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Everything posted by sesim

  1. Exactly.. they wouldn't do this unless they are completely sh*tt*ng themselves / futures and options traders are vanishing / cme's viability itself is at stake. But then again, they might be lying when they say they will do what they promise. Which independant authority/regulator will verify their claims - who was meant to be overseeing MF global to ensure that segregated client positions were indeed segregated ? And what happened there ? If this news had come from some super-new-really-independent-regulator with teeth that would mince through their gonads in a single bite if they failed to fulfill, then fair enough. But who is going to trust the CME with their track record ? Buy Physical not Virtual.. every step of the way. Edit: Smelling mistakes.
  2. So you have traded paper with an average shelf live of 40 years, backed by the promise of politicians, for metal that has intrinsic worth through it's scarcity, which has been a currency for thousands of years. Please reconsider your position. Then laugh your head off.
  3. What a woeful post. The most interesting thing is the question - what can you possibly gain from posting it ? And there's the straw man. Then you go on an arrogantly tell us what you KNOW is right.. based on.. Sir, with the greatest respect, have a glug of your nickname and have a lie down.
  4. Shall I bend down and rub my face in a french turd or an english turd, or take a sniff at both of the festering piles and walk away.
  5. I think some dealers just have really lousy supply chains and/or are paranoid about holding too much in a volatile market. I only bought once from ATS - same experience as you - except they didn't even have kruggies when I went. I also wonder if it's the case that if dealers buy stock just before a engineered take-down erm... 'market correction', they obviously won't want to sell it below the price they paid for it. So until they buy more at a lower price/new stock arrives, it just sits on their shelf gathering dust... until the price rises so they can make a profit on it again.
  6. By 'demise', someone must have broken into your house and either: 1. Reduced the physical quantities that you are holding 2. Swapped your stash for a lesser purity No ? Surely you don't mean the price in printable-to-oblivion paper... ? My hunch is that the proportions of 'stackers' to 'traders' is moving towards the 'stackers'. As complex systems (economies, interlinked globally) become ever more complex / become more chaotic as they teeter towards collapse, it will be even more difficult to be on the 'trader' side. Expect double-digit +/- % movements PER DAY on the worst days in 2012. Stackers just sit back and watch the show. Traders panic and hope. You need to get into the mindset where the only time that you're obsessively watching metals prices are when you don't have any physical in your possession. When you have some, it's much easier to relax, and you stop looking at prices, and start counting ounces and purity, and let the price fixers do what they will.
  7. I'm sure young Timmy Geithner has already read the riot act to all the EU leaders on his recent EU tour... ie USA/UK will consider it an act of war if the EU banks/goverments attempt to trigger their CDS payouts on Greek, Spanish defaults. Gold help the US/UK banking system if they are triggered, since most of the insurance for this debts was issued by USA/UK banks. I suspect this is why Merkel is in such a horrible place... all EU politicians know that it's the people, not the banks who will be paying all the debt down. Unless the people say 'No', which is the most likely outcome.. at some stage.
  8. But there is a silver lining to every cloud. Up until now the EU really hasn't had a 'face' that the people can rise up against. The EU has shown itself through very subtle rule changes that have incrementally increased their own power while diluting national governments. But now they have stepped up and stuck their heads over the parapet by installing puppet goverments in Italy and Greece. So now the people know who the enemy is, who to rally against, which flag to burn, and who needs to be strung up from a lampost. This is a good thing.
  9. Not so fast... Christian Noyer is none other than the chairman of board of directors of the Bank Of International Settlements .. a heavy hitter in the central banking world. He's not just an ECB policymaker.. but the head of all central bankers' policy makers. ie. Merv's boss in that sphere of influence. Expect Merv to squeak a little at most, then bow down. The french have a lot of people in high positions of power.. head of BIS, head of IMF etc. We really are on the fringes of decision making, no matter how much Cast Iron dave insists he's at the table.
