Timm

To be fair, we were at the other end of the cycle at that point.

Talking of graphs, I just noticed the Nationwide’s graph for long term real house prices (yes, that graph), is showing real prices sliding again. What's that all about?

It could be this very one: Sheffield Road, Catcliffe: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-761...=1&tr_t=buy

Yeah, well things are different now mate. Caves are in short supply these days. And what with China and bio-fuels we just can't spare the land for your fancy steak tartar malarky.

Yes to all of the above. My other half has just finished a PGCE. She did this because despite being educated to Masters level she was unable to find a graduate level post. I was stunned by how many people were on the PGCE, and how few jobs they would be chasing. I don't think there is an oversupply yet, (she got a post at her first interview) but there will be very soon. (This years course has not officially finished yet, so a lot of people havent applied for many jobs yet due to other pressures!) I'm also experiencing almost the same situation in Planning. Despite having a planning degree, I've had to take a further Masters, plus I took a position on the reception desk of a planning department to try and work my way up the ladder. Two years later, I start as a DC Planner on Monday. Lots of graduates coming out this year simply are not going to get jobs. (Local Authorities are desperate for planners, but they want people with experience, not recent graduates)

I agree. Although I think he may encourage the large house-builders to take care of this, thereby encouraging use of their land banks now, to lock in the profits from high land prices. After all, if bankers can run a hospital, why shouldn't builders rent out houses?

It's a clear case of repricocity failure.

No. By offering to enter into a Private Finance Initiative which would result in a fixed income from capital to the landowner / developer from the housing association which would manage these affordable rented homes. This would enable house builders to lock in their profits at the top of the market, thus carrying them over the lean years which are about to come.

It's PFI. Builders currently sit on huge landbanks, much of which already have P/P. How to get them to use them now? How about promising that the government will commit to agreements that will result in payments to the equity provider of many many times the capital cost over 30 years? (See health PFIs) On a positive note, they are about to come down on speculators sitting on empty homes like a ton of bricks. The Empty Homes Officers are already installed at most Local Authorities with Comp Purchase powers.

As you know OD, the planning system is currently being revised as we move from the Structure/Local Plan system towards Local Development Frameworks. This was meant to speed up the planning process and make it more flexible. So far, it has had the opposite effect. Since the 2004 Act, a handfull of Local Authorities have produced successfull Core Strategies. Meanwhile, the public has been exausted by endless "consultation" that seems to have no effect whatsoever on the outcomes. However once these frameworks are complete (in several years), we may have a sensible system, parts of which can be adapted when needed (which was impossible with the old system). If Govt judges the new Framework system a failure, it can return to the Plans. If it is good in parts, it can be adapted. Buying Bear will tell you it can be abolished completely. What would seem particually silly, would be to introduce a whole new untried system, just when the previous billion pound adventure was starting to produce results. Which of course, is what will happen.

Like this? http://www.andrewsonline.co.uk/buyers/prop...ls.asp?id=37175

Hmm. The blog's tagline "Not one stone shall stand upon another": Matthew 24, I think, when Jesus is fortelling the end of times.

I'll credit you with irony for that Europa, as much of the time you provide a welcome balance to the hysteria-bears.

I did that too. Sorry. I also became the perfect human male, broke up thousands of marriages, and encouraged young women to have unrealistic expectations of a prospective life partner, to increase the number of single person households. And I established the NHS, causing old people to live longer, for the same reason as above.

This is what I find interesting: 1987 ..approvals . lent (£m) Q1 228,700 5,904 Q2 280,400 7,598 Q3 299,200 8,357 Q4 299,200 8,668 1988 Q1 284,500 8,566 Q2 337,600 11,123 Q3 366,200 13,244 Q4 261,200 8,939 1989 Q1 204,500 6,990 Q2 245,000 8,734 Q3 213,600 8,178 Q4 222,500 8,696 Everyone I know who was in the property game last time it crashed say it went down in 1988 with the end of DI MIRAS. But look at any graphs of house prices and the crash doesn't show up until at least 1989. The fall in approvals from 88 Q3 to 89 Q1 is about 42%. Even with seasonality this still a big drop - one that has no competition until 2005, and we all know what happened then... The current figure is 24%, which is noteworthy, but not unheard of. According to a seasonal trend we can expect the numbers to pick up for Q2 this year. If the number of approvals (currently 238,100) remains below 250,000 then we can expect nominal MoM price falls by the end of Q3. If it falls, we are talking meltdown.

Ahh, travellers. The hazy days of crusty raves and popping up "site" for an eighth. It was the mass unemployment and the 80's boom that put young folk on the road. It was the Criminal Justice Bill that ended it. A basket of laws that exists to this day, thus scuppering any "live in a van in a field" alternative lifestyles, although the tent-cities are on the rise.

Councils have Compulsory Purchase powers, but these are expensive to use! An alternative is an Empty Dwellings Management order, which allows the Council to let out a vacant property on behalf of the owner. Not sure how effective they are though...

PFI.

UPDATE. A rescue package has been announced: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/moneybox/6758383.stm "Shared Appreciation Mortgages enabled customers to borrow around 25% of the value of their property. But they had to agree to pay back 75% of the increase in the home's value if they sold, leaving many unable to move. Now Barclays says it will replace 2,500 mortgages with a loan to be paid off later or upon the customer's death... And the loan debt will not grow with rising house prices in the way that it does now with a Shared Appreciation Mortgage. " So: elderly get let off from consequences of making a bad bet on the market? Or is this just the Banks locking in the rise in the face of a market downturn?

Maybe he means the right-to-buy the BTL flat you are living in at a 60% discount. "Got to get rid of these johnny-come-lately chappies thinking they are top-drawer landowning aristos like us Eton boys, doncha-know?"

Good idea! http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=Briton Briton Anglo-Fr. Bretun, from L. Brittonem (nom. Britto, misspelled Brito in MSS) "a member of the tribe of the Britons," from *Britt-os, the Celtic name of the Celtic inhabitants of Britain and southern Scotland before the 5c. Anglo-Saxon invasion drove them into Wales, Cornwall, and a few other corners. Only in historical use after O.E. period; revived when James I was proclaimed King of Great Britain in 1604, and made official at the union of England and Scotland in 1707. So if you are Anglo-Saxon, you ain't British. Not very inclusive after all!

Heh heh! Google it... Its basicly a paranoid conspiracy theory that the NWO is seeding the clouds so they rain poison on us "useless eaters" to make more space for them. It would explain the "dirty rain" we get these days. But wait till you get to the "Sylphs"

That's a good point. If this weeks run on bonds continues that would affect affordability of loans. However the BoE rate is the one that people set their expectations by. This will change (reduce), but it's still an effect. After all, people will still tell you inflation is low when we all know it isn't. Where do they get that idea? The BoE repo rate. Anyway, I said I was being paranoid. Don't mean they won't though.

That's what I mean. It's only now that it will have a zero or negative effect that it will be happen. The reason it will be done is that it will create a negative feedback loop and (somewhat) mitigate any falls in house prices by providing justification for interest rates to be somewhat lower than they would be if this deflationary effect had been left out of the calculations.