Media articles NORTHERN IRELAND Hpc Related

[Shotoflight]

'Shotoflight'

NI mortgage debts 'should be' written off

http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/finance/ni-mortgage-debts-should-be-written-off/6527419.article

Seems to nail it as post 2005 and mortgaged - certainly for this source.

I take it that they have included all mortgages taken out since 2005, rather than just purchases? People who re-mortgaged from 2005 would then be included in this? Would be interesting to know the pre cent that bought and that mewed - also the per cent that are interest only mortgages - as a proportion of these would not have been re-paid anyway.

There needs to be some hesitancy about about any debt relief fund as a matter of principle and fairness, however the numbers of people in mortgage debt are substantial, making it increasingly clear that something will have to done.

If not, the numbers of repossessions alone alone would indicate that house prices may fall further, which on it's own would be a good thing (IMO) but it also may make BTL appear more attractive - cheap houses, tenant demand and mortgage availability - the holy trio.

Vision of LL's rubbing their hands with anticipatory glee...

:angry:

People shouldn't be bailed out for negative equity (as against inability to pay) as long as they can service the mortgage, irrespective of house value. Let them wait the term of the mortgage (25 yrs) they signed up to, and see. And those that mewed basically gambled on their most expensive purchase/necessity and had the utility of their further loan - how many used it to buy other property here or abroad? Anyway, with prices now rising, it's only a matter of time.................

The Private Rented Sector (BTL) is a growing trend that won't go away unless there is a major policy intervention against it. Currently, Govt policy and actions actively promote and support it irrespective of reposessions. Dabbling at the margins of HB doesn't appear to be a serious intervention (for investors).

[BelfastVI]

'Shotoflight'

NI mortgage debts 'should be' written off

http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/finance/ni-mortgage-debts-should-be-written-off/6527419.article

Seems to nail it as post 2005 and mortgaged - certainly for this source.

I take it that they have included all mortgages taken out since 2005, rather than just purchases? People who re-mortgaged from 2005 would then be included in this? Would be interesting to know the pre cent that bought and that mewed - also the per cent that are interest only mortgages - as a proportion of these would not have been re-paid anyway.

There needs to be some hesitancy about about any debt relief fund as a matter of principle and fairness, however the numbers of people in mortgage debt are substantial, making it increasingly clear that something will have to done.

If not, the numbers of repossessions alone alone would indicate that house prices may fall further, which on it's own would be a good thing (IMO) but it also may make BTL appear more attractive - cheap houses, tenant demand and mortgage availability - the holy trio.

Vision of LL's rubbing their hands with anticipatory glee...

:angry:

The clue is in the line

Delegates from more than 30 housing organisations attended an event

That, I believe would be our pleter of housing associations. There may be merit on this where the HA's can acquire the backlog of repo's (if they are in areas on need) at the auction prices. However, why give debt forgiveness to the borrowers if they have means of paying some or all of the debt. I can't see our local government even trying to do a deal like that.

Inside Housing is a publication for the social housing sector.

[Shotoflight]

The clue is in the line

That, I believe would be our pleter of housing associations. There may be merit on this where the HA's can acquire the backlog of repo's (if they are in areas on need) at the auction prices. However, why give debt forgiveness to the borrowers if they have means of paying some or all of the debt. I can't see our local government even trying to do a deal like that.

Inside Housing is a publication for the social housing sector.

Why are they discussing "homeowners" mortgage debt. The publication may be social sector but the taskforce would appear to have a wider remit.

I agree, our local govt wouldn't have the ability to make a sensible intervention - without making matters worse.

[2buyornot2buy]

Can you supply any 'facts' to show that Co-Ownership has pushed up prices from 2008 to 2012.

"Facts" with co-ownership can be hard to come by. They are adverse to publishing accounts even though they are publically funded. The Housing Association exemption for FOI request doesn't help.

Do I think that co-ownership enabling several thousand transactions that normally wouldn't have completed pushed up prices by enabling people with ZERO deposit to pay whatever they thought? Yes I think it's a fact this pushed up prices. It enabled several thousand people, a big section of the market, who should not have been able to, purchase a house.

You don't think it is a fact sub-prime lending inflated the bubble?

[BelfastVI]

I agree, our local govt wouldn't have the ability to make a sensible intervention - without making matters worse.

