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Van Hoogstraten has made an excellent point about the demographic mix. i.e. due to the nature of much of the housing there is a very low availability of first time buyer housing and the family houses tend to be large Victorian/Edwardian with the post 60s developments later, which are also mostly family type. Over the last 10 years some of the larger individual houses on, for instance St. Margarets road and around the Devisdale have been converted into flats, OO and rental, but again, I would suggest the age profile is often 40s upwards and retired. So, any forced sellers are more than likely going to be due to age related illnes/demise, and with longevity increasing we're probably not quite at that point, although I can see it becoming more prevalent over the next decade onwards.

Yes, if we take economic factors out of the equation, the demographics would predict a stagnation of local market over the next 5-10 years.

As I have said previously, a lot of £1m+ houses are owned by people in their 50's/60's who have been there for quite a while i.e. mid 90's or earlier. Since they are probably financially secure, and "at the top of the food-chain" for the local area, they are not in any hurry to move. In fact (as Nomadd says) the most like strain on their finances is their 20-something kids. However as they get older, they are not going to want the hassle and expense of maintaining a large property (This especially applies to Hale where most of the larger semi's and detached are pretty old - like Bower Rd). But, I would agree that we are not really at that point just yet - the baby-boomers are only just coming up to retirement and are still pretty sprightly. (Not to mention that since houses aren't selling at the moment, there is a tendancy to wait-and-see if prices recover). It wouldn't surprise me if we see a lot of people wanting to trade down in another 5-10 years. (The problem for me is that in another 10 years if these sort of houses become relatively cheap, I'll be getting on a bit myself and would question whether such large high-maintenance properties are sensible - but again it's down to an accident of birth; it might well benefit the now 20/30-somethings who will be ready to trade up in another 10 years).

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But, I would agree that we are not really at that point just yet - the baby-boomers are only just coming up to retirement and are still pretty sprightly. (Not to mention that since houses aren't selling at the moment, there is a tendancy to wait-and-see if prices recover). It wouldn't surprise me if we see a lot of people wanting to trade down in another 5-10 years. (The problem for me is that in another 10 years if these sort of houses become relatively cheap, I'll be getting on a bit myself and would question whether such large high-maintenance properties are sensible - but again it's down to an accident of birth; it might well benefit the now 20/30-somethings who will be ready to trade up in another 10 years).

Good points and I agree about the baby-boomers only just coming up to retirement.

It wouldn't surprise me either if more owners want to downsize in 5 to 10 years, and understand the dilemma on whether to trade up to a larger home if by that time you're in your late 40s, 50s.

The current trade-up market for luxury homes is also impacted by those who don't want to risk their equity in a larger, luxury home. To use their savings or take a mortgage on top in order to do so. Who are feel it makes more sense to not stretch themselves and stay in property they own outright or which is affordable. Especially with economic conditions being difficult. Or maybe I'm wrong and there is a lot of trade up money about.

You are wrong to claim houses aren't selling. They are, and for lower prices than in previous months and years. The tendency to wait-and-see if prices recover, doesn't lock in value for anyone waiting, when there are other houses selling at lower prices every month and year.

I just hope it won't take the 5 to 10 years you suggest, until values become relatively cheap.

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You are wrong to claim houses aren't selling. They are, and for lower prices than in previous months and years. The tendency to wait-and-see if prices recover, doesn't lock in value for anyone waiting, when there are other houses selling at lower prices every month and year.

Exactly, and the Kensington Gardens properties I mentioned are good examples of this - although in those cases they haven't sold! :) As I pointed out, at gratefulbear was good enough to qualify from his own experiences, most properties are still insanely overpriced. And we aren't talking "top end" stuff here, just merely middle tier. History (2001-2004) gives a fair indication of the true worth of these properties, by then them already having benefited from the post '95 "bounce back" for nearly 10 years. Those prices reflect a 400-450k asking price, not the £775k (down from £925k!) we are seeing at present.

I've just done a search on nethouseprices for Hale and it shows only 13 sales so far this year. And get this, the average price of those sales is around the £250k mark! This agrees with the feedback from the Thornley Groves EA. And that data seems to reflect what I am seeing: the only stuff moving in Hale now is at the bottom end of the market, and even then only if it's cheap, as you pointed out in your post above. It would seem that those ever lengthening pages of properties unsold on Rightmove/etc. is set to continue. :)

Nomadd

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You are wrong to claim houses aren't selling. They are, and for lower prices than in previous months and years. The tendency to wait-and-see if prices recover, doesn't lock in value for anyone waiting, when there are other houses selling at lower prices every month and year.

