Altrincham/hale/halebarns

[Guest theboltonfury]

Well, in my opinion, I'd say anything roundabouts Hale/Bowden centres and the South side of Hale road is Hale/Bowden "proper", but it's only a relative term (i.e. max snob appeal.) Think Park Rd, Ashley Rd, South Downs Rd, etc. Hale "lower" (to me at least) is North Side of Hale Rd (which is no different to decent Timperley, as far as I'm concerned) and the extreme Eastern edge of Hale, i.e. East of Delaheys Rd, Thorley Lane, etc. Now there's nothing wrong with these "cheaper" areas as such, but I don't think you can separate them from the best parts of Sale or Timperley; other's seem to disagree, but I think that's the snob-appeal of Hale talking more than commonsense. I think you can live in just as nice an area (i.e. Wood Rd/Thorley lane in Timperley) and see your money go a lot further. Problem is every time I say that the Hale "snobs" jump the thread! Delahays Drive has always appeared a strange one to me: it ain't cheap, but it isn't a "high end" location; I'd use that type of money to position myself better elsewhere. The extreme Western edge of Bowden is also cheaper. A bit "boxy/new build", but a lot cheaper than Bowden proper. TBH, just flick around Rightmove for a day or two and you'll soon get an idea of the best locations due to the large variations in property prices (for similar sized dwellings.) I'd also say: check the traffic. Hale Rd itself would be a no-no for me, and some of the surrounding roads can also end up being "cut throughs", so be careful.

I think Hale Barns also takes too much stick on here. Again, it's the Hale snobs who paint it all with the same brush. South of Hale road, and between Hale and Hale Barns, there are some nice roads with quite expensive properties. If you want something a little quieter and away from Hale centre - which can be a pain at the weekend nighttime if you are a resident, then I think it offers a nice alternative. The Eastern side of Hale Barns out towards the motorway is cheaper, but I guess that's more because of the motorway and airport noise. Again, if you are renting, it's certainly worth a shot; not sure I'd buy that far out though.

TBH, I'd follow the advice I gave earlier in the thread and just rent; that will give you a good chance to look around and make up your own mind. And let the house prices drop further.. I worked in Knutsford last year (and the year before) and commuted via the motorway, through Hale/Hale Barns/Alty, and other routes depending on the traffic. It's never took me more than 30 minutes to get to Sale when I was popping to my mum's house for tea. In other words, unless you really, really must be right up the chuff of a particular Bar/Pub/Restaurant in Hale, you have lot's of choices and a still short commute to work.

Nomadd

he's right, but I still say that if I put you in the precinct of Hale Barns and didn't tell you where you were, you would be forgiven for thinking you had 10 minutes before you were mugged. The Co-op was the subject of an Armed Robbery a few weeks ago

I have come round to thinking that Hale is nice but no where near worth the premium. We have started scoping out Timperley, and some parts of Alti and been nicely surprised

[Nomadd]

...if I put you in the precinct of Hale Barns and didn't tell you where you were, you would be forgiven for thinking you had 10 minutes before you were mugged. The Co-op was the subject of an Armed Robbery a few weeks ago

You're getting too old and too soft, tbf. Remember, the one rule of Fight Club is you...

Nomadd

[Guest theboltonfury]

You're getting too old and too soft, tbf. Remember, the one rule of Fight Club is you...

Nomadd

I'm certainly getting too old. Hale Barns isn't that bad, I've just been there

[R K]

Have you STR, Red Kharma?

I'm taking some time to think-on all the points you made in both posts. Not because I outright disagree with you, although I do lean to that deflation and Nomadd's outlook - but you made some good points which add to my uncertainty.

It is a limited view, but my younger brother mixes with quite a few of the Hale crowd, with a number who have parents with mid to top-end quality homes in Hale. In most instances the children doing alright for themselves on their own bat.

There is a lot of wealth in Hale and I haven't picked up any in-distress signals from the what appear to be the wealthier families that we know. Quite a number who fit what you've described, of not having to sell, with no signs of struggling for money at all.

Intelligent wealth often values money and profitable opportunity. What about the opportunity to sell into a falling market in the balance sheet sense - downsize or rent - and buy back in later at a cheaper value? You wouldn't do that if you didn't expect quality Hale homes to be available in fair number at lower prices in the future though. Not if you expected the majority of owners to not move significantly on asking price throughout the crash years, happy to wait till whenever the balance sheet value has recovered. Deaths and other circumstances might require properties to be sold for price discovery.

Many of the families I get some reports on at the top-end are unlikely to sell to follow my theory. They seem to be more like what you have outlined, or not needing to sell and not having to accept a £50K lower offer - except I doubt that can remain true for every quality home-owner in Hale.

It's all been done to death Friday.

I've chucked in my 2p 'orth for the benefit of the OP.

