Dow Jones Futures Down Over 320!

[R K]

FTSE yesterday finished down what, -135?, today it's re-traced back up +166 points?

Dunno maybe it's me, maybe the slightly positive M&S trading statement today was better than expected (only joking)

Just an observation that the recovery times seem to be happening quicker and the market seems to want to rise. Ignore my ramblings... it's probably nothing

No problem. You mentioned level 2 data and falls becoming smaller with less impact and quicker recovery times. I'm not sure how you get to that from yesterday's sell off, today's bounce (although not in the US) and extrapolate that into the markets wanting to rise. Since I don't have level 2 data I thought I may be missing something.

[Wonga]

Is today's bounce related to it being the last day of the quarter (and the month) perchance?

Could be. Armageddon tomorrow it is then

[Wonga]

No problem. You mentioned level 2 data and falls becoming smaller with less impact and quicker recovery times. I'm not sure how you get to that from yesterday's sell off, today's bounce (although not in the US) and extrapolate that into the markets wanting to rise. Since I don't have level 2 data I thought I may be missing something.

I dunno I'm seeing other stuff too, not just the FTSE example. Don't you think that came back pretty quick today... or is it just me?

I monitor (on Level2), and sometimes trade, other Stocks. There seems to be a bit more 'Buys' queuing up in the order books to get in on the action. I'm not saying they always execute, but there is more "interest". Maybe it's just a temporary thing.

Probably all collapse tomorrow now

[PotNoodle]

the market seems to want to rise.

The All Share Index has fallen from about 3500 down to about 2000 in the past six months.

I believe that is a drop of £ 15 Billion.

Which is mostly sitting on the sidelines, just itching to get back in.

Any hint of confidence and it comes pouring back.

[Wonga]

The All Share Index has fallen from about 3500 down to about 2000 in the past six months.

I believe that is a drop of £ 15 Billion.

Which is mostly sitting on the sidelines, just itching to get back in.

Any hint of confidence and it comes pouring back.

Interesting. Thanks for that.

Must be the "itching" I can see then

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

for the TA's & chartists, huge swings & volatility normally precede something big.

timed nicely for the G20.

I wonder if we get an 'event', I hope not.

[?...!]

£1 leaving the market does not make the market £1 less.

So that £15 billion loss in market value is not necessarily "sitting around" waiting to come back in

(however, there is undoubtedly a lot of money doing nothing right now)

Exactly, this is especially true on low volumes.

Imagine a stock that see's 2% of its stock traded every day...

It is easy to see how if 5% of stockholders suddenly lost confidence they could overwelm the days trading volume and the price could quickly fall by 25-30% depending on the perception of buyers in the market and the liquidity / available capital of those buyers.

This is what happens when hedge funds turn sour. This is what happened when Soc Gen unwound some $7bn in an afternoon after discovering a rogue trader.

The subsequent loss of market capitalisation damaged global equity so much that the fed mistook it as a major weakening of confidence and dropped the prime rate by 50 bps.

[PotNoodle]

£1 leaving the market does not make the market £1 less.

Que ?

[R K]

for the TA's & chartists, huge swings & volatility normally precede something big.timed nicely for the G20.

I wonder if we get an 'event', I hope not.

Stop making stuff up GOM. Some people may read things you say and think you know what you are talking about.

Low volatility and small movements often precede much larger volatility and swings.

You add no weight to your argument by showing your ignorance.

[Wonga]

Stop making stuff up GOM. Some people may read things you say and think you know what you are talking about.

Low volatility and small movements often precede much larger volatility and swings.

You add no weight to your argument by showing your ignorance.

+1

Some of his comments are disgracefully uneducated I have to say.

[Vagabond]

Que ?

I guess he was saying that the market doesn't have a set level of money allocated to it. $1* out obviously makes the market $1 less, but that doesn't mean that $1 is waiting to come back in.

Its probably been taken out to fund a house price purchase as these keerazy-low prices.

*Sorry, its an American keyboard and I can't find the GBP sign.

[blankster]

Futures only down 71 points now. No reason to suspect that Armageddon is immenent! Just a slow slide.

[Vagabond]

I'm afraid that is not it all.

The last transaction sets the price for the rest of the market. (same is true for houses)

So if the last transaction involved a drop on the previous transaction of 10% say, then the whole market is marked down by 10% ( a simplification but broadly true).

