Media articles NORTHERN IRELAND Hpc Related

[BelfastVI]

Any links to the HPI stats? BBC has a link to their page but don't appear to be up yet.

I love how the pace of decline is always talked about.. Even if it keeps slowing down prices across the board are still declining!

http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/lps/index/about-lps/publications/statistics-and-research-publications.htm

They are still declining but not across the board. Geographical location and house types are big factors. Detached and Semi didn't fall at all over the last quarter.

[2buyornot2buy]

Good to see Belfast falling again.

[2buyornot2buy]

Anyone see the EA on newsline saying we've hit the bottom you'll miss the boat?

[BelfastVI]

Good to see Belfast falling again.

1% in last nine months. Outer Belfast practically flat over same period.

Come back Polly. All is forgiven.

[BelfastVI]

Anyone see the EA on newsline saying we've hit the bottom you'll miss the boat?

Again

[Shotoflight]

55% drops since peak (excluding inflation)

75% reduction in transactions

10% below Q1 2005

£94,895 average price

Detached down 16% in last 12 months (-56% from peak)

Semi down 10% in last 12 months (-54% from peak)

Apartments down 25% in last 12 months (-61% from peak)

Belfast -12% in last 12 months

Drops to Q2 2012 revised to -13% from -11%

Steady as she goes.

[2buyornot2buy]

I actually laughed out loud when he used the word fundamentals . Seriously what kind of basic maths have they been teaching EAs.

Edited November 21, 2012 by 2buyornot2buy

[Shotoflight]

Campbell Morris I think. Didn't make me feel I've missed the boat. I'll wait for another few quarters results to see if things are steadying or just holding on for the next drop.

Nice example of Belfast house sold for £175k in 07 with similar going for £44k last week

[Shotoflight]

I actually laughed out loud when he used the word fundamenals . Seriously what kind of basic maths have they been teaching EAs.

He was talking out of his fundament. It's endemic in the trade.

[Bergy100]

To me the report is the continuation of good news even if the headline figure from a VI perspective is a 1% fall in the last 3 months. I think it's pretty certain there are not going to be huge drop figures on a quarterly basis from this report given that it is evident from the graphs a good majority (and I'm stating that by looking at it alone) of the sales recorded are already at £120K - with a substantial amount well below that again. That there are numerous FTB houses, repos etc etc selling in this range is not in doubt. Do these properties have much more in them to fall? Possibly not, though the indication is there will still be drops ahead.

When you see the most optimistic result giving £105K for a semi detached and their standardised price sitting at £96K it only further re-inforces what has been stated on here for a while that asking prices still have a lot further to fall to catch up. Yes, I'm looking at you vendors, in 3/2 semi detached's with asking prices varying between 160-180K. There may be the very odd exception but this report only backs up the opinion that they have bob hope of getting anywhere near and that the best option is still to wait. Only the other day I see 20K coming off a house on my shortlist to leave it around £160K (RV) and it's still way overpriced in the current market.

[BelfastVI]

55% drops since peak (excluding inflation)

75% reduction in transactions

10% below Q1 2005

£94,895 average price

Detached down 16% in last 12 months (-56% from peak)

Semi down 10% in last 12 months (-54% from peak)

Apartments down 25% in last 12 months (-61% from peak)

Belfast -12% in last 12 months

Drops to Q2 2012 revised to -13% from -11%

Steady as she goes.

Steady as she goes

Last Quarter

Detached up in price

Semi Detached up in price

Terraces houses up in price

Apartments - sod them

Belfast -1% in 2012

Outer Belfast 0% in 2012

If it was to continue, as you say 'steady as she goes' I would be happy enough.

I don't mind talking about 'from peak' but someone, I forget who, gives me a terrible time for looking back.

May I be the first to call the next report in February to be more negative than this one as things have been slow over Oct and Nov.

I think I posted about having a good Aug and Sept and this seems, from this report to have been the case for many.

[Shotoflight]

Steady as she goes

Last Quarter

Detached up in price

Semi Detached up in price

Terraces houses up in price

Apartments - sod them

Belfast -1% in 2012

Outer Belfast 0% in 2012

If it was to continue, as you say 'steady as she goes' I would be happy enough.

I don't mind talking about 'from peak' but someone, I forget who, gives me a terrible time for looking back.

May I be the first to call the next report in February to be more negative than this one as things have been slow over Oct and Nov.

I think I posted about having a good Aug and Sept and this seems, from this report to have been the case for many.

Its called seeing the wood for the trees.

You pays your money.............

[BelfastVI]

He was talking out of his fundamental. It's endemic in the trade.

Havn't seen the interview and I am sure its not worth looking up.

However, there were many wise voices on here, I am sure, talking about the break from fundamentals when the average price in NI was shooting past £140k, £150k and so on. The points would have been very relevant then and we have to say are relevant again, on the flip side this time.

I'm sure it grits you to hear an EA talking about fundamentals being right now as he couldn't care less about the fundamentals when the sales were flying out the door at twice the price. The RICS got me the same way when they started preaching about affordability a few years ago when they also could give a flying anything for affordability when they were giving 3rd gear valuations at £20k above the closest comparable in 2007.

Fact is, they both may now be right. I think its not the message but the messenger that grits us here.

the ratio to rents

the ratio to household income

they are where they should be and perhaps below it.

[Shotoflight]

Havn't seen the interview and I am sure its not worth looking up.

However, there were many wise voices on here, I am sure, talking about the break from fundamentals when the average price in NI was shooting past £140k, £150k and so on. The points would have been very relevant then and we have to say are relevant again, on the flip side this time.

