HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted March 18, 2009 Share Posted March 18, 2009 The cost of an average detached house rose by 4.9 per cent between December 2008 and January 2009, pushing up average prices by 0.2 per cent for the month, the figures from the Department for Communities and Local Government show. The national average house price fell by 11.5 per cent in the year to January 2009. Estate agents said the increase in detached property prices was a result of short supply, and demand from buyers with access to ready cash or plenty of equity from the sale of a former home. The data are unlikely to help buyers at the bottom end of the market, who must battle tough mortgage restrictions and high interest rates to secure their first or second purchase. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle5927591.eceInteresting stuff. There is clearly a supply imbalance between housing types, even if you don't buy the total shortgage theory. It's entirely possible that STR folks, who are mostly at the top end of the market which typically doesn't need big mortgages, could get their fingers burned big time. I wouldn't be surprised to see a two tier housing market develop for the next few years as the finance issues (also discussed in the full article) impact and stagnate the bottom end of the market but have less impact on the top end. We could begin to see a cycle develop between downsizers and mid market upsizers, playing on existing equity and without the need for big mortgage multiples. Of course the bottom of the market could get shafted and be unable to move up, but law of unintended consequences and all that..... Although in all fairness, it's still far too early to call any direction yet, as it's entirely possible this is just a temporary blip. But I'm fairly sure any tinkering will have some unintended consequences of some kind, and it'll be interesting to see what they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted March 18, 2009 Share Posted March 18, 2009 Hamish. IIRC that report shows every single other 'class' of house falling during the same period. I read a bit of it yesterday. So why pick out the single 'class' that appears to be rising ? Interesting though what you say about the STR's. I think they may do pretty decently out of all this. Plenty of old people out there with big houses they don't need. Many will want to sell to release cash. Many will die and the house will be left to relatives. I don't think we can be far from people simply saying "Just sell it for whatever you can". For those with a detached house, lots of equity, and who want a larger detached house ? A fall in prices is good for them, I know someone in that exact situation who would love prices to fall by 50%. So there house would be worth less, but they could finally get the larger house they have wanted for years. Time will tell. I dare say it - but lower house prices may even be beneficial for yourself Hamish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m4rk Posted March 18, 2009 Share Posted March 18, 2009 rubbish. id say these are the ones that have fallen the most. every EA has new fixed prices on thier windows of mainly the 200-260k bracket of detached homes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted March 18, 2009 Author Share Posted March 18, 2009 rubbish. id say these are the ones that have fallen the most. every EA has new fixed prices on thier windows of mainly the 200-260k bracket of detached homes. Yeah, cause anecdotal stories beats actual sold price statistics every time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted March 18, 2009 Share Posted March 18, 2009 I just remembered - I am sure Hamish told us he stayed in a detached house ? So there we have it again !! The amazing Hamish is a winner whilst everyone else is a loser !!! What a guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted March 18, 2009 Share Posted March 18, 2009 The OP links to The Times article which contains more bearish than bullish news. The headline itself contains both bullish and bearish signals. This is just noise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted March 18, 2009 Share Posted March 18, 2009 McSpamish, aka Buzz Killington... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m4rk Posted March 18, 2009 Share Posted March 18, 2009 Yeah, cause anecdotal stories beats actual sold price statistics every time... anecdotal stories. is that what actually walking down union street looking at the ea's prices and seeing a white sticker with a reduced fixed price over a previous fixed price is yeh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copper crutch Posted March 19, 2009 Share Posted March 19, 2009 Any news on price rises is not good, this sort of news can create confidence again. :angry: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...57&ito=1723 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indirectapproach Posted March 19, 2009 Share Posted March 19, 2009 As this crash unfolds we should expect to get contrary data points like this “one”. It’s no big deal. When they begin to cluster they will deserve consideration. Until then, they merit nothing more than being noted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted March 19, 2009 Share Posted March 19, 2009 Any news on price rises is not good, this sort of news can create confidence again. :angry: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...57&ito=1723 I think that article is going to do anything but create confidence !! Hoenstly that thread on the main forum last week was great. Someone had taken headlines through the last crash from all the major papers. Very interesting to see what happens through the cycle of a crash. Constant claims of recovery, followed by a year of 'doom and gloom'. And lots more !! Very interesting thread. Shows us what we can expect to hear for the next few years. Personally 'confidence' returning to the market is something I don't expect to see for a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geneer Posted March 19, 2009 Share Posted March 19, 2009 I do wonder how much comfort Hamish should take in the "average" price of UK property. The same stats show the detached houses falling 4.1% in December. Fell 1.2% in November. Fell 3.1% in october. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manterik Posted March 19, 2009 Share Posted March 19, 2009 Any news on price rises is not good, this sort of news can create confidence again. :angry: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...57&ito=1723 Doesn't matter, no one is lending anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copper crutch Posted March 19, 2009 Share Posted March 19, 2009 Doesn't matter, no one is lending anyway. Someone must be lending :angry: http://www.metro.co.uk/news/article.html?H...mp;in_a_source= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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