Once the usual suspects start with the infantile chip on their shouldner snipes about Hale snobs and all that social ****** with I lose interest. I couldn't care less about who's got the latest Bentley and all that nonsense. I've been around old money and in the back of Bentleys since I was sucking on the teat - It's tedious and dull. They're just houses and cars. For some posters this seems to be a big swinging d1ck contest. I've no axe to grind at all. OP asked about areas and catchment areas and those are important issues to think about when buying a house particularly if you have school age children - I have a view on that and what may or may not unfold and that's it. Couldn't care less what anyone else thinks.

If people want to live in Sale, Hale Barns, Timperley or anywhere else then good for them. Plenty of people do. I hope they're very happy there.

[Nomadd]

Once the usual suspects start with the infantile chip on their shouldner snipes about Hale snobs and all that social ****** with I lose interest.

And yet you don't lose interest. You always return to post. And always with the same inverted snobbery in your posts. Whenever anyone mentions Sale/Alty/Timperley we have to put up with your replies of "well, it may be OK for them" type posts. Sad, really.

I couldn't care less about who's got the latest Bentley and all that nonsense.

Huh? Neither could anyone else. So maybe you should stop making such silly comments? After all, it is only you that makes them...

I've been around old money and in the back of Bentleys since I was sucking on the teat...

Wait a minute... You just said you couldn't care less about Bentley's, and yet here you are one sentence later claiming you've been riding around in them since you were a Small Troll. And there's the "old money" that you always seem to associate yourself with every post. As many of us pointed out to you last year: when are you actually going to do something for yourself, rather than just spend your life as a Great Pretender on the back of other people's coat tails? And as for "sucking", the only thing you've ever made clear is that you "suck" on the "old money" types you constantly attempt to associate yourself with.

Couldn't care less what anyone else thinks.

Pretty much sums you up. But then we knew all this last year, when you got blown out on the other thread...

If people want to live in Sale, Hale Barns, Timperley or anywhere else then good for them. Plenty of people do. I hope they're very happy there.

And there's the inverted snob, again.

But, yes, I'm sure they will be very happy living where they choose. I mean, the thread title did say "Altrincham/hale/halebarns"

Nomadd

EDIT: Added more smilies as I know you like them.

Edited May 9, 2009 by Nomadd

[R K]

Admission policy for Altrincham Boys Grammar for OP:-

Appears to be :

* Assessment

* Catchment

* Priority based on crow flies distance if over-subscribed

Thus, proximate location could (and I'm sure frequently does) end up a factor. Similar to most places then, but with an entrance exam.

http://www.agsb.co.uk/documents/2010%20Adm...d%20version.pdf

You'd need to check the alternatives if son turned out not to be admitted.

Bon chance.

[gratefulbear]

Hi Guys! Looks like this thread is becoming an update of the one from 6(?) months ago - complete with flaming

Just to put forward my opinion (and I am not so arrogant as to consider my opinion as fact) - The big thing that has changed since the last thread is that we have comically low interest rates (and will do for the short to medium term unless things change dramatically). Last year my position was that prices will have to revert to approx 2001ish levels - the question was whether we were going to get a short, sharp shock or long protracted stagnation. It now is almost certainly the latter. I can only go off what my neighbours/colleagues etc are experiencing but even the ones who might be considered to have stretched themselves a bit have been given a repreive since their mortgage payments are £100s less than they were. (Ironically fate has favoured the reckless!). I don't mix with the "flash" crowd but the ones I know of aren't really struggling with their mortgage - there seem to be a lot of people keeping their cars longer though!

I also need to redress the perception that Hale and Bowdon are filled with either "flash wannabes" or "old money". An awful lot of people are your normal mid-to-high end professionals who bought into the area when property (everywhere) was fairly cheap i.e. pre-1999. It's purely an accident of birth that a lot of the £1m-1.5m (2007 price) houses are owned by late 40/50 something proffessionals who paid 300-500k for these places 10-15 years ago. They're really not in any danger of becoming forced sellers unless interest rates rocketed wildly (as in the 90's). Similarly a lot of the mid-range of properties (500-1m at 2007 prices) tend to be owned by similar people in their mid30's/early 40's who bought late 90's early 00's - again not neccessarily with particularly large mortgages, and not really under pressure in this low-interest rate economy.

What is really telling though is that I don't know anyone who is even contemplating upsizing/downsizing. Most people appear to be playing "wait and see" - and are under no pressure to do anything other.

Before someone jumps down my throat, I an not saying prices in Hale & Bowdon will miraculously defy gravity, but as Red Kharma has stated there is a difference between the market value of houses being low, and there actually being a lot of houses on the market at cheap prices. Unless things change dramatically we are not going to be in the situation that apparently occurred in the 90's where there was a flood of good quality forced sales/repossessions - and when some people picked up great properties at real bargains. We're just not going to see mid 90's prices again. There is just going to be a gradual erosion of prices as the few people who need to sell come to the realization that they will have to accept the market value of their property.