I'm sure it grits you to hear an EA talking about fundamentals being right now as he couldn't care less about the fundamentals when the sales were flying out the door at twice the price. The RICS got me the same way when they started preaching about affordability a few years ago when they also could give a flying anything for affordability when they were giving 3rd gear valuations at £20k above the closest comparable in 2007.

Fact is, they both may now be right. I think its not the message but the messenger that grits us here.

the ratio to rents

the ratio to household income

they are where they should be and perhaps below it.

But times have changed - the two time frames are unrecognisable for other fundamentals when doing comparisons;

Emergency interest rates -QE

Europe

USA fiscal cliff

Bust banks lending sensibly, not kamikaze and checking

Austerity

Triple dip

Confidence/sentiment - banks and potential buyers more risk averse

Inflation - oil, food, petrol

12% pa house price drops

repos up 50% in last Q

Pay freezes, job insecurity, unemployment rising, negative equity,

savings decimated

90% of austerity to come - further cuts and taxes

That was then - this is now

This is a whole new ball game

Edited November 21, 2012 by Shotoflight

[Shotoflight]

Calls to improve building standards

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/calls-to-improve-building-standards-16240671.html

The Northern Ireland Environment Agency must be more imaginative when dealing with the owners of dilapidated buildings, MLAs have said.

Calls for a rethink of the way the department deals with problem landlords were made during a meeting of the Public Accounts Committee at Stormont.

DUP MLA Trevor Clarke claimed buildings must be brought up to standard but said the Government should not foot the bill.

The South Antrim representative warned against vesting buildings in need of urgent repair. "It is actually now a burden for us," he told the committee. "Instead of vesting an asset the department has actually taken on a liability."

[Shotoflight]

Northern Ireland house prices continue to fall

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20426403

House prices in Northern Ireland are still falling and are down 12% on this time last year, according to the latest figures.They are now less than half of their peak value recorded around August 2007.

Since then they have fallen by 55%, according to the latest figures released by the Land and Property Sevices.

Apartments have seen the largest fall in value - down 61% with terraced properties falling by 59%.

While prices are still falling, the figures show that the pace of decline is slowing.

In the past three months they fell by just one percent.

Just waiting to see the actual figures.

Nice.

Jim Fitzpatrick, BBC NI economics and business editor, said: "When people talk of the Irish property crash, they're mostly thinking of the Republic. But Northern Ireland's crash is worse.

"The peak to trough fall in values in Northern Ireland is now 55%, compared to a 50% fall in the Republic. But add in the effects of inflation and the difference is even more dramatic.

"In real terms - according to some number crunching by Irish website Namawinelake - Northern Ireland property has fallen in value by 62% compared to about 51% in the Republic.

"If Northern Ireland was a sovereign state, it could claim to have the worst property crash in the world". So far

Edited November 21, 2012 by Shotoflight

[Shotoflight]

Words of wisdom from ups forestside on ramsaytweet

How many properties are 'incorrectly priced', who does the pricing?

https://twitter.com/ramseconomics

UPS Forestside ‏@FORESTSIDEUPS

@jimfitzbiz @ramseconomics interest in property the best it has been in a long time- if a property is priced correctly it will sell

[Shotoflight]

Anyone see the EA on newsline saying we've hit the bottom you'll miss the boat?

He said selling prices were back to the late 1990s - BS. Wonder how many in his window are sitting (or selling) at late 1990s prices?

Having said that, that's where they need to be and where they are heading.

He's just about 18 months too early.

[Killer Bunny]

Heads up. Nolan doing piece on it c 10am Radio Ulster

[Daft Boy]

Eggcelent discussion . Great points from our JD yet again on the housing situation in NI. Also liked the chat about the ulster fry beforehand

[2buyornot2buy]

We'll sell it for a year or two. Lol so funny. The zombies strike again.

[Shotoflight]

They're not rates, they're mates rates!!!!!

Rates relief measures extended for NI businesses

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20492366

Meanwhile, developers will benefit from an extension of a scheme to exclude them from rates on empty homes

Rates are now payable on empty homes.

However, developers have been excluded from these charges due the property crash which has left a number with large portfolios of unsold homes.

That exclusion has been extended for another 12 months and covers about 5,000 properties.

[Shotoflight]

RBS pulls out of interest-only mortgages

Royal Bank of Scotland, which also owns the National Westminster Bank brand, has become the latest mortgage company to pull out of interest-only lending.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/9703540/RBS-pulls-out-of-interest-only-mortgages.html

The bank, which is mainly state owned, said that only 4pc of its customers applied on an interest-only basis, and that it wanted to focus on the products most groups were asking for.

"We don't rule out offering residential interest-only mortgages to niche customer groups in the future but we would do that using specialist advisers rather than our broad base of branch and telephony advisers," said the bank's head of home lending, Moray McDonald.

Buyers with an interest-only mortgage do not pay back any of the loan they have borrowed, only the interest on it, as part of their monthly payments. As a result, at the end of the mortgage term the buyer still owes the total amount that he or she borrowed.

The bank is the latest company to rein back on this type of loan. Other lenders, including Nationwide, have already pulled out of the market. However, existing RBS customers will not be affected. The Financial Services Authority (FSA) recently described borrowers with existing interest-only mortgages and no way of paying them as a 'ticking time bomb'.

[Shotoflight]

http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/buyers-northern-ireland-lending-201211267179.html

first time buyers buy houses wow.

with graphs

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3351

[Guest_Belfast Fubar_*]

Northern Ireland house prices continue to fall

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-house-prices-continue-to-fall-16243466.html

"The average cost of a home is down 3.6% on last year to just under £139,000, the latest snapshot of the market recorded."

Worthy of a Spotlight program how they make this shite up. 3.6 %? It's like trying to change an F on a report card to an A. At least go for a B- it might be believed.