I just hope it won't take the 5 to 10 years you suggest, until values become relatively cheap.

I agree that the "wait-and-see" strategy is actually the wrong position to take if prices are falling - it's better to trade down when prices are still relatively high. However, a lot of people are still irrationally bullish about house prices and think that we are now at the bottom of the market - so they may be expecting prices to rise again.

I think that in order to prices to bottom out quickly we would need a rise in inflation/interest rates/local unemployment to put more people in the position of having to sell. Even thought prices are lower (as Nomadd said), volumes are very low at the moment.

Edited by gratefulbear
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I've just done a search on nethouseprices for Hale and it shows only 13 sales so far this year. And get this, the average price of those sales is around the £250k mark! This agrees with the feedback from the Thornley Groves EA. And that data seems to reflect what I am seeing: the only stuff moving in Hale now is at the bottom end of the market, and even then only if it's cheap, as you pointed out in your post above. It would seem that those ever lengthening pages of properties unsold on Rightmove/etc. is set to continue. :)

Nomadd

No clearing = no price discovery, except at bottom end and of lower quality.

Same pattern as 89/92 and exactly as predicted in fact.

You make my point perfectly.

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No clearing = no price discovery, except at bottom end and of lower quality.

Same pattern as 89/92 and exactly as predicted in fact.

You make my point perfectly.

You are getting yourself confused. Again. :)

Please see the endless threads on the main forum covering this "no sale = no market" silliness. ...And it's the second time on this thread I've mentioned that. :)

The fact that there has been "no clearing" makes it perfectly clear where prices are and are heading.

What we now have in Hale (finally) is considerable movement (downwards) in both upper and mid tier properties. But they are still failing to sell. So the chase to the bottom continues. As myself, gratefulbear and others have pointed out, this is hardly surprising, based on current pricing versus, say, 2004 pricing. If you look on Nethouseprices for Hale during 2008, there is a much stronger and larger mix of property sales across all price ranges; the current pricing trend for the area is actually quite alarming - unless you are looking to buy in the future and don't have anything to sell.

You "predicted" last year that Hale was essentially "immune, except for a small blip" as the "old money" would prop up prices. That has turned out to be false. You then panicked and changed your "prediction" to "upper end only". That also turned out to be false. You then claimed "New Developments only". That also turned out to be false. Well, at least your "predictions" are consistent, I'll hand you that. :) ...And it's the second time on this thread I've mentioned your "predictions". :)

89 to 92 is a 3 year period. The HPC in Hale really didn't get kick-started until Oct./Nov. last year (i.e. 2009), so it's a little early to come jumping in on this thread with these constant claims of "I was right/Just as I predicted." As myself and gratefulbear pointed out earlier in this thread, one should not confuse arrogance with fact. :)

Fact: House prices for all properties in the area are still significantly higher than those of 2004.

Fact: The UK economy is now in a much worse state than it was last year. Or the year before.

Fact: The number of sales, and the average price of those sales, is alarmingly low for Hale for the first quarter of this year.

Fact: There are just as many properties - across all price brackets - available in Hale now as there were in 2008 or 2007.

Fact: High and Mid tier properties are proving nigh impossible to sell in the area at present. Unless, of course, deeply discounted.

Fact: Mortgage rates are high, even though the BOE rate is low.

Fact: Mortgage rates are better, but still high, even for those with substantial deposits.

Fact: As we move forward through the next few years, interest rates - as well as taxation - will increase dramatically.

Fact: The younger age demographic is completely priced out of the housing market. Not a good sign.

Fact: Compared to 89/92, the income/mortgage ratio is today is appalling for buyers.

And yet you claim "the bottom will be reached in Hale in 6 months time due to QE"? Huh? We seem to be drifting back to your EA-style posts of last year... :)

Still, let's not waste more thread space covering the same old ground and your constantly changing "predictions". :) Let us instead do what you have suggested above: wait a 3 year period for a clearer picture to emerge. I personally don't think we'll have to wait that long: the changes are already happening now.

Cheers,

Nomadd

Ps. Just for you, as you said last year you would never respond to my posts again: :):):)

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I moved to Hale last September from London and I currently renting on one of the "Tree Roads" (if this is real Hale of course!).

Like most of you, I am looking to buy a family home - a 3 or 4 bed place will do, with a decent garden.

