Agentimmo Posted July 26, 2010 Share Posted July 26, 2010 Hi Redwine, All the attractions you attribute to Nice were there in the 1990s : Nice is one of the top four cities in FranceDue to its climate Local shops easy access Hotels Also a high % of doctors good health-care etc It still crashed along with the rest of France. The market now has less Brits, Scandanavians and ESPECIALLY Italians coming in to keep the market rising. Prices have stalled and are falling. Don't look at asking prices in EA's windows. Look at the prices sold for. I recently heard of a 2 bed in Nice going for -25% listed price as the ageing owners wanted to sell and couldn't wait another 1-2 yrs for their "asking price" to be realised. The French cannot sustain high property prices in Nice or the Cote d'Azur as they do not have the money. You and I might differ in opinion? I don't think it "will be different this time" for Nice once the French market is in crash mode........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smog Posted July 26, 2010 Share Posted July 26, 2010 Agentimmo.... I'd like to ask your advice.... I'm still keen on buying something down your way, initially as somewhere to holiday (we live northern France), at some point in the not too distant future, as somewhere to live full time. I quite like the area between Grasse and Vence, around Tourettes-sur-Loup as an example (I need to be close to an airport). I've monitored this area for a while and there are plenty of terrains of about 25 ares which could tempt me at the right price... they're clearly not selling like hot cakes. Do you know this area ? Is it reasonable in terms of quality of life, schools etc.. ? Is it predominantly holiday homes ? Anywhere else you think might be better ? Any advice would be welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted July 26, 2010 Share Posted July 26, 2010 The French cannot sustain high property prices in Nice or the Cote d'Azur as they do not have the money. You and I might differ in opinion? I don't think it "will be different this time" for Nice once the French market is in crash mode........ Hi I've been checking out prices and news articles about Nice recently i believe that theres going to be a new renovation project of the 'vieux port' Looking at asking prices there even with lets say 30% knocked off prices are still high This has nothing to do with the foreigners (brits like myself or the italiens) but mainly the French I haven't noticed prices falling in Chamonix ,Mont Blanc or Mégeve etc Prices here are still high and the new TGV line which was electrified and test runs have started last week = high asking prices Not forgetting that they plan to build a new shopping centre of over 250 shops at Bellegarde called "village of the alps" I have even noticed new 'high speed ski-lifts' that cost a fortune even though figures seem to be stable it looks like they are looking ahead to the future I am up to my eyes in work this year to the point that i can't have a holiday this summer (i do not work in property) This is a great reccession Prices still high Heavy investments More work Things seemed to me to have been a lot cheaper and slower during the "boom years" I agree that prices will continue to fall in regions of France where they haven't got much work etc Going back to Nice Population 2007 348,721 2006 347,060 Hence more demand in the long term Actually the least populated village in France is called "Rochefourchat" in the Drome with a population of 1 person but it does have an elected local council of 9 councillors and 18 voters Sounds like a rotten borough to me I am going through a population effect on property type thing at the moment ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted July 27, 2010 Share Posted July 27, 2010 Hi Redwine, for what it's worth, my wife agrees with your point of view that the local Riviera market won't crash. But she thought the same in 1993 and was wrong then. Fingers crossed she gets it wrong a second time, otherwise we won't be moving to another house until we retire....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted July 27, 2010 Share Posted July 27, 2010 http://www.paruvendu.fr/immobilier/ The above link is another French website for buying and selling ,renting looking for holiday rentals etc Today there are 414,239 property adds on it This is actually a national "free sheet newspaper" not everybody here has internet It has the double advantage of internet plus a free sheet BTW its impossible to track property on this site not like Se loger or the Boncoin ,PAP etc You have to pay but the add only lasts for three weeks (at least for the free paper version) TBH its a very popular site for buying property in different regions as well as buying cars etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted August 3, 2010 Share Posted August 3, 2010 http://www.cadastre.gouv.fr/scpc/accueil.do# The above link is the French Gov't website i have given the English version This website will give you an idea if the G'vt plan to demolish or build new roads etc You just fill in the form and send very easy There is also