House Price Crash In 2010

[gfromls]

That's only half the story in my opinion, the people who buy the securities from the banks dictate how much the banks are willing to lend to their customers. The banks are the middle man in the chain. They simply bend to feed demand.

thay have done in the past, that't without question.

but it can't go on forever

you have to look at what supported the market on the way up - of course your right, the amount of liquidity sloshing around the world has made life so so easy for uk banks to aquire funds, and i would agree that the banks have lent out money to any tom dick or harry for any property at any price. infact it's in the banks best interest to sell joe bloggsa mortgage for 200,000 instead of 100,000.

but in order for us to get to that stage (200,000 instead of 100,000) the banks must have, at some stage urged their survayors not to down-value property.

how eals could thing like this happen

http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?co...p;pcsaCode=LS15

imagine a survayor with 10 years experiance going to value a house in a street in 2002/2003 he knows (because he valued lots of houses in that street) that price's went from 85,000 in 1993 to 99,000 in 2001.

he's now going to look at a house (that is just the same standard as the others he's valued) and it's on at 189,000. the only reason he could possibly let it go- is because the banks (who ultimatly pay his wage) have urged him, or his supperiors to do so......

now imagine the boardroom meetings at the big uk lenders now 2007, they have before them all the info they need, the fact that ftb's are all but extict, btl now unprofitable, they know how much bad debt thair is, they know that rates have gone up and fear they could go up a lot further.

on the one hand they do (still) have access to massive funds.... but they now fear that the market, might just not keep going up forever after all.

they could - and i believe definatly would (if they havent already) put the breaks on the market overnight, and they have the perfect tool (survayors) at their disposal.

don't get me wrong i'm not disputing the liquidity argument.

but it's not the only trigger.

[grey shark]

That's only half the story in my opinion, the people who buy the securities from the banks dictate how much the banks are willing to lend to their customers. The banks are the middle man in the chain. They simply bend to feed demand.

Yes the middle man is usually the best place to be , he does the deal , takes his cut and moves on to the next deal .

[Selling up]

It's easy to be seduced by statistics to an absurd degree of precision.

Everyone needs to remember that "the market" is only a proxy marker of what most of us care about: all most of us really need is one seller panicking enough to sell us a good house at a low price.

Therefore unquantifiable sentiment is every bit as important as rigorous mathematics: It is the deal that matters, not the market.

[JohnG]

With MIRAS, to be clear what happened was that in the April pre-budget report the chancellor of the time announced that in August of that year double tax relief for unmarried couples would be abolished. That meant that if you bought before August you would get 3 or 4 months of double tax relief. In august I am told that it was abolished for everyone no matter when they bought. I am not convinced that this small advantage is what caused the spike in transaction volumes during 1988, I think it was actually a speculative bubble.

Nearly. MIRAS was to continue to apply for all mortgages completed before the abolition date, so the benefit was expected to be 'forever', so long as you got in quickly enough.

At that time the average age of the FTB was about 24/ 25. Abolition of MIRAS effectively sucked the next 2 years FTBs into the market, after which there were very few FTBs around, and certainly no BTL to take up the slack. It's supply & demand, innit?

It was different last time because this time the average FTB is around 30, so that's lots of potential frustrated young FTBs and BTLers ready to jump in at any sign of a softening market.

Edited January 30, 2007 by JohnG

[frugalista]

Nearly. MIRAS was to continue to apply for all mortgages completed before the abolition date, so the benefit was expected to be 'forever', so long as you got in quickly enough.

Are you sure? A poster on another forum swears blind it worked the other way. I can't find anything on the web to prove it one way or the other.

frug.

[Daft Boy]

I've actually looked into the last crash in a lot of detail. These two factors are not as significant as you think.

Interest rates rose from 8% to over 14% in 1988-89, which sounds like a big increase. However, IRs were very high throughout the 80s, very often over 10% and had been well over 12% only 2 years earlier. So they weren't quite the shock for most homeowners which is imagined (although those who had stretched themselves shortly before 1989 were certainly in deep trouble). Also, in some areas of the UK, prices were still rising through the period when IRs were going up and still rising after the IRs had started coming down, and only crashed once IRs were actually coming down.

With MIRAS, to be clear what happened was that in the April pre-budget report the chancellor of the time announced that in August of that year double tax relief for unmarried couples would be abolished. That meant that if you bought before August you would get 3 or 4 months of double tax relief. In august I am told that it was abolished for everyone no matter when they bought. I am not convinced that this small advantage is what caused the spike in transaction volumes during 1988, I think it was actually a speculative bubble.

