Tiger Woods? Posted April 21, 2008 Share Posted April 21, 2008 Many people think that prices will decline just to the trend line. But that ignores the fact that they always over correct, as the most recent boom artificially inflates the trend. A fall of 50% is by no means unrealistic. It also ignores the fact that the trend line on that graph has been skewed by the recent bubble. If we included the di[p that will come, one would see a lower trend line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 21, 2008 Author Share Posted April 21, 2008 It also ignores the fact that the trend line on that graph has been skewed by the recent bubble. If we included the di[p that will come, one would see a lower trend line. TOTALLY agree --- you are EXACTLY right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abharrisson Posted April 21, 2008 Share Posted April 21, 2008 TOTALLY agree --- you are EXACTLY right. I'm afraid I am beyond salvation... I know house prices are falling and will fall further... I have read and digested all the stats and can see the argument of correcting to trend with initially a correction under trend... I have looked at past corrections and see a similar pattern.... but I still do not believe there will be a crash of the proportion all here seem to be banking on and praying for. I simply cannot see 50% actual price fall (pre inflation adjustment) , in fact i really don't think it will go beyond 15%.. probably a little less. I know many will say I must be mad as I have the predictive evidence in front of me.... but afraid to say I am not a believer in the size of correction being discussed. I suppose I could construct come sort of argument but in the end the stats for 40% plus are stronger... I suppose I just feel in my gut that it won't happen.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 21, 2008 Author Share Posted April 21, 2008 Interestingly, I have seen a large amount of properties (that were supposedly sold a month or so ago) come back on the market! Seems EAs are just too keen to get those sold boards up It's a very, very old trick they use -- so that the sign is just an advert which tells people they "sell" property.... It's pathetic really... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 21, 2008 Author Share Posted April 21, 2008 They dont bother me, Its no different from reading something like the Sun with all the whacky fonts and sizes..In fact I quite like it, but who the f**k am I. You're a good bloke that's wot!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest barebear Posted April 21, 2008 Share Posted April 21, 2008 (edited) So is now the best time to buy a house Eric ? I earn 20k and need to borrow 200k, can you recommend the best lie to buy mortgage on the market please. Edited April 21, 2008 by barebear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 21, 2008 Author Share Posted April 21, 2008 (edited) So is now the best time to buy a house Eric ?I earn 20k and need to borrow 200k, can you recommend the best lie to buy mortgage on the market please. Go to the lenders LIARLOAN MORTGAGE CO: Ltd. [the real name for most of them] -- bend over - and ask to be s****ed up the jacksie..... Edited April 21, 2008 by eric pebble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReggiePerrin Posted April 21, 2008 Share Posted April 21, 2008 So is now the best time to buy a house