delboypass Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 Where have all the Aberdeen posters gone to??? Whatts the latest news on the streets?? i think im actually seeing price rises still increasing.. Coupled to petitions to stop new builds (which is more than irritating) Still a lot of development with Stewart milne on Queens Cross.. And potential for porthlen/ a bit further out Newmachar developments over the next 2 years... further out, still major industrial developments in Westhill (and small commercial) Renovation to buildings within Aberdeen (new office next to Gala casino nearing completion) Still not seeing sensible prices yet though.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quine Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 Where have all the Aberdeen posters gone to???Whatts the latest news on the streets?? i think im actually seeing price rises still increasing.. Coupled to petitions to stop new builds (which is more than irritating) Still a lot of development with Stewart milne on Queens Cross.. And potential for porthlen/ a bit further out Newmachar developments over the next 2 years... further out, still major industrial developments in Westhill (and small commercial) Renovation to buildings within Aberdeen (new office next to Gala casino nearing completion) Still not seeing sensible prices yet though.. News on the street is that the initial view that the house price crash wasn't happening in Aberdeen is now incorrect as people realise that there's not a lot selling. Have a look on the ASPC website...prices are being reduced, sales are falling through (being marked as under offer then re-appearing at fixed prices). I have never seen so many family sized homes on the market before. These are usually snapped up pretty quickly. To see them on at fixed price is astonishing and shouts "desperation". I am also aware that sellers are accepting less than "fixed price" on properties. The Stewart Milne new builds at Queens Road (bad, bad, bad) are not selling - and I have that on good authority. So the crash is gathering momentum in Aberdeen but as expected it just takes a bit longer to reach here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted May 12, 2008 Author Share Posted May 12, 2008 But you need only look at the houses on ASPC to see where the growth is.. i have viewed a number of houses over the last 2 years so now have the expereince to re-evaluate many of them now they are coming back onto the market.. One in hazelhead..sold in 2006/7 £200k...now on market..offers over £300k... All houses in Cove (new builds) selling 2006/7 £150k...now sellig offers over £250k All houses in blackburn selling 2006/7 £150k now offeres voer £250k.. There isnt enough family houses i dont think and the council keep blocking all the new applications (because they dont have affordable housing listed in the plans) They fail to see that oversupply will cause all houses to become affordable... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted May 12, 2008 Author Share Posted May 12, 2008 Ho many does Stewart milne still have to complete at Queens cross...looks like another 2/3 tower blocks still going up... but every time i drive by on main roda, it appears like the first 2 blocks only have about 6/7 lights on in what i guess to be 30/40 apartments.. Anyway to validate how many have sold vs how many are available..? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unexpected Posted May 15, 2008 Share Posted May 15, 2008 But you need only look at the houses on ASPC to see where the growth is..i have viewed a number of houses over the last 2 years so now have the expereince to re-evaluate many of them now they are coming back onto the market.. One in hazelhead..sold in 2006/7 £200k...now on market..offers over £300k... All houses in Cove (new builds) selling 2006/7 £150k...now sellig offers over £250k All houses in blackburn selling 2006/7 £150k now offeres voer £250k.. There isnt enough family houses i dont think and the council keep blocking all the new applications (because they dont have affordable housing listed in the plans) They fail to see that oversupply will cause all houses to become affordable... Not true about Blackburn I dont think. Mate bought a newbuild 4 bed detatched for £225K in September 06. Now similar going for offers over £250k. Dont seem to be selling. Realistically probably worth £250K to get a sale. No of homes for sale in Blackburn and Westill increasing by the day. Aberdeen (except the more desirable areas) is now in stagnation IMO. No one buying at these prices. Sellers just haven't quite figured it out yet. When they do, it will get rather interesting to say the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted May 15, 2008 Author Share Posted May 15, 2008 Not true about Blackburn I dont think.Mate bought a newbuild 4 bed detatched for £225K in