Again in some UK regions, house prices peaked long after double MIRAS was abolished.

Also, note that there was a large recession brewing in the UK starting roughly in 1988. This was part of a global recession which affected nearly all Western economies, particularly the US. Unemployment went up across the western world, this part of the scenario was nothing to do with the ERM, house prices, or MIRAS. The recession itself was part of an unwinding of a credit boom which had started in the early-mid 80s.

frug.

Hi Guys, i think you all need to chill and move away from your screens and start walking the streets. The long awaited house price correction started around october 2006. Forget the hype

You are all being far to clinical in your reading of the markets. Over the last 40 years no one has ever understood why the corrections happen. There are always loads of "experts" after the event but never none before.

Forget IR and statistics because they have no bearing whatsoever. Save your energy and stop bloody analysing.

I might be daft but not as daft as I look.

I have only bought three houses over the last forty years. I only buy at the bottom of the market and STR at the top. I have a 100% track record using a simple formulae. I was able to retire at the ripe old age of 47 some 14 years ago on a private income because of it and some great investments. My track record speaks for itself.

On 12th december I cashed in all of my peps, isas and other investments built up over the last twenty years and put the money in high interest internet accounts. The reason for this was experience, something you cannot buy. The global markets have generally had a three year bull run that has run out of steam. Sell on the up and let the next mug have a little profit before the correction comes along this year.

I bought my first house in 1967 for £2000. It was two years old and had been bought for £2499 when new. It was STR in 1974 for £18000.

In 1977 I paid £11500 for a new build that had been on the market for £27500. I STR that in 1989 for £89000. I had twenty two couples chasing after that. I laughed all the way to the bank. I decided to live virtually rent free on my 40 foot boat and wait for the correction in the property market. In early 1994 I bought my existing property for £59000. It had been bought new in 1988 for £92000. In 1989 it was "valued" at £98000. At the moment it is paid for and "valued" at £220000.

Now don't get excited but I am about to put my house on the market to STR because I know that the house is worth more today than it will be for at least the next ten years.I know the time has come again. I have never been wrong but thats the problem with being a daft boy and keeping things simple. I will again sit tight for four or five years and buy back in at the bottom again.

Do your homework but keep it simple. Find the price of the building plot in pounds per square metre for the type of house you are seeking. Find the cost of a new build on the plot provided in pounds per square metre. Add the two together. That is the present true core cost of the property and will be mirrored in house price graph shown on this site. Buy below the line and you have a bargain. Buy above the line and you are paying for fresh air so beware. The more fresh air you purchase the bigger your problem. Never ever buy a a leasehold apartment because the plot and build price are always distorted . Thats why developers build them to maximise profit at your expence. Property is never an investment in the long term unless you buy low and sell high. In the long term average property prices only stay in line with average income.

All you bears will be right on for the next five years then it will become the turn of you bulls again.

--------------------

Buy to nest in not invest in

--------------------

In the dark depths of the lunatic asylum the daft boy is king.......Shakespeare

[Selling up]

Interesting post, DaftBoy. But you posted when everyone's asleep and it deserves to be read by more people so I'm going to bump it back to the top of the page...

[ex-MEWer]

I thought it was scheduled for April 07?

And by the Israelis not the yanks!

I read somewhere the Israelis can't strike without help from the Yanks and other Arab nations allowing flyovers.

ANyway, sounds like the propaganda war has resumed. Be afraid, be very afraid ...

http://newsmax.com/archives/ic/2007/1/30/132419.shtml?s=ic

[ivmcdermott]

And if you spent your time actually doing something productive, you'd be able to buy a house now! Its funny to read so many posts about how Brits dont do anything yet all these posts come from people sitting around wasting their time rather than , erm, doing something. sigh. Oh wait - its all the governments fault, for a minute I started believing in personal responsibility.

Good luck with your calculations.

Buy a house ?

I am completly mortgage free, I own my house and land outright. Worth currently 320k

This has only been achieved because a lot of people pay me a lot of money for my opinion (granted its not houses or mortgages).

Those opinions are formed by calculations, unlike a forum, I have hours to spend convincing a lot stuck up, intellectually infrerior, fat, rich middle class white males, that the software they will buy from my company will make them even more richer, fatter and will make their offspring fat and rich too.