Now I am getting worried. Something we finally agree on.

[little fish]

Of course Inside Housing has a VI. I agree though that the meeting of delegates has a much wider remit or they would have no interest in discussing mortgages - the 'social sector' is not really a social sector any more - HA's are being funded by private funds to build. Co- ownership took almost half it's funding from Barclay's and Bank of Ireland (well it did in 2009 - as 2buyornot2buy says co-ownership transparency does not exist). Exemption from Freedom of Information is ridiculous, to the extreme - we part fund it.

It looks, to my inexperienced eye that NI may be trying to accomplish a whole problem solution to housing. This should be good news - but it's worrying as Shotoflight & BelfastVI are completely correct in their depressing assessment of our government. There's not a titter of wit in Stormont.

Not a titter...

edited to add - if there was a like button on HPC I would like the above post - agreement of the titans

Edited August 26, 2013 by neontetra

[Shotoflight]

One for BVI, Belfast No 1 place to buy - going by this UK centric article, (interesting comments)

House prices on the rise: is now the time to buy?

Mortgages are cheap and readily available - but eventually rates will increase. How should prospective buyers time their purchase?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10239270/House-prices-on-the-rise-is-now-the-time-to-buy.html

[BelfastVI]

One for BVI, Belfast No 1 place to buy - going by this UK centric article, (interesting comments)

House prices on the rise: is now the time to buy?

Mortgages are cheap and readily available - but eventually rates will increase. How should prospective buyers time their purchase?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10239270/House-prices-on-the-rise-is-now-the-time-to-buy.html

I don't think mortgages are readily available in Northern Ireland compared to GB. That could take another while. I certainly havn't come across any two year fixed at 1.5% or under.

I cannot understand why (apart from votes) they are using the Help to buy in areas that didn't have a correction and prices appear so far away from multiples of household income. I don't know enough about the south of England market but it worries me greatly.

I am pleased to see Belfast shown as the most affordable in the UK press. This change in the mood music could well help to ease the mortgage lending.

[2buyornot2buy]

I don't think mortgages are readily available in Northern Ireland compared to GB. That could take another while. I certainly havn't come across any two year fixed at 1.5% or under.

I cannot understand why (apart from votes) they are using the Help to buy in areas that didn't have a correction and prices appear so far away from multiples of household income. I don't know enough about the south of England market but it worries me greatly.

I am pleased to see Belfast shown as the most affordable in the UK press. This change in the mood music could well help to ease the mortgage lending.

HSB offer a 2 year fix at 1.48%

Several are available under 2%. Chelsea, Yorkshire, west brom. tesco, post office.

10 year fixes at 3.8% are available.

[Shotoflight]

Mortgages up 20% but sales up 10% - cash buyers getting squeezed out?

NI mortgage lending rises over second quarter of 2013, says CML

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-23861490

A total of 2,400 loans worth £210m were advanced to borrowers in Northern Ireland in the second quarter of 2013, a rise of 20% on the previous quarter.

Most of the mortgages were for first-time buyers. The 1,500 loans to them is the highest quarterly total since 2009. On average, first-time buyers in Northern Ireland borrowed £71,000.

The CML figures also showed a return to growth in another sector of the market - home movers.

However home movers in Northern Ireland only accounted for 42% of the house purchase market, lower than the 55% UK average.

[2buyornot2buy]

What were the q4 2012 figures. I can't get the FTB £ figures.

[yadayada]

Mortgages up 20% but sales up 10% - cash buyers getting squeezed out?

NI mortgage lending rises over second quarter of 2013, says CML

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-23861490

A total of 2,400 loans worth £210m were advanced to borrowers in Northern Ireland in the second quarter of 2013, a rise of 20% on the previous quarter.

Most of the mortgages were for first-time buyers. The 1,500 loans to them is the highest quarterly total since 2009. On average, first-time buyers in Northern Ireland borrowed £71,000.

The CML figures also showed a return to growth in another sector of the market - home movers.

However home movers in Northern Ireland only accounted for 42% of the house purchase market, lower than the 55% UK average.

The Great Crash, 2007 -2013. A bit like the Great War, 1914 - 1917. Discuss.

[SPADER]

The Great Crash, 2007 -2013. A bit like the Great War, 1914 - 1917. Discuss.

You mean it started when a bloke called Archie Duke shot an ostrich 'cause he was hungry?

