Eu Faces Permanent Loss Of Output - Its Knackered.

[sunonmars]

I think the phrase is "fooked".

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/247ffa48-66f0-11...?nclick_check=1

The priceless quote : According to the Commission’s forecasters, the eurozone’s public debt will soar to 83.8 per cent of gross domestic product in 2010 from 66 per cent in 2007. Belgium, Greece and Italy will have debts above 100 per cent of GDP in 2010, France’s debt will be 86 per cent and Germany’s debt will be 78.7 per cent.

Europe is likely to suffer a permanent loss in potential economic output as a result of the global crisis, and government finances will be under pressure for years to come, according to a new European Commission study.

“The crisis is the equivalent of capital destruction, reducing – at least for a time – the productive potential of the economy,†the report says.

“Current market disruption in financial markets and the more heavily regulated environment that is likely to follow can also be expected to have a permanent negative effect on potential growth, e.g. through reduced availability of capital for R&D and innovation activities.â€

The Commission’s report on the 16-nation eurozone’s economy represents the European Union’s first in-depth attempt to assess the long-term consequences of the crisis for economic growth and Europe’s public finances.

Its warnings are likely to reinforce the view of policymakers in countries such as Germany, Europe’s largest economy, and Sweden, which assumed the EU’s rotating presidency on Wednesday, that Europe has absolutely no more room for fiscal expansion to combat the crisis.

Edited July 3, 2009 by sunonmars

[interestrateripoff]

What I want to know is what's happened to EU funding.

It's a % of each nations tax take.

Logically it must have fallen off a cliff and the EU must be running out of money.

So where is the EU going to fund itself from, what projects has it cut so far?

[sunonmars]

What I want to know is what's happened to EU funding.

It's a % of each nations tax take.

Logically it must have fallen off a cliff and the EU must be running out of money.

So where is the EU going to fund itself from, what projects has it cut so far?

Exactly there is no money, where are all these countries going to get the cash to pay the bills, UK plc is a car crash in motion, the EU seems even in worse shape.

[interestrateripoff]

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/budget/data/AP201...1/EN/index.html

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/budget/data/AP201...-204/index.html

According to this chart here it appears they are expecting revenue to grow in 2009 and 2010?

[sunonmars]

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/budget/data/AP201...1/EN/index.html

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/budget/data/AP201...-204/index.html

According to this chart here it appears they are expecting revenue to grow in 2009 and 2010?

Fat chance, that debt against gdp is just astronomical, its basically running on exhaust fumes and no petrol station within 100 miles.

[Jack Sparrow]

Fat chance, that debt against gdp is just astronomical, its basically running on exhaust fumes and no petrol station within 100 miles.

HIP HIP HOORAY!!!!!

The end of the great EUROCON..........................lets all rejoice!!!???

[SarahBell]

Would protectionism help?

Trading within the EU only would mean all the crap we want to buy has to come from the eu - and that'd work if we were energy self-sufficient?

[CokeSnortingTory]

You see, historically Europe would have alleviated this kind of situation with a fratricidal, capital-destroying war. Trans-national organisations like the EU unfortunately mitigate against this kind of solution.

[Deckard]

I think the phrase is "fooked".

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/247ffa48-66f0-11...?nclick_check=1

The priceless quote : According to the Commission’s forecasters, the eurozone’s public debt will soar to 83.8 per cent of gross domestic product in 2010 from 66 per cent in 2007. Belgium, Greece and Italy will have debts above 100 per cent of GDP in 2010, France’s debt will be 86 per cent and Germany’s debt will be 78.7 per cent.

snip

Just to clarify, the article refers specifically to the Eurozone, not to the larger EU.

I've been saying that Eurozone is fukked for a loooong time now on HPC.

The Euro is wildly overvalued, and will have to come down to more realistic levels againt all major ccys.

There is a timebomb ticking, cited in the last part of the FT article

Euro area banks are still highly leveraged, and persistent concerns about the quality of their assets have fuelled fears about the overall health of their balance sheets.

Understatement of the century... they are massively exposed to both US subprime and Eastern Europe bad debts.

Re the bit in bold:

A lot of people on HPC were genuinely in shock when the recent UK PSBR figs were released - but this is just because they don't realize how bad the equivalent figs are for some countries in in the Eurozone, and have been for many years now.

Watch this space.

[Pindar]

What I want to know is what's happened to EU funding.

It's a % of each nations tax take.

Logically it must have fallen off a cliff and the EU must be running out of money.

So where is the EU going to fund itself from, what projects has it cut so far?

You shouldn't worry, Britain is well placed to weather the downturn and can print more than enough money to keep everybody going. The city will save the day, being the hub for productive enterprise and all.

[interestrateripoff]

Just to clarify, the article refers specifically to the Eurozone, not to the larger EU.

However these nations help fund the EU.

When you consider what position the other non Eurozone states are in the EU institution itself must have a funding crisis.

I've been having a quick search and I can't find any info on what's happening to EU revenue.

[Trampa501]

But aren't the forecasters stating that British public debt as a proportion of GDP will soar to 100% ie even worse than 83.8% forecast here? So to say that the Euro is overvalued (against the pound, if not against other 'major currencies') based on this, is surely sentiment based?

Isn't it also the case that UK personal debt (mortgages, credit cards etc) is way above the Euro average? Unless someone can contradict these, I see no reason for the schadenfraude from the usual suspects regarding the Eurozone; the UK still appears to be in a worse mess.

[Deckard]

But aren't the forecasters stating that British public debt as a proportion of GDP will soar to 100% ie even worse than 83.8% forecast here? So to say that the Euro is overvalued (against the pound, if not against other 'major currencies') based on this, is surely sentiment based?

Isn't it also the case that UK personal debt (mortgages, credit cards etc) is way above the Euro average? Unless someone can contradict these, I see no reason for the schadenfraude from the usual suspects regarding the Eurozone; the UK still appears to be in a worse mess.

I refer you to this thread: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=117597

In the early 90's the Gross Public Debt/GDP ratio in Belgium and Italy was 140% and 120% respectively

OECD is forecasting Italy's GPD/GDP ratio to reach 115% again next year, up from 106% in 2008.

http://www.oecd.org/document/6/0,3343,en_2...1_1_1_1,00.html

Whatever economists may be forecasting for UK PSBR in a few years time, the fact is major countries in the Eurozone (Italy, Belgium, Greece) are already there, and have been for a long time.

You are correct on personal debt being worse in the UK - but to the extent that gordo is bailing out the feckless, it all goes back to public debt anyway.

Edited July 3, 2009 by VoteWithYourFeet