Although I must concede I do retratc the statement of September 2010 for a crash. I did not factor in the 17,000 repossesions in 2006, this means a crash will occur in December 2008. Sorry for that.

You will see that I will adjust the prediction based on current events. Interest rates woiuld have to reach 7.25% and the number of repossesions would need to be over 20,000 a year to make a crash occur sooner. Either that or "Crash in the stock market". God forbid !!!

[jackalope]

That's only half the story in my opinion, the people who buy the securities from the banks dictate how much the banks are willing to lend to their customers. The banks are the middle man in the chain. They simply bend to feed demand.

Thanks for some great posts, you obviously know your stuff on this. Can you tell us what proportion of UK mortgages are securtised like this and how much of this is financed by the yen carry trade? I'm just trying to get a feel for how dependent the UK mortgage market is on the Japanese!

[Red Baron]

Hi Guys, i think you all need to chill and move away from your screens and start walking the streets. The long awaited house price correction started around october 2006. Forget the hype

You are all being far to clinical in your reading of the markets. Over the last 40 years no one has ever understood why the corrections happen. There are always loads of "experts" after the event but never none before.

Forget IR and statistics because they have no bearing whatsoever. Save your energy and stop bloody analysing.

I might be daft but not as daft as I look.

I have only bought three houses over the last forty years. I only buy at the bottom of the market and STR at the top. I have a 100% track record using a simple formulae. I was able to retire at the ripe old age of 47 some 14 years ago on a private income because of it and some great investments. My track record speaks for itself.

On 12th december I cashed in all of my peps, isas and other investments built up over the last twenty years and put the money in high interest internet accounts. The reason for this was experience, something you cannot buy. The global markets have generally had a three year bull run that has run out of steam. Sell on the up and let the next mug have a little profit before the correction comes along this year.

I bought my first house in 1967 for £2000. It was two years old and had been bought for £2499 when new. It was STR in 1974 for £18000.

In 1977 I paid £11500 for a new build that had been on the market for £27500. I STR that in 1989 for £89000. I had twenty two couples chasing after that. I laughed all the way to the bank. I decided to live virtually rent free on my 40 foot boat and wait for the correction in the property market. In early 1994 I bought my existing property for £59000. It had been bought new in 1988 for £92000. In 1989 it was "valued" at £98000. At the moment it is paid for and "valued" at £220000.

Now don't get excited but I am about to put my house on the market to STR because I know that the house is worth more today than it will be for at least the next ten years.I know the time has come again. I have never been wrong but thats the problem with being a daft boy and keeping things simple. I will again sit tight for four or five years and buy back in at the bottom again.

Do your homework but keep it simple. Find the price of the building plot in pounds per square metre for the type of house you are seeking. Find the cost of a new build on the plot provided in pounds per square metre. Add the two together. That is the present true core cost of the property and will be mirrored in house price graph shown on this site. Buy below the line and you have a bargain. Buy above the line and you are paying for fresh air so beware. The more fresh air you purchase the bigger your problem. Never ever buy a a leasehold apartment because the plot and build price are always distorted . Thats why developers build them to maximise profit at your expence. Property is never an investment in the long term unless you buy low and sell high. In the long term average property prices only stay in line with average income.

All you bears will be right on for the next five years then it will become the turn of you bulls again.

--------------------

Buy to nest in not invest in

--------------------

In the dark depths of the lunatic asylum the daft boy is king.......Shakespeare

Interesting post and I think you are spot on with regard to the current property cycle although I think there's a bit more steam left in it for 2007.

Age and experience win in the property game; one can safely ignore the young EAs who have never know anything other than a rising market.

[ivmcdermott]

45 people every day are being repossessed. The are being thrown out onto the streets. While the people that sold them the houses in the first place, are drinking champagne in the south of France.

It makes you wonder capitalist society really can work and make people happy.

[frugalista]

Can you tell us what proportion of UK mortgages are securtised like this and how much of this is financed by the yen carry trade? I'm just trying to get a feel for how dependent the UK mortgage market is on the Japanese!

Dunno about the carry trade, but the proportion of securitization, while it is still quite small, it rose sharply in 2005-6 and accounts for a lot of new lending.

frug.

[Guest mattsta1964]

Hi Guys, i think you all need to chill and move away from your screens and start walking the streets. The long awaited house price correction started around october 2006. Forget the hype

You are all being far to clinical in your reading of the markets. Over the last 40 years no one has ever understood why the corrections happen. There are always loads of "experts" after the event but never none before.

