On The Brink

[polythene pam]

Why do you need more transparency within the housing market here to tell you what a property is worth? It's simply what someone and their lender will pay for it.

To me collecting auction data for property is irrelevant, unless your buying at auction to sell back to auction the next day and thats a very risky strategy.

Auction data gives those of us who wish to buy in the future some indications as to where the market is at. For those of us on the outside, as neither bankers nor estate agents, we need to build up a picture of the market using scraps of data from various sources. One of the great sources is the auction data, where we can see how high buyers are prepared to bid, or not. Seeing the types of bids coming in and comparing with asking prices for similar properties on the open market gives a good guide as to how overpriced the latter property may be and where it might end up. It may indicate a market bottom when investors start to pour back in to the market. It may indicate what prices will be at the bottom.

No-one wants to pay too much for a house. When it comes to deciding what is 'too much', then knowledge is power.

[VedantaTrader]

Auction data gives those of us who wish to buy in the future some indications as to where the market is at. For those of us on the outside, as neither bankers nor estate agents, we need to build up a picture of the market using scraps of data from various sources. One of the great sources is the auction data, where we can see how high buyers are prepared to bid, or not. Seeing the types of bids coming in and comparing with asking prices for similar properties on the open market gives a good guide as to how overpriced the latter property may be and where it might end up. It may indicate a market bottom when investors start to pour back in to the market. It may indicate what prices will be at the bottom.

No-one wants to pay too much for a house. When it comes to deciding what is 'too much', then knowledge is power.

I thought it was quite obvious why it would be useful to have transparency in this data, and it seems that the work that is being done on this (by Paul65) will go some way to giving that much needed transparency. It doesn't effect me as a non-participant in the NI housing market, but I m sure the people on here and in the wider community will find it useful. As PPam says, it will show the power of the bid, how much true demand there is at certain price brackets.

The example of saying a house could have been a shed before is more and outlier event, however at least knowing this data provides a base to work from and investigate more. Most people want a house that needs little work, and only needs furnishing.

[S S]

I thought it was quite obvious why it would be useful to have transparency in this data, and it seems that the work that is being done on this (by Paul65) will go some way to giving that much needed transparency. It doesn't effect me as a non-participant in the NI housing market, but I m sure the people on here and in the wider community will find it useful. As PPam says, it will show the power of the bid, how much true demand there is at certain price brackets.

The example of saying a house could have been a shed before is more and outlier event, however at least knowing this data provides a base to work from and investigate more. Most people want a house that needs little work, and only needs furnishing.

As someone who has bought plenty at auction (not houses), it ain't obvious to me why I would base a buying decision on what the last item was bought for. It's what I could sell it for to make a profit or at worst not make a loss. The reverse could happen, the person who last bought at auction could have paid to much.

But did the access to land registry data stop a house bubble in mainland UK?

Why is it going to here?

However if someone has the time and can be bothered to collect the data then fair play. Does make me wonder why the auction houses don't publish the data for a small charge, maybe because nobody would buy it.

[paul65]

However if someone has the time and can be bothered to collect the data then fair play. Does make me wonder why the auction houses don't publish the data for a small charge, maybe because nobody would buy it.

Well SS, it looks like one company (The Essential Information Group) on the mainland already have a successful business where they capture and record auction data (purchased from the auction houses for a fee). 6 months subscription to the auction data is £200 and clearly this is a service that mostly attracts investors. The one missing piece in their jigsaw is that EIG do not have any information concerning the NI auction marketplace ... which is where the free info on http://nipropertyauctions.googlepages.com/ comes in handy.

Allsops auctions also make their sales outcomes freely available on their website, http://www.auction.co.uk/residential/pastResults.asp?A=604 to aid transparency, however I am not quite sure if Wilsons Auctions would be quite so forward thinking to publish the same information on their own site. I would encourage them to do so.

Clearly you don't value the auction data SS and that is fine by me. I am not forcing you (or anyone else) to look at it ..... but from the usage stats that are collected on the site I know that people do visit the site and that they do download the reports and use them in a way that suits their needs - whatever that need may be.

[VedantaTrader]

As someone who has bought plenty at auction (not houses), it ain't obvious to me why I would base a buying decision on what the last item was bought for. It's what I could sell it for to make a profit or at worst not make a loss. The reverse could happen, the person who last bought at auction could have paid to much.

But did the access to land registry data stop a house bubble in mainland UK?

Why is it going to here?

However if someone has the time and can be bothered to collect the data then fair play. Does make me wonder why the auction houses don't publish the data for a small charge, maybe because nobody would buy it.

And is at what price you buy it at not going to effect your profit? I know if I buy something cheap, and sell it at the same price as someone else is, but they paid more for it than I did, then my profit will be larger.