I am astonished at the lack of downward movement in prices and the seller's stand off is in full flow at the moment. Property Bee confirms that many sellers will not lower their prices after 18 months.

I firmly believe that this is due to demographics and the financial profile of sellers (as well articulated in ealrier posts).

I am prepared to be patient but not forever!

BTW, the houses on the Tree Road I live have all sold since being placed on the market this year. They have, generally, been priced lower than peak but I think it proves that a market does exist for "cheaper" properties.

Edited by BlackSwan
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I moved to Hale last September from London and I currently renting on one of the "Tree Roads" (if this is real Hale of course!).

Like most of you, I am looking to buy a family home - a 3 or 4 bed place will do, with a decent garden.

I am astonished at the lack of downward movement in prices and the seller's stand off is in full flow at the moment. Property Bee confirms that many sellers will not lower their prices after 18 months.

I firmly believe that this is due to demographics and the financial profile of sellers (as well articulated in ealrier posts).

I am prepared to be patient but not forever!

BTW, the houses on the Tree Road I live have all sold since being placed on the market this year. They have, generally, been priced lower than peak but I think it proves that a market does exist for "cheaper" properties.

too true. To me it highlights that I need to find somewhere else to buy as Hale is just not worth it IMO

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too true. To me it highlights that I need to find somewhere else to buy as Hale is just not worth it IMO

But where? I've done a "click to view location" on all of the links of Sold properties in Hale for 2009 on Nethouseprices. Most of these, as we've discussed, have been at the "cheaper" end of the market, i.e., ~£250k, so far. TBH, some of the locations of these mainly 3 bed semi's don't seem too bad if you are looking for something cheaper in Hale, i.e. they aren't all in the "roughest" locations. The problem you are going to face at present is that any "decent" part of Sale or Timperley or Alty is going to set you back just as much. The pricing problem isn't just restricted to Hale. The idea of a £150k decent house in a decent location in any of these areas was always going to be a long shot, IMHO. 10-15 years ago, maybe. But not now, and probably not ever. :(

The "stand-off", "dead cat bounce", "sucker's rally" has been heavily debated on the main forum. If you are a believer that that is what is currently happening in the UK housing market - I am - then it pays just to stay out of the market for a year or more. If not, well, you'll have to deal with current pricing.

If anyone else on the thread gets a chance, it might be worth having a look through the Sold's on Nethouseprices and giving an opinion on some of those locations/prices for Hale in 2009.

Nomadd

Ps. My apologies if your budget was more than £150k! :)

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You are getting yourself confused. Again. :)

Please see the endless threads on the main forum covering this "no sale = no market" silliness. ...And it's the second time on this thread I've mentioned that. :)

The fact that there has been "no clearing" makes it perfectly clear where prices are and are heading.

What we now have in Hale (finally) is considerable movement (downwards) in both upper and mid tier properties. But they are still failing to sell. So the chase to the bottom continues. As myself, gratefulbear and others have pointed out, this is hardly surprising, based on current pricing versus, say, 2004 pricing. If you look on Nethouseprices for Hale during 2008, there is a much stronger and larger mix of property sales across all price ranges; the current pricing trend for the area is actually quite alarming - unless you are looking to buy in the future and don't have anything to sell.

You "predicted" last year that Hale was essentially "immune, except for a small blip" as the "old money" would prop up prices. That has turned out to be false. You then panicked and changed your "prediction" to "upper end only". That also turned out to be false. You then claimed "New Developments only". That also turned out to be false. Well, at least your "predictions" are consistent, I'll hand you that. :) ...And it's the second time on this thread I've mentioned your "predictions". :)

89 to 92 is a 3 year period. The HPC in Hale really didn't get kick-started until Oct./Nov. last year (i.e. 2009), so it's a little early to come jumping in on this thread with these constant claims of "I was right/Just as I predicted." As myself and gratefulbear pointed out earlier in this thread, one should not confuse arrogance with fact. :)

Fact: House prices for all properties in the area are still significantly higher than those of 2004.

Fact: The UK economy is now in a much worse state than it was last year. Or the year before.

Fact: The number of sales, and the average price of those sales, is alarmingly low for Hale for the first quarter of this year.

Fact: There are just as many properties - across all price brackets - available in Hale now as there were in 2008 or 2007.

Fact: High and Mid tier properties are proving nigh impossible to sell in the area at present. Unless, of course, deeply discounted.

