Brian Potter

If you think this wont affect everyone you must be on drugs. I was a casulaty of the last crash/recession through no fault of my own. Its not pleasant being made redundant because the **** has dropped out of the economy. Be careful what you wish for.

unfortunately, my brother has fallen into this trap and no amount of talking will make him see sense. He has remortgaged three times to release equity and is still in debt. Now there is nowhere else to go and the big bills are landing. His case is not unique. Debt will cause a crash - purely and simply. Unfortunately it will be painful for us all.

I could not agree more. three and a half years ago we bought a new build house of £140k moving from our £78K semi. Even though we were massively within our mortgage budget I still worried about such a large morgage. Now three years on the house is valued at over £200K. This plays tricks on the mind - you start to look at £300K houses and think 'thats not bad'. Luckily I carry a wet fish around with me to give myself a sharp slap when this happens. Reality of the price insanity then returns. Its all fantasy wealth and I've not been fooled.

Couldn't agree more. This is the single biggest issue facing our society today. And totally relevant to House Prices because they are an alternative investment to a traditional pension plan.

Its as simple as this: The country's pension promises to the public sector are unaffordable. I dont give a monkey's what people have been promised - they have been misled. My brother is a Copper. He argues that his £75k lump sum, early retirement after 50 and £19k a year is carved in stone. He is 32 now and he is going to be very, very disappointed. The changes which will occur over the next 20 years in this country will be frightening. I see lots of trouble as the future generations are asked to pay for promises they did not make. That is immoral and they will rightly object to it.

I think consumer debt will be the main driving force behind house prices. In my view the HPC will be a side effect of this debt burden. People have had a party based on imagined wealth over the past few years and the bill will land shortly. The credit card bill for this Christmas in March 2006 will be an interesting time. All IMO of course.

I could not agree more. People who dont have kids and get to their forties can sometimes be.... shall we say.. anally retentive and intolerant. Not all, but definately a significant number. Kids require you to put them first and unconditionally so. Parenthood is a burden and a responsibility but so is everything worthwhile in life.

It's happening up north too. Properties which didnt sell in 2004 going back on the market 10% higher. The sellers hope that if they need to reduce by 15% for a sale they will get what they originally wanted last year. But you would have to be a total numpty to fall for that!

.....and with 12000+ flats coming on line in manchester in next 12 months things are looking wobbly!

Jeeps, I too live in Bolton and the prices are just nuts. I was recently in the South East and can honestly say that prices up here rival those. Its been pure gold rush. The prices people have been paying over the past couple of years defy belief. I hope people like jam butties - cos thats all they can afford after the mortgage payments!

The market IS falling. Unfortunately numpties are still in denial. My neighbour had their mews property on the market for 8 months last year asking £220K - no takers. (they bought 3 years ago for £135K) They subsequently took it off the market whilst they had a baby only to remarket the property for £240K last April. 2 viewings in 7 month and FA offers. People are either just thick or the EA's are making promises they cant keep.

Bought my first house in 1995. 100% mortgage. Myself and partner only been working for 6 months after redundancy in early ninties and return to education. Had no trouble whatsoever. We stayed well within our available limit and had a discounted rate for first two years. Never looked back - bought in 1995 at bottom of market and moved up in 2002 just before insanity set in. No super decision on our part - just fluke. Would not dream of buying at the moment. It will come back to reality and when it does buy only within the boundaries of what you can afford plus a little contingency. Remember Mr Macawber!

I agree if they are contributing regardless - might as well be in it. 'Company schemes - best possible!' just what a financial advisor said to me. Unfortunately, I wont be working for one company for 30+ years therefore I will need to move my pension around as the industry is not flexible without huge admin transfer costs. Several companies. Several frozen pensions = f all. Tax breaks are NOT what its all about.

I work in construction. I always said I would never buy a new house - until I did three years ago. I have regretted it ever since. Build quality is laughable, customer after sales service non existant and they arn't VFM. I bought one because I thought it would be less hassel but it isnt.

I would rather control my own money than have a suit making decisions on my behalf - Pensions industry has shown itself to be incompetant. Pensions are, IMO, the biggest bomb shell waiting to explode in this country. I mean, forget the house prices. When the governments of the future, whatever political persuation, finally let the public know that the country cannot afford the pensions, it will hit the fan huge time! Already the public sector unions are getting hot under the collar - we aint seen nothing yet. Just wait until they have to tell, teachers, nurses, firefighters, Police etc that they cannot have what they were promised because the private sector cannot fund it - It will be very very interesting.

I agree with a previous post - March 2006 is when the debt will be called in. A key month IMO.

The construction industry is - take my word for it - running at record levels at the moment. In the Manchester area work is guaranteed for at least 12-18 months with work in progress. I am a freelance consultant and I could literally fill my week twice over. I too am worried about recession, however, the silver lining is the Olympics which will suck capacity out of the industry for years leaving the regions under resourced. Since I am naturally a half empty glass kind of guy I am cautious as the level of flat builds for example cannot be sustained, however, construction has an ageing skilled and management force with no new blood coming in significantly for the last 15 years. Job losses of the scale of the 90's are not possible because the people dont exist. Skilled trades are generally now from Poland, Slovenia, Croatia etc. If you dont believe me walk around any site in Manchester.

The last crash was driven by huge interest rates which caused a credit crunch in the early nineties. Over 400,000 in construction and associated industries lost their jobs. It was a period which caused myself huge hardship and destroyed my father's self belief. I was young and did not own property, never the less it was a life changing time. I got on the the housing ladder in 95 - a historic low and have been careful ever since. It has always been obvious to me that the prices people were paying were simply crazy. My partner and myself earn very good money comparively. This we have been banking for the last three years because we know rough times are ahead again. Debt will destroy the economy with huge consequences for us all. In Manchester I still see thousands af flats being constructed for an imaginary end user. 18 months to 2 years and I believe the wheel will come off. It gives me no pleasure but I feel its inevitable.

Next door neighbours have just put up their house for sale for the second time since April '04. April 2004 - asking price £219, 950 September 2005 - asking price £239, 950 It didnt sell first time round - so htf will it now? Either the EA is thick or the vendor is.

I also am self employed and as a consequence have been making hay, banking and watching from the sidelines. People rarely heed warnings or past lessons. My brother fell into the 'I'm rich cos my house has doubled' trap. Spent the lot - now he is losing his home with little or no hope of regaining a foot hold. I take no joy in this. You sometimes can't make people listen.

I quite fancy Fiona Bruce. Nothing to do with thread - just saying.

Just dont scratch yer nads!

I have been following this forum for a number of months and generally I agree with the need for house price stabilisation/correction. However, I would like to issue a note of caution. If a house price crash does occur it will, in my view, be due to the levels of debt within the country and not particularly the interest rates moving up or down 0.25%. I am a freelance professional in the construction industry and see first hand how many residential developments are in the pipeline. To me it is common sense that the market is becoming totally saturated with btl properties. In the Times homes supplement this weekend, Manchester was identified as having a significantly weaker rental market for flats and that at least 50% of flats sold are btl. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of flats in the process of construction in Manchester. Small developers are still buying land at unrealistic prices - chasing the rainbow. My industry is often described as the barometer of the economy, and whilst it is true that at the moment we are incredibly busy, I see clouds gathering. If we do have a crash, this will cause a serious downturn in consumer spending which will affect us all. Some forum members seem to be praying for a financial catastrophy. All I am saying is - be careful what you wish for......you might just get it!

Its always been pretty obvious to me that the insurance companies dont offer annuities because they care about you. Statistically I will die and they will win. Its just business.