September 06. Now similar going for offers over £250k. Dont seem to be selling. Realistically probably worth £250K to get a sale. No of homes for sale in Blackburn and Westill increasing by the day. Aberdeen (except the more desirable areas) is now in stagnation IMO. No one buying at these prices. Sellers just haven't quite figured it out yet. When they do, it will get rather interesting to say the least. Nah, blackburn new builds were moving for £150k 3 bedroom and £170k for 4 bedroom new build....probably about what thye are worth...could build one for £90k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 Anyone else noticed the large amount of houses and flats lying empty in the city? I live in Broomhill Road, and a casual walk from South Anderson Drive to Holburn St. reveals about 18 obviously empty properties, not counting the ones which are for sale or lease. Anecdotally, a neighbour of mine sold up and moved to the shire last August. Sold their modern tenement flat for a FORTUNE to a BTL. Flat still not occupied. A back-of-the-fag-packet calculation of mortgage payment or rent loss for the time the property has been empty is about £8k. How can this be sustainable? Why is their so much empty property? Who is absorbing the losses on this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klee Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 Anyone else noticed the large amount of houses and flats lying empty in the city? I live in Broomhill Road, and a casual walk from South Anderson Drive to Holburn St. reveals about 18 obviously empty properties, not counting the ones which are for sale or lease.Anecdotally, a neighbour of mine sold up and moved to the shire last August. Sold their modern tenement flat for a FORTUNE to a BTL. Flat still not occupied. A back-of-the-fag-packet calculation of mortgage payment or rent loss for the time the property has been empty is about £8k. How can this be sustainable? Why is their so much empty property? Who is absorbing the losses on this? Can't comment on the houses but the flats I can, 1 and 2 beds are still high in demand, especially 1 beds, they won't sit on the market for more than a week or two. 2 beds take a little longer to go but demand is still high. You can call any letting agent in Aberdeen and they will confirm the same. I have 2 x 1 beds on Broomhill Road, both gone within 1 week and rent £575. If that flat is still empty then I can only guess that they are charging silly rent which is putting off renters. You don't know the circumstances of the empty properties, I have a friend who's 1 bed flat has been empty for 5 years on Holburn Road, he moved out in to a bigger place and just kept that one without even renting it out, he could afford to do this as his mortgage on his 1st property is so low. With your back of the fag calc and the £8k figure, your only guessing, you don't know what the purchaser has put down on that property and what his payments (if any) are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted June 5, 2008 Share Posted June 5, 2008 Can't comment on the houses but the flats I can, 1 and 2 beds are still high in demand, especially 1 beds, they won't sit on the market for more than a week or two. 2 beds take a little longer to go but demand is still high. You can call any letting agent in Aberdeen and they will confirm the same. I have 2 x 1 beds on Broomhill Road, both gone within 1 week and rent £575. If that flat is still empty then I can only guess that they are charging silly rent which is putting off renters. You don't know the circumstances of the empty properties, I have a friend who's 1 bed flat has been empty for 5 years on Holburn Road, he moved out in to a bigger place and just kept that one without even renting it out, he could afford to do this as his mortgage on his 1st property is so low. With your back of the fag calc and the £8k figure, your only guessing, you don't know what the purchaser has put down on that property and what his payments (if any) are. As luck would have it, the flat in question went on sale yesterday, asking price about £25k less than it sold for in August. A look at aspc pictures show total refurbishment, (new kitchen plus appliances, a wall removed, new bathroom, new flooring, re-plastered etc etc) I guess at a cost of about £10k. So, loss so far about £35k, plus the notional loss of being empty for 10 months £8k (a guess, admittedly) and transactional costs, call it in total a conservative £45k or 22% of the asking price. That's quite a bit of value destruction, I'm sure you would agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted June 5, 2008 Author Share Posted June 5, 2008 (edited) ASPC Link?? I think Aberdeen is not going to go down whilst oil is at $130 I i ever comes back down then were ok Also hey said last night another 30 years of oil in north sea...and now aberdeen positioning