  10. Also, in the coming storm, any laws that applied at that time can be rewritten with the stroke of a pen in an emergency situation. If people think their goverments will allow them to keep their wealth and respect previous law, I would prepare yourselves for a surprise. At some point, I think the only thing that goverments can do to stop collapse will be to do massive raids on peoples wealth - savings accounts, pensions.. everything. My dad keeps on going on about the 85K savings guarantee... this is only in place to stop runs on banks / to make people believe that the promise is true. Good luck with that one. Goverments will have to fulfil their obligations from the people who have the wealth.. I think it's that simple in sh*tstorm scenario, for the sake of keeping the peace / stopping civil society from collapsing. They might not have time to get rid of the debt via inflation if there really is a 'crash' moment.. unless that crash moment involves adding a zero onto the currency. (Anyone, I'll take my TFH and stop hogging the thread.. I'm way off topic.
  11. Yep, good point. It's possible that the EU might not even exist as a legal entity to attempt a claw-back. So then it would be down to each individual country to attempt the claw-back instead. And they might be able to do this because you are a citizen of country X, and I would guess there are international laws around your citizenship that means the goverment can do this (regardless of your actual tax/ordinary residency). Individual countries are striking deals with the swiss all the time on things like witholding taxes, for the citizens of each of those countries.
  12. Will moving money to the 'stronger' EU countries really give anyone any more real security, since at some point the weaker countries will probably just default on their debt/leave the EUR, meaning that all the 'stronger' countries will be completely shafted. ie. Greece/Spain etc. thought they had debts, but soon they have none after they have defaulted. (Good for them!) Germany/Holland thought they had assets (money left, bonds lent to weaker countries + interest), but soon they will have none. (Bad for them!) I don't have any answers, other than maybe getting your money out of the EU eg. to switzerland, and into other currencies eg. CAD, NOK, CHF to spread the risk, and/or buy physical gold and silver. But even then, soon switzerland will institute capital controls to prevent a landslide of money flying their way, so the window to do the above is shortening by the day. And even then, the EU will probably attempt a claw-back of EU funds that have drained to switzerland. This is going to be a complete sh*tstorm when it kicks off properly.. no place to hide.
  13. What a side-show this summit has been. - Q. how much debt still needs to be rolled over in the next year -> A. An impossible amount - Q. who is lining up to be buyers. -> A. No person, country or sovereigh wealth fund is that stoopid, even this morning - Q. how are the current debts more servicable this morning ? -> A. They're not - Q. given the current unpayable debt loads/interest payments, when can these rules be 'enforced'? -> After either grinding austerity for decades/hyperinflation has finished - Q. why do EU leaders think this is a political rather than financial problem ? -> A. Because they want to be seen as the geniuses who saved the system / they will fail - Q. what is now preventing the whole system from collapsing / a massive 'european spring' / demands for EU heads on lampposts > A. Nothing. Nice job Merkozy and Dave. Getting to the heart of the problem I see.
  14. Exactly. Just a minor correction if you don't mind: "We are expecting the general public to wake up and do the sensible thing - to remove their savings from this toxic banking system resulting in massive contagious bank runs across all UK banks, so we will now take dog sh1t as collateral from insolvent banks"
  15. Main problem in Spain is that the authorities don't think twice about taking your property off you... ie all the land grab / getting the victims to pay for the destruction and removal of their own properties. In a SHTF situation (eg. leave EUR/devaluation/civil breakdown), the spanish would just declare that all property rights belonging to non-spanish citizens are null and void / are now the property of the spanish state / you will be forced to sell to the state at cents to the new peseta. Once outside the EU law, they can and will do whatever they want to protect their own citizens. As to be expected.
  16. For something to qualify as a black swan event: The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology It's definitely high impact, but not hard to predict.. by anyone who knows you can't keep spending more than you earn. It's not rare.. going into debt is part of this century (and every century's) way of working, as politicians need to bribe people for their votes. Definitely not beyond the realm of normal expectations of history.. nor finance.. which is littered with them. If instead they said.. the merde is about to frapper la ventilateur at top speed (the ventilator being you and me), then I might agree with that.
  17. Around here, since the depression began, I'm seeing lots more begging and prostitution. But anyway, enough of my wife's responsibilities.
  18. From the European Criminal Bank itself... http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2011/html/sp110615.en.html So as the merde hits the ventilateur, the ECB won't be too keen to smack it down.. they're the biggest gold bugs out there.
