Swansea-State Of The Market

[Argoed]

If I had 800K I would buy a house for 350 and retire on the rest. Stop and think how many of these houses will acfually ever sell at EVEN HALF their current asking prices let alone full asking price. Not many.

This area is in complete denial. Do what I aim to now do - buy a smaller more economic place to run and leave the hundreds of fantasist sellers living in Laa Laa Land.

Without a doubt you're right. I've been out in the sun for far too long!

[The Masked Tulip]

I bet there are plenty of people in those houses absolutely petrified that a mug will not turn up and relieve them of their debt. The older ones, who bought decades ago, I suspect have no idea how much the monthly mortgage payments are on such properties - even people on six figure salaries cannot afford such prices.

Edited October 10, 2012 by The Masked Tulip

[Byron]

I bet there are plenty of people in those houses absolutely petrified that a mug will not turn up and relieve them of their debt. The older ones, who bought decades ago, I suspect have no idea how much the monthly mortgage payments are on such properties - even people on six figure salaries cannot afford such prices.

Probably just a feeling 'in my water!' so to speak, but the drying up of rich Londoners who were capable of buying second homes in Swansea, means that the seaside type of house/cottage is no longer seen as a weekend retreat worth a lot of money, but just another terraced old house in a suburb, and the only people likely to buy are locals on low wages.

The hot competition driving prices way skywards has gone.

Fantasist vendors now have to face the reallity of young Dai and Blodwen with their £80,000 max mortgage.

[The Masked Tulip]

Probably just a feeling 'in my water!' so to speak, but the drying up of rich Londoners who were capable of buying second homes in Swansea, means that the seaside type of house/cottage is no longer seen as a weekend retreat worth a lot of money, but just another terraced old house in a suburb, and the only people likely to buy are locals on low wages.

The hot competition driving prices way skywards has gone.

Fantasist vendors now have to face the reallity of young Dai and Blodwen with their £80,000 max mortgage.

Exactly.

I know a couple from London who have been trying to sell their 'Mumbles cottage' for over 2 years - started off at a ludicrous 250 asking and is now down around 180 asking. They are trying to market it as a home to locals and a holiday investment to Londoners. Not even a nibble from buyers.

Cheeky so and sos are only now getting near what they paid for it. It is TINY.

Truth is, even they paid too much and their current asking price is way too much for locals. You can barely swing a cat in there. No couple wanting one child would buy it as it is too small so who is the market? Only mug IMPO! In reality it is just a tiny terrace in the backstreets of a run down suburb in an economically dying town.

[mumblesmental]

looking at a loss - went for 385k in 2008

http://www.gowercoastproperties.com/property_search/index.asp?WCI=Particular&WCE=002384866&CURRENCY=GBP

[The Masked Tulip]

looking at a loss - went for 385k in 2008

http://www.gowercoastproperties.com/property_search/index.asp?WCI=Particular&WCE=002384866&CURRENCY=GBP

I think I posted this either in here or in the main forum about a4 to 6 weeks ago.

If you look at the sold prices for that road some of the properties went for 300K so I have no sympathy for anyone who paid closer to 400K for one.

[The Masked Tulip]

We have complete denial in the area - only complete stupidity or complete arrogance IMPO results in houses coming on for higher asking prices than in 2007 or later. I am basically out of the market as I refuse to line the pockets of such sellers and EAs in the area.

There are so many properties in Mumbles/Gower now that are between 50% and 100% higher than 2007, 2008, 2009 or even 2010 prices paid by the sellers that, frankly, I personally think that any sane financial person from outside of Swansea would look at the situation with their jaws dropping to the floor.

We are in the worst recession since 1926. It is getting worse. Wages have not increased. People are struggling to pay heating and food bills. The economy of Swansea is virtually non-existent. The city centre looks like a run-down slum with fewer and fewer major stores in the town. And yet we have a housing market where the asking prices seem to go higher and higher on a monthly basis.

No, I am out of the market. I won't pay these prices and I sure as hell will not line the pockets of EAs who are the root cause of these, IMPO, ludicrous valuations. I think it is time to take a step back and simply wait for the inevitable crash here.

[mumblesmental]

yep, my sentiments exactly, i will sit back and wait with loot in the bank! the crash is coming! ye ha

[The Masked Tulip]

yep, my sentiments exactly, i will sit back and wait with loot in the bank! the crash is coming! ye ha

Forgot to mention it, on a different note, I heard from a few EAs that one of their Mumbles EA offices now has a chap who used to be an EA in London doing the valuations for them.

[The Masked Tulip]

yep, my sentiments exactly, i will sit back and wait with loot in the bank! the crash is coming! ye ha

I don't know if I mentioned it or not but one senior bod in one of the EA firms told me a few weeks ago that he thinks lots of EAs will be out of work before the winter is out. In fact, he thought that at least one firm will go bust. He said that, in his opinion, the over-valuing was now completely out of control.