Fact: Mortgage rates are high, even though the BOE rate is low.

Fact: Mortgage rates are better, but still high, even for those with substantial deposits.

Fact: As we move forward through the next few years, interest rates - as well as taxation - will increase dramatically.

Fact: The younger age demographic is completely priced out of the housing market. Not a good sign.

Fact: Compared to 89/92, the income/mortgage ratio is today is appalling for buyers.

And yet you claim "the bottom will be reached in Hale in 6 months time due to QE"? Huh? We seem to be drifting back to your EA-style posts of last year... :)

Still, let's not waste more thread space covering the same old ground and your constantly changing "predictions". :) Let us instead do what you have suggested above: wait a 3 year period for a clearer picture to emerge. I personally don't think we'll have to wait that long: the changes are already happening now.

Cheers,

Nomadd

Ps. Just for you, as you said last year you would never respond to my posts again: :):):)

You are the Fat Spanish Waiter and I claim my £5.

I'll respond to whatever thread I like. You can like it or lump it.

My views have been 100% consistent and, to date, have been realised.

The fact that there has been "no clearing" makes it perfectly clear where prices are and are heading.

If any market doesn't clear then there's no price setting. That's not a difficult concept to grasp. It may mean prices will clear at a lower level eventually, or it may mean sellers will hold out until buyers cave-in. That's how market price setting works. Because you think it means prices must fall doesn't mean they will. That's just nonsense.

89 to 92 is a 3 year period. The HPC in Hale really didn't get kick-started until Oct./Nov. last year (i.e. 2009),

Friday was good enough to post the actual falls covering 89 - 92. They amounted to a net 8% overall I think. Check 'em out.

The point you consistently miss is that you have an unshakeable view that due to the vast quantities of distressed sellers you will at some point have endless houses at rock bottom prices to choose from in Hale and Bowdon.

I'm simply suggesting that this is highly unlikely, unless you pick one up from a bankrupt developer.

You're list of facts are mostly in your own head, so I won't comment on them, except to say that interest rates rising dramatically isn't a fact. It's a guess. We don't know what the impact of QE will be, nor what will happen when it is reverse and/or we have fiscal tightening as growth picks up.

The young demographic has always been priced out of this particular market.

You're confusing the overall market in the UK with a very specific and small micro market and therein lies your confusion I'm afraid. Jumping around from Cumbria, to the Wirral, to London, to nationally, to Hale, is a rather fruitless exercise I'm afraid. I would have thought you might understand that. Seems not.

There's a reason that prices haven't budged much until last Autumn. It's appears to be following the 89/92 pattern again (07/08/09 - followed perhaps by real falls, not nominal falls thereafter - Hence why I think we're mostly done by the Autumn '09). I have attempted to highlight this to you since you didn't seem to be aware of it, but I can see you have made your mind up what will happen to house prices and when and since you will be presented with abundant choice there's clearly nothing anyone can do to help you on that.

Oh well. Enjoy your home in Sale.

Edited by Red Kharma
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[snip - mindless, fact free rant]

Oh well. Enjoy your home in Sale.

Tee Hee. Really seem to have wound yourself up this time, old chap. Another slow day at the EA office again? :)

I notice how, once again, you ignore the sales data for the area, the price falls on the properties I listed (and myself and others on the thread have debated sensibly), the actual sold prices of last year from Nethouse prices, the maximum sold price data for the streets we've discussed, the pages and pages of unsold properties on Rightmove, the fact that current house price levels have never been sustainable in the area (remember, I've known and worked in the area for 30 years...), etc., etc. And yet you accuse others of having "fixed" views. Laughable. Still, never let the data get in the way of a good story, eh? Oh, and I'll point this out for the 10th time to you: this site is called House Price Crash, so views opposing your "bullish" stance may appear once in a while. :)

I even love your quote of "I'll respond to who/what I like." Er, it was you who claimed you would never respond to my posts last year; I had nothing to do with your words/actions. But it seems your posting habits are like your "predictions": subject to change! :)

And Sale? Nah, I'm sticking to Hale, if only so I can continue to watch you wind yourself up each week. :)

Cheers,

Nomadd

Ps. I'm still waiting for the pictures of you "sucking your mother's teat in the back of a Bentley." ...Another quality comment from one of your earlier posts in this thread. :):):)

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The point you consistently miss is that you have an unshakeable view that due to the vast quantities of distressed sellers you will at some point have endless houses at rock bottom prices to choose from in Hale and Bowdon.