  19. Ask not for whom the bell tolls.. Given that Germany is refusing (at the moment) to allow direct ECB printy printy, the only other way is to take it directly from you and me. So they will either start mandating that people with savings must put it into bonds (or some other tax on idle savings in some way), or they will use the to force your goverment to hand over money on demand.. which, given that goverments don't actually have any money, comes from erm.. you and me.We should not all be best chuffed at all this. Edit: given that the ESM is planned for mid 2013, the technocrats job is to keep the system from collapsing until then. At the point when the ESM is activated, everybody's wealth can then be funelled into the Eurozone, no questions asked.
  20. OP: I'm struggling to understand how having an inner/outer core solves the current situation. .. which is that if weak countries leave, they will (obviously) default on their debts to the stronger countries. .. whose banks will inevitably explode on the default. Perhaps the idea is to narrow the ESFS thingy so that it only bails out the stronger countries' banks, then less money will need to be put into it. .. and that China etc. will be happier to put money into the ESFS knowing that all the weaker countries will have left.
  21. Could you imagine it - politicians taken the power back from the banksters ? They must be living in a dream-world to believe they could do it. If the politicians don't do what the banksters want (with or without such legislation), the banksters will just threaten to shut down the ATMs. Maybe the politicians want to force the BoE to press the 'Copy x 10000000000' button in a crises to wipe out all paper wealth (and more importantly debt).
  22. Or it might go into metals (not trying to provoke a discussion on this.. just saying..) On the EU inflation Vs deflation thing, if theChinese are now the last bailout hope (before we go for extra-terrestrail bailouts), they are going to demand real guarantees on their debts.. either backed by gold bullion, interest in business, physical infrastructure, overpowering political influence... OR... demand they the get paid back in renminbi. If they do that, then EU printing is out of the question. One thing is for sure.. the chinese won't be the next idiots re: socialists 'running out of other people's money / then defaulting on it' So the whole EU outcome might depend on this outcome alone: If China limits EU printing in their bailout terms, Germany will love that outcome, as the weak countries will have to get the sh*t together - ie. they won't Greece etc. might leave - Deflation Outcome, Germany won't be seen to be the evil guys who made it all happen. If China doesn't limit EU printing, Germany might leave, as high/hyper inflation could take off - Inflation Outcome. There's a lot riding on the Chinese talks - especially for inflation hedgers who are sure that EU will inflate - the political decision between Inflation/Deflation might lie in the hands of the Chinese, not the EUidiots in charge. But they still need to find leverage to boost the chinese funds up to the 1 trill. figure. If Chinese prevents leverage of their 'investment', then the EU is broke / must fracture into a thousand pieces, in which case they won't be handing over anything. It's all to play for.. it could go off in any direction from here.
  23. Great find.. thanks for posting. Isn't this exactly what Cast Iron Dave is trying to do with his Big Society .. so he's trying to encourage not derail it ? He's done such a lousy job trying to explain and impose it on everyone.. perhaps he needs everyone to find it for themselves before it succeeds... Power is always taken, never given, and all that.
  24. Good post... at least they are honest, and feel no need to 'say the right thing' to the baying crowd. On the other hand it would probably be career suicide to answer the question honestly, if they did have a vague idea of an answer. So self preservation has to be a reason for their silence too. But Schiff was pointing out that 'theoretical economics' is perfectly useless they give answers to the 'applied economics' ie. to the real economical problems that are bringing people out on the streets. He was also saying that as economists, they have no accountability, no need to answer the hard questions with the threat of being strung up on a lamppost - as politicans face. He is a VI, but he has the balls to stand up and be counted(elected). Even given their 'economic specialisations', these guys should be put in a box until their subtle theories might be appreciated. Pre-revolution days are not the time to be putting these guys on a stage to answer questions to the baying crowd. Possibly the big mistake was putting these guys into the press conference in the first place... they shouldn't have been there. At some point the politicians are going to have to make a very difficult decision as to who they represent - their current masters (the banksters who threaten to shut down the cash machines), or the people who elect them. There will come a time, when these 'Occupy the streets' become bigger and more widespread, and that decision will draw closer. If the banksters continue hoarding the QE money (recapitalising they call it), then the politicians will come to a conclusion (correctly or not) that the banking system needs to be bypassed/nationalised/told what to do, to get loans and money out into the real world, with probably even fewer checks on whether the loan to the individual/corporation can be justified. Just get the money out there and buy some time to stop civil decay, and buy time to design the next financial system.. Bretton woods X. This will be the energy for your M, as the politicians won't allow deflation.
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