another dept the DDU or the direction departmentale d' urbanisme worth checking out if you planning to buy or build etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted August 4, 2010 Share Posted August 4, 2010 http://www.boursorama.com/patrimoine/information/detail-actualite.phtml?num=b39e0e9866c14784ff70a675fe4ed60a Boursorama today Prés de 58% des Francais sont propriétaires de leur résidence principle Nearly 58% of the French are owners of there homes Quote According to the Ministry of the Ecology today we have learnt that nearly 57.9% of the French own there property This number has been rising over the last ten years and still is today This is not true ten years ago the French owned 62% of there property What they call own there property does it mean paid for in total? I doubt it These figures are very low when compared with other countries in Europe and due to the crisis there will be even a lot less property owners in France Nobody seems to be bothered anymore about buying property today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grand Cru Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 Waiting to buy in France, and looking from the graph, it could be a long wait. Have to agree with Redwine and his longer term forecast, the only was is Down http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100007092/reckless-europe-beats-reckless-america-at-property-bubbles/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted August 5, 2010 Share Posted August 5, 2010 Waiting to buy in France, and looking from the graph, it could be a long wait. Have to agree with Redwine and his longer term forecast, the only was is Down http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100007092/reckless-europe-beats-reckless-america-at-property-bubbles/ http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2010/08/03/883442-Immobilier-les-prix-ont-continue-de-progresser-en-juillet.html La depeche 3/8/2010 Immobilier les prix ont continue de progresser en juillet Property Prices have continued there upward progression in July Prices are going up etc Worth noting in the article that today there is more property for sale than the same time last year +54% in July 2010 when compared with July 2009 (an explosion of sellers) I like the last paragraph "The stone is today becoming more than ever and like it once was a safe haven for the French risking a new fever of property buying before the end of this year" According to Entreparticuliers .com BTW Entreparticuliers is a very small sales site This article was posted in the girls section of the newspaper or au feminin (TBH i don't know why) The French Property Lobby is still very strong A good example is after the 8pm news on France 2 after 8.30pm adverts are no longer allowed on public TV except one Buy property don't throw your money out of the window by paying rent etc This has been going on now for the last two weeks ! The UK ,USA ,China can crash but not here France is an exception!! I don't know how long that this denial of reality will continue Thanks for the graph it will never be shown here due to the property police or VIs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted August 6, 2010 Share Posted August 6, 2010 http://www.journaldunet.com/economie/magazine/les-villes-les-plus-pauvres/ This is a new list of the top 30 poorest towns in France As normal the north of France is in the top ten Calais etc Also Cavaillon in the Vaucluse 4.3 million French live below the poverty line or 7.2% of the population Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sesim Posted August 9, 2010 Share Posted August 9, 2010 The French Property Lobby is still very strong .. I hope you're right Redwine.. that prices will decline. But I fear that we're still in the eye of the storm, and that the european politicians in cahoots with central banks won't let deflation take hold, and will expand the money supply to keep asset prices high. If prices drop, the european banks will be facing even more huge losses, which will show them to be even more insolvent than they already are. It won't be allowed to happen. The banks would threaten to shut down the system if they don't get even more bailouts, and the politicans will oblige, and since they won't be able to borrow any more at reasonable rates, they will just print money to fund the bailouts. The politicans also need to find a way to get rid of the gargantuan sovereign debt.. inflation will do nicely, and when inflation takes hold, people will quickly convert their useless paper money into bricks, mortar and land, gold etc. France is massively exposed to greek debt. So I think we'll get stagnation of house prices - the price on the label, but they will become cheaper relative to a loaf of bread, or a litre of fuel. House prices are so central to keeping the plates spinning and kicking the problem further down the road, that these idiot politicians will always take less pain now in return for more pain later (the effect of inflation on basics), since they won't be in power to suffer the consequences, and so have no incentive to act in the long term. The clincher