The upshot is that people waiting to buy are either going to have to wait quite a while to call the bottom of the market - which will be hard to spot when the curve is shallow, or bite the bullet, negotiate hard and factor in the amount of downside they are comfortable with. (Obviously buying at 30% off peak price and then losing another 10% or so if going to be more palatable than buying at the peak).

[Guest theboltonfury]

Hi Guys! Looks like this thread is becoming an update of the one from 6(?) months ago - complete with flaming

Just to put forward my opinion (and I am not so arrogant as to consider my opinion as fact) - The big thing that has changed since the last thread is that we have comically low interest rates (and will do for the short to medium term unless things change dramatically). Last year my position was that prices will have to revert to approx 2001ish levels - the question was whether we were going to get a short, sharp shock or long protracted stagnation. It now is almost certainly the latter. I can only go off what my neighbours/colleagues etc are experiencing but even the ones who might be considered to have stretched themselves a bit have been given a repreive since their mortgage payments are £100s less than they were. (Ironically fate has favoured the reckless!). I don't mix with the "flash" crowd but the ones I know of aren't really struggling with their mortgage - there seem to be a lot of people keeping their cars longer though!

I also need to redress the perception that Hale and Bowdon are filled with either "flash wannabes" or "old money". An awful lot of people are your normal mid-to-high end professionals who bought into the area when property (everywhere) was fairly cheap i.e. pre-1999. It's purely an accident of birth that a lot of the £1m-1.5m (2007 price) houses are owned by late 40/50 something proffessionals who paid 300-500k for these places 10-15 years ago. They're really not in any danger of becoming forced sellers unless interest rates rocketed wildly (as in the 90's). Similarly a lot of the mid-range of properties (500-1m at 2007 prices) tend to be owned by similar people in their mid30's/early 40's who bought late 90's early 00's - again not neccessarily with particularly large mortgages, and not really under pressure in this low-interest rate economy.

What is really telling though is that I don't know anyone who is even contemplating upsizing/downsizing. Most people appear to be playing "wait and see" - and are under no pressure to do anything other.

Before someone jumps down my throat, I an not saying prices in Hale & Bowdon will miraculously defy gravity, but as Red Kharma has stated there is a difference between the market value of houses being low, and there actually being a lot of houses on the market at cheap prices. Unless things change dramatically we are not going to be in the situation that apparently occurred in the 90's where there was a flood of good quality forced sales/repossessions - and when some people picked up great properties at real bargains. We're just not going to see mid 90's prices again. There is just going to be a gradual erosion of prices as the few people who need to sell come to the realization that they will have to accept the market value of their property.

The upshot is that people waiting to buy are either going to have to wait quite a while to call the bottom of the market - which will be hard to spot when the curve is shallow, or bite the bullet, negotiate hard and factor in the amount of downside they are comfortable with. (Obviously buying at 30% off peak price and then losing another 10% or so if going to be more palatable than buying at the peak).

Good input. However, I would say that when you get discrepancies in prices between the same houses a mile apart (and neither in a scummy area) it leaves one area looking grossly overpriced, in this case Hale. £ bed in Timperley can be 175k, the same spec in Hale, 280k.

I do have a little dig about the folk in Hale, but it's pretty much firmly with my tongue in cheek. I'm only talking from experience and I like Hale a lot but some of the folk are incredibly ostentatious and if they have a Black Range Rover many (NOT ALL) will let you know it. Maybe I spend to much time in Costa Coffee and earwig too much. Having lived and worked in Alti for years I know plenty of people who consider Hale to be the equivalent of Nirvana and financially set themselves on fire to get there. I follow their progress not with perversion, just interest

I believe Hale is a lot more at risk than some think as I am sure (just what I think from the people I talk to) that there are an awful lot of people struggling to keep it together, but the wheels haven't come off yet. When this happens, if it does, Hale may not be the strong hold that some think

I am not trying to upset anyone by saying this, and over time we'll see. I agree fully though that it could well be a long drawn out price reduction process.

Let me state again, I like Hale alot. But do I like it twice as much as Alti, no - it's just not worth that in my opinion

[gratefulbear]

A few questions from someone who is relatively new to the area and probably doesn't appreciate the nuances of what is considered Hale "proper" and "wanabee" Hale.

Can some explain the perimeter roads of Hale proper? i.e. is it only the roads around the cafe/bars? What about further out like Hale Road towards Delahays Road, the estate where WellGreen Primary is situated and also Sandleigh Avenue/drive?

Is Halebarns the less prestigious brother of Hale? I've been down High Elm Road and it looks quite nice around there. Anyone live around there? Is it a pleasent place to live? How is Elm Ridge Primary considered?

This is one of my faves!

There has been quite a degree of "boundary creep" around Hale and Bowdon. I know someone who used to live round here in the 60's/70's and moved away; they found it very amusing that much of what used to be Altrincham is now classed as Hale i.e. some of the "Tree Roads" and others off Hale Rd. Similarly the Altrincham/Bowdon border has blurred somewhat.