Would knowing what price the "market" was prepared to pay not be a guiding factor in how much you are prepared to pay at an auction? By saying not knowing what price something is selling doesn't matter is basically discounting a market pricing mechanism, to make pricing more efficient.. It is fundamentally this transparency which allows a market to discover price.

You are right in saying that it will not prevent a bubble as that was excessive credit, however what it might do is allow more efficient pricing and it will allow people oricing power, as they will be able to say now, "Well a very similar property last week sold for x amount?" It means the buyer can then make a more informed decision. It is also a point of reference which can be used to cross reference with what the estate agent is telling you...all in all, it seems like a useful tool to measure the "temperature" of the market right now. You mention about it being 6 months down the line, however, what if you were buying that same week? Why 6 months?

Perhaps, with more of this type of information you could have actually of bought items for less than you did...? More efficient pricing allows more decimilisation with bid and ask prices. One only has to look to stocks, or a high developed futures market to see now that you can buy a stock such as Birtish Airways at fractions of a penny...Is it not price transparency, ie, seeing the bid and ask at each price that allows investors to buy at incremental prices. Perhaps good data will allow you to bargain at smaller increments.

Also would trends not be something useful to know also? Gathering this data overtime will also enable one to develop a price trend to see if the market is moving up or down over a 3, 6, 9, 12 month moving average.

Edited September 5, 2009 by VedantaTrader

[Ride_on]

Just caught up with the series on iplayer. Bit boring but FP really gave the banker a bloody nose on the live show, get in there!! Rampers where under represented, and TR rep was sitting beside FP, he was very afraid and didn't say anything stupid Arelene foster is really a politician, can't answer a straight question.

On the issue of Land registry data, my experience is that EA valuations here are all over the place, there is a huge amount of noise above and below average prices and a large number of people ripped off. Sure it won't stop the boom/bust but I think it would reduce the noise, and obviously transparency.

[Belfast Boy]

Just got to watch the show today on iplayer. One of your best FP. Excellent points clearly presented. Well done.

Did anyone else notice the round of applause the audience gave FP? They obviously agreed with what he was saying.

I hear that the Nolan radio show the next day was even better as there was some professor agreeing with you.

The iplayer is not working for that show.

Edited September 7, 2009 by Belfast Boy

[subby]

whats your work?

I think unemployment figures are blatant lies

It only shows those on JSA, it doesnt take into account the people claiming "to be sick" and going onto ESA. Or the likes of housewives/husbands who may stay at home and look after children or those who go back into education.

Mind you we dont want the real figure to get in the way of the green shoots on the way up now do we?

I work in a University in Belfast, we have had so many more applications for degrees than previous years, guess the lack of jobs makes further education more attractive to many leaving school students

[BelfastVI]

And is at what price you buy it at not going to effect your profit? I know if I buy something cheap, and sell it at the same price as someone else is, but they paid more for it than I did, then my profit will be larger.

Would knowing what price the "market" was prepared to pay not be a guiding factor in how much you are prepared to pay at an auction? By saying not knowing what price something is selling doesn't matter is basically discounting a market pricing mechanism, to make pricing more efficient.. It is fundamentally this transparency which allows a market to discover price.

You are right in saying that it will not prevent a bubble as that was excessive credit, however what it might do is allow more efficient pricing and it will allow people oricing power, as they will be able to say now, "Well a very similar property last week sold for x amount?" It means the buyer can then make a more informed decision. It is also a point of reference which can be used to cross reference with what the estate agent is telling you...all in all, it seems like a useful tool to measure the "temperature" of the market right now. You mention about it being 6 months down the line, however, what if you were buying that same week? Why 6 months?

Perhaps, with more of this type of information you could have actually of bought items for less than you did...? More efficient pricing allows more decimilisation with bid and ask prices. One only has to look to stocks, or a high developed futures market to see now that you can buy a stock such as Birtish Airways at fractions of a penny...Is it not price transparency, ie, seeing the bid and ask at each price that allows investors to buy at incremental prices. Perhaps good data will allow you to bargain at smaller increments.

Also would trends not be something useful to know also? Gathering this data overtime will also enable one to develop a price trend to see if the market is moving up or down over a 3, 6, 9, 12 month moving average.

At fire-sale auctions, particularly repossession I think it is accepted you will get the property at 20% below 'Market value' (what ever that may be). That is the whole idea of going to these things - to get a bargain. Why else would you take the risk of contract on the night. Therefore if you were to go as high as the general market price, that is what people pay during the process of normal conveyancing, you are probably paying too much.

Few people expect to obtain a higher price at a 'fire sale' auction than through a normal transaction. What they hope to get is a binding contract and they will accept a lower price for that.

The opposite is also true, and well accepted. The prices obtained at these auctions is lower than the general market price and cannot be taken to reflect the general market price.