As so often happens, I'm now confused. Are you saying a 10% drop in company 'x' represents a 10% drop in the market valuation as a whole, or that the market has no arbitrary level and is mearly priced at whatever the last price for it was?

If its the latter thats what I was (obviously rather badly) trying to say.

The notional or 'paper' change in the value of the market as a whole can be many times that involved in the last transaction. So the reduction in the value of the market is not necessarily sitting on the sidelines waiting to come back in. It has gone up in a puff of smoke.

Gone from the market but presumably still existing somewhere, even if its under a mattress?

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

Stop making stuff up GOM. Some people may read things you say and think you know what you are talking about.

Low volatility and small movements often precede much larger volatility and swings.

You add no weight to your argument by showing your ignorance.

not in 100 year super cycles they don't.

a deflationist who advised against buying gold telling me I don't know what I'm doing.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

+1

Some of his comments are disgracefully uneducated I have to say.

I will let the board make up their own minds on that one.

you can't see through the deflation anger mist imo. Same goes for a lot of posters on here. I knew what to expect with the comments I would be posting, I am not surprised one bit.

you have been a member since aug 2008, who were you before though eh ? vested interests all around, that's what a lot of posters don't realise. A lot of fairly new but reasonably well informed posters have sprouted up, with a lot of resentment for inflationists & GOM.

I'm fully positioned remember. I'm just sat back watching the show.

[R K]

not in 100 year super cycles they don't.

a deflationist who advised against buying gold telling me I don't know what I'm doing.

I'm not a 'deflationist'. That suggests some permanent state. We clearly have deflation, I don't know any sensible person arguing we don't, gold is under it's high of 12 months ago, 10% down in sterling in the last month, and looks set to revisit 6xx over the next few months. There's no hyperinflation whatsoever, so that remains your wet dream.

I didn't and wouldn't advise against anything. If you want to give your money to people selling you gold then please fill your boots.

As for TA, your personal guru came up with his DOW 'concrete ceiling; number using multi-decade TA so I think you're just getting a bit confused about TA, as usual.

[Blink-Star]

Yip she sure is, remind me again is red good?

Ah it's no biggy (the mistake i mean), what you'll see is above the DOW, is a FTSE index this is used to measure what people think the markets would be if they were open now, so sometimes yes some posters will look at it at say seven in the morning and call it a futures index as its a good guide to how the markets will open in London.

My understanding of a true futures index though is it's bets on the state of the market in 3 months time (although i could be wrong)

The 'Cash' prices offered by spreadbet firms represent the underlying, exchange traded, futures contract for the relevant index, plus or minus the spreadbet firms estimation of what the market deems to be the 'fair value' part of the futures price.

'Fair value' is basically the difference between the current REAL index level (represented by the prices of the constituient shares in the index - and therefore not something that can have anything 'priced-in' whilst the stock exchanges are closed) and the index futures level (which trade around the clock from when asia wakes up on a monday, right through to when the yanks go to bed on a Friday). It represents the 'cost of carry' of the futures contract from now, through to the expiry date of the futures contract, +/- any 'pricing-in' that the market deems fit (due to announcements of bad news over a weekend, for example).

This is why the spreadbet cash prices are able to give an indication of where the stock indices will open, prior to the event (remember that the futures markets trade around the clock).

James

[Vagabond]

1. What I am saying is that the last share to change hands sets the notional price for all remaining shares and hence the value of the company.

2. Just gone. Pooff. Doesn't exist. Nowhere to be found. Extinct. You've seen the sketch.

1. Cheers understood, thats what I was getting at.

2. The value has gone but this has been caused by money being pulled out, which is then held somewhere?

I'm not winding up, genuinely trying to understand. Or to make sure I do understand at any rate.

[The Masked Tulip]

We clearly have deflation, I don't know any sensible person arguing we don't, gold is under it's high of 12 months ago, 10% down in sterling in the last month, and looks set to revisit 6xx over the next few months. There's no hyperinflation whatsoever, so that remains your wet dream.

6xx - is that some kind of naked woman in a Bond film or do you think that the yellow unmentionable is going to go down to 600s?

I don't follow the yellow stuff but isn't it about 950 bucks an ounce at the moment - a third drop would be startling.

[Wonga]

I will let the board make up their own minds on that one.

you can't see through the deflation anger mist imo. Same goes for a lot of posters on here. I knew what to expect with the comments I would be posting, I am not surprised one bit.

you have been a member since aug 2008, who were you before though eh ? vested interests all around, that's what a lot of posters don't realise. A lot of fairly new but reasonably well informed posters have sprouted up, with a lot of resentment for inflationists & GOM.