Forget IR and statistics because they have no bearing whatsoever. Save your energy and stop bloody analysing.

I might be daft but not as daft as I look.

I have only bought three houses over the last forty years. I only buy at the bottom of the market and STR at the top. I have a 100% track record using a simple formulae. I was able to retire at the ripe old age of 47 some 14 years ago on a private income because of it and some great investments. My track record speaks for itself.

On 12th december I cashed in all of my peps, isas and other investments built up over the last twenty years and put the money in high interest internet accounts. The reason for this was experience, something you cannot buy. The global markets have generally had a three year bull run that has run out of steam. Sell on the up and let the next mug have a little profit before the correction comes along this year.

I bought my first house in 1967 for £2000. It was two years old and had been bought for £2499 when new. It was STR in 1974 for £18000.

In 1977 I paid £11500 for a new build that had been on the market for £27500. I STR that in 1989 for £89000. I had twenty two couples chasing after that. I laughed all the way to the bank. I decided to live virtually rent free on my 40 foot boat and wait for the correction in the property market. In early 1994 I bought my existing property for £59000. It had been bought new in 1988 for £92000. In 1989 it was "valued" at £98000. At the moment it is paid for and "valued" at £220000.

Now don't get excited but I am about to put my house on the market to STR because I know that the house is worth more today than it will be for at least the next ten years.I know the time has come again. I have never been wrong but thats the problem with being a daft boy and keeping things simple. I will again sit tight for four or five years and buy back in at the bottom again.

Do your homework but keep it simple. Find the price of the building plot in pounds per square metre for the type of house you are seeking. Find the cost of a new build on the plot provided in pounds per square metre. Add the two together. That is the present true core cost of the property and will be mirrored in house price graph shown on this site. Buy below the line and you have a bargain. Buy above the line and you are paying for fresh air so beware. The more fresh air you purchase the bigger your problem. Never ever buy a a leasehold apartment because the plot and build price are always distorted . Thats why developers build them to maximise profit at your expence. Property is never an investment in the long term unless you buy low and sell high. In the long term average property prices only stay in line with average income.

All you bears will be right on for the next five years then it will become the turn of you bulls again.

--------------------

Buy to nest in not invest in

--------------------

In the dark depths of the lunatic asylum the daft boy is king.......Shakespeare

Spot on post. Spiffing

[othello]

Lottery numbers are based on random geometry, relying on the right ball being drawn at a particular point in time.

House Price Crash is based on economic conditons with only a few variable to consider.

By apply logic and studying statistics of the past you can predict with remarkable accuracy when a particalar event will occur.

Sadly not the case. As various prominent economists have shown! Perhaps you would care to elaborate on your reasoning?

[ivmcdermott]

Sadly not the case. As various prominent economists have shown! Perhaps you would care to elaborate on your reasoning?

What part would you like me to elaborate on ? I would gladly do so.

[Guest d23]

What part would you like me to elaborate on ? I would gladly do so.

I'm afraid to say i think you may be out of your depth judging by some of the posts / pronouncements you've made so far

It pains me to say this but there are some genuinely insightful and knowledgable bears on this site and the fairly naive nature of some of your posts don't lead me to believe you're one of them

This really isn't personal, your convictions seem genuine but I'm not sure you have thought all of your research through as thoroughly as you claim and it feels like you've maybe underestimated the complexities of the issues you address

As I said this isn't in any way meant to be an attack, I am in no way qualified to make absolute judgments either as I occasionally find some of the discussion on here over my head; anyways no one here is really in a position to make such definitive statements as to an exact month when the crash wil start

You feel like it'll be September '10 and maybe it will be but nothing you've said has made it any more certain to me than any other arbitrary date.

Apologies if this has come across as patronising as I'm not in a position to be; I am as in the dark and in the realms approximation as everyone else

[ivmcdermott]

I'm afraid to say i think you may be out of your depth judging by some of the posts / pronouncements you've made so far

It pains me to say this but there are some genuinely insightful and knowledgable bears on this site and the fairly naive nature of some of your posts don't lead me to believe you're one of them

This really isn't personal, your convictions seem genuine but I'm not sure you have thought all of your research through as thoroughly as you claim and it feels like you've maybe underestimated the complexities of the issues you address

As I said this isn't in any way meant to be an attack, I am in no way qualified to make absolute judgments either as I occasionally find some of the discussion on here over my head; anyways no one here is really in a position to make such definitive statements as to an exact month when the crash wil start

You feel like it'll be September '10 and maybe it will be but nothing you've said has made it any more certain to me than any other arbitrary date.