When we talk about Hale proper I would consider the most "blue-chip" being the roads within walking distance of Hale Village - although obviously the roads off Arthog and further up are nice but not within that criteria. Once you go north of Hale Rd (Moss Lane/Grove Lane/Delahays Rd and off-shoots), it is much more patchy but this is where I'm not really sure if it's Hale anyway (although what is it when you go up Grove Lane, it's not really Timperley either?). Before someone accuses me of snobbery, there's nothing wrong with these area, but they contain a very different kind of property and lose a lot in conveniance and quaintness. But in fairness they are quite a bit cheaper - as seen in the examples given earlier in the thread. Similarly once you go east of Chapel Lane in Hale Barns, you are out of the desirable area.

Most of Bowdon is pretty desirable. The area around the bottom of Vicarage Lane is perhaps the weakest part - but in fairness they've improved it quite a bit over the last few years.

I fully agree that Hale Barns is where perhaps you are over-paying the most for the privilege of the address. I couldn't tell you exactly where Hale ends and Hale Barns starts. The roads on the Hale/Hale Barns border are some of the best in the area - think Hill Top, Hawley Lane, Broad Lane, Carrwood etc - but I think (with the exception of Carrwood) they are generally considered Hale. Other than Brooks Drive, Hasty Lane and the houses along Hale Rd itself, most of Hale Barns is pretty mediocre 30's-60's stuff - some of which has been tarted up a bit. What you don't get is the leafy roads or the ability to walk to nice bars and restaurants. Prices do reflect this compared with Hale or Bowdon, but as has been pointed out already, you have to ask yourself whether it would be better to find something in one of the better parts of Sale or Timperley. (I don't really know Bramhall well, but I understand it has the same relationship with Alderley Edge and Prestbury that Timperley has with Hale and Bowdon i.e. next step down the ladder but possibley more "bang for buck". Because of work I have never considered Wilmslow and it's surroundings as it is far less convenient for the motorway network and commuting)

[gratefulbear]

Good input. However, I would say that when you get discrepancies in prices between the same houses a mile apart (and neither in a scummy area) it leaves one area looking grossly overpriced, in this case Hale. £ bed in Timperley can be 175k, the same spec in Hale, 280k.

Missed your reply while typing my other post!

I guess the big question is how much of a premium you are prepared to pay for a Hale address?

I would agree with you that you will often get more "bang for your buck" in Timperley compared with Hale. Certainly at todays (still) inflated prices. If the prices were halved e.g. 90K and 140K that might be a bit more interesting?

What I didn't say before is that I don't know any first time buyers who bought e.g. Terrace on Tree Rds for top dollar 1-2 years ago. These people might be feeling a little bruised at the moment - these were going for silly money at one point. Notwithstanding the help the low interest rates will be giving them, the negative equity must be stinging somewhat.

[Nomadd]

Hi Guys! Looks like this thread is becoming an update of the one from 6(?) months ago - complete with flaming

Would we have it any other way?

...and I am not so arrogant as to consider my opinion as fact.

I don't think anyone on the thread thinks their opinion is fact. We all know it's a waiting/guessing game; we just disagree when/where the "end point" will be.

At present, I can only really go off the listings - some of which I posted - showing fairly hefty reductions for Hale/Hale Barns/Bowden/etc. on RM/Primelocation/etc. The "high end" (£1-2 mill.) has seen some fairly large reductions in the past 6 months. The "stickiness" of prices last year seems to have finally broken down in Oct./Nov. Now we are in the silly season of Spring, I don't think we'll see much more action until later on in the year. But when we do, my guess is that it will be downwards once more. I think it's this realisation that's keeping many people out of the property market, whether buyer or seller.

The mid-range £500k-£800k also seems to be stagnant. Nearly all the properties which we debated a year ago are still listed for sale, most with around 10-15% off, which in my opinion doesn't even to begin to reflect the true state of the market. At this price point, the "long drawn out" road to the bottom seems to be the most appropriate description.

With the potential for even more unemployment and high inflation over the next 2-5 years, it's way too early to know how things will pad out. All I will say is I agree with the posts you made about the now 40/50 somethings paying substantially less for their properties. Does this mean we will go back to those prices? Certainly not. But does it mean the silly prices still being asked are maintainable? Again, almost certainly not. I'm still sticking my neck out with 30-40% declines from Oct. 2007 across the board. We'll see.

Cheers,

Nomadd

[gratefulbear]

The mid-range £500k-£800k also seems to be stagnant. Nearly all the properties which we debated a year ago are still listed for sale, most with around 10-15% off, which in my opinion doesn't even to begin to reflect the true state of the market. At this price point, the "long drawn out" road to the bottom seems to be the most appropriate description.