I know of 2 EAs who, so I have heard on the grapevine, bought right at the height of the UK bubble - not the Swansea bubble (That is still growing IMP0) - and that any property they value near their homes seems to get, IMPO, the most crazy of valuations. I wonder why? Go figure!

[Byron]

I don't know if I mentioned it or not but one senior bod in one of the EA firms told me a few weeks ago that he thinks lots of EAs will be out of work before the winter is out. In fact, he thought that at least one firm will go bust. He said that, in his opinion, the over-valuing was now completely out of control.

I know of 2 EAs who, so I have heard on the grapevine, bought right at the height of the UK bubble - not the Swansea bubble (That is still growing IMP0) - and that any property they value near their homes seems to get, IMPO, the most crazy of valuations. I wonder why? Go figure!

Problem is, there are lots of absolute idiots out there.

I know of two houses in recent weeks that 'sold', only to find that a mortgage was unobtainable because of over valuing.

Now, both have come back on the market, the vendors totally convinced that sooner or late someone with the cash will turn up and pay their ludicrous price, and blaming the banks for 'not doing what banks are supposed to do'

I can appreciate their difficulty, some idiot was prepared to pay their price so they think that that price is what the house is worth.

I don't know whether the bank refused because of the LTV or because the buyers income was insufficient. Possibly both.

Anyway, here's a toast to breaking chains!

[The Masked Tulip]

Problem is, there are lots of absolute idiots out there.

I know of two houses in recent weeks that 'sold', only to find that a mortgage was unobtainable because of over valuing.

Now, both have come back on the market, the vendors totally convinced that sooner or late someone with the cash will turn up and pay their ludicrous price, and blaming the banks for 'not doing what banks are supposed to do'

I can appreciate their difficulty, some idiot was prepared to pay their price so they think that that price is what the house is worth.

I don't know whether the bank refused because of the LTV or because the buyers income was insufficient. Possibly both.

Anyway, here's a toast to breaking chains!

I know of loads of houses like this - simply loads. The houses are on for silly asking prices, some idiot comes along and offers full asking and the owners thinks the house is worth it.

Alas, the surveyor then comes back and says it is not worth it - but even if the surveyor says yes, which they are apparently doing less and less of now due to the fear of being sued at a future date - the banks are simply saying the properties are not worth it.

I spoke with one mortgage manager in a bank a month or two back and she told me that her bank is turning down 90% of mortgages in Swansea West due to the valuations being silly.

So the buyer then starts on some kind of Monty Python crusade to find a mortgage and the house lingers on the market for months before the seller drops out - have you noticed that EAs do not want you even viewing a house that has gone 'under offer' now so scared they are of the sale falling through? Five years back they were all for numerous buyers competing on properties - but no longer, that is how desperate things are.

Eventually the buyer lucks out and goes away blaming the banks and the not silly over-valued asking price. But the seller remains convinced that the asking price is fair and so the house remains on for the stupid asking price.

I think my EA friend is right and that lots of EAs now in Swansea will not be EAs by next spring.

[The Masked Tulip]

Just been talking with another local EA - he said that they have been told to put a brave face on it and tell everyone that the market is hunky dory but that, in reality, it is grinding to a halt.

Said that at the lower end they have people still putting in offers but the offers are actually way too high for the banks' liking - so the mortgages get turned down.

Further up the ladder lots of people putting in full asking price offers on the mid-range stuff from people who are downsizing from the big stuff - problem is, none of the down-sizers can find a buyer so, apart from them offering way too much on the mid-range stuff, they are "totally deluded" about the value of their own property. He reckons most of the people marketing their property over 300K will not sell unless they find the rare cash buyer.

He told me I would be surprised - I doubt it - by how many sellers and buyers have no idea what the monthly mortgage payments are on a house.

He went on to say that it was all down to, in his opinion, over-valuing by 30% to 50% by some of their competitors leaving them no option but to compete if they want stuff on their books.

He also reckons lots of estate agents will be out of a job this winter.

He said he thinks he knows of a few EAs who have huge mortgages - he said "huge" in a grandiose way - and he thinks they are, in his words, trying to prop up prices to protect their own house prices - something that we have discussed on here before perhaps being a reason for the silly valuations.

He said he would not buy a house now if he was looking to buy.

[The Masked Tulip]

I was talking with an EA yesterday and he was telling me how he and a colleague were debating whether to value a house at 500,000 or 600,000.

It was pointless as another firm came in and valued it at 750,000 apparently. The EA telling me this said that he doubted they would be able to sell it at 500,000 but it was indicative of what is going on in the local market.

[Swansea Estate Agent]

I can see a few EA firms are starting to struggle big time and will probably be better to shut down if we have the expected poor winter.