Apologies if this has come across as patronising as I'm not in a position to be; I am as in the dark and in the realms approximation as everyone else

You make the point, that I am in over my head. I would agree with that on some subjects and on others, i know exactly what I am talking about.

I come on here and debate real issues, that affect real people. I give my point of viw, opinions and predictions that I feel are correct.

I never just join a forum and just read posts, I like to contribute.

If I make a statement such as "I beleieve Interest rates are unlikely to rise in February 2007 " It is ually backed up by some reading around the subject, such as an article I have just read see a portion below

"Analysts said the knife-edge vote made another rate rise as soon as February unlikely. It also undermined the pound, which dropped back to $1.9689, after hitting a 14-year high of $1.9916 on Tuesday. "The fact that the Bank's chief economist, Charlie Bean, and the executive director in charge of financial markets, Paul Tucker, opposed Mr King suggests there are big divisions on the MPC," said Nick Stamenkovic, an economist at Ria Capital Markets. "The risk of back-to-back rate hikes has significantly diminished, but I wouldn't rule out one in March."

I dont know everything, no-one can. I just make a genuine statement and people either agree with it or they think I am talking out of my a**e.

You also make a point saying" Its not personal. Well Son, it isnt business either". If I got upset everytime someone thought what I was saying was rubbish, I would be in bed with the curtains drawn. I dont take it personal, I dont take it as business, I just couldnt care less.

My point is "I dont mind".

You feel like it'll be September '10 and maybe it will be but nothing you've said has made it any more certain to me than any other arbitrary date.

There are so many reasons, why that date is likely. As I have said before I few times. I am not going to write pages and pages about why, because one it take too long and two its nothing that hasnt been said time and time again on here.

If you dont agree with me about September 2010 as the most likly date then as I said before. I take it back.

Why do I take it back ? I am not a Prime Minister or Chancellor, i am not an estate agent or mortgage broker. I have no vested interest in trying to prove to you one way or the other. It just my pont of view, if it offends you to hear someone give a date, based on what they think. Then I take it all back... at least until September 2010, then I say "Told you so".

[Daft Boy]

Interesting post and I think you are spot on with regard to the current property cycle although I think there's a bit more steam left in it for 2007.

Age and experience win in the property game; one can safely ignore the young EAs who have never know anything other than a rising market.

I fully agree. Just enough to find the last mug to buy my house at the peak. With the size of the losses looming its such a pity that you can't put an old head on the many young shoulders out there. I know that you can learn from experience but its going to be so painfull at these levels.

[mattpascoe]

I fully agree. Just enough to find the last mug to buy my house at the peak. With the size of the losses looming its such a pity that you can't put an old head on the many young shoulders out there. I know that you can learn from experience but its going to be so painfull at these levels.

I agree further, as for being enough steam to see us through 2007 without seeing a price dip. I presume that it is not a fluke that a prestigious waterside housing development which is only 3 years old is failing to hold even their past prices. Wherest 3 years ago they were flying off the shelves for 190,000 - 260,000 these days many are sat back on the market unable to sell for even the original price let alone more. As I have rented one of these 'flats' in the past I have made up my mind I would not buy a flat for 50k let alone 150k, akin to putting the majority of life earnings down a drain.

[Daft Boy]

I agree further, as for being enough steam to see us through 2007 without seeing a price dip. I presume that it is not a fluke that a prestigious waterside housing development which is only 3 years old is failing to hold even their past prices. Wherest 3 years ago they were flying off the shelves for 190,000 - 260,000 these days many are sat back on the market unable to sell for even the original price let alone more. As I have rented one of these 'flats' in the past I have made up my mind I would not buy a flat for 50k let alone 150k, akin to putting the majority of life earnings down a drain.

Interesting point that you made about waterside properties. Down my way there is a large exclusive apartment complex of waterside apartments nearing completion. During last summer there was a large hoarding on the front saying "45% sold ". The sign quietly disappeared last December. When I went into the local EA and showed interest in the development and enquired on availibility I was told I could take my pick at the moment because work was still in progress. Someones telling porkies

[Tubtruck]

They are not a lot of use if not a lot of thought has gone into them. If the poster has put a lot of thought and effort into modelling the various factors, maybe it is worth listening to him / her.

Edited February 7, 2007 by Tubtruck

[zag2me]

It's not important when the housing market will start to crash, as you wont want to buy a house during a crash.

