmed that anything up to about 125K sells but, in that particular Swansea West branch, anything above it is very difficult to sell.

The chap you referred to will be carried out of his property and his kids will be forced to pay a big inheritance tax on it - no doubt they will stick on the market for a million then! :lol::lol::lol:

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HOLA447

This is from my latest Land Registry analysis.

These tables are programmatically generated.

Note that the LR data will contain a number of recording errors (from the person registering the transaction), so some apparently extraordinary gains or losses may not be genuine.

Also a cursory check will often show that where an unusual gain has been made there's a good reason for it. Apart from straight refurbishments/extensions, in some cases properties have been demolished and rebuilt, or altered to such an extent that the house is virtually unrecognisable from its state at the time of the previous sale.

Swansea_0712_Summary.gif

Swansea_0712_PriceH.gif

Swansea_0712_PriceL.gif

Swansea_0712_Losers.gif

Swansea_0712_Gainers.gif

Here's a summary of the areas I've processed so far:

Summary_190712.gif

SA postcodes show the lowest median price so far at £120,000 (this is just for houses which have a previous sale figure). However the median nominal gain is second-highest and in real terms SA seems to be holding up quite well in comparison to other areas.

In terms of overall sales registered with LR in Mar/Apr/May (i.e. not just those that have a previous price), only 10 houses sold in SA for more than 500K. This isn't quite as low as the LL postcode area where only 3 sales of 500K+ were registered (and the maximum price was only 570K). Gwynedd alone has 141 properties for sale on Rightmove for over 500K (and 30 for 1m+), so those owners might be waiting a while for the cash.

Top seller in SA in Mar/Apr/May was 16b West Cliff, Southgate, Swansea, SA3, which had a recent asking price "in excess of £650,000". It sold for £661,075.

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Excellent info Freetrader. Swansea is special. :unsure:

Edit:

Going away to digest this.

Special in the sense that every other daughter has her pony, riding and dance lessons and every other son seems to have his assorted guitars , drum kits, and weights room .

So much money (MEW?) wasted on so little #$@#$ talent!

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Nice to see a load of SSTC come back available in the past 24 hours, along with several sizeable price drops.

The new to market continues to come on with, IMPO, ludicrous asking price valuations. How silly in this market.

Pretty good reduction .

There's a bungalow just outside Cardigan town (7 bed I think with 2 bed annexe in the grounds) and back garden slopes down to the River Teifi (with mooring). Came only only a few months ago for 975K if I recall correctly ; just reduced to 650K. But when the Teifi floods as it did back in 1990 watch out.....

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MT. Remember that property that we are advertising for £209k in Tycoch?

Vendor went to JF for an updated opinion on the market and they told her that she should increase the asking price to £215k to gain some interest :blink:

Thankfully, she is a little brighter than some and is going to reduce the price to £199k pretty soon although we do have an offer in, but buyer needs to sell first.

If only all vendors could understand the market, then perhaps it might start to move.

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MT. Remember that property that we are advertising for £209k in Tycoch?

Vendor went to JF for an updated opinion on the market and they told her that she should increase the asking price to £215k to gain some interest :blink:

Thankfully, she is a little brighter than some and is going to reduce the price to £199k pretty soon although we do have an offer in, but buyer needs to sell first.

If only all vendors could understand the market, then perhaps it might start to move.

Well, that is just stupid. They seem to have less new stock in that branch so perhaps they need stock on their books?

I don't bother with Simpsons at all now - I see their asking prices on RM and I laugh. I got talking to a chap in Sketty a while back, cash buyer like myself, and he told me that he does not bother looking at their houses either.

Going to be a long winter in Swansea for lots of house sellers.

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That's the one. As we've said before many of our English brethren deciding to sample the country life and deciding it's not for them in wildest Wales. Thinking they can make another killing (as they probably did on selling up in England)they pull a figure from the air, but unless another dreamer comes along they are knackered. Locals only laugh at the pie in the sky figures. Hard selling to Cardies....forget it.

Yep, this is true across Wales.

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HOLA4421

I can see PA and Dawsons have a sign there, but who is the other agent?

Looks like it is 1stopletting judging by the board layout, but I can't see the colours.

Vendor is obviously desparate to sell using several agents, but have any of them recommended reducing the price? :unsure:

Is there any room in that house where you can't be monitored , checked or observed by a neighbour ? Oh, hang on, there is a loft room.

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HOLA4422

I can see PA and Dawsons have a sign there, but who is the other agent?

Looks like it is 1stopletting judging by the board layout, but I can't see the colours.

Vendor is obviously desparate to sell using several agents, but have any of them recommended reducing the price? :unsure:

You can just make out the word 'For' of 'For Sale' on that sign so perhaps Fresh?

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HOLA4425

Any thoughts on Swansea Marina? I'm looking for a flat in the Swansea area -family requirements not investment property -and whilst the offering prices see somewhat on the high side, are there any developments there worth viewing/putting in a cheeky bid for?

Big student influx into the marina in last couple of years. Lots of retirees looking to move out.

There are 2 student campuses being built nearby. IMPO give it 5 to 10 years and the place will be like Brynmill/Uplands is now.

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