AgeingBabyBoomer

'Golden Wonder In Administration' Crumbs! ABB

As a corollary, it is thought that China's decision to diversify out of dollar reserves is based on a readingof the recent Fed meeting minutes where it was strongly hinted that their ratetightening cycle was coming to an end. It seems the Chinese do not want to buy dollars if the interest rates are going to be low. This in turn has caused the dollar to fall, and other Asian currencies to rise. South Korea and Taiwan in particular are rumoured to e considering Central Bank intervention to prevent their own currencies becoming too strong (and hurting exports to the US) by buying dollars today. Could get very interesting (pardon the pun) ABB

I'm guessing he is quoting average LTV figures. Of course, he does not quote corresponding figures for when the 'gross' multiple was closer to 3.5, maybe then LTVs are much less than the 3.2 he quotes. The implication is that HPI is due to people using ever larger deposits - yeah, right. I think we have enough evidence from the RICS overvaluations, and Lie To Buy scams to know that in reality 100-130% mortgages are today quite the norm, one way or another, and that the VI's know this, look the other way and fudge the numbers.... ABB

Well , I read this over and over, but still I fail to see any relevance to the Morrisons story. Moroninc and trolling, the only significance it could possibly have is if Kate Bush is the HR Director of Morrisons who has been ordered to derail the thread, or join those depot workers. Needless to say, Kate Bush has not replied to a single post since. ABB

But the £3800 is not income - it is interest paid to offset the devaluation from inflation. Your £100k is worth less than £100k after 12 months. If you buy outright, your £100k is spent, therefore the money cannot depreciate in value, though the house may ABB

One very good option is emigration. This is much more easily done if you are both debt and property free. I would hate to be stuck in a deteriorating country just because all of my assets were locked into property ABB

That is a fair pont, but I am aware of many forty somethings who cannot afford to upgrade to accomodate their ageing children. Senitment amogst the majority towards the virtue of ever increasing house prices has begun to turn. ABB

Don't you mean without Communism, we'd still be working a 12 hour 6 day week in a factory, alongside my uneducted children with no healtcare or safety net should Iose my job? BTW we do not have free markets - they are all owned and rigged by the ruling classes. ABB

It may be the house of your dreams - are you prepared to assume the debt of your nightmares to own it? ABB

Wait until she goes out, change locks and evict. Failure to complete is breach of contract. Keep the deposit too. She may learn from her expensive mistake. ABB

Well, In som erespects it is different this time. Many more FTB's are single - there has been an increase in the number of single homeowners - so your assumptions about the biological clock only apply to 50% of the population in the first place, and only that percentage in a potential family starting scenario will be on your list of potential buyers. Also, renting is so much cheaper than buying right now, that people can afford to wait and save. I know people who put off starting a family until the woman was in her forties -mainly because of HPI in the 80's and the 90's crash. do not assume that will not happen again. Also, do not assume that your paper gain today will be realised in full - when the market tanks, you will get what people are prepared to pay. Don't forget also, that there are many highly geared BTL's who have the same 'master plan' - there may be a glut of sellers like yourself trying to remain solvent while the market gets very irrational in the bearish direction. Finally, those who have been locked out of home ownership for some time will not be in any great mood to help you liquidate your assets. IMO ABB

From the school where they teach you as far as logarithms..? ABB

Can we not just have an age field in peoples profiles, and run a script now and then to snapshot the membership demographic? Since there are three thousand members, this thread might otherwise get very long and boring 41 BTW ABB

People who have been sold the idea of BTL as a pension have effectively been missold a pension. There is no guarantee of a decent return, particularly if you bought at peak and on IO morgage. Given the glut of investment properties around now, I would not be using them for a pension. (Plus they require work input). Shares aren't so great, I am actively looking for better alternatives to both. ABB

2.1 new people per new home...? The effect of HPI on future demographics has already been debated. People sacrificing their salaries on the altar of HPI are getting older and older before making their nests. They are not necessarily jaffa's, just responsible. I think the demographic modellers do fail to factor in the feedback of HPI on the replacement of popultaion though. ABB

