Miserable Barsteward Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 (edited) Looks like the ruble is in trouble and Putin may return. Edited November 20, 2008 by mrblobby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearwithasorehead Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Linky? Have heard anecdotal evidence of queues of Russkies in banks converting their roubles to dollars and euros. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
expatowner Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Is Russia The Next Iceland? No Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miserable Barsteward Posted November 20, 2008 Author Share Posted November 20, 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5193062.ece The spectre of a devaluation haunts ordinary Russians, who recall the financial meltdown in 1998 when the rouble lost two thirds of its value overnight as the country defaulted on its foreign debt. Exchange rates at street vendors have already slipped to around 28 per dollar as Russians convert some of their roubles, just in case.Fear of social unrest and a return to the economic chaos of the 1990s also underpins the Government's determination to support the currency and ease fears of a devaluation. All nations will be the next Iceland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copydude Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Is Russia The Next Iceland? You have obviously been reading The Daily Telegraph. As it happens, Putin has just increased unemployment benefits to help hard non-working families through this difficult time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nowthenagain Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 No. Next question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonga Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 No... Ireland could be though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Looks like the ruble is in trouble and Putin may return. Good. They deserve it, the bloody Stalin worshippers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest theboltonfury Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Looks like the ruble is in trouble and Putin may return. says who? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miserable Barsteward Posted November 20, 2008 Author Share Posted November 20, 2008 says who? Bloomberg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copydude Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Bloomberg says one thing, Putin says another . . . Putin Talks About A Third Term Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miserable Barsteward Posted November 20, 2008 Author Share Posted November 20, 2008 You have to admit Medvedev does look like a fish out of water...and if there's a crises of confidence in the currency Putin might have to return to put a proper face on things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicolaj Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 russia can't be next...they need their money to fight against israel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miserable Barsteward Posted November 20, 2008 Author Share Posted November 20, 2008 Come to think of it...Wasn't Russia offering to bail out Iceland at one point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble&Squeak Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 (edited) Their reserves of oil and gas and other resources give them too much leverage now IMHO, well much more than a few hundred tonnes of cod anyway EDIT: What makes you think Putin has gone anywhere? Edited November 20, 2008 by Bubble&Squeak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thod Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Is Russia in a bad way? I think not. They have all the resources they could need, minerals, oil and gas, timber, food etc. Russia used to be the worlds largest grain exporter and can be again. The world needs all these and has no choice but to buy. The Iceland situation was a debt problem, yet Russia has a huge current account surplus, they are sitting on a vast amount of money. Thus they are not in Iceland's position. One of the biggest problems for the ruble is government interference. If they decide they want your business they will not renew your fire safety license and thus simply take your business. People don't want to put money into something if they cant get it out. The solution is simply to sell all their stuff for rubles instead of dollars. So if you want a tanker of Russian oil you must pay them in rubles. This will have buyers scrambling around to get rubles in order to buy and both raise its value and give it stability. By selling in dollars the ruble becomes worthless to outsiders since they want to buy from Russia and not inside Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miserable Barsteward Posted November 20, 2008 Author Share Posted November 20, 2008 (edited) Their reserves of oil and gas and other resources give them too much leverage now IMHO, well much more than a few hundred tonnes of cod anywayEDIT: What makes you think Putin has gone anywhere? Well in the sense he took a back seat as Prime Minister and I believe their economic model requires oil to be around $90 a barrel...it's currently trading below $50. Edited November 20, 2008 by mrblobby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluffy666 Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Is Russia in a bad way?I think not. They have all the resources they could need, minerals, oil and gas, timber, food etc. Russia used to be the worlds largest grain exporter and can be again. The world needs all these and has no choice but to buy. The Iceland situation was a debt problem, yet Russia has a huge current account surplus, they are sitting on a vast amount of money. Thus they are not in Iceland's position. One of the biggest problems for the ruble is government interference. If they decide they want your business they will not renew your fire safety license and thus simply take your business. People don't want to put money into something if they cant get it out. The solution is simply to sell all their stuff for rubles instead of dollars. So if you want a tanker of Russian oil you must pay them in rubles. This will have buyers scrambling around to get rubles in order to buy and both raise its value and give it stability. By selling in dollars the ruble becomes worthless to outsiders since they want to buy from Russia and not inside Russia. Russia's problem is a typical one for petrodollar nations (which it basically is) - Lots of cash but very badly distributed. Plus fairly lawless as a result - basically run by the rich for the rich, on their rules. Give a population of 160 million, oil exports of 5 million barrels/day ($100 billion/year), or $700 per person per year suddenly don't look as huge as all that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copydude Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Well in the sense he took a back seat as Prime Minister and I believe their economic model requires oil to be around $90 a barrel...it's currently trading below $50. Projections are based on 50. A drop to 40 means budget defecit. The Government has been fairly realistic - its own projections of growth are lower than those of the IMF. However, demand for its exports will fall as countries like the Ukraine go into deep recession. As interestrateripoff wrote earlier, every country will be Iceland to some degree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lastlaughagain Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Projections are based on 50. A drop to 40 means budget defecit.The Government has been fairly realistic - its own projections of growth are lower than those of the IMF. However, demand for its exports will fall as countries like the Ukraine go into deep recession. As interestrateripoff wrote earlier, every country will be Iceland to some degree. Budget projection are based on 70 this year and 90 next.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copydude Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Budget projection are based on 70 this year and 90 next.... 'Were' based. I believe a state working group has just revised them downwards. (And maybe not for the first time.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lastlaughagain Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 'Were' based. I believe a state working group has just revised them downwards.(And maybe not for the first time.) Thats alright then ..... I'll call the 'in laws' later and tell them not worry the state working group are on the case and have moved the goal posts again and maybe you will get paid next month unlike the thousands that aren't this month...still they where warned and should be fore armed...and not panic. Vivid memories of 1998 still exsist it won't take much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JOliver Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Bloomberg Bloomberg then say This year's budget surplus reached $100 billion, or 7.8 percent of gross domestic product, by November. $134.6 billion Reserve Fund Russia's international reserves, the third-biggest after China's and Japan's If UK would have any of these, we'd be in a totally different state now (ie not in a complete sh1t). Mind you, Russia can go tits up. But not just yet. And it will be one of the last few countries to do so, if not the last. As thod rightly pointed they have all resources (natural, human, and financial), strong manufacturing base, food self-sufficiency, you name it. All the rest can be bought cheaply from neighbouring China. I can't see what possibly can damage them that they do worse than US/UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miserable Barsteward Posted November 20, 2008 Author Share Posted November 20, 2008 Bloomberg then sayIf UK would have any of these, we'd be in a totally different state now (ie not in a complete sh1t). Mind you, Russia can go tits up. But not just yet. And it will be one of the last few countries to do so, if not the last. As thod rightly pointed they have all resources (natural, human, and financial), strong manufacturing base, food self-sufficiency, you name it. All the rest can be bought cheaply from neighbouring China. I can't see what possibly can damage them that they do worse than US/UK. Who would have thought it!..10 years ago they were an economic and political basket case...They are an example to us all on how to run an economy and it just goes to show how easily we can recover from our difficulties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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