itself as european base centre...between houston and rest of world.. Still a crummy town though and all shops on union street closing..but they are changing rules to put in more pubs and clubs ..?? although Labour saying we drink to much?? This will only lead to more pubs going bust i would have though... And how many fricken hotels does aberdeen need..!! Thats 3 new hotels going up in aberdeen..!! Old E&Ms, one in Satrosphere, and one in old mothercare...!! And more shop space...lol...can they not see the 'To Lease' signs in PRIME A aberdeen?? Only thing left on aberdeen now is pubs and Betting shops...and a few banks.. Mens clothes reduced to 3 shops..burtons, river island .. well 2 then... Edited June 6, 2008 by delboypass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownbootcuts Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 And how many fricken hotels does aberdeen need..!! Many more, as companies are having a terrible time finding beds for people who travel up to the city in order to fly out to the North Sea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 Hi Delboypass, Here's the link. As for the high oil price sustaining the Aberdeen property bubble - well, don't believe the hype. I too watched the Truth, Lies, Oil & Scotland documentary, and was unsurprised that it didn't tell us anything new. Seems BBC Scotland has become the agitprop wing of the SNP. No amount of wishful thinking, favourable tax regimes or high prices per barrel will alter the geology of the UKCS. The amount of recoverable reserves remains the same as it was 100,000 years ago. Enhanced recovery techniques, infill drilling, hi-res reservoir modeling etc CAN prolong the productive life of a field, but only incrementally, at great cost, and subject to the law of diminishing returns. For instance, the East Texas oilfield has been producing since the 1930's at 100,000 barrels per day. During the 40's and 50's that was 100,000 barrels of pure crude. Today, the field still produces 100,000 barrels per day, it's just that 99,000 of those barrels are water. On the documentary, Apache Oil were proud of their success extending the productive life of the Forties field. I've attached a graph of what that "success" looks like. Fact is that UKCS production peaked between 1999 and 2001 and has declined on average 10% per year since. This cannot change. Link. Industrial activity levels in Aberdeen will inevitably reflect this. Aberdeen can indeed seem to be a crummy town at times - I tend to avoid the city centre as much as possible these days, I try not to go further east than the Music Hall. However, right now, viewed from Kincorth or Altens, the city looks at its most beautiful with the gleaming white granite terraces punctuating the vast green sward of the newly re-leafed trees; easy access to the highlands, beaches, cliffs; a cultural life unparalleled anywhere by a city this small (the Russian State Symphony Orchestra visited last month); excellent mixed terrain cycling accessible from anywhere in the city; and a sh*te football team. No, I'll not be leaving, tempting though the cheap house prices in Arbroath, Montrose, Carnoustie, Dundee etc may be. As for the hotels, a friend of mine's father is a (now retired) hotel developer. He developed the Skean Dhu hotels in the 70's. Just before he retired, he tried to get the council to accept his plan for a 5-star hotel straddling the Denburn, next to the HM Theatre. They turned his proposal down. Pity, 'cos then we could have had Education, Salvation, Damnation and Accommodation! Boom Boom! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted June 6, 2008 Author Share Posted June 6, 2008 (edited) How on earth or who on earth does Stewart Milne expect to pay for this?? Right move - 2 bed Flat - Stewart milne - >£300,00.00 PS - Your link doesnt work? Edited June 6, 2008 by delboypass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brite2006 Posted June 11, 2008 Share Posted June 11, 2008 ASPC link: http://www.aspc.co.uk/ I'm on the edge of Highlands and Moray, and sales appeared to have slowed after strong inflation over the past year. However, so far as I understand it, the property market ripples out from London and Scotland is among the last places to see it. So while Scottish prices are generally buoyant at present, I would expect Scotland prices to follow English ones over the next year. 2c. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northblogger Posted June 12, 2008 Share Posted June 12, 2008 Where have all the Aberdeen posters gone to???Whatts the latest news on the streets?? i think im actually seeing price rises still increasing.. Coupled to petitions to stop new builds (which is more than irritating) Still a lot of development with Stewart milne on Queens Cross.. And potential for porthlen/ a bit further out Newmachar developments over the next 2 years... further out, still major industrial developments in Westhill (and small commercial) Renovation to buildings within Aberdeen (new office next to Gala casino nearing completion) Still not seeing sensible prices yet though.. There are a number of good west end properties on the market that are not moving, I think up until recently they would have sold within a fortnight.and for big money relative to size - these are semi detached houses. They have gone from offers over to fixed price and in one case lower fixed price. For example see the first house on the nethouseprices list via the link below (number 19 ). It sold last June for 342,189, was up at offers over and recently went to fixed price around the 340k and is now on for fixed price of 320k on the aspc site. Last time there was a crash in Aberdeen houses around this west end area still sold whilst the Bridge of Don crashed badly, I suspect the slip has begun. http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?co...gToSearch=80510 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted June 13, 2008 Share Posted June 13, 2008 I've just had a shocking thought about house prices in central Aberdeen: City centre & west end prices fairly static right now, or showing slight drops, but development of newbuild flats in the city on any vacant lot available still going ahead. http://www.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/SINGLE?ID=257731 I asked myself why... then I thought about the price of petrol. Be aware that the price at the pumps right now has more relation to oil when it was about $80/b rather than $120 - $130. I expect that by the end of the year we will start to see the hollowing out of the suburbs as the cost of commuting becomes too much to bear for some. More central locations will see a corresponding UPSWING in demand. Some prices in Portlethen, Dyce, Kingswells and Peterculter are already beginning to look attractive. A move to Culter would suit me just fine... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted June 14, 2008 Author Share Posted June 14, 2008 Suppose my plans for aberdeen underground train system like london tube is out of the plan now :-(( lets review Aberdeenshire public transport though.. How shoddy and expensive is it anyway...and how long does it take to get anywhere...will take you 2 buses to most places from Aberdeen Always going to be loads of cars on the road, mostly single drivers trying to get ahead of game.. I reckon once we hit the downturn and hopefully all the foreign workers have had enough with our eternal winter, numerous opportunities will open up... Just a waiting and seeing.. On other side, Aberdeen council lost its funding for Social/Housing associations flats...(well reduced anyway) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted June 15, 2008 Share Posted June 15, 2008 Always going to be loads of cars on the road D'you think so? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted June 15, 2008 Author Share Posted June 15, 2008 being the oil capital of europe and only 212000 inhabitants on Aberdeen with rest in Aberdeenshire, i cant see a slow down in traffic any time soon. Majority of people live in countryside Just look at westhill, dyce, A90 traffic backlogs in the morning and afternoon (probably says more about the designs than level of traffic though) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted June 16, 2008 Share Posted June 16, 2008 Hi delboypass I'd refer you to my previous postings about North Sea industrial activity inevitably following the depletion curve of output, the fact that the price of petrol (lagging the oil price by 4-6 months) is likely to increase by a further 40-50% by Christmas (and will continue to rise), and my perception that house prices in the suburbs are already falling faster than those in the city. The age of discretionary motoring is coming to an end - and it will hurt those who are not prepared for the transition. The motoring landscape will have changed beyond recognition by 2011. Oil and gas will be rationed and ring-fenced for strategic purposes (fertiliser manufacture, insecticides, plastics, pharmaceuticals). You may expect to see oilfields being nationalised. As the Shah of Iran said "oil is to valuable to burn". Expect to see a groundswell of indifference to the AWPR and a corresponding increasing clamour for the restoration of Aberdeen City Trams, the Old Deeside Line, Formartine and Buchan Line, Vale of Alford Railway etc. These are the only measures which will save the suburbs - and they're not likely to be implemented soon. Meantime, people will want to live closer to where they work or work closer to where they live. This will inevitably lead to a continuation of and acceleration in the trend of house prices in the suburbs and elsewhere in the shire falling faster than those in the city - great news for those who can telework, but a disaster for those who (at present) have chosen commuting as their way of life - they will face increasing costs and an increasing loss unless they are in a position to take action and move home soon. BTW. I totally agree with your assessments of the state of public transport at the moment. I don't use it, but I don't drive either. I met a guy in Westhill who works in the harbour area. He complained to me that it took him 1 hour to get to work in the morning! An hour! I can cycle that route in 30 minutes on about 80% dedicated cycle routes and on-road cycle paths. It's about 45 mins on the way back 'tho. (net uphill). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted June 16, 2008 Author Share Posted June 16, 2008 Driving A90 today...have you seen Stewart milne has started on new 2 bed apartments next to A90 where old fire station was i believe... Imagine living next to that road... Almost as bad as his Queens cross developments... No idea what this council is doing as recently they turned down developments for a central aberdeen flat proposal for disused brown site (off george street i think) I suppose the question should be: How many back handers has stewart milne given or council planners does Stewart milne own?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted June 16, 2008 Share Posted June 16, 2008 Driving A90 today...have you seen Stewart milne has started on new 2 bed apartments next to A90 where old fire station was i believe...Imagine living next to that road... Almost as bad as his Queens cross developments... No idea what this council is doing as recently they turned down developments for a central aberdeen flat proposal for disused brown site (off george street i think) I suppose the question should be: How many back handers has stewart milne given or council planners does Stewart milne own?? As mentioned, development within the city might not be as daft as it looks given the asymmetric dynamic of the decline. We have a name for these new-build overpriced tenements - "Crapitecture" - they seem to have invaded every city in the UK. From what I understand, the build quality is very low - were I a bank, I would be wary about mortgaging them. Is it true what I've heard about the maximum floor-loading of the Kepplestone crapitecture slums of tomorrow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted June 16, 2008 Author Share Posted June 16, 2008 As mentioned, development within the city might not be as daft as it looks given the asymmetric dynamic of the decline. We have a name for these new-build overpriced tenements - "Crapitecture" - they seem to have invaded every city in the UK. From what I understand, the build quality is very low - were I a bank, I would be wary about mortgaging them. Is it true what I've heard about the maximum floor-loading of the Kepplestone crapitecture slums of tomorrow? Whats story did you here ?? I heard there was a party in a specific stewart milne flat somewhere near queens cross and the party fell through the floor.. When the relooked over the contract, it stated not to be more than so many people in the kitchen at one time Not bad for £300,000 But seriously, keep going up the hill til you see the new 2 beds on the fire station next to about 12 lanes of furious traffic...Nice plenty of redevelopment in aberdeen...why for instance rather than building 3 story blocks dont we build 4 story blocks..and get an instant 25% increase..oh because it might block some views...piishh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownbootcuts Posted June 16, 2008 Share Posted June 16, 2008 Whats story did you here ?? I heard there was a party in a specific stewart milne flat somewhere near queens cross and the party fell through the floor.. When the relooked over the contract, it stated not to be more than so many people in the kitchen at one time Not bad for £300,000 But seriously, keep going up the hill til you see the new 2 beds on the fire station next to about 12 lanes of furious traffic...Nice plenty of redevelopment in aberdeen...why for instance rather than building 3 story blocks dont we build 4 story blocks..and get an instant 25% increase..oh because it might block some views...piishh The story about the floor falling through: What apparently happened was that there were 12-20 people in the flat/apartment and the neighbours underneath complained that their roof was bowing. On contacting Stewart Milne company they were informed that their contract states that no more than 8 or so people should be in the one room at a given time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted June 17, 2008 Share Posted June 17, 2008 Maybe this Kepplestone story's an urban myth. I've heard it from a few sources now, and always "a friend of a friend". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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