With the potential for even more unemployment and high inflation over the next 2-5 years, it's way too early to know how things will pad out. All I will say is I agree with the posts you made about the now 40/50 somethings paying substantially less for their properties. Does this mean we will go back to those prices? Certainly not. But does it mean the silly prices still being asked are maintainable? Again, almost certainly not. I'm still sticking my neck out with 30-40% declines from Oct. 2007 across the board. We'll see.

The fact that properties have been sat on the market for a year or so just illustrates what an impasse we have reached.

The problem is that although most people accept that the long-term market value of properties is significantly lower than the 2007 high, without the economic conditions precipitating a significant number of forced sales, they can't bring themselves to lower asking prices to a realistic level. I suspect the 40/50somethings with small mortgages are also quite used to sitting on a large pile of (unrealised) equity, and similarly not willing to let that go. Hence no movement. Interest rates may not stay low forever though!

It's interesting that some of the properties you posted links to are developments. I have been watching the Park Rd and the Hale Rd houses. Neither are in my opinion particular great places. They are both "large house/small plot" and both pretty close to the main road. The original asking prices were quite frankly laughable. And to think they put up the price of the Hale Rd house I think they would have been pushing it even in 2007. You have to say their timing isn't the best. There may well be some bargains to be had from developers in trouble.

Also, with quite a few people waiting to come back into the market, it wouldn't suprise me though if there is enough pent-up demand to create a "sucker bounce" followed by further decline. Ironically a recovery in the economy could trigger this.

[Nomadd]

The fact that properties have been sat on the market for a year or so just illustrates what an impasse we have reached.

True, but there is some more "realistic" - although I'll qualify that below - pricing around the newer listed stuff (as well as reductions on the older stuff.) Not really sure where the pressure is coming from? Like you say, there may be those who can "hold out", but I often wonder how long EAs will have patience with such vendors. I mean, a RM listing isn't cheap, nor is running/staffing an EAs office, so I wonder how long EAs can keep up with the spend on these "long listed" properties..?

This is a good example of a recent listing: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...tyType%3Dhouses

Now, it's listed at £775k, so let's call it £700k max with a 90% asking offer. You remember exact same type of house in the exact same location coming on over a year ago and sitting there for a year at £925k? The one above seems to have an extra bedroom over it too. So, I guess there is some realism creeping back to the market. ...Until you start looking on Nethouseprices and see that the one on last year didn't sell (as far as I can see) and the highest price ever achieved seems to be £675k in 2005. The average for 2001-2004 is more like £400k for Kensington Gardens (all detached), so I guess that's where I'm coming from when I look at the current prices (even following their downward adjustments) and call them still hopelessly unrealistic.

Here's another that's crept on: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...auction%3Dfalse

And another: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...es%26index%3D10

Both of those would have been impossible to find at such prices a year ago. Still, a flick on Nethouseprices still shows them way too high, so the waiting game continues - for me at least.

I'd be interested in your opinions good/bad on the above mentioned properties. Also, links to anything else in the 3/4/5 bed detached that you think is a reasonable looking property at a similar price if you've spotted any.

Cheers,

Nomadd

[R K]

Snip....... There may well be some bargains to be had from developers in trouble.

There are quite a few half finished single plot developments being publically marketed to "either private buyers or developers". I've also seen "fixed price" and similar......often through multiple agents, and these idiotically priced 3 bed flats for £2.5m and so on. "last available" blah blah.

These guys will soon be burning if they're not already. That's where the value is likely to be in due course imo as the banks take them down.

As you, I've spotted the 'flippers' who have added an extension, kitchen, new driveway and a few hundred £Ks to the price. They're fairly easy to spot and don't look good value to me. I imagine they're more likely to be forced sellers at some point. I've followed several which are now apparently rented, but which weren't advertised as rentals, at least not publically. Not sure what's going on there.....

I'm tending towards a bottom for practical purposes in nominal terms probably coming in towards the late summer/autumn along with increasing QE and the lower £ it then bumping along the bottom and another 5-10% perhaps in real (inflation adjusted) terms over the next year or two. After that - anyone's guess.

[gratefulbear]

Now, it's listed at £775k, so let's call it £700k max with a 90% asking offer. You remember exact same type of house in the exact same location coming on over a year ago and sitting there for a year at £925k? The one above seems to have an extra bedroom over it too. So, I guess there is some realism creeping back to the market. ...Until you start looking on Nethouseprices and see that the one on last year didn't sell (as far as I can see) and the highest price ever achieved seems to be £675k in 2005. The average for 2001-2004 is more like £400k for Kensington Gardens (all detached), so I guess that's where I'm coming from when I look at the current prices (even following their downward adjustments) and call them still hopelessly unrealistic.

This is actually a crucial point wrt Hale/Bowdon prices. If you look at any of the websites tracking actual sold prices, a lot of the properties that were being marketed in 2007 did not sell, or went for quite a bit below asking price. (In some ways the over-optimistic asking prices have perpetuated the belief that property is really expensive in the area). The odd one that did (plus the odd bling-pad that went for £2m+) will have increased the average sold price on a relatively low volume - which is of course the problem with any average price statistic, they don't reflect the relative volume of properties.

