Unmoderated

I can't wait. We'll all feel some pain but no pain, no gain. Can't cut out the cancer without some recovery afterwards.

Bloody love hindsight.

One of the first things I was taught in Economics was that the BoE uses confidence as much as action. If the market perceives they will act that is a fair bit of clout. If everyone out there now expects higher rates for longer they'll pull in their spending. I'm super lucky to have fixed when I did but I'm already not doing the extension I had planned since that woudl burn my safety cushion and pile on another £125K of debt. That's a £250K expense not happening now. I'm but one man, many others must also be doing the same.

Here's an article referencing several. https://www.economicsobservatory.com/when-will-uk-inflation-return-to-the-bank-of-englands-target-of-2-a-year#:~:text=The National Institute for Economic,back to 2% in 2025. The question though isn't what inflation will do, the question is what rates are required to bring inflation down and keep it there.

In honesty I've been very focused around T6.1 VW transporters 2016 or later as they're Euro 6 compliant so can explore without the issue of BS fines. For me a good prices would be something around £25K for under 100K miles. These were about £35K a year ago. Hoping for a fairly ok but not amazing summer and continued high interest rates until I can pick one up! I'm quite specific though. I really want the 150PS (would love the 204PS) with a DSG and dynamic cruise control. Having driven one only for a few hours on the motorway the pedal angles make it uncomfortable driving position for me. Dream set up is a top loading fridge, Eberspeacher heater, climate control and twin captain's chairs (way more comfortable.

Only thing I've been tracking is campervans. Prices definitely falling. Possibly a combination of Covid bubble totally popped, not the best start to summer (at least compared to the last three or four) people having borrowed to buy them and now needing to cover that debt, or need the cash for other things that they might previously have borrowed for (or to take a lump off the mortgage and reduce outgoings). Ebay is pretty awful user experience though. I guess it woudl be hard to build decent search filters for absolutely everything but it's painful to use them. Select one thing and it ticks and closes everything. Jokes. Old and dated.

I don't disagree with you entirely, there is an opportunity (if their research shows) that marginal voters might be persuaded to vote if they feel it's important and that might prove pivotal in an election. However, the standard turnout is stable. Older = more likely to vote. Wealthy = more likely to vote. Homeowner - more likely to vote. Correlation isn't causation, of course, but I can't help but feel that unless demographics who are getting screwed over start voting reliably and en masse there is absolutely nothing to be gained by pandering to them. Case in point is Brexit. The number of people I know even in their thirties who bash boomers for Brexit yet couldn't arsed to vote in the referendum astonishes me. They can't join the dots that Brexit didn't win, Remain lost. I don't think not-voting should be a choice and I feel strongly that it's not an option to not have a government supporting law, order and property rights at a minimum. Abstaining from voting because you're trying to place self above society is plainly egotistical. Maybe that's not what you mean but to say there's nothing one thinks is worthy of my vote so I shan't bother is sort of the same thing? Perhaps anarchy is what some people would like. I don't know. Politicians are people and each has a simple job..... get re-elected. If they don't take the people's (those who bother to vote) interests into account then why are democracies better places to live than dictatorships? Might not be perfect but I know where I'd rather live. As for the earlier example of Australia it consistently ranks as one of the best places to live in a number of tables. An interesting article https://www.teenvogue.com/story/australia-mandatory-voting

Never understood the 2011 riots. Duggan was utter scum, had a hand gun, had texted that 'Trident' (the operational name for removing guns from the streets) had got him. Whether he reached for the gun or not is academic. He put himself squarely into the 'person of interest' box. Then people take the streets crying about how unfair it all is and that the police are all racist and should stand trial for murder. It's a joke. For parallel where were the riots when the policeman was found guilty of abducting, raping and murdering Sarah Everard? That is a totally outrageous abuse of power..... There were protests and the police got a lot of flack for being heavy handed but no riots. So... riots for the lawful killing of some scumbag in possession of an illegal firearm, a fairly light protest for the rape and murder of Sarah Everard..... tells you all you need to know about the groups concerned imho. Riots without cause, as these are, are nothing more than wanton vandalism hiding behind some excuse. Why was Nahel Merzouk pulled over? Why did he drive off? How did a 17 year old apprentice electrician have a fairly new Mercedes A-Class which was 'borrowed' and was running Polish licence plates. Lots of questions.

You are spot on! Trade Union activist though. All you need to make it to the top in Labour isn't it? Can you screw the country into submission? Can you screw your own brother out of the job despite him being the best qualified for it? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/sep/25/ed-miliband-labour-leader Won it on strong support from the trade unions!

FML.

The highest marginal tax rate was introduced as a F***you/last hurrah attempt at trying to win the 2010 election. He removed the personal allowance for anyone earning over £100K. 62% marginal tax rate. The reality is everyone that's numerate will do their level best to avoid it through pensions, other salary sacrifice or just working fewer hours.... the includes NHS consultants, dentists etc. Removing pension contribution caps will help keep people in work for longer but ultimately removing the BS marginal tax rate would probably result in higher tax revenue for HMRC since people would work for longer and not be as keen to pay such large contributions to pensions to avoid this.... the net result of which means people earning decent salaries accelerate their retirement by saving more than they otherwise would.