[yadayada]

You mean it started when a bloke called Archie Duke shot an ostrich 'cause he was hungry?

Pretty much, but in the very last scene of the same series, they're all about to go over the top and Darling says "The Great War 1914-1917". Not quite.

[2buyornot2buy]

Anyone see the CML lending figures on the main page? Notice there are none of the local players on the table apart from BOI which would be mainly post office lending I guess. Looks like nationwide has picked up plenty of market share. Perhaps their report has more value here now?

I thought RBS would at least have made the top 20.

[BelfastVI]

"Facts" with co-ownership can be hard to come by. They are adverse to publishing accounts even though they are publically funded. The Housing Association exemption for FOI request doesn't help.

Do I think that co-ownership enabling several thousand transactions that normally wouldn't have completed pushed up prices by enabling people with ZERO deposit to pay whatever they thought? Yes I think it's a fact this pushed up prices. It enabled several thousand people, a big section of the market, who should not have been able to, purchase a house.

You don't think it is a fact sub-prime lending inflated the bubble?

The bubble was created by the easy credit, with no deposits that was available for the 40,000 or so transactions that took place at the peak. Co-ownership was insignificant as it was in the 100's.

Sub-prime is lending against more risky assets or people by choice and they normally charge a higher return for the higher risk. In the co ownership the bank lending is quite safe and I am sure the bank in involved would not consider it sub-prime. The co-ownership company purchased the other 50% or 30% against the asset value. When the house is sold they get all their money back. Therefore the risk they are taking is further falls in the property market. Most would now believe prices have bottomed out with some reports starting to show growth. either was, from a risk point of view there would be more chance of the market price increasing in the future rather than falling. The same could not be claimed over all of the last 7 years or more.

[2buyornot2buy]

The bubble was created by the easy credit, with no deposits that was available for the 40,000 or so transactions that took place at the peak. Co-ownership was insignificant as it was in the 100's.

Sub-prime is lending against more risky assets or people by choice and they normally charge a higher return for the higher risk. In the co ownership the bank lending is quite safe and I am sure the bank in involved would not consider it sub-prime. The co-ownership company purchased the other 50% or 30% against the asset value. When the house is sold they get all their money back. Therefore the risk they are taking is further falls in the property market. Most would now believe prices have bottomed out with some reports starting to show growth. either was, from a risk point of view there would be more chance of the market price increasing in the future rather than falling. The same could not be claimed over all of the last 7 years or more.

so you don't consider lending to zero net worth individuals with an inability to save even minor deposits, at highly reduced rates to be subprime? Right I get you...

I suggest you look at coownership impairment charges for 2010. I'm sure if you include the charges up to 2013 they will be near £10 million (probably will never find out as this organisation don't feel the need to provide their main funders with up to date financials). Super prime lending there. HSBC should take note. Why lend to those with 10% deposits and decent earnings when the better candidates are those with zero deposits and poor financial management. Shareholders take note, the board is clearly negligent.

[Shotoflight]

Mortgages for first-time buyers show a 36% rise

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/mortgages-for-firsttime-buyers-show-a-36-rise-29535338.html

On average, first-time buyers in Northern Ireland borrowed £71,000 this quarter compared to £66,250 last quarter. The amount they borrowed relative to their income was 2.81 times – but this remains much lower than the UK average of 3.

The majority (73%) of first-time buyers across the province bought properties valued at less than £125,000 compared to a 40% UK average.

Figures from the CML also showed a return to growth in the home movers sector.

It said 1,000 loans worth £100m were advanced in the second quarter – up from 800 valued at £80m in the first quarter of 2013.

But home movers in Northern Ireland only accounted for 42% of the house purchase market, lower than the 55% UK average.

House purchase lending increased for the first time since the start of 2012, with a total of 2,400 loans advanced. Second quarter lending, worth £210m, represented a hike of 20% compared to both the previous quarter and the second quarter of 2012.

[Shotoflight]

DSD unveils redevelopment plans for Queen's Quay, Belfast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/23879471

The master plan includes a four star hotel and almost 300 homes, alongside bars and restaurants.

The Department for Social Development (DSD), which is behind the plans, said any development would take place on a phased basis, dependent on market conditions.