[Rock-n-Roll]

I work in a University in Belfast, we have had so many more applications for degrees than previous years, guess the lack of jobs makes further education more attractive to many leaving school students

so where are all these graduate jobs?

have we an education bubble?

rock on!

[azogar]

so where are all these graduate jobs?

asda

[Rock-n-Roll]

At fire-sale auctions, particularly repossession I think it is accepted you will get the property at 20% below 'Market value' (what ever that may be). That is the whole idea of going to these things - to get a bargain. Why else would you take the risk of contract on the night. Therefore if you were to go as high as the general market price, that is what people pay during the process of normal conveyancing, you are probably paying too much.

Few people expect to obtain a higher price at a 'fire sale' auction than through a normal transaction. What they hope to get is a binding contract and they will accept a lower price for that.

The opposite is also true, and well accepted. The prices obtained at these auctions is lower than the general market price and cannot be taken to reflect the general market price.

so who would you rather have setting the market price?

a roomful of buyers at an auction

or an EA spinning a few yarns on the dog and bone

rock on!

[BelfastVI]

so who would you rather have setting the market price?

a roomful of buyers at an auction

or an EA spinning a few yarns on the dog and bone

rock on!

The market sets the prices and these should be confirmed from - Actual confirmed sales. I think we agree on this. The point I was making was perhaps against a number of different posts that were talking about auctions and the release of official land registry figures. I am saying that it is a well known fact that bargains can be obtained at auctions. I read an American article (no link) that seemed to accept that a 20% discount off market value had to be allowed for fire-sale prices. When you think about -why else would you take the risk.

[Rock-n-Roll]

The market sets the prices and these should be confirmed from - Actual confirmed sales. I think we agree on this. The point I was making was perhaps against a number of different posts that were talking about auctions and the release of official land registry figures. I am saying that it is a well known fact that bargains can be obtained at auctions. I read an American article (no link) that seemed to accept that a 20% discount off market value had to be allowed for fire-sale prices. When you think about -why else would you take the risk.

as far as i know in the good old US system

debts like property taxes which would follow the previous owner here

are held against the actual property there

so you could buy a house and then find yourself with a large tax bill to settle

at auction here if you and your legal eagle do the research before hand regards title etc

which all but the very foolish will be doing

what risks are there?

you will certainly not have the risk of an EA talking you into a bidding war

which only exists in his imagination!

rock on!

[BelfastVI]

as far as i know in the good old US system

debts like property taxes which would follow the previous owner here

are held against the actual property there

so you could buy a house and then find yourself with a large tax bill to settle

at auction here if you and your legal eagle do the research before hand regards title etc

which all but the very foolish will be doing

what risks are there?

you will certainly not have the risk of an EA talking you into a bidding war

which only exists in his imagination!

rock on!

O really, if you think that please don't go to an auction. I have spoken on this before.

On the risks - there may be 10 house for sale that you would be happy with. You set your level for each and you let them go if they go over that or don't sell. It is difficult to do the legals etc on each and every one £500+. on traditional sales you purchase 'subject to contract' so you only do the legals after a sale has been agreed. You have 4 to 6 weeks to do this properly and if something comes out of the woodwork, you re-negotiate or walk. You will also get the chance to have you mortgage approved and the mortgage valuer view and approve the property and value.

You wont do the same on several properties at auction, some wont even be available for internal viewing. And whilst the bank may pre approve amounts (which can be re-tracted) they will not send valuers out to look at properties you have not yet purchased.

[S S]

as far as i know in the good old US system

debts like property taxes which would follow the previous owner here

are held against the actual property there

so you could buy a house and then find yourself with a large tax bill to settle

at auction here if you and your legal eagle do the research before hand regards title etc

which all but the very foolish will be doing

what risks are there?

you will certainly not have the risk of an EA talking you into a bidding war

which only exists in his imagination!

rock on!

"so you could buy a house and then find yourself with a large tax bill to settle". Don't tell the sheeple how the US property market works, the auction deals over there won't look so cheap.

at auction here if you and your legal eagle do the research before hand regards title etc

which all but the very foolish will be doing

what risks are there?

Unless your legal eagle works for free you stand the risk of losing the fees accumulated, if someone at the auction out bids you. Do that 4 or 5 times and your bargain won't be such a bargain.

you will certainly not have the risk of an EA talking you into a bidding war

What about bidding off the wall?

Edited September 7, 2009 by statinstoinker

[Rock-n-Roll]

O really, if you think that please don't go to an auction. I have spoken on this before.

On the risks - there may be 10 house for sale that you would be happy with. You set your level for each and you let them go if they go over that or don't sell. It is difficult to do the legals etc on each and every one £500+. on traditional sales you purchase 'subject to contract' so you only do the legals after a sale has been agreed. You have 4 to 6 weeks to do this properly and if something comes out of the woodwork, you re-negotiate or walk. You will also get the chance to have you mortgage approved and the mortgage valuer view and approve the property and value.

