Billy Ray Valentine

I think it's applying to the whole country. I agree with what you say, but it's a start, and will help turn sentiment.

Good news.

Prices back to 2007 levels where I am, not much wage inflation since then, so there hasn't really been a correction to speak of - yet. Perhaps where you are prices haven't got as far to fall as many other areas of the country.

We must be pretty close to that point already. Prices already too high for most, and MMR only just been introduced. Prices will crash at some point, of that I have no doubt, it's just a matter of when. My bet is on the near future.

I thought that it had ended for mortgages. However, it has been noted that certain banks drew down a larger than normal amount of money in the window before FL ended, which may give these institutions enough to lend at continued lower rates for a while longer. We won't start to truly see the effects of the withdrawal of FLS until going into next year IMO.

It would obviously accelerate a crash, but for a while now I've thought that it won't need to move at all for this bubble to deflate. Mortgage lending is already out of synch with the base rate. FTB with a modest deposit won't be getting the 3% rates but more like the 4-4.5% deals, with rates when they come off their initial fix around 4.5-4.75 not uncommon. Now FLS has gone (won't see the true effects of this on mortgage rate until later this year) and with the introduction of MMR, the conditions are possibly in place to begin to see falls.

Funding For Lending.

I notice plenty of reductions on Rightmove. One place in my street was on for 2007 asking price, and after 6-8 weeks a sold sign went up. 2-3 weeks on (a few days ago) a 'For Sale' sign had gone back up. On Rightmove the price has been reduced. Another place in the same street has reduced its price by 5K within a month of it coming to market. I felt that the market was beginning to turn a couple of months back and recent activity I'm seeing is confirming this for me at the moment. I think by years end sentiment and prices will be in full U-turn.

Yeah, I'm feeling like that more and more now. I'm about to STR myself. I think I've got my timing about right. A couple of places on my street have sold in recent months for just shy of what they were going for at the 2007 peak, and I seriously can't see them going a great deal higher from here on in.

Scoring political points by going against Clegg's comment regarding possible intervention regarding the bubble?

Is this just Cameron point scoring off of Clegg's comment about backing the BOE should they feel the need to act on the current bubble? Cameron can say, 'look potential voters, I wasn't for these unpopular measures taken against the bubble, that was the BOE and the Lib Dems. Looks that way to me.

Yes. I was thinking more along the lines of the time it will take for the effects of MMR to be reflected in any MOM data.

Do you know most of the people in the UK who receive an inheritance then, and what they do with the money? I've seen friends receive an inheritance and use it to pay off mortgage debt, squirrel money away, start small businesses, or just spend it on having fun. Don't know any who stuck it into BTL.

The conditions for this have now pretty much fallen into place, too.

Did the BTL brigade jump in and snap up houses when prices fell by more than 20% in a relatively short period of time when this bubble originally burst? Didn't seem like that round my way. Prices only stabilised due massive Government intervention. When prices start drifting down it's more likely to be BTL landlords jumping ship accelerating the falls rather than the other round. I don't see many people on this site specifically wishing 'misfortune on others' either. Some a bit short on sympathy perhaps, but that is not the same thing at all.

MMR has only just been introduced, it's going to take a while for its impact to be properly felt.

What makes you think a screwed-over Joe Chav will kick up any more of a fuss than the currently screwed-over prudent?

Sounds about right to me.

Maybe it reflects in part a change in sentiment by prospective FTB brought on by the ridiculous and without-fundamentals increase in asking prices over the last 6-12 months?

Around that on average. Depends though, You could easily pay close to a tenner for a sirloin in a supermarket, or 2.50 for fresh cut rump in the same place as I do on occasion.

IMO the price-rises were already slowing down/coming to a stop 2-3 months ago. The recent HTB inspired madness is going soon reveal itself to most as a false dawn IMO. Plenty of crazy asking prices, but these places are mostly still sitting on the market now since before Christmas. Plenty of big reductions too. One 3 bed semi I noticed was on for £200K (insane) a couple of months back, actually had its prices reduced to £175K, and still sits on the market. Low supply too - so this being the case, where's all this demand for buying at these prices? Plenty of kite flyers around with asking prices 15-20% higher than 12 months back (mainly due to HTB inspired sentiment) but the small window in achieving these prices has closed for most and this before MMR. Effect of FLS withdrawal still to really come into effect. Prices already at the limit in terms of affordability. Possibility of and interest rate raise, even if small. Recent changing of sentiment in the media. A combination of different factors are going to prevent further serious HPI and a fall back in prices.

What do you mean?

Was this website even running in 2000? I think you'll find the Government are allowing repossessions to happen now.

You're talking about things as if they are a foregone conclusion which they are not. The 200% increase under Labour you mention - it should be noted that this began not long after the bottom of the early 90's crash, so perhaps the market had undershot a little around the mid-90's prior to Labours election. What was the house price to wage ratio in the period 94-97? Also, the 20% (+, I should add) slide from 2008 on was only arrested due to massive Government intervention. I struggle to see how their is going to be significant house price increases (discounting London) in the near future when prices are so out of whack with average wages. House price to wage ratio where I am has got to be x7. There's only so much people are going to be able to pay for a house, and we're already pretty much past that limit, even with such low interest rates. I find it hard to not envision lower prices this time next year.

The bold bit compared to lending practices post MMR changes is what we're all wondering about.