Later this year DSD will bid for executive funding to begin public realm works which will include the removal of the Station Street flyover and creating a boardwalk along the river.

The plan also states that because of an anticipated "slow response from the developer sector" in the current economic climate, the development plots will be used as "temporary public realm amenities".

It says that it is not promoting Queen's Quay to developers yet but will "monitor market conditions" and listen to informal expressions of interest.

A provisional timetable anticipates the selection of a developer in 2015/16 with completion of the scheme by 2022.

There have been plans to redevelop Queen's Quay since at least 2005 when the now defunct Laganside Corporation selected Sheridan Millennium as the preferred developer.

However, Sheridan Millennium later lost preferred developer status and the project became embroiled in legal action before being derailed by the property crash.

[Shotoflight]

New guidelines, apparently. Stating the obvious.

FCA seeks fair treatment of interest-only mortgage borrowers

Regulator reminds homeowners of their responsibilities in paying off capital, but wants fair treatment from lenders

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/aug/29/fca-fair-treatment-interest-only-mortgage-borrowers

In May 2013 research published by the FCA found that up to 2.6m interest-only mortgages will mature by 2041. However, it concluded that almost half of these people – up to 1.3 million homeowners – may be unable to repay the loan at the end of the term and faced an average shortfall of more than £71,000.

The figures fuelled fears that some of those left with a big bill could end up losing their home or having to keep making monthly mortgage payments into their old age.

In new guidelines issued to banks and building societies on dealing with existing interest-only customers who find themselves in difficulty, the FCA said it recognised that "customers are responsible for repaying their loans [and] repayment of the capital at the end of term is a contractual requirement".

[thegorilla]

DSD unveils redevelopment plans for Queen's Quay, Belfast

Surely there are more pressing areas in the city that need DSD funding?

[BelfastVI]

HSB offer a 2 year fix at 1.48%

Several are available under 2%. Chelsea, Yorkshire, west brom. tesco, post office.

In the real world, back in NI things are a little different.

5% Deposit

Progressive

5.29% 3yr discount, a £495 fee a

Danske Bank

5.98% 2yr fixed,

5.99% term tracker,

6.38% 5yr fixed,

10% Deposit

Ulster Bank

4.5% 2yr fixed,

4.79% 5yr fixed,

4.25% variable,

Progressive

4.69% 2yr fixed OR 4.59% 2yr discount,

4.79% 3yr fixed OR 4.69% 2yr discount,

4.99% 5yr fixed, a £495

Danske

5.28% 2yr fixed,

5.29% term tracker,

5.68% 5yr fixed,

15% Deposit

Abbey, Accord, Nationwide, Virgin and Progressive would be competitive in this bracket.

Abbey

3.79% 2yr fixed

Progressive

3.24% 2yr fixed,

3.99% 5yr fixed,

20% Deposit Many

3.18% 2yr fixed,

3.68% 2yr fixed,

[2buyornot2buy]

Sorry. Do you seriously believe the ones I quoted don't lend in NI?

There's a reason HSBC is lending nearly 15% of UK mortgage market.

I suppose you don't even realise <6% is still very cheap for such a risk.

[Shotoflight]

Worth a read re FTBers, BTLers and London based policy impacting on the 'regions' - Newcastle (upon tyne & Co. down!)

How can the Bank of England ***** the house price bubble?

Amid fears of another house price boom, we look at what Mark Carney can do if he won't raise interest rates

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/aug/30/bank-england-house-price-bubble

So if I live in Newcastle, I could be prevented from getting a mortgage because of what's happening in London?

Spot on. Lending controls are a blunt instrument. If the price spiral in London becomes so severe that Carney intervenes, then the victims will be nationwide, not only in the capital. Houses in Newcastle could represent good value and be affordable to first-time buyers, but lenders would be constrained from granting loans. Carney won't be able to dictate that lenders stop lending in Hackney, but carry on lending in Hartlepool.

[Shotoflight]

Retired renters pay the price for selling up UK

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/mortgages/retired-renters-pay-the-price-for-selling-up-8744403.html

One in every four retirees now rents the roof over their head, just under half of whom are former homeowners, research from Prudential has found.

A small proportion (9 per cent) of those sold up in order to release funds for their retirement, but a huge 42 per cent felt forced to sell in order to settle debts, while almost 20 per cent had to quickly release cash to cover the cost of separation or divorce.