Billy Ray Valentine

Really? Good stuff.

One sold for £85k in 2006, could possibly (probably I'd say) be the same one but hard to tell. Looks like a BTL trying to cut their losses and get out.

Loving this thread.

Now that is interesting.

I think you can. What many mean by the 'ripple' effect is specifically the effect on prices of people from London selling up at bubble prices and relocating in other, cheaper parts of the country thereby pushing up prices in those areas. Then people in those areas with their newly acquired equity will themselves sell up and relocate to cheaper part of the country, thereby pushing up prices again and so on. To my mind this is mostly a nonsense and demonstrably so. If the 'ripple effect' was going to take place then why hasn't this happened long before now? Places within reasonable commuting distance to London might have benefitted from a London 'ripple' but the further away from the capital you get this ripple quickly becomes very diluted, if it exists at all. A 'ripple' on the way down could arguably work in a different way, namely due to sentiment and the effect on finance of a falling market.

My first thought also.................... Had to laugh when it intimated Dennis Waterman was one of London's movers and shakers.

The article says he makes £40k, but it says that £5k of that is from his music side-line, so I doubt that would have been taken into consideration when applying for a mortgage, or would it? So, £600k house, £210k mortgage. Even if they sell for £600k, less costs, would leave them with £375k. They then want to use this £375k to buy a 4 bed (in SE??) and leverage up on BTL up north to give them £2k pm income? It's a laughable article, designed to lure in the greedy and gullible. A lot of these blulshit articles about just lately, are the VI's getting desperate?

Not sure, when you look at the barcode look each one should begin and end with two equally spaced thin lines. These same thin lines should be in the middle of the bar code also. These two lines represent 6 in a bar code, I think.

Rate rises are one mechanism for bringing house prices down but falls are not reliant on this factor alone. London could easily pop without rate rises and that in itself could be the factor to send the dominos tumbling.

double post

Some crazy examples Count. in my £200k or less search I'm seeing plenty of reductions, a higher rate of places on with multiple agents, numerous failed sales and plenty of places still lingering on the market from last spring. Also seeing shared ownership being pushed more overtly, which to me is also another sign of a market ready to blow. Anecdotally I know people who have adult children moving back in with them (with partner in tow!) despite it being cramped, to start saving for a deposit for a place. Also know and have been told of several people who have massively leveraged up the last 6 months (4.5x joint salary jobbies, people in their thirties, who probably not incidentally bought a year or two before the bust), which makes me think the market must be damn near to running out of greater fools, if we aren't already at that point. Not to mention the fact that if prices are where they are because people are seriously stretching themselves to borrow at these insane multiples where the driver for further increase is going to come from at the very least. Can't be now far from it all going pop surely?

Yes, just noticed it has changed. Says Reduced/Added in my searches though.........

Yes, but they've been falling for a few months prior though? If they do continue to fall in the run up to the GE then they would have been falling for at least 6 months.

That place sold for 40% more in 2007 than it did in 2004, Jesus wept......... I guess the recent HTB, 0.5 BR fuelled increase might just cover the buying and selling costs.

Surely when/if it goes down there's going to be no where that is unaffected?

I'm staggered at the increase between 2004-2007. In many places in Northants prices weren't much higher in 2007 than in 2004, though they too are now in some places 5%+ higher than in 2007. Many people who highly leveraged into BTL's In 2004-2005 in the expectation of another quick doubling of prices have ultimately lost money already, even with all the Government props.

What's necessarily depressing about those figures? Not greatly different from figures you've posed before unless I'm mistaken?

If the developers haven't paid for that advert article I'll be very surprised. In fact I imagine many of the people in that queue were there at that time because they had applied weeks/months in advance and had been given an appointment for that time to see an 'advisor'. Maybe I'm being too cynical, but I doubt it!

To be fair if he did sell his house in 2003 he wasn't far wrong, and if, as your post queries, he did sell a couple of years later then he was pretty much bang on the money, considering that the masses were generally parroting the 'houses only go up' line at the time.

But we're still on the cusp of deflation despite all the QE we've so far seen?

Wouldn't large ECB QE have a negative effect on the Euro, making it more expensive for those in that currency to purchase UK property anyway?

The Counts point was to show that QE in the UK had no significant effect on housing in parts of the continent. Why should QE in Europe necessarily aid in more HPI in the hugely inflated UK market, why not HPI in 'cheap as chips' Spain and Bulgaria instead?

Perhaps some stock market money found its way into the London house market which was one of several contributing factors to the insane HPI seen in the capital in recent years, but I'm sceptical about the effect it had on houses elsewhere outside the SE. Northampton was falling, albeit slowly, before the introduction of HTB. This combined with low rates are the contributing factors to any HPI here from the introduction of HTB through June-July last year. As to the banks lending more, what they can lend has in effect been curtailed by MMR and other restrictions.

I'm still confused as to the possible effect this may have on UK house prices. Isn't there a chance the effect will be minimal? Was UK QE the cause of HPI? it was 0.5 BR, FLS, mortgage forbearance, HTB, IMO.