You wont do the same on several properties at auction, some wont even be available for internal viewing. And whilst the bank may pre approve amounts (which can be re-tracted) they will not send valuers out to look at properties you have not yet purchased.

of dear VI

thers 10 houses at wilsons in the 1 night you would be happy with!

i think it might be more like 1 house in 10 auctions!

yes with an EA sale you can walk away

so can the seller no guarantee of securing your dream house

as for finance well you shouldnt be at an auction if you havnt it covered

but then should you making offers to EAs without knowing your limit

and messing sellers about

you probably know more about this

rock on!

[Rock-n-Roll]

"so you could buy a house and then find yourself with a large tax bill to settle". Don't tell the sheeple how the US property market works, the auction deals over there won't look so cheap.

at auction here if you and your legal eagle do the research before hand regards title etc

which all but the very foolish will be doing

what risks are there?

Unless your legal eagle works for free you stand the risk of losing the fees accumulated, if someone at the auction out bids you. Do that 4 or 5 times and your bargain won't be such a bargain.

you will certainly not have the risk of an EA talking you into a bidding war

What about bidding off the wall?

as always SS

Caveat emptor!

rock on!

[BelfastVI]

as always SS

Caveat emptor!

rock on!

Exactly

That's a better approach that 'what risks are there'

no need to thank us.

[Bosco]

16:35 - did the banker soil himself?

I reckon big Stevo's mic was pickin it up as he tried to slip one out without noticing!

Anyhow this was a refreshing change to the way things have been represented in the past. I still think that Nolans shout down the guests strategy stinks and is extremely amateur ; on the upside his questions, although probably fed by earpiece were more incisive than usual. The BBA & TR guys were portrayed as being particularly spineless in the face of questioning and FP did a good job maintaining his realistic stance. Foster appeared like a humpy school girl with little of any real value to offer the recent redundancies. Average house price in two years i reckon will be around 100k. Thought that the average wage was duff, 21k at best.

[Belfast Boy]

You can download the podcast here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/nolan

Click on the podcast for Friday 4th Sept

If you cant listen to all 35 mins then listen to the last 8 mins.

Jonathon at his best.

Thanks db.

The iplayer link is now working. I just listened to the whole thing. Good stuff indeed. Had to laugh at the man that said the prediction by FP of a 30%-40% further fall was without foundation - after FP had just given 4 good reasons.

For those that just want the best bits - Financial Planner 47mins -50mins. Then have a listen to Professor Hillyard from QUB at 1h02m - 1h14m who agreed with Financial Planner and said that "economist keep getting it wrong" and then said that the economist John Simpson was very optimistic.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00mg...how_04_09_2009/

Edited September 7, 2009 by Belfast Boy

[Rock-n-Roll]

Exactly

does this mean that you agree

that buying through an Ea carries risks as well?

rock on!

[Belfast Boy]

Thanks BB. Professor Hillyard certainly seemed to know what he was talking about.

... he certainly does. He writes the Northern Ireland Living Standard Index (NILSI) report. A genuine housing expert?

http://www.qub.ac.uk/schools/SchoolofSocio.../PaddyHillyard/

[paul65]

of dear VI

thers 10 houses at wilsons in the 1 night you would be happy with!

i think it might be more like 1 house in 10 auctions!

rock on!

This, http://www.wilsonsauctions.com/property_de...w.asp?id=265554 might be one of the 1 house in 10 auctions that you were talking about R&R.

Admittedly it is in Co. Galway but it is:

* Attractive detached house

* Extending to approximately 3500 sq ft

* Feature stair, porcelain tiles in lounge

* Five beroom, 2 reception room, cherry fitted kitchen

* With approximately 17 acres of land to the rear

Listed on Daft at 200k Euros[/url] it went to auction at a guide of 130k stlg and sold at auction last week for 140k stlg.

Bargain I'd say .... If you wanted to live in Co Galway with 17 acres of land included.

[juvenal]

Think this deserves its own thread. On the Brink BBC 1 tv series this week presented by Stephen 'fat boy' Nolan.

Synopsis:

As the recession continues to bite hard in Northern Ireland, Stephen Nolan presents a series of programmes that go behind the scenes in the offices of the Citizens' Advice Bureau, which finds itself at the coal face in helping those affected cope with its impact.

From personal debt to property repossessions and redundancies, this insightful and emotional series looks at how the new hardship of the 21st century is afflicting people of all backgrounds.

Didn't catch the above, but did get the Nolan Radio Ulster prog* from yesterday on Developers v Writ-Laden off-plan purchasers of apartments

Jonanthon Davis on stonking form, and some very articulate, informed contributors echoing JD's point of view. Big victory for the bears, with Nolan's general terror clearly audible.

* podcast available and very well worth a listen.