Let's wind the clock back 12 months, when I challenged you over this type of nonsense posting....

Remember what happened last time you tried to put words into my mouth? I challenged you to find the posts where I said any of the things you quoted. You couldn't, so just ducked and dived the issue with endless ranting, hoping no-one would notice. :)

So, once again, 12 months later, I challenge you to find a single post in this thread (or any other, for that matter...) where I said what you have just quoted. And this time, just simply cut-and-paste the section: no ranting, no er-but, no-but, yeah-but, just a simple cut-n-paste. Please see if you can do that; it shouldn't be too busy in your EA office tomorrow. :)

Cheers,

Nomadd

Ps. It's good to have you back, Red Chicken Khorma. You managed to avoid replying to my posts for 6 months, but now, with the aid of a little "dutch courage" (hic!) you've finally broken down. The old troll-meister is back. God how I've missed you. :)

PPs. I must warn you, this time I've prepared for you:

258Troll_spray.jpg

post-1226-1242771547_thumb.jpg

Edited by Nomadd
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I firmly believe that the current housing market is at an impasse that only the Govt can break (by removing the floor under the market). Sellers have not yet come to terms with losing the gains of recent years. I dont believe that repos will have a major affect on Hale itself, but an end to the "Green Shoots" and "Normality" ******** would help. Society needs to adjust to the idea that the boom is over - not just on hold - and this will help people get on with their lives.

Nowehere is immune from the decline and the idea that people with a lot of money will seek less value (i.e. not negotiate hard on expensive property) is also tosh.

Further, I am also interested in how this situation will affect the long term prospects of the area. If you go back 15 years, Balham was the "poor mans" Clapham. However, famailies could not afford to buy a house anywhere else in the area and over time Balham boomed and is now far more desirable for middle class families than ever.

A long term price shut out for families in the Hale area, perpetuated by the current attitude of sellers, cannot be good for the lifeblood of the area and the idea that Hale will always hold its value will be tested.

I wouldnt be surprised if the surrounding areas benefit from this over the next 5 years.

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  • 2 weeks later...
True, but there is some more "realistic" - although I'll qualify that below - pricing around the newer listed stuff (as well as reductions on the older stuff.) Not really sure where the pressure is coming from? Like you say, there may be those who can "hold out", but I often wonder how long EAs will have patience with such vendors. I mean, a RM listing isn't cheap, nor is running/staffing an EAs office, so I wonder how long EAs can keep up with the spend on these "long listed" properties..?

This is a good example of a recent listing: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...tyType%3Dhouses

Now, it's listed at �775k, so let's call it �700k max with a 90% asking offer. You remember exact same type of house in the exact same location coming on over a year ago and sitting there for a year at �925k? The one above seems to have an extra bedroom over it too. So, I guess there is some realism creeping back to the market. ...Until you start looking on Nethouseprices and see that the one on last year didn't sell (as far as I can see) and the highest price ever achieved seems to be �675k in 2005. The average for 2001-2004 is more like �400k for Kensington Gardens (all detached), so I guess that's where I'm coming from when I look at the current prices (even following their downward adjustments) and call them still hopelessly unrealistic.

Cheers,

Nomadd

To reply to my own post above, I've noticed number 2 Kensington Gardens has just popped up on Nethouseprices. Went for £635k in the end. A far cry from the £925k prices of 2007. And still a far cry from the £835k still being asked for number 11.

I guess some sanity is slowly starting to creep in.

A detached on Delahays Drive just went for £592k. Again, a far cry from the £1 mill.+ price tags of 2007, and the £875k-900k price tags still being pushed by the EAs. :)

I'm beginning to think that my 30-40% falls from 2007 prices may have been a little too pessimistic. Who knows, maybe 50%+ is not off the cards over the next couple of years...

Nomadd

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To reply to my own post above, I've noticed number 2 Kensington Gardens has just popped up on Nethouseprices. Went for £635k in the end. A far cry from the £925k prices of 2007. And still a far cry from the £835k still being asked for number 11.

I guess some sanity is slowly starting to creep in.

A detached on Delahays Drive just went for £592k. Again, a far cry from the £1 mill.+ price tags of 2007, and the £875k-900k price tags still being pushed by the EAs. :)

I'm beginning to think that my 30-40% falls from 2007 prices may have been a little too pessimistic. Who knows, maybe 50%+ is not off the cards over the next couple of years...