It is important when the housing market bottoms out, then all you STR'ers can pile back in.

So if it starts in 2010 and bottoms out, say 3 years later. 2013 is when you can move out of your rented accommodation and back into your own home

Bit to wait yet chaps.

Edited February 7, 2007 by zag2me

[john_d_uk]

Like most people on here, I am interested to know, when a house price crash will occur, I have calculated from the statistics of previous house prices crashes that this will occur around September 2010.

The crash will slice around 30% off todays prices (Jan 2007).

The crash will be followed by a period of Recession lasting several years possibly to 2015 until prices start to recover slowly.

In the meantime house prices will increase in the south east adding another 10 -15% before the crash and in the rest of the country prices will increase between 2% and 10% depending on your region.

Estate agents will have a lot of properties on their books and the usual suspects will be telling you "There will be no property crash". Yet

If you do your homework, like I have, look at the way the housing market performs when various factors are in play.

Such as Goverment spending. Gordon Brown's policy has been to pump as much money into public bodies such as the NHS and locakl councils, government departments. The problems with this is stealth taxes have needed to be introduced to lick us dry, because labour dare not reverse a election pledge of "Not increase income tax".

This gives people a sense of job security and they are prepared to take out more and more credit, when your job is at risk, crashes occur.

The war in Iraq and Afghanistan is licking the country dry as well forcing the government to borrow money like in the second world war.

Gordon Brown will be the next prime minister, but his unpopular tax rises will force labour out of government, leading to a conservative government.

Goverment spending will be cut (tory old ways die hard) and redundacies will force a property crash. Labour will claim "We told you so"

There is far too much data to list here, but if you look at history we are repeating the mistakes of the past.

September 2010 put it on your calendar

I'm getting fed up with articles like this ever lengthening the next crash. So now it is 2010? Why not 2015 or 2030?

This sort of thread simply devalues the worth of this website. Any muppet can say these sort of things that far ahead, without either any basis in fact, or anyone remembering if they are correct when we get there.

For what it is worth, I think you are wrong. Simply because this economy could not last intact until 2010. It is in the death rattle stage right now. The point with the UK economy is that house prices are a small part of it. An important part, but a relatively small part. How about the balance of payments - about £40 Billion per year and counting, how about the strength of the £GBP up nearly 20% in the last year, making what is left of our exports 20% more expensive and making the imports 20% cheaper.

How about total personal debt, which will significantly reduce personbal spending over the next few years, as people run out of ways of shuffing ever growing debt from one loan shark to the next.

How about total governemt debt, which in part has been caused by nearly 1,000,000 extra public sector jobs in the last 10 years. When GordEnron finally realises he has spent too much, many of these non-jobs will go in an instant. Who needs a senior deputy vice chirman of the diverstiy awareness team?...

This county is about to enter the protracted downturn that both Japan and Germany have been through, which has taken both countries over 10 years to start emerging from. With so many social factors, such as crime, REAL unemployment and debt more symptomatic of a recession, when we finally enter ours soon, the figures will become astronomical. And they will stay that high for many,many years.

2010 will be well within the house price crash realm, but it has already commenced. Unfortunately you will only realise by looking in you rear view mirrors in about 3 years time.

I feel better now

[john_d_uk]

It's not important when the housing market will start to crash, as you wont want to buy a house during a crash.

It is important when the housing market bottoms out, then all you STR'ers can pile back in.

So if it starts in 2010 and bottoms out, say 3 years later. 2013 is when you can move out of your rented accommodation and back into your own home

Bit to wait yet chaps.

So if true, that means house prices continue to rise from now until 2010. at the current rate of HPI of 10% per year, and if the definition of crash is a 30% drop, then you will be back to where you are today, but having paid off 7 years of you mortgage if you buy now.

At the same time you will be 7 years older, or dead. With all these tings a SENSIBLE assessment of risk is appropriate, not endless speculation, with the aim of forever putting off the day you buy.

If you look back 7 years, could you have predicted anything about the world today. It is unlikely, except apart from Labour having taxed and spent as usual, but back then they said no more boom and bust, and the sheeple believed them. It is unlikely most could reasonably predict events a year hence, let alone 7 years.

Don't forget you also have to live. Sitting in your bed-sit waiting for the day of judgement when you can buy a 4 bed detached for £25k is probably past. But if that day returns, you will be earning £5k per year my friend, so it will make little difference in reality.