for me is that although we're being sold deflation/the collapse of credit and the money supply, prices of basics, bread, cheese, fuel etc are still going up in pure euro terms in France. Something smells fishy.. I suspect the ECB are finding ever more ingenious ways of expanding the money supply without saying as much. So I think that the 'vested interests' are the high street banks, the estate agents, the politicians, the central banks... And people like myself who have sold to rent, hoping the funds will buy a sensibly priced property will find ourselves on the wrong side of the bet. It's like going into a casino and you're thinking that you're betting against other players on the table, when in fact you're betting against, and trying to outsmart the casino itself, which always wins, since they control the rules and the payouts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
non frog Posted August 9, 2010 Share Posted August 9, 2010 .... The clincher for me is that although we're being sold deflation/the collapse of credit and the money supply, prices of basics, bread, cheese, fuel etc are still going up in pure euro terms in France. Something smells fishy.. I suspect the ECB are finding ever more ingenious ways of expanding the money supply without saying as much. .... Basics are rising in price as the system collapses. Peak oil is pushing up oil prices. Climate change is pushing up food prices (wheat and barley are nearly double due to climatic issues). Nothing will change either of these trends - nothing. At the same time credit and money supply are collapsing. US M4 is negative. Demand is falling keeping general prices competitive, but not falling as prices are cannot fall below cost. The logical outcome is an increase in the day to day cost of living and a decrease in asset prices, property being one such asset. The next thirty years will be a period of falling standards of living for all of Europe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted August 10, 2010 Share Posted August 10, 2010 http://www.lindependant.com/articles/2010-08-01/le-marche-immobilier-local-reste-fragilise-par-la-crise-224453.php Limoux le marche immobilier reste fragilise par la crise Limoux The local property market is still fragile due to the crisis South - West France dept Aude the local EAs opinions 1/8/2010 Quote Since the start of the crisis at the end of 2008 property has suffered a heavy fall In Limoux transactions are more and more rare and real prices have fallen To rent,for sale signs often hand-written or put there by EAs are to be seen everywhere around Limoux An average 15% fall in transactions and price drops of 20% to 25% over the last two years! The vendors are asking 25% more than the real value of there property today There is far too much property on the market (for sale) this is preventing property price rises if prices do go up this won't be before 2013 at the least Notary figures for the dept Aude average house price sales price's are 126,500 euros The English have deserted the the local property market they had up to 20% of all sales today virtually zero They are still there but with a reduced budget Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 http://www.leboncoin.fr/ventes_immobilieres/109839643.htm 5 chambres maison au bord d' un village A 5 bedroom house near a village The English are selling up and are going home this time its Alan and Rita that are selling using leboncoin A very long far to long English type add in French (google translator inside) The charm of a well presented 5 bedroom house in the heart of the Loire valley in the middle of farming land (or in the middle of nowhere) Its a house with an independant flat for granny! ( is this some new conception the flat for granny) The property also benefits to the simple fact that it has has running water and electricity (amazing) It does have a well and a carver and a garden with some weird trees Chesnut trees with nuts! Walnut trees or drowning trees so you can take granny to the well use the drowning tree and you even have a carver for her grave! Price 220,000 euros Same add on another site 233,200 euros Same type of property only 4 bedrooms asking price 118,000 euros local prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
non frog Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 ....The English are selling up and are going home.... France gets better and better................. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 http://sig.ville.gouv.fr/Atlas/ZUS/ The above link is the French Gov'ts list of what they call ZUS or zone urban sensible or French ghettos There are 751 in France in every city and nearly every big town in France You should also check out the top 30 poorest towns in France if you are thinking of buying because you risk moving into a rough poor high unemployment town These ZUS ghettos are bad poverty guns violence etc , The other side of France Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 France gets better and better................. Alan and Rita aren't going anywhere at least when it comes to selling there "Dream French Property" Its been on sale since the 26/11/2008 521 days or 17 months it will soon be relegated into the dead property section French property trackers are tip top i am sure that you will agree with me There house is all electric but EDF are asking for a 9% increase in electricity more bad news The taxe d' habitation and the taxe fonciere or council tax and rates will soon be going up Not forgetting house burglary seems to be out of control as well as violence in general I could talk about more deaths on French roads and even more unemployment Going back to the Alans and Ritas dream home The garden looks like a field with a few chestnut trees with nuts and a drowning tree (the french translation) As for the flat for granny in the bottom of the garden i can't see it but you know how to get rid of her if shes rich! There kitchen looks like an old French 1980s kitchen actually the whole house looks old fashioned They have not spent a penny making it look modern Everybody says that the French ask for for sky high prices but so do the English I would offer 95,000 euros at the most not 220,000 euros They are looking for English buyers so you have been warned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidg Posted August 13, 2010 Share Posted August 13, 2010 http://sig.ville.gouv.fr/Atlas/ZUS/ The above link is the French Gov'ts list of what they call ZUS or zone urban sensible or French ghettos There are 751 in France in every city and nearly every big town in France ahh the Olympic heritage of Grenoble: http://sig.ville.gouv.fr/Cartographie/8208110 no doubt if Annecy gets the 2018 winter olympics we can look forward to a few more ghettos in the Sept-Quatre. If you are buying in France also check out the Carte Soclaire (school zoning map) to see whether your kids will be going to a school in a ZEP (zones d'éducation prioritaire). Talking about Grenoble, le Figaro recently revealed a secret deal between the Mayor, Michel Destot and the heads of drug gangs to cede control of the zones where the gangs operate. Basically these zones were to be a police no-go area and council workers were to be under direction of the gangs. Meanwhile the local police have been withdrawn from these areas following a fatwa against their families (there is a bonus for anyone killing one of the cops or their families, figures of 20K have been bandied about). Police have had to be brought in from Lyon and Marseille, they've discovered that the bullet proof vests they've been offered are out of date and they are having to buy some of their own kit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cozza Posted August 13, 2010 Share Posted August 13, 2010 ahh the Olympic heritage of Grenoble: http://sig.ville.gouv.fr/Cartographie/8208110 no doubt if Annecy gets the 2018 winter olympics we can look forward to a few more ghettos in the Sept-Quatre. If you are buying in France also check out the Carte Soclaire (school zoning map) to see whether your kids will be going to a school in a ZEP (zones d'éducation prioritaire). Talking about Grenoble, le Figaro recently revealed a secret deal between the Mayor, Michel Destot and the heads of drug gangs to cede control of the zones where the gangs operate. Basically these zones were to be a police no-go area and council workers were to be under direction of the gangs. Meanwhile the local police have been withdrawn from these areas following a fatwa against their families (there is a bonus for anyone killing one of the cops or their families, figures of 20K have been bandied about). Police have had to be brought in from Lyon and Marseille, they've discovered that the bullet proof vests they've been offered are out of date and they are having to buy some of their own kit. Here's the list of 'Colleges' in a ZEP http://media.education.gouv.fr/file/63/8/638.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted August 13, 2010 Share Posted August 13, 2010 http://www.leboncoin.fr/ventes_immobilieres/126415684.htm T4 Maison de toit Mordelles House on a roof in Mordelles Leboncoin A house thats been built on the top of a block of flats! What makes this add so special is the new sellers tactics "Urgent before i rent it out" "Price a 160,000 euros if you sign and buy it straight away" You pay the price that the vendor wants otherwise they will rent it out a sort of threat! I like the furniture in the salon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted August 14, 2010 Share Posted August 14, 2010 http://www.leboncoin.fr/ventes_immobilieres/124389840.htm?ca=21_s Alpes de Haute Provence Barcelonnette Grande Maison à Uvernet Fours Big House in Uvernet Fours Leboncoin (who else) Quote The price goes down every week come back regulary to follow the evolution Last price drop the 5th of August (from 350,000 euros to 347,000 euros) Its probably only worth a 180,000 euros Leboncoin property section is a really insane place but always good for a laugh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted August 15, 2010 Share Posted August 15, 2010 http://www.topannonces.fr/petites-annonces--immobilier-vente-location.html Leboncoin has 677448 property adds on