The examples you just gave are interesting. I agree that 18months ago they would have been on much higher - but problably not sold. Kensington Gardens and Heald Close are funny in that although the houses are not that great to look at and not particularly spacious, they are in extremely good locations i.e. easy walking dsitance to Alt/Hale and nice quiet streets. I think such roads are always going to look a little overpriced (and effectively command a premium) compared to other similar one for those reasons - but they need to drop about another £200k. (I actually remember looking at Kensington Gardens back in 2000 - and yes they were about £400k - which seemed incredibly expensive at the time!). The one on Vicarage Lane has no such advatantage and is way overpriced - from the photos it looks like a possible development.

[gratefulbear]

There are quite a few half finished single plot developments being publically marketed to "either private buyers or developers". I've also seen "fixed price" and similar......often through multiple agents, and these idiotically priced 3 bed flats for £2.5m and so on. "last available" blah blah.

These guys will soon be burning if they're not already. That's where the value is likely to be in due course imo as the banks take them down.

As you, I've spotted the 'flippers' who have added an extension, kitchen, new driveway and a few hundred £Ks to the price. They're fairly easy to spot and don't look good value to me. I imagine they're more likely to be forced sellers at some point. I've followed several which are now apparently rented, but which weren't advertised as rentals, at least not publically. Not sure what's going on there.....

I'm tending towards a bottom for practical purposes in nominal terms probably coming in towards the late summer/autumn along with increasing QE and the lower £ it then bumping along the bottom and another 5-10% perhaps in real (inflation adjusted) terms over the next year or two. After that - anyone's guess.

I think there's got to be a few developers sitting on a real time-bomb at the moment. Again low interest rates must ease things a bit, but commercial loans often aren't particularly favourable. I can think of a couple of largish developments in the area which look quite vunerable.

You wonder whether someone going in with an extremely cheeky low-ball offer might be able to grab a bargain off one of these guys. (Much bettter than trying the same with some semi-retired accountant who was considering downsizing but is quite happy to stay where he is anyway).

[Venger]

I'm tending towards a bottom for practical purposes in nominal terms probably coming in towards the late summer/autumn along with increasing QE and the lower £ it then bumping along the bottom and another 5-10% perhaps in real (inflation adjusted) terms over the next year or two. After that - anyone's guess.

They'll really need to go in to overdrive with that QE to make any difference, won't they?

£150 billion of QE, where the total value of UK private housing stock has lost approaching a £Trillion since peak.

As well so many other collapsing values in the commercial property sector, and the financial sector.

[Venger]

Now, it's listed at £775k, so let's call it £700k max with a 90% asking offer. You remember exact same type of house in the exact same location coming on over a year ago and sitting there for a year at £925k? The one above seems to have an extra bedroom over it too. So, I guess there is some realism creeping back to the market. ...Until you start looking on Nethouseprices and see that the one on last year didn't sell (as far as I can see) and the highest price ever achieved seems to be £675k in 2005.

The Kensington Gardens house, or very similar one at £925K a year ago, was pushed in value by the new buyers from 2004 through to 2007, paying higher prices each month for other houses on other roads in Hale.

Now those values are being wiped away.

We know that is how values rise. They rise in market-value due to those buying houses, buying at ever higher prices. When they do so, all homes in the area rise in value, due to the nature of the market.

2005, when Mr.X around the corner sells his house to a new buyer for £40K more than prices on that road have achieved in the past, it pushes up the values, or worth, for everyone else who already owns a home in the locality.

I'll have to check with someone if I can reveal more without compromising them, as I can't google-find any results from the little I was told about the case and the conviction (last year and I was never told the names of those involved), but Hale has seen at least some instances of mortgage fraud during the boom (multiple properties). Buyers buying at higher prices, pushing up values for all other owners.

Not claiming that makes a great deal of difference overall, but it is only people willing and able to buy at ever higher prices that pushes up values for all other home owners.

[R K]

I think there's got to be a few developers sitting on a real time-bomb at the moment. Again low interest rates must ease things a bit, but commercial loans often aren't particularly favourable. I can think of a couple of largish developments in the area which look quite vunerable.

You wonder whether someone going in with an extremely cheeky low-ball offer might be able to grab a bargain off one of these guys. (Much bettter than trying the same with some semi-retired accountant who was considering downsizing but is quite happy to stay where he is anyway).

Yes, precisely my point. It is actually very difficult finding the actual sale price for many of these redevelopments. The asking prices are mark-to-fantasy, but the one's that have sold over the last couple of years I've been unable to find sold prices for. So, original house/sold plot price is there but nothing subsequently in most cases.

Agree with you about the Heald Rd. house. There's something not right imo about the Kensington Gardens house. Vicarage Lane one makes my point about lack of quality choice I think but it's still in catchment area for the schools, huge driver for this area.

