Bearfacts

Just had time to scan the Times 'Need to Know' preview of the weeks economic indicators this morning before dashing out. I cant quote word for word but the thrust of it was that data due to be released today by RICS was expected to show a balance of 70% of surveyors reporting falling prices as against stable or rising prices reflecting the latest data from the Halifax which showed a jump in prices of 1.9% !!! Words fail me and this is from the Times !

Good point. THese figures have been BA'd ...Brown Adjusted. Roll on the next RICS release - should put the Bulls firmly back in their pen.

DON'T PANIC !! In the last crash there were reported price rises too. I think even two months worth back to back but I can't bothered checking. Needless to say the falls resumed and the slide continued. To be honest I had been expecting one of these for some time. I doubt this is anything other than statistical noise- all the other surveys including the leading ones like RICS and mortgage approvals point down. There is no way we will have rising prices in the middle of the deepest recession for 60 years - none. I should ignore it. Expect normal service to be resumed next month. The real downside will be putting up with the muppets who will no doubt start an 'I told you so' campaign and vendors who will now retrench - but it won't last. Wonder if Brown had anything to do with thee stats ?

DON'T PANIC !! In the last crash there were reported price rises too. I think even two months worth back to back but I can't bothered checking. Needless to say the falls resumed and the slide continued. To be honest I had been expecting one of these for some time. I doubt this is anything other than statistical noise- all the other surveys including the leading ones like RICS and mortgage approvals point down. There is no way we will have rising prices in the middle of the deepest recession for 60 years - none. I should ignore it. Expect normal service to be resumed next month. The real downside will be putting up with the muppets who will no doubt start an 'I told you so' campaign and vendors who will now retrench - but it won't last. Wonder if Brown had anything to do with thee stats ?

Yes , I know it should be in anecdotals but I feel it is a good indicator of what is really happening o the ground. First my mother's flat: 2 bedder on a nice development in a picturesque village that is just up the road from Sevenoaks - which has suffered the worst HPI of almost any town. It has been on the market since August 2008. Originally priced at £230,000 ( I stifled a laugh when the agent told me ). Had a little bit of interest initially and even a couple of offers but they came to nothing in the end. Have been trying to convince my brother that we need to slash the price instead of chasing the market down since. Yesterday the agents rang around advising that the flat should be priced in the range of £145k to £160K. By my reckoning thats a 37% drop in asking price - so far. Second - friend of mine has been trying to sell since August too. 6 bedroomed Victorian terrace in a town near Dartford. Originally priced at £300K. Friend has just accepted offer at £220K but is not hopeful that it will complete and was told by his solicitor to expect a down valuation. I make that a drop of 27% if it completes. Finally was managed to sell my father in laws flat this November for £150k ( this is London ) - which was the same price he paid for it in 2005. Flats in same block now asking £135. At peak they were being valued ay £180k. SO I make that a drop of at least 25%. So the smallest fall of the properties that I have first hand experience of is 25% from the peak. These are real cases and only one has actually sold. My father in law had the cajones / sense to get ahead of the market instead of chasing it down.

Interesting - doesn't RB say that California is our 'sister market' or somethjing like that. As in, if you look back at the records you find that the UK mirrors the patterns in California's housing market. Similar arguments were used to justify Californias bubble i.e limited amount of land and high immigration. Where they lead we follow - looks about right to me 50% off at least.

I get it - you start with an artificially low rate to lure the mugs in and then after two years wack it up to something a bit more realistic - -genius ! You could call it a 'teaser rate'. Can't see any problems with this atall. Why hasnt anyone thought of this before ?

I have noticed a couple of posts on here in recent days reflecting the desperate bids of EAs and even government minsters to talk the market up ( will they never learn ?!). So I thought I would give you the news from the frontline here in the South East ( where we are of course immune to the recession because so many people work in finance ). For the record Mrs BF works in an EAs office and has been for the last two years. Contrary to claims that buyer interest has picked up and houses are starting to sell Mrs BF reports absolutley no change from before Christmas when b*gger all was happening with no buyer interest at all. Fortunately for us Mrs BF works in the lettings department where things are very very busy. Before landlords get too excited though she reported that there is still a glut of available properties to accomodate tennants so rents are still dropping. We are currently in the process of negotiating our own rent down - will let you know how it goes.

Sorry to break this to you Whojamaflip but I was listening very carefuly and Preston clearly said 6 years of falling house prices.