I'm fully positioned remember. I'm just sat back watching the show.

- What does the first point mean? If you've been a member longer you know better?..... I don't think so, I'd say it makes you more blinkered!

- On the second point. Whilst you were sat back today watching whatever show you are watching, I made a very safe £1k on Oil stocks going up in 24hrs.

Yes, the crash continues as it has been for 18? months now. We're still looking for the bottom. I agree, but don't give the impression to people it's all going to crash and burn instantly, it isn't, and causes unnecessary panic to those less informed.

Spread the risks and you will be fine IMO.

Good luck with your chunk of metal, if thats your choice.

You won't see the same poverty in 2009 as was seen in the 1930's depression.

[R K]

6xx - is that some kind of naked woman in a Bond film or do you think that the yellow unmentionable is going to go down to 600s?

I don't follow the yellow stuff but isn't it about 950 bucks an ounce at the moment - a third drop would be startling.

It was 685 3 months ago. There's plenty of very clued up people who think it will be in the 5/600 region again soon. I'm not predicting anything. It is clearly one possibility and would not be inconsistent. Similarly a drop from 700 in sterling to around 500 would seem to be another reasonable possibility. Probably not coming from someone trying to sell you gold of course.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

You won't see the same poverty in 2009 as was seen in the 1930's depression.

no we won't see the same poverty, it will be far worse for comparable years with the 1930's depression.

you just really don't get it.

let me guess, leafy SE, or city boy....reasonably wealthy parents.....masters in business....daddy's mate got you in, all your friends & family are fairly wealthy...

I could go on, but I think you get the picture & this is exactly why you don't get the overall picture. You're looking at a small (your village) beautifully framed picture, whereas I am looking at a huge (UK) falling apart at the seams, shabby picture.

We are in the worst depression since the 1930's & 1870's combined. If you're a stat man, which you will be, just look at some of the charts & stats, the numbers stuff (I have posted links before). Interestrateripoff has posted loads of these charts & stats.

We have injected more money into the system in 1 year, than in the last 300 years. This is ALL you should need to know.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

It was 685 3 months ago. There's plenty of very clued up people who think it will be in the 5/600 region again soon. I'm not predicting anything. It is clearly one possibility and would not be inconsistent. Similarly a drop from 700 in sterling to around 500 would seem to be another reasonable possibility. Probably not coming from someone trying to sell you gold of course.

yes, they were/are the same people who said don't buy gold when it was $500 &/or equivalent sterling.

You all think gold will crash, because it's in a bubble. The bubble hasn't really started yet. You will see.

Someone said a few days ago in respect of this type of conversation (can't remember who it was).

They said something like:

"you are disagreeing with the same people who told you exactly what would happen wrt the financial system, currencies, banks, gold etc. Is that wise"

You will all be doing the same in 1-2 years time with everything we are discussing now & from last year, after you get the next stage/phase wrong also.

Hilarious.

it's in sloooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow motion for us.

[Wonga]

no we won't see the same poverty, it will be far worse for comparable years with the 1930's depression.

you just really don't get it.

let me guess, leafy SE, or city boy....reasonably wealthy parents.....masters in business....daddy's mate got you in, all your friends & family are fairly wealthy...

I could go on, but I think you get the picture & this is exactly why you don't get the overall picture. You're looking at a small (your village) beautifully framed picture, whereas I am looking at a huge (UK) falling apart at the seams, shabby picture.

We are in the worst depression since the 1930's & 1870's combined. If you're a stat man, which you will be, just look at some of the charts & stats, the numbers stuff (I have posted links before). Interestrateripoff has posted loads of these charts & stats.

We have injected more money into the system in 1 year, than in the last 300 years. This is ALL you should need to know.

What an absolute load of imaginary twaddle. I'm ex Forces and live in rural North Yorshire, as you will see from previous posts.

Where do you dream all this stuff up from?.... you need to get out more GOM and get a life.

I won't bore everyone on here to death.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

What an absolute load of imaginary twaddle. I'm ex Forces and live in rural North Yorshire, as you will see from previous posts.

Where do you dream all this stuff up from?.... you need to get out more GOM and get a life.

I won't bore everyone on here to death.

I have known a lot of squaddies in my time & I have never (ever) come across any who trade on the stock exchange, or that use the word 'twaddle'.

you can be whomever you want in this virtual world.