[Nomadd]

The Kensington Gardens house, or very similar one at £925K a year ago, was pushed in value by the new buyers from 2004 through to 2007, paying higher prices each month for other houses on other roads in Hale.

Now those values are being wiped away.

True, but then I think Nethouseprices (and gratefulbear's comments, knowing the area well as a buyer over the years) need to be factored in as well: most of these houses never did sell at the crazy inflated prices being asked. That doesn't surprise me. I guess what does surprise me is the number of EAs in the area who are prepared to still offer homes at near 2007 prices (say, minus 10%) and do so for extraordinarily long periods of time. Seems to be a crazy way to run a business to me. Maybe they survive on the commission of the odd mug who is prepared to pay an extortionate amount for a property? I've no idea. Or maybe they survive on the commission from rental properties, as that's where most of these non-seller properties seem to end up? I guess we'll never know: EAs aren't known at the best of times for their openness and honesty, so I doubt one will log on to HPC and divulge their secrets!

Aside: We did get that EA from Thornley Groves post a little bit a few weeks ago, but even he admitted that it was only the bottom end of the market - under £275k - that was moving. Mind you, that was mainly Timperley. The cheaper detached property he listed in Hale does seem to have shifted, though, or at least it isn't on RM anymore. Of course, now the mini Spring Bounce is over, he seems to have gone quiet again.

I guess what we can say - at this point in time - is that the last 6 months or so have finally started to show the cracks beginning to appear. I await the next year or two with curiosity, knowing for sure that they'll be a fair amount of entertainment to come. The HPC story has a long way to go yet before we can write the final chapter.

Cheers,

Nomadd

[gratefulbear]

I guess what does surprise me is the number of EAs in the area who are prepared to still offer homes at near 2007 prices (say, minus 10%) and do so for extraordinarily long periods of time. Seems to be a crazy way to run a business to me. Maybe they survive on the commission of the odd mug who is prepared to pay an extortionate amount for a property? I've no idea. Or maybe they survive on the commission from rental properties, as that's where most of these non-seller properties seem to end up? I guess we'll never know: EAs aren't known at the best of times for their openness and honesty, so I doubt one will log on to HPC and divulge their secrets!

This is what really puzzles me. Surely the basic principles of business dictate that in order for EA's to maximise their income stream, it makes sense to accept a lower level of commision for an increase in turnover of properties e.g. instead of a house taking a year to sell at £600k, is it not better to sell the house at £500k if it will go in 6 months (and then hopefully sell another in the nexxt 6 months)? Within reason, is quick turnover of properties always better?

Obviously it is not as simple as that, otherwise prices would be much more elastic (if that's the right term - can't remember my economic terms). I suspect that although we mainly blame the EA's, the vendors are also at fault. I think it's human nature to be quite greedy, and years of house price inflation bring the worst out in people's attitudes and expectations. I guess that in above example if the vendor has two EA's giving valuations of £600k and £500k, they would almost certainly go with the former. Even if they believe the £600k is overpriced, they won't be able to resist taking a punt at that price in case some mug is willing to bite.

Obviously when there are a large number of forced sellers, this no longer applies and both vendors and EA's have to accept the lower prices.

[van hoogstraten]

My mum lives in one of the bigger houses on Bower Road in Hale - my folks bought their house there in 1982 when it was a bit shabbier than it is now - and paid around $80k for it I think.

I went to Alty Grammar and still keep in touch with a few of my mates from there & other schools in the area. Everyone went away to study and no one has moved back. Maybe on account of the silly house prices and maybe because the area is perhaps a little artificial and dull.

Around where my mum lives a lot of the homeowners are either in or approaching retirement and therefore have no reason to sell. No one new has moved in (round Bower Road/Warwick Drive anyway) for years.

If I ever felt the need to move back I'd look at the area around Byron/Bold Street (in between Ashley road and Hale Road) or round Stamford Park.

[Nomadd]

Obviously when there are a large number of forced sellers, this no longer applies and both vendors and EA's have to accept the lower prices.

Or when there are zero buyers. Remember, it takes two to tango.

I think the crumbling that's started to take place since last Autumn is telling. But, like you say, there's no getting away from human greed; vendors always want to cling to the EA with the highest valuation.

But then you get another day like today, where BT shed 15,000 jobs, and even the CML starts to warn new mortgagees over rises in interest rates in the future. It points, IMHO, to a pretty grim picture going forward. The problem is - and it's been debated to death on the main forum over the years - is that most people in the UK are extremely naive when it comes to financial matters. The housing market over recent years is a good example of that. I think the long, hard fight to the bottom is probably the most likely outcome (as we agreed yesterday) for the next 2-3 years. Still, I'm not completely factoring out some sudden "wake up" from vendors, particularly if the EAs start to see themselves going under.

Still, at least there are lots of decent, cheap rental properties out there. With the way the jobs market is at the moment, I'm more than happy to stay out of property for now.