The real point here is the cynicism and boneheaded stupidity of the government. They have learnt absolutley nothing. And are immoral to boot. The UK economy is in recession because we produce sweet FA and have been living on debt for the last ten years at least. How do our masters attempt to resolve our economic woes - not by investing money into research and development , encouraging manufacturing or anything else remotely productive or of use but by borrowing money to give to banks that lent irresponsibly to go and lend irresponsibly again in a desperate bid to push house prices back up to levels that proved to be unsustainable. You really couldnt make it up ... I dont know whether to laugh, cry or just leave this country. Our governmment are now borrowing money from our children to ensure that they will never be able to own a property ! UNBELIEVABLE

Is this the same FSA that just reduced the banks capital requirements ?!! Right hand / left hand seem to be operating independently.

If the banks want their arses saved then they should 1. Cut salaries to levels that reflect the non-productive work that they do and 2. Pay back the obscene bonuses they have helped themselvers to over the last 20-30 years. I get this really sick feeling that what has happened is we taxpayers have in effect been paying the bankers obscene bonuses. In times gone by ( when people werent so apathetic ) I suspect the people would have rioted, hauling the bastards from their offices and beating them to death in the streets.

But, but I thought everyone agreed that massive borrowing and bailouts were the only solution - thats what Gordon told us. Can we e-mail this link to Darling / Brown ?

You were very good, it isn't easy talking live on radio.. you did very well. I agree they did seem very keen to get you off. Seems they are happy to give that **** Coogan free reign.

The figures are due next week ! Poss as early as Monday 29th. I'm going for a big fat fall of 2.8% to make up for the statistical error of last months laughable 0.4 %.

Sorry old boy - a cruel trick I know - but it made you look !

Downwards that is and accelerating nicely it seems. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...movers_by_index

Latest news from the frontline ( Mrs BF works for an EA ). EA , who expanded his business in the summer of 07, is now closing all offices bar one. Thats three offices closed. No pick up on the sales side. Lettings still very busy but a glut of property is available and rents are falling. Agent knows of many businesses on the high street which are about to close and join the rows of boarded up shop windows. Commented that there is no credit available out there. Banks are, in fact, clawing back all they can at whatever cost to businesses / individuals. EA has actually pulled money out of the bank and put it in a safe to keep their hands off it. Mrs BF is part of the skeleton crew left to manage the last remaining office.

What really worries me is that 'he is preparing a raft of new measures to tackle the economy next year'. God help us ! Why can't the d*ckhead just leave well alone. Everything he touches turns to sh*te - he's Midas in reverse.

I have a theory : Gordon Brown told the CML, Halifax and Nationwide not to make forecasts. What do you reckon ? I think Browns fingers are all over the place .. I expect he is telling the MPC what to do, the banks and building societies and anyone else he can bully. I hate the man.

Pound seems to be sinking very rapidly since the unemployment figures and BOE vote came out ... now down to 1.08 to the Euro. So thats my summer holiday cancelled. Thank you so much Brown/ King. Whatever happened to all Brown's boasts about strong fundamentals ? Exactly what fundamentasl was he looking at ? The UK economy is a basket case.

Why oh why isnt anybody ( HPCers excluded ) pointing out that it was too much cheap credit that got us into this mess in the first place, therefore even more , even cheaper credit can't possibly be the solution. Seems utterly insane to me. I have the feeling that they are just going to make a bad situation much much worse. ZIRP didnt work in Japan - why should it work in the US ? Feels like another attempt to kick the problem, on down the road - leaving an even bigger mess for someone else to deal with in the future. Afterall - what the hell is going to happen when rates have to go back up ? I suspect we'll all be stuck with zero interest rates for years and years thus destroying our one weapon against inflation - or is that the point ?

God they really are desperate / criminally insane. How much more of our money are they going to throw at the bottomless pit that is the housing market ? How much have they already lost through their crazy shared equity schemes ? I sincerely hope the media take them to task over this - encouraging the young to buy overpriced properties in a falling market is not just criminal it is immoral. Funny how this comes out on the day the Barclays prediction on houseprice falls broke - co-incidence ?! I think not. I expect Brown made this scheme up late last night just after he saw the Telegraph headline. It got to the stage where I really hated the Tories in 96-97 for all their corruption but this lot are worse - corrupt, incompetent, hypocritical and having no morals whatsoever - they are scum presenting themselevs as the caring sharing party - I loathe this lot - who to vote for now ? That is the question.

Tell me this is a joke ? I laughingly once suggested to a friend that the next thing they would do would be to stuff money in people's pockets and tell them to go and buy a house - they can't be serious ?

I think Mr Varley might be getting a phone call from the Prime Minister today, and not to enquire about his health. Brown must be seething.