Although with the way most agents think, they will try to hold out as long as possible with the mentality of only the strongest will survive. Which agents are left standing will be the ones to make the most if or when the market turns. Still if one large agent goes, then the others will pick up all those instructions.

[Tankus]

One just for Argoed - look like the Knelston repo purchase fell through at 285K or 295K. It is back on the market.

http://www.primelocation.com/for-sale/details/26415331?search_identifier=c49580cc2930d8e8b206b54fcc9b8a0a

http://www.ctf-uk.com/property-for-sale-swansea.asp

Time to offer 250K Argoed?

Edit:

Quite funny, currently on Primelocation there is a Persimmon new build in Tycoch almost identical to it on for a ludicrous asking price IMPO given the area.

http://www.primelocation.com/for-sale/details/26362729?search_identifier=c49580cc2930d8e8b206b54fcc9b8a0a

Really like the grey brick in that'tawe' house

[The Masked Tulip]

I can see a few EA firms are starting to struggle big time and will probably be better to shut down if we have the expected poor winter.

Although with the way most agents think, they will try to hold out as long as possible with the mentality of only the strongest will survive. Which agents are left standing will be the ones to make the most if or when the market turns. Still if one large agent goes, then the others will pick up all those instructions.

From my observations there is clearly some kind of bidding war going on amongst 3 or 4 firms with valuations getting higher. It has being going on for a few years but the last 2 or 3 months have become ludicrous.

I don't know what they think the outcome will be because I can't see people buying such houses let alone banks offering mortgages on them.

Trying to, allegedly, harm others in this way will only harm themselves long-term. I look forward to seeing Lidl, Sainsburys and Tesco competing by ramping their prices higher and higher.

[The Masked Tulip]

Really like the grey brick in that'tawe' house

Do you? Or are you taking the mick?

They have identical houses for sale in Gorseinon on for 200K asking. Near 300K asking in Tycoch is just silly as numerous fairly recent builds up there have been struggling to reach 200K.

[The Masked Tulip]

I feel like I am talking to myself here... No you're not...

I had an interesting chat with 2 managers, in one of the chains, this week - they both said that sales had virtually dried up. Both said that they felt that the market was now filled with plenty of houses on for way too much in terms of asking prices and that any buyer should offer at least 15% below asking price and stick to that as their top offer.

Told me the usual problem of sellers refusing to drop asking prices or take offers, other EAs allegedly over-valuing, so they cannot see things improving now until the Spring. They were both anxious for jobs in their company as they feared there would be redundancies this winter.

[Tankus]

Do you? Or are you taking the mick?

They have identical houses for sale in Gorseinon on for 200K asking. Near 300K asking in Tycoch is just silly as numerous fairly recent builds up there have been struggling to reach 200K.

yes I do ....much rather have a brick/stone "finish" than the skimmed and painted "tawe" house next to it ...way less maintenance and cost long term ....... ...and the colour is refreshing from the usual boring off red /brown/yellowish baked clay ....dunno ...maybe just me then ...!

down the Gower yesterday ...and the council were putting in 3ft wooden flood protection barriers across the entrances to the walkway along the coastal pavement near the arcade and the Tramcafe (Tivoli Arcade ) with no warnings posted ? ......I wonder if they are going to leave them there all winter ..?.....bit awkward for some pensioners to get across...

[The Masked Tulip]

There was a flood warning issued a few days ago. High tides I think in the next few days plus south westerly winds.

I recall fishing on the prom there as a kid standing there in my wellies as the tide came over the prom to a depth of 2 or 3 inches.

[The Masked Tulip]

Here you go Argoed - they have gone back from auction to sales marketing it.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-39656948.html

[marshall666]

well thistakes the biscuit. what is it with dawsons and putting another 50k min on everything?

[The Masked Tulip]

well thistakes the biscuit. what is it with dawsons and putting another 50k min on everything?

Ha ha ha! I have just been talking to some friends about it.

Ludicrous asking price IMPO on Sketty Park Road close to the mini roundabout at the top of Sketty Lane.

I walk past there about once per day. The noise from the traffic is terrible IMPO and the fumes from vehicles I can feel in my throat and taste in my mouth.

I would not pay 200K to live there.

[Argoed]

well thistakes the biscuit. what is it with dawsons and putting another 50k min on everything?

Good solid, well built and well designed house with (looks like) the original windows. Only problem , but possibly a big one , would be road noise .

To be honest, on the "Dumb Dawsons" scale of insane valuations this is not, IMPO the best example , since with hard negotiating you might get it for 285-300K . I tend to think that the valuers and principals at Dawsons are commercially aware, canny but always looking to push the boundaries to the limit. GCP are different , they have no limits, for that shower I would recommend doubling the medication.