ccc Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 I know a little about the market crash mainly due to this site. I have been telling folk on a few other forums (football etc..) for ages and now there is not much of an argument about the crash compared to before. However, I am quite surprised by what I am seeing already - from a fair few people. "Bargains to be had" "Take advantage" "Offer 10% off" etc... Have we reached the bull trap already ?! Are people that dumb to think we are nearing the bottom already? Six months to sort out 10 years of gorging ourselves on debt ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchbux Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 I know a little about the market crash mainly due to this site. I have been telling folk on a few other forums (football etc..) for ages and now there is not much of an argument about the crash compared to before. However, I am quite surprised by what I am seeing already - from a fair few people. "Bargains to be had" "Take advantage" "Offer 10% off" etc... Have we reached the bull trap already ?! Are people that dumb to think we are nearing the bottom already? Six months to sort out 10 years of gorging ourselves on debt ? Nah. The graph is just a bit out. Bull Trap round these parts was late 2006. Had our old placed valued and valuation was lower than near neighbours actual sale price for smaller house - 'market peaked'. Sold 2008 at higher than 2006 valuation despite local market drying up mid 2007. Firmly in 'Fear' IMHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchbux Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Apologies for the dreadful grammar/punctuation. Multi-tasking skills not functioning at present, and OH is having one of his 'technophobe' moments with a borrowed TomTom bless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted July 15, 2008 Author Share Posted July 15, 2008 Nah. The graph is just a bit out. Bull Trap round these parts was late 2006. Had our old placed valued and valuation was lower than near neighbours actual sale price for smaller house - 'market peaked'. Sold 2008 at higher than 2006 valuation despite local market drying up mid 2007. Firmly in 'Fear' IMHO. I am in JockLand remember. We are a bit behind up here, not quite at the fear stage, getting close however Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchbux Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 I am in JockLand remember. We are a bit behind up here, not quite at the fear stage, getting close however Fear and kilts can't be a good combination Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 I think we're past the bull trap stage. Many of the property industry VIs are now pleading with sellers to drop their prices. They know this is the only solution to make some sales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchbux Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Yes - but VIs will keep trumpeting 'the bottom' every day for the next decade, until they are right. (And lots of poor s*ds will believe them. It will only be the bottom when no one believes them.) Current typical EA cashflow is probably well into Despair, so for them that is 'the bottom' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ted Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 "Bargains to be had" "Take advantage" "Offer 10% off" etc... I've had the same thing, your not getting any younger, your paying someone's mortgage. Get a bargain now. I don't think we have reached capitulation yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DblEntry Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Bull trap in London. Someone I respect highly at work has just told me that 'now is a good time to buy'. No coincidence they have their own property in London. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchbux Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Bull trap in London. Someone I respect highly at work has just told me that 'now is a good time to buy'.No coincidence they have their own property in London. I thought things down there were on 'Return to Normal' and just turning the corner? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest KingCharles1st Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Bull trap was late summer/Autumn 2005- surely..? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mondo Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 And HPC itself is where? I put us somewhere in the Bear trap - Media attention - Enthusiasm stretch... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairies Wear Boots Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Are we going to have a bull trap? Yeah there's people out there 'taking advantage' of the falling prices. But prices are still falling, we're not having a rally. Prices didn't go down enough, if at all in 2005. The sheeple never really thought prices were falling. Therefore I wouldn't class the boom between then and august 2007 as a bull trap. Though I can see how some could count it as such. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchbux Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 And HPC itself is where? I put us somewhere in the Bear trap - Media attention - Enthusiasm stretch... Oooh, at least on Enthusiasm! The Daily Mail is publishing bear food almost daily. Even got in there myself today (indirectly) - described as 'predatory' by a local agent, a touch harsh I thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Yogi Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Yes - but VIs will keep trumpeting 'the bottom' every day for the next decade, until they are right. (And lots of poor s*ds will believe them. It will only be the bottom when no one believes them.) Sounds like a strange inverted version of the last five years on here! Can we expect a housepriceboom.co.uk website to emerge in the next month or so? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongboes Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 I don't think we are going to see a bull trap like the graph shows this time around. Have just had a fantastic example of this with the indices since jan, now it's a one way ticket. We are at the fear stage, capitulation is years off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 I don't think we are going to see a bull trap like the graph shows this time around. Have just had a fantastic example of this with the indices since jan, now it's a one way ticket.We are at the fear stage, capitulation is years off. Have to agree. Bear trap will be largely missed out due to a complete lack of 'positive ' news to report. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Cuthbert Cadsworthy Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Unless the bull trap happens much later than shown in the generic graph. Remember Norman Lamont's 'green shoots of recovery' after years of misery, which turned out to be just a fake rally before more years of misery? Or maybe the bull trap happened in the media a few weeks ago, with many saying the worst of the credit crunch was now over. I know people who bought in that period. It just was not a bull trap that was visible in a graph of house prices, as they were in freefall, but a temporary and not widely felt improvement in sentiment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Bull trap was late summer/Autumn 2005- surely..? Agreed. That insane rate cut of Aug 2005 prompted an extra spurt of air for the bubble that has now well & truly burst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadmist Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 I'd argue we're actually still in denial and the majority of the general populace still believe house prices only ever rise... I guess there'll be a short bull-trap where things pick up for a few months maybe early 2009 and then complete capitulation for a year or two. Although I can see argument that says the bull-trap was in 2005 I guess only time will tell which is most accurate... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5lab Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 surely the mean is way off on that graph. the end shows 'return to mean' and the start shows us starting there, but if this is a cycle, the mean line should have the same volume between it and actual prices above and below the line - clearly sale prices are way above the line for majority Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieChuck Posted July 16, 2008 Share Posted July 16, 2008 I'd argue we're actually still in denial and the majority of the general populace still believe house prices only ever rise... I guess there'll be a short bull-trap where things pick up for a few months maybe early 2009 and then complete capitulation for a year or two. Although I can see argument that says the bull-trap was in 2005 I guess only time will tell which is most accurate... I firmly believe the bull trap was 2005-6, houses at that point were unaffordable in the long term, the bubble inflated more in 2006-7 by 125% mortgages, 10 x income loans, liar laons, etc. It was the last panic fueled days of a bubble. I agree though that there are still the majority in complete denial that house prices will do anything other than keep going up every year, and it is these that have ability to start prices increasing again by flooding back into the market, especially if the rate of falls slow down one month. The only thing stopping them is availability of credit, and I don't think the banks are going to go back to the last few years style of lending. So, until we hit a point where banks are comfortable lending again en masse, which no doubt will be sensible income multiples and larger deposits, prices will keep falling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.