tenroom

Ummm . . . ooookayyyy . . . who who were you referring to then ?

Maybe it (sentiment) has, maybe it hasn't. Does the fact that a forum member changes his profile from "bear" to "neither"or "bull" denote that sentiment is changing nationwide ? I don't think so. In any case, there isn't anywhere near enough momentum in the sentiment change you allude to for the market to crash or correct. My membership of this forum has rendered me immune to all but the most "respectable" of VI spin and this can have the effect of detaching one from the reality that exists on the street, on Rightmove, in the Evening Standard/Daily Mail, on Relocation Relocation and on Uncle Fred the BTL landlord's lips. People will continue to buy property until the media - in its entirety - tells them, in no uncertain terms, that this . . . party . . . is . . . over and that ain't going to happen until something makes mortgages too expensive to hold on to. Someone on another thread mentioned the sub-prime market unwinding in the US being a potential catalyst to our market. There are similarities between this meltdown and the unwinding of the junk bond market in the late 80s as both JBs and securitised sub prime mortgage books are high yield, mickey mouse quality bonds. There is a possibility that the banks behind these sub prime lenders over here will simply withdraw funding but as long as they're making such huge profits from their other activities, they can probably afford to simply continue writing defaults off.

Yes.

Sentiment didn't figure in causing last crash, 15% interest rates and the attendant unaffordability of most mortgages, rising unemployment and rampant repossessions took care of the necessaries. Once it had started, THEN sentiment got involved when it was widely acknowledged by the man in the street that property prices were going down and, in the same way you and I find it virtually impossible to convince people we come into contact with that now isn't a good time to buy property, it was nigh on impossible to convince anyone that prices would start going up again. The fundamentals aren't in place for a repeat of '88-94. A crash is coming but it'll be a 21st century set of fundamentals that underpin it. Might have sweet FA to do with unemployment or interest rates and more to do with oil wars and global terrorism.

Oh Behave . . . If your first statement is true, you need to get a different life, my friend.

Don't be mean . . . Property Guru's asymmetrical nose is . . . characterful. . . .

Nice post . . .

I'm pleased. I'm trying to flog my gaff. Rate hike might've killed the buzz . . . Although, speaking to an agent this morning and he said in no uncertain terms that the market was at its highest point . . . Wouldn't have heard that 6 months ago

Yeah you've got me on "Ignore" but you know you read everything damn I post you sanctimonious ball of scum . . .

Yes. Sentiment didn't figure in causing last crash, 15% interest rates, rising unemployment and rampant repossessions took care of the necessaries. Once it had started, THEN sentiment got involved when it was widely acknowledged by the man in the street that property prices were going down and in the same way you and I find it virtually impossible to convince people we come into contact with that now isn't a good time to buy property, it was nigh on impossible to convince anyone that prices would start going up again. The fundamentals aren't in place for a repeat of '88-94. A crash is coming but it'll be a 21st century set of fundamentals that underpin it. Might have sweet FA to do with unemployment, interest rates and more to do with oil-based conflicts and terrorism.

Generally tend to agree with you on most things Cletus but 2012 for London Just can't see it going like that. The whole Olympics thing is such a white elephant it's unreal. In the UK, central government and its subordinates have an unenviable record of screwing up large-scale projects like this. They pissed £800m up the wall with the Dome and are only too eager to get on and repeat the exercise with the Olympics. Londoners will end up like the Athenians, still paying for the infrastructure years later even though all the jobs and prosperity have evaporated. Can you sincerely see HPI in London continuing for another 5 years ?

Oh you're back again are you - complete with "Neither" tag ?? Still swaggering around the board with your tosspot signature bragging to anyone who'll listen about how smart you are to have made a few bob outta property. Well, welcome back . . . sadly there's still no pussy to impress with your wad but that doesn't matter, does it ? What was it you were bangin' on about at the tail end of last year ? Lemme see . . . . "Q107" Yeesssss, that was it ! Not much longer to go to see if you were right

Securitisation is the process whereby the lender effectively sells a batch of packaged up mortgages which offer the purchase far higher ROI than, say, a government bond. So for example SPML might have extended 1000 mortages at an average rate of 13% which is attractive to hedge and managed funds. The LTV ratios will be no higher than 90% offering some modicum of "security". A hedge fund will rock up and hand over £75m for the batch allowing SPML to offload the loans from its balance sheet even though they still administer the loan as far as the borrower is concerned. If too many of the loans default too soon, the hedge fund or whoever's bought it can force return the batch to the originator and that's what been killing the US sub-primers.

SPML is owned by either Lazards or Lehman Brothers. Future Mortgages are owned by Citibank . . .

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

So fukking spot on ! Most of these planks are nothing but wannabe BTLers pissed off at having missed the boat.

Well having read some of the vitriolic comments by some of the younger priced-out FTBs toward the soon-to-be-retiring baby boomer generation, I tend to share your apprehension. On an unrelated point, whilst on my daily cycle from Notting Hill to the City yesterday, I counted no less than 109 CCTV cameras.

Even after all the rudeness and barely-concealed hostility on city street, the dirty, ill-mannered children rattling around the streets at midnight and later, the power-crazed Metropolitan police force, the proliferation of the raised middlefinger as the gesture of choice on our roads, the high fuel and utility prices, the sheer incompetence of shop assistants in hardware stores who think they're all going to be famous, the councils caught out every year by the cold snap, the increasing cost of travel on public transport in London and the cynicism of our banks and big business whose commitment to ripping us off has never been more profound, sometimes, just sometimes , you do get a glimpse of what makes us endure the seemingly never-ending barrage of negativity in British society. Every now and again, the generosity of spirit of the average Brit, our tolerance, the stoical attitude in the face of terrorist threats and our self-deprecating humour serve to remind that there is more to being a great Brit and a great human being than the mere absence of problems. Although many European countries are gushed over at parties as being idyllic places to raise a familyin a civilised manner, they've not got a fraction of the olerance that we have here where all colours and creeds are accepted.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Because for jobs, things to do and general "buzz" there's no other city in the country that compares. Of course it's not for everyone but ultimately, property prices are higher here for a reason.

Probably cos he's been on here reading the prophecies of doom for too long. I'm continually amused by the sheer disbelief shown by many bears when Merv issues a bullish statement on inflationary pressures and how interest rates may very well have peaked. I think they consider it an affront to their own back-of-a-fag-packet economic synopsis and wind up here unloading their vitriol. I can't see rates passing 6% any time soon because the inflationary pressure of rising utility prices and rampant pay settlements just aren't in the mix at the moment and while there are undoubtedly more factors to be taken into account vis a vis inflation, the BoE and all the other VIs only need realign the expectations of the man in the street for sentiment to remain bullish.

Same in the Grove . . . 3 bed ex LA flat on large estate goign for £350K Even Foxtons'll sell this stuff now . . . Let the good times roll . . .

[inappropriate reply removed by moderator]

Oh FFS . . . of course there's a shortage of property for sale in any location or area that's considered half desirable.