Nomadd

I have to say that's it really does look like prices are starting to reach a reasonable level. When these houses pass back through the £500k barrier, then I think we'll be looking at approaching the bottom of the decline and a return to long-term average prices.

What I would say though, is that if the mid-range stuff is now going for around 600k, it makes the £1.5m+ start to look very expensive. It will be interesting to see what these go for over the next few months (if they sell at all)

I wouldn't discount a bit of a "sucker bounce" though if interest rates stay low - I'm sure there are a few people waiting in the wings with itchy fingers.

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I have to say that's it really does look like prices are starting to reach a reasonable level. When these houses pass back through the £500k barrier, then I think we'll be looking at approaching the bottom of the decline and a return to long-term average prices.

What I would say though, is that if the mid-range stuff is now going for around 600k, it makes the £1.5m+ start to look very expensive. It will be interesting to see what these go for over the next few months (if they sell at all)

I wouldn't discount a bit of a "sucker bounce" though if interest rates stay low - I'm sure there are a few people waiting in the wings with itchy fingers.

Yep, I'm surprised that some of those I mentioned earlier in the thread at the £695k bracket haven't sold. A couple of them are really nice places in decent Hale/Bowden locations. They entered the market only in the last year, so weren't given the loony price tags of some of the earlier listed stuff. I would have assumed that a 10-15% discount - bringing them into the £600k bracket - would have seen them move pretty quickly; but those sales do not appear to have happened. Whether it's the reluctance of vendors to reduce, or the lack of buyers at the still relatively high price tags, I don't know. I suspect the latter, as people are still paying £600k'ish (although rarely) for property in the area, but it has to be something pretty dammed nice for that sort of money - i.e. something that was previously on at £800-900k+.

I agree completely that £500k'ish marks fair value. IMHO, that's what we'll see in the next 2-3 years. I know I'd certainly be prepared to jump in at those levels, as that's a hell of a site less than was being asked in 2007, where £900k+ seemed to be thrown around as a figure by EAs as if it was lose change. As you say, we are seemingly going through a bit of a sucker bounce at the moment. Still, it doesn't seemed to have pushed prices back up based on the sales data, just merely made them pause at their current levels. This is no surprise, of course, as this is exactly what happened in the last few HPCs. In the meantime, it's just a question of sitting back and waiting - for me at least.

What about you, gb? Weren't you looking to upgrade to something a bit bigger? Have you thought of testing the market with your own place? Seems that the smaller end of the market is where most of the action is in the area at present, so might be a good time for you to consider the jump?

EDIT: re: "What I would say though, is that if the mid-range stuff is now going for around 600k, it makes the £1.5m+ start to look very expensive. It will be interesting to see what these go for over the next few months (if they sell at all)"

Funny you should mention that, as a beauty that came on about three months ago on a third acre plot seems to have disappeared from RM. At 2007 peak it would have easily listed at £1.25 mill.+ due to the location/plot-size alone. It was a big 3 bedder, but easily extendable to 5 beds due to the large plot size. It was listed at £900k'ish (keen price), which with a 10-15% reduction would have made a nice buy at a very significant reduction on 2007 prices. It seems to have sold pretty quickly, so it does show that with very keen pricing bigger stuff is still shifting. Of course, it's that "very keen pricing" that still seems to be eluding many vendors... :)

The £1.5 mill. to £2.5 mill. seems to be no-man's-land. There have been some hefty drops - £400-500k+ but it's had no effect. The sales data shows only 1 sale for Hale in the last 6 months for over £1 million, and even then it was only £46k over. Sure glad I'm not trying to offload one of those properties in the current market. :)

Cheers,

Nomadd

Edited by Nomadd
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What about you, gb? Weren't you looking to upgrade to something a bit bigger? Have you thought of testing the market with your own place? Seems that the smaller end of the market is where most of the action is in the area at present, so might be a good time for you to consider the jump?

I'm in the position that I'm kind of stranded in what I consider the middle ground i.e. fairly decent mid-sized property (think decent sized (not huge) semi/smaller detatched on smallish plot) but would like something if only slightly bigger, but certainly with a bigger plot, possibly slightly more convenient location (I've always disregarded the ultra high end (1.5m+)of the market). At peak prices say if my current house would have gone for 700-800k what I would have wanted would have been 1-1.2m. At my age I didn't want to take on another 3-400k mortgage commitment (esp. given my view that prices needed to fall). Now if we revert to 2000/2001 prices I would only have £150k +/- and I would be tempted to jump. This is why I have been interested in how quickly we find the bottom of the market.