its site today 186966 private vendors 490482 EA vendors There is another free add website that has even more property for sale a total of 733644 adds Its called Topannonces its free for private sellers just like Leboncoin but its much easier to place an add (it takes a couple of minutes) the add stays there for 60 days then they send you a mail asking if you want to continue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwine Posted August 15, 2010 Share Posted August 15, 2010 http://www.letelegramme.com/complements/2010/08/15/1020125_t111i-immobilier1508bis.pdf This link is the Notarys average prices for the coastline of Brittany Check out the green arrows showing % falls in prices this also this gives an indication of future trends These are last months average prices according to the Notarys Having said that if you visit there websites they will not give you any average house-prices! The link in reality gives the prices that they want to sell you property The French property market will continue its slow decline even Jacques Friggitt the French economist says so! Looking at his August graph for July July +1.07 transactions June +1.04 May +1.02 When compared to July 2009 this is only +1 point in a year which is next to nothing When you pay a Notary his fees or a tax as you might believe this is called DDM they give a % to the Gv't but a lot of cash goes into there own pockets The DDM or tax collected is another way of checking out the state of the French Property market May -1.96% June+3.83% July +9.57% In November 2006 + 18.32% Property is still selling but i believe in the low price bracket One of the reasons why property sales have been rising over the last six months is due to FEAR (fear of the future)many buyers who have been recently made redundant are using there redundancy pay-off and there savings to buy property a false safe-haven! Prices will not go up with 1.3 million properties for sale in France The only way ahead is down! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 15, 2010 Share Posted August 15, 2010 http://www.letelegramme.com/complements/2010/08/15/1020125_t111i-immobilier1508bis.pdf This link is the Notarys average prices for the coastline of Brittany Check out the green arrows showing % falls in prices this also this gives an indication of future trends These are last months average prices according to the Notarys Having said that if you visit there websites they will not give you any average house-prices! The link in reality gives the prices that they want to sell you property The French property market will continue its slow decline even Jacques Friggitt the French economist says so! Looking at his August graph for July July +1.07 transactions June +1.04 May +1.02 When compared to July 2009 this is only +1 point in a year which is next to nothing When you pay a Notary his fees or a tax as you might believe this is called DDM they give a % to the Gv't but a lot of cash goes into there own pockets The DDM or tax collected is another way of checking out the state of the French Property market May -1.96% June+3.83% July +9.57% In November 2006 + 18.32% Property is still selling but i believe in the low price bracket One of the reasons why property sales have been rising over the last six months is due to FEAR (fear of the future)many buyers who have been recently made redundant are using there redundancy pay-off and there savings to buy property a false safe-haven! Prices will not go up with 1.3 million properties for sale in France The only way ahead is down! Thanks for that, interesting link. We're in Brittany for the summer and can't see any signs of activity in the immobiliers. Currently, we're in St Malo and prices in the immobiliers look much the same as last year and the year before. We spent a month on the Cote d'Azure in the spring and the situation looked similar. I don't think it makes much difference whether one is looking to buy in France or UK, a wait of a few years seems to be in order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
non frog Posted August 15, 2010 Share Posted August 15, 2010 (edited) I look at the St Malo area now and then (as we like it and would love a place there for the diving and sailing). I get mailings from an EA in the area and in spring they were often mailing me about price drops. That seems to have stopped of late. I think a lot of the Brits that own there are worried about rising ferry costs. Brittany ferries is about 400 quid (with overnight cabin) compared to 40 quid on the ferries and 50 quid on the tunnel. Back in the UK later this week and hoping to close a deal that's been hanging around for two years - after that I will know where I live Missus still in the running for a Paris job - if we end up there we'll be looking at St Malo again. Cracking place. As you say Bruce, no rush on the decision making (much to the annoyance of my EA ) Whetted my appetite...... http://www.seloger.com/264132/31489619/detail.htm?idtt=2 Nice weekender.... Edited August 15, 2010 by non frog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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