Friend of mine bought a place in Sydney last year (maybe 18 months ago. I can't believe how much it cost but it was top floor, wrap around balcony and three bedrooms. Looked beautiful. He loves it there. He might come back but I doubt it. He's had his first child there and I think another is on the way. They both seem really happy.

I don't see an argument against what I'm saying, simply a made up one that if doing something doesn't solve all the issues and make it a utopia then meeeh, why bother? If that's not what you're saying then what's your point? Nowhere have I ever described everyone voting as the vote to utopia. Utopia doesn't exist, does it? 🤡 If you're actually keen to learn and share what your thoughts are, rather than just being cantankerous read on and we can leave the past behind. What I said was, in the UK, the young get screwed over because they don't vote. Do you think Australia has a better balance and a better representation of its people if everyone votes or worse? https://consoc.org.uk/compulsory-voting-uk/ "In the UK, this would mean parties – and governments – no longer facing strong electoral incentives to tailor their policies specifically to the interests of elderly voters, and being pushed instead to appeal more to younger and more politically disaffected sections of the electorate." Most arguments against mandatory voting (which I'm not sure I've ever advocated, I've simply said that if everyone under 40 voted they'd get a much better deal) revolve around fairly abstract arguments around freedom of speech, and not to speak and that it's not a civic duty, simply a civic right.

I do no such thing. Government is a machine. It cares only about winning elections. It bends its 'ideology' to do so. I wont discuss it further because it seems so few really grasp the idea that if everyone voted the governments job would be much harder and the world would be a far fairer place. You can strap any label you like on to people who vote or carrying influence. The fact remains - all they care about is pandering to the people who vote.

The link is interesting. Lies, damned lies and statistics. But @scottbeard's point still stands. Even when investigated the assertion doesn't, necessarily, still stand. So when we're making guesses about things like vaccines, covid, lockdowns etc it's important to have the supporting data and to have the methods used to form a conclusion open and honest. That's really the point I think? It's almost verbatim, but no misquote could ever be verbatim... there I go again! Thank you very much 😀😜

Something else we agree on 🍻 What I especially love about @scottbeard is their respectful and factful responses. Very logical mindset and it is possible to disagree with people like that and either learn something, or they admit they've learned something. Clearly a very smart cookie. The issue I have with others (some are ignored like Arpeggio) is they've formed an opinion like "I hate vaccines because I'm scared of needles" (for example) and then try and blame every single bad thing since the introduction of vaccines on them which is clearly silly. I've a friend who is obsessed with Brexit and blames every issue on it to the point you disregard everything else he says because it's like a rabid reaction to a single issue.

Can you find a book that isn't without criticism? Can you tell me what makes the criticism valid? IIRC is was criticised mainly for being not focused entirely on economics but on human sciences. They are naturally light on empirical evidence to make them more open to the casual reader imho. The particular example of abortion is valid though in your repeated guessing on excess deaths. I could guess too and I've already found some evidence. Spoiler it isn't the vaccines. Imho it was Covid and lockdowns. Heart problems were rising before the introduction of vaccines and tailed off shortly afterward so whatever was causing it wasn't vaccination. Lockdowns caused no end of other issues. My view is we should have let it rip, or at the most adopted the Swedish approach. BTW, you've misquoted Andrew Lang and it's a favourite. "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts—for support rather than illumination.

Freakonomics and Superfreakonomics are great books! The link in abortion and falls in crime are well accepted. God help them in 15 years after overturning the Federal right to it. As ever, a well articulated post Scottbeard. If we ever become an actual political movement you might have to be our spokesperson. I would nominate for leader too but I think TCON has probably earned it from 20 years of religious like devotion. Speaking of which.... paging @TheCountOfNowhere

True. Mate of mine emigrated. When I mentioned the mental costs of housing down there he literally said they'd just open the taps a little to keep things propped up. Story I've heard by several others. Not my cup of tea tbh but looks like an incredible place to live.

What you've managed to do is try to steer my argument to Joe Public when I stated it was specifically the segment of the public that can be bothered to vote. People who don't vote will get what they're given, the other segments of society will get what the government believes they want. There are about 25 million houses in the UK. Say, you want to build 1 million (you seem to want to unless your arguing for argument's sake - which is also fine). So in my town of 25K houses we're going to build 1K council houses. Can you imagine the NIMBY pushback on that? I'm not looking at it from my perspective. I'm looking at it from the masses. If enough of the electorate wanted this doing it would get done. But they don't. So it wont. Even if all the under housed, homeless, renters etc could be bothered to vote it wouldn't be enough to win an election. We all know who votes and who the politicians listen to.

Thanks!

I fail to realise? Why do you think house prices are at the mental levels they are? Because Joe Public wants to feel rich, or at least those who bought a house want to feel rich and not feel like they've lost money. Politicians are a long way from stupid (most of them anyway). Same reason boomers get triple locks and while students get bent over dry. The former votes, the latter does not. If you do not vote you do not count. Politicians will do what they can to win elections. Building over a million council houses to give to people who, in many voter's eyes, don't 'deserve' one ain't gonna win you an election my friend.

uhuh uhuh

How are you working out the versus earnings number? I make it about 5 to 6% and that metric really just shows they're becoming more affordable. If earning were falling at a faster rate I'd be more inclined to lean to higher price falls but this is, essentially, affordability improving.

What are you invested in? You've not provided the evidence for the sale and rental prices in your area to compare - just anecdotes.