Funny you should mention that, as a beauty that came on about three months ago on a third acre plot seems to have disappeared from RM. At 2007 peak it would have easily listed at £1.25 mill.+ due to the location/plot-size alone. It was a big 3 bedder, but easily extendable to 5 beds due to the large plot size. It was listed at £900k'ish (keen price), which with a 10-15% reduction would have made a nice buy at a very significant reduction on 2007 prices. It seems to have sold pretty quickly, so it does show that with very keen pricing bigger stuff is still shifting. Of course, it's that "very keen pricing" that still seems to be eluding many vendors... :)

The £1.5 mill. to £2.5 mill. seems to be no-man's-land. There have been some hefty drops - £400-500k+ but it's had no effect. The sales data shows only 1 sale for Hale in the last 6 months for over £1 million, and even then it was only £46k over. Sure glad I'm not trying to offload one of those properties in the current market. :)

I think as time goes on we are going to see small houses/large plots becoming available again. I remember there being quite a few of these pre-2000. Apparently since then most were only ever briefly on the market (if at all) since they were prime fodder for developers and were snapped-up. Now that there is no longer a guaranteed profit, I don't think it will happen as much.

I know what you mean about the no-man's-land. I'm not entirely convinced what makes the 2.5m properties worth 1m more than the 1.5m one. Sure, they will have ultra-high end fittings, but I'm sure you can get a lot of great kit for a few hundred grand! (To answer my own question, the difference is called "profit for the developer")

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I know what you mean about the no-man's-land. I'm not entirely convinced what makes the 2.5m properties worth 1m more than the 1.5m one. Sure, they will have ultra-high end fittings, but I'm sure you can get a lot of great kit for a few hundred grand! (To answer my own question, the difference is called "profit for the developer")

Not that some sellers are desperate, but: http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=839074920

I love the EA's choice of words: Due to impending relocation, price slashed by more than five hundred thousand pounds. Reasonable offers considered, come and talk to us. Quality part exchange considered. Must sell by September or will rent

In other words: If one of you mugs won't buy it, I'll rent it. So there! (Er, that's if I can find a tenant. Oh, and my mortgage company doesn't find out what I'm doing...) :)

I wouldn't mind so much, but it's still at least £1.3 mill. overpriced.

And to keep the comedy going, here's another with a £1/2 mill. haircut and some desperation: http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=693257395

The EA states (his/her CAPS, not mine): ***THIS PROPERTY IS AVAILABLE FOR PART EXCHANGE***THE VENDOR WILL CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF PROPERTYTYPE - AnyLOCATION - AnyBEDROOMS - AnyPRICE UP TO - 1,500,000

Guess who's trying to bail before things get real bad. :)

And in reference to your note above about "profit for developer", just look at the price "curve" on this unsold beauty of 2 years: http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=839051828

Now if that isn't a delusion/denial/I'm fooked graph I don't know what is! :)

Another "recently reduced", cutting a small chunk of £1/2 mill. so far into the developers "profit", and that's just for 2009: http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=839091346

Cheers,

Nomadd

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Let's wind the clock back 12 months, when I challenged you over this type of nonsense posting....

Remember what happened last time you tried to put words into my mouth? I challenged you to find the posts where I said any of the things you quoted. You couldn't, so just ducked and dived the issue with endless ranting, hoping no-one would notice. :)

So, once again, 12 months later, I challenge you to find a single post in this thread (or any other, for that matter...) where I said what you have just quoted. And this time, just simply cut-and-paste the section: no ranting, no er-but, no-but, yeah-but, just a simple cut-n-paste. Please see if you can do that; it shouldn't be too busy in your EA office tomorrow. :)

Cheers,

Nomadd

Ps. It's good to have you back, Red Chicken Khorma. You managed to avoid replying to my posts for 6 months, but now, with the aid of a little "dutch courage" (hic!) you've finally broken down. The old troll-meister is back. God how I've missed you. :)

PPs. I must warn you, this time I've prepared for you:

You appear to have created a rather strange fantasy world in your head than I'm rather pleased not to inhabit in reality.

It's seems to be a desperately deluded place.

One where you talk to yourself in your head. I shall instead carry on my dialogue with grown ups in the real world. You know, people who nurture their children, behave in a normal manner, exchange proper social interractions with each other and so on.