Nomadd

[gratefulbear]

My mum lives in one of the bigger houses on Bower Road in Hale - my folks bought their house there in 1982 when it was a bit shabbier than it is now - and paid around $80k for it I think.

It's funny you mention this. As I said in a previous post, I had quite an intersting chat with someone who used to live around here in the 60's and 70's. Apparently it was certainly not the prestigious location it is now - and was priced accordingly.

To be honest though, you can tell by the type of property that was built in each era i.e. there was obviously money around here in around the turn of the previous century when a lot of the large Victorian houses in Hale and Bowdon were built and indeed it was prestigious (if quite sparsely populated) then. However if you look at what was built post WW1 up til probably the early 80's, it was pretty much commodity housing. Most of Hale Barns was bungalows/dormas, and even the new stuff in Hale itself and Bowdon is pretty boxy and utilitarian. There was even council housing at the bottom of Bowdon and the Timperley side of Hale. (Not that there's anything wrong with council housing, but it shows the area was not that exclusive in that period). Also the type of property that makes up Hale Village and the upper part of Bowdon (i.e. Georgian/Victorian/Edwardian) was apparently quite out of vogue in that period. People wanted characterless boxes! It's only really the late 80's onwards stuff that you would consider high-end developments expected to make up an exclusive area.

Apparently everyone who was "aspirational" wanted to live in Prestbury and Alderley Edge in this middle period, Hale and Bowdon were seen as a step down.

This is of course just one person's perspective, but it makes sense to me.

(Forgot to say though, £80k was still pretty big bucks for a house in 1982!)

Edited May 14, 2009 by gratefulbear

[R K]

It's funny you mention this. As I said in a previous post, I had quite an intersting chat with someone who used to live around here in the 60's and 70's. Apparently it was certainly not the prestigious location it is now - and was priced accordingly.

To be honest though, you can tell by the type of property that was built in each era i.e. there was obviously money around here in around the turn of the previous century when a lot of the large Victorian houses in Hale and Bowdon were built and indeed it was prestigious (if quite sparsely populated) then. However if you look at what was built post WW1 up til probably the early 80's, it was pretty much commodity housing. Most of Hale Barns was bungalows/dormas, and even the new stuff in Hale itself and Bowdon is pretty boxy and utilitarian. There was even council housing at the bottom of Bowdon and the Timperley side of Hale. (Not that there's anything wrong with council housing, but it shows the area was not that exclusive in that period). Also the type of property that makes up Hale Village and the upper part of Bowdon (i.e. Georgian/Victorian/Edwardian) was apparently quite out of vogue in that period. People wanted characterless boxes! It's only really the late 80's onwards stuff that you would consider high-end developments expected to make up an exclusive area.

Apparently everyone who was "aspirational" wanted to live in Prestbury and Alderley Edge in this middle period, Hale and Bowdon were seen as a step down.

This is of course just one person's perspective, but it makes sense to me.

(Forgot to say though, £80k was still pretty big bucks for a house in 1982!)

Van Hoogstraten has made an excellent point about the demographic mix. i.e. due to the nature of much of the housing there is a very low availability of first time buyer housing and the family houses tend to be large Victorian/Edwardian with the post 60s developments later, which are also mostly family type. Over the last 10 years some of the larger individual houses on, for instance St. Margarets road and around the Devisdale have been converted into flats, OO and rental, but again, I would suggest the age profile is often 40s upwards and retired. So, any forced sellers are more than likely going to be due to age related illnes/demise, and with longevity increasing we're probably not quite at that point, although I can see it becoming more prevalent over the next decade onwards.

There is also the issue of positioning as regards green belt which at present is constrained towards the M56 to the south, which, apart from some land released around 10 years ago, has meant much of the development hasn't been additional capacity, it has been re-development of older stock.

Similar thing appears to have happened around Wilmsow, Prestbury, Alderley Edge where the footballer type homes were on existing plots, and a large number of flats were on the site of the old Mount Carmel School (?) for instance.

I'd disagree about council estates - Prestbury has quite a large (former?) council estate within walking distance of the village and of course backs right up against the sprawling mess that is Macclesfield where much of the greenbelt development over the last 20 years has taken place and Alderley edge has quite a good mix of terraced stuff near the cricket ground and round the back roads.

As for why EAs don't lower prices, I guess it's what their punters are instructing them to do. As you have pointed out, sellers who aren't forced (so that exludes all the debt-laded developers) are perhaps waiting to see what happens. It's not really their problem if their EA doesn't eat.

I'm starting to think lower interest rates are going to stick around for longer than I first thought, and we're going to see this QE and macro-prudential monetary policy that the BOE keep banging on about, and fiscal policy coming more into play over the coming years. Another 6 months and I think we're pretty well done for the more desirable areas as people try to use the narrowed gap to move up. So far it has unfolded exactly as I thought it would and posted on here 18 months ago.

Edited May 14, 2009 by Red Kharma