manbearpig

Despite the fairly racist comments, this is an interesting thread. Here is my much needed perspective as a millennial, because there are clearly many idiotic baby boomers contributing that probably haven't travelled further than Spain in their lives. I moved to London roughly 8 years a go after graduating. Having worked hard, now I'm earning more that £100k a year, which I would never have been able to achieve in the regions. But I'm having to buy in Lewisham, just to get more than a 500sq ft 1 bedroom apartment, which I would have afforded 4 years a go where I live now (a nice area in zone 2). I'll literally be living next to the dregs of the UK. However, the thing about London is that it advances your career prospects several times over any other part of the UK. Once I'm ready to move I probably won't even move back to the regions, but somewhere else in the world. If you can do well in London, the world is open to you, because you work and learn from the best people in the world (nobody good would stay in fecking Burnley for example). Most of the HQs in financial service, insurance, law are in London, and having worked with global multinationals with stakeholders across the globe, I cringe as the prospect of moving to one of the poor, uncultured, ignorant regional towns in this country. Tell this a clone of me who never left the regions and they would have told you what I've done in the last decade or so, was impossible. However if you're here and have no real career or prospects of earning a good living its hellish. There are a lot of people here that are 'have nots' with no ability to ever get what they want. It's not being nice being surrounded by things you can never get, which is why the underachievers probably move out.

Another 2-8% further over the next 5 years in nominal terms at best IMO. The bottom has been found, and it will not crash again unless there is another financial meltdown. Double digit falls over the short term are just silly, and its about time those that believe big falls are still going to occur wake up. The property market is just too bullish, and sentiment goes a long way when the masses are involved.

What are the £2m new builds like? Are they like they as poorly built as the cheaper housing? I don't understand why anyone would opt to buy a newbuild over a renovated early 19th century house, especially when they have £2m to throw around.

This is the basic tempate we use: They have to forward written letters to vendors, so be careful with your language. "Your address The date To whom it may concern Re: Address of Property Further to our viewings on [dates], we are pleased to be in a position to offer to purchase the freehold/ leasehold [delete as appropriate] on the above property for £[offer in numerical format] ([offer in words] pounds sterling). This offer is on the basis that the property is taken off the market immediately and is subject to survey and valuation. Our offer reflects the poor condition of the internal/ external [delete as appropriate] fabric of the building, the falling property market and our strong position as prospective purchasers. Given that [address] will be vacant over the winter months/ is vacant at present [if relevant], I trust our desire for a swift completion will recommend this offer to the vendor. Stagnant Property Market As you are no doubt aware property prices have fallen substantially in recent months and continue to do so. [Now specify prices of properties in the street that have sold, and the large number still on the market in the vicinity]. Essential Repair Works [address] is in a poor state of repair/ poor decorative order [delete as appropriate] and requires substantial capital input to bring it up to a habitable standard. Discussions with a local builder suggest that it will cost at least £x to replace the windows/ re-plaster/ fit a basic kitchen/ install central heating [delete as appropriate]. Position of Purchasers We confirm that we are first-time buyers and thus in a chain-free position. Our finances are in place and we have instructed a local solicitor to act on our behalf in any property purchase. As a result we would be able to complete a sale quickly. Should this offer be acceptable, our conveyancer’s contact details are Name Address [if you have any questions relating to the condition or contents of the property ask them here]. I look forward to hearing from you at your earliest opportunity. Yours faithfully Your full names"

LOL, nothing of any interest is going to happen this winter. House prices are not going to fall (or rise), the economy is not going to get any worse, the population is not going to die of swine flu. If economic Armageddon was going to occur it would have started by now. Those constantly posting 'the end is nigh', are looking more and more insane as the month go by.

How closely does the housing market follow the patterns of the stock markets? I would say they are very different, and the psychology behind the buying and selling of equities is very different to the emotion driven housing market. People don't even consider a mortgage as a debt FFS.

Now all the really solid arguments for waiting before buying have been crushed by the HPI over the past 6 months, I don't see how anything can stop it in the short term. It took 2 years for vendors to start lowering their asking prices. Now after another taste of HPI, they aren't going to start dropping it in a hurry again. Whether you believe it or not, for 99% of the population, the house price crash is OVER. People don't understand the economic problems to come in the future, and won't do until the end of next year, when they start feeling the effects of it. That is when stage 2 of falls will occur, not this winter, as many are hoping. There is no point wait any longer, unless you are in it for the long haul, and want to wait for another 1-2 years. A huge proportion of people on this site, let alone the typical sheeple, will not want to wait that long.

Look at that mean trend line. We are there NOW! House prices are AT the historical trend now. This much loved graph is meaningless.

People are worried because most planned to buy towards the end of this year, not in 2 years when interest rates start falling and the depression gets real. As things stand, prices are practically at peak prices in lots of areas, hence the panic!

I'm sure overseas buyers have a large part to play in house prices increasing in London. With the devaluation of the pound, they must be getting them for 2/3rds of peak prices.

Well apart from DrBubb who saw this bull trap, I think its fair to say that it caught most others by surprise. I actually remember reading through the post Drbubb made back in april, and though there was no chance of a bull market straight after the insane falls over winter, but he was right! I have my doubts about a bear market forming again, mainly because of the way the stock market is climbing so quickly, and the fact nearly everyone in this country regardless of whether you are buying or selling, wants house prices to go up. But I guess I didn't believe a bull market could develop either...

I really do hope you're right! I would prefer if things did return to boom times, and the last decade was a sustainable time in history. But in reality, the long term looks incredibly bleak. Hyperinflation isn't worth worrying about imo, because if it does occur, whatever precautions you take now won't make a bit of difference in such a ******ed up society. If there are any real signs of hyperinflation over the next few years, I will be the first one to emigrate. I could quite easily stick my middle finger up at GB, and leave as I have no real ties to this country. Funny not a single bull has commented in this thread. Has HPC banned the lot of them?

After reading this thread in full, I've come to the following conclusion. 1. Those that have bought already believe prices are going up/stabalising, due to the 'dash for the assets', inflation etc.. 2. Those that have not bought yet think prices are falling further, due to employment, tax increases, budget deficit etc.. IMO Gordo seems to have done it, and house prices are going up on average. Prices in the short term would shoot up if lending was relaxed, but over the medium term, things look pretty bad, or good, depending on your bias. Either buy now, and try to get a deal at as close to Feb09 prices as possible, which will be very hard in the current market, or wait another 2 years, and see what happens. This bull run might last until next year, wiping out all the falls altogather.

Its happening and its very real!! Try buying a house now, and you will be shocked! Things have change a lot since the start of the year, and the new boom is getting bigger, not slowing down.

Don't what sort of areas you lot live in, but in good parts of my city, houses are flying of the market within days. Asking prices have increased to 2007 levels, and lots of people are giving asking, or very close to it, and sometimes over. There is still a massive lack of supply of anything worth buying! Obviously things can't stay like this for much longer than a few months, but the madness isn't over yet. I can't see slowing down until the new year. The media has created a frenzy, and the sheeple are laping it up. Have a look at MSE and see how the attitude has changed. This is no longer a buyers market!