I've never quite come across someone as apparently emotionally unstable as you. Thankfully it's only on the internet. Day to day you must be a nightmare.

I'll stick to the subject in hand - As I always have i.e. Distressed property developers.

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Not that some sellers are desperate, but: http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=839074920

I love the EA's choice of words: Due to impending relocation, price slashed by more than five hundred thousand pounds. Reasonable offers considered, come and talk to us. Quality part exchange considered. Must sell by September or will rent

In other words: If one of you mugs won't buy it, I'll rent it. So there! (Er, that's if I can find a tenant. Oh, and my mortgage company doesn't find out what I'm doing...) :)

I wouldn't mind so much, but it's still at least £1.3 mill. overpriced.

And to keep the comedy going, here's another with a £1/2 mill. haircut and some desperation: http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=693257395

The EA states (his/her CAPS, not mine): ***THIS PROPERTY IS AVAILABLE FOR PART EXCHANGE***THE VENDOR WILL CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF PROPERTYTYPE - AnyLOCATION - AnyBEDROOMS - AnyPRICE UP TO - 1,500,000

Guess who's trying to bail before things get real bad. :)

And in reference to your note above about "profit for developer", just look at the price "curve" on this unsold beauty of 2 years: http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=839051828

Now if that isn't a delusion/denial/I'm fooked graph I don't know what is! :)

Another "recently reduced", cutting a small chunk of £1/2 mill. so far into the developers "profit", and that's just for 2009: http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=839091346

Cheers,

Nomadd

There's definitely a whiff of desperation with some of those. Obviously developers are getting very nervous (I remember the 1.75m development starting, and that was ages ago - they've got to be needing to sell) . Problem is I guess they still need to come down another 20-30% (or more) - again if we go back to 2001 prices a lot of the stuff that is on at £1.5-1.75m would probably have been around the £1m level (maybe less - the £1m level used to be quite a psychological barrier until recently), the £2-3m stuff more like £1.5 or so.

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You appear to have created a rather strange fantasy world in your head than I'm rather pleased not to inhabit in reality.

[snip] Another juvenile, mindless rant...

Tee Hee. Same old Red Chicken, same old trolling. Now, where did I leave my Troll Spray? Ah, there it is: pssst, pssst, pssst. That's better! :) (edit: Added an extra smilie. :))

Cheers,

Nomadd

Edited by Nomadd
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There's definitely a whiff of desperation with some of those. Obviously developers are getting very nervous (I remember the 1.75m development starting, and that was ages ago - they've got to be needing to sell) . Problem is I guess they still need to come down another 20-30% (or more) - again if we go back to 2001 prices a lot of the stuff that is on at £1.5-1.75m would probably have been around the £1m level (maybe less - the £1m level used to be quite a psychological barrier until recently), the £2-3m stuff more like £1.5 or so.

Agree completely. The sales data I mentioned seems to show that the "£1 mill." sticking point almost seems to have been reached already, even for non-redeveloped properties. I've noticed that a lot of stuff that was listing at ~£1.25 mill.+ has now shifted comfortably under that £1m psychological barrier. It'll be interesting to keep an eye on that data over the next year or two, as it's only going to take one or two sales at the "new levels" to cause a fundamental shift. Such is the nature of falling markets over time, I guess.

Cheers,

Nomadd

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  • 1 month later...
There's definitely a whiff of desperation with some of those.

Speaking of which...

I remember this one hitting the market 18 months ago at £525k. Went unsold for 6 months, so finally hit the rental market for a while. Now back on at £485k:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...es%26index%3D40

Wouldn't be so bad for them, except someone then pitches one on a few doors away at £425k:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...es%26index%3D40

Can't say either of them are my cup-o-tea, but nice to see the fantasy price bubble deflating. :)

Stock of detached properties under £1 mill. in Hale now rapidly approaching 70 properties. It's been a very long time since I've seen that. Seems the £500-£1 mill. bracket is now undergoing it's death throws. Six more weeks to go before the end of the official "selling season." An interesting Winter awaits. :)

Nomadd

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Can't say either of them are my cup-o-tea, but nice to see the fantasy price bubble deflating. :)

Feel free to post away Nomadd. I read and enjoy your house/market information-posts but just don't have much to contribute myself atm.

Neither house is appealing to me either. Interesting price-difference story, on the same road. I'm not drawn to houses which have compact-looking integral garages. In this instance the integral garage which has a bedroom squeezed above under a sharply sloping roof.

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