Apparently Eire has a budget surplus and made tax cuts in their budget. Also, a number of tax effciient savings vehicles are beginning to mature, which will put yet more cash in peoples pockets, and offset the ECB rate hike It may be that the cash is used to pay down existing debt, but it could also be used to gear up yet more. I wonder which will happen? ABB

Back in the day a crisp £30 note would have got you an equally bona fide MOT certificate . Having been a bottom feeder in the car market for many years, I have concluded that the only way to minimise the money pit that is car ownership is buy new or nearly new and drive the thing into the ground for 10 years or so, then repeat. New cars are incredibly cheap at the moment. ABB

well, that is what I expected. I don't think that in itself reduces the probability of a crash though ABB

Looking at my own private pension, and the recent antics of the bigcorps, I would say not safe at all. Don't forget that the pension funds gambled alot on the dot com boom, and lost. The real problem is how to transmit today's wealth to the future. I'm beginning to think the best way to do that os to buy a big lump of gold when the price is low, and bury it in the garden... ABB

Not buying now is not a zero risk option. Prices could start going up at 20% again. If they do, I fear many will never own a home. ABB

Would vote, but there is no option for 'No, I just want my own home' ABB

deus ex machina - methinks you have been reading 'Boom Bust 2010'. This is the solution espoused by its author. I tend to agree with his theories - they are pretty well constructed for the most part. The argumant runs that the value of land (not property) is a function of the infrastrucutre that can be accessed from it (that's whay an acre of the Great Australian Desert is worth so much less than an acre of the City of London) As such, improved infrastructure, funded by the taxpayer imparts a value premium on the land that benefits from it presence. EXAMPLE: I used to live in Lewisham, and when the DLR extenion was announced, house prices in the area immedialtey rose. Effectively, the investment by the taxpayer was immediately converted to windfall gains for private landowners. So, the value gain should be subject to taxation, to recoup the cost of the infrastructure investment. His (Harrisons) examples are mainly UK based, and it is unfortunate that no examples of this policy in action are cited. However, I believe that such a poilcy has been in operation in France for some years, i.e. if a gain over a certain threshold on a piece of property is realised, then it is subject to taxation at a high rate. This policy has spared Paris at least from speculative price ramping -prices still rise, but not beyond the ability of the residents to pay them. Recently, the Chinese broguht in similar regulations to cool down rampant speculation in the Shanghai property market - it has had a remarkable effect on the HPI there. (Thanks to Consa for digging out the relevant info at ****). TTRTR - that has to be one of the longest best constructed replies you have ever made. However, I think you are missing the point - nobody is suggesting that property be appropriated form its owners, just that they be invited to contribute toward the cost of the infrastructure that has improved the vakue of their land - seems fair to me. Location,location,location is the key to it all ABB

Agreed, but it's not just GB, it is the government finance ministers fo the US, Australia, New Zealand and all the other countries experiencing HPI as a result of post 2000 economic decisions. As I say, the consequences are clear for all to see, and evasive action could have been taken. The fact that, collectively, nothing has been done to stop it leads me to believe that this is their desired outcome, or that they have no other way to mitigate their problem than by getting the home owning public to foot the bills. I don't think any other chancellor of any other political persuasion would have done anything else. (IMO) ABB

That looks like avery good idea, frugalista, but we would need to be confident that governments over the next 21 years will keep their side of the deal. Given their recent handwashing over state pension provision (all the money mysteriously disappeared from the pot), I am wary. (20 years ago, I thought they were 'safe') ABB

Don't agree, the HPI is a global, not uniquely British, phenomenon. NuLab are just follwing the Fed, and their commitment to Bretton-woods II, as well as the injection of liquidity follwing the dot com crash. (or at least that is my counter-theory) The consequences of this, whilst possibly unforseen at the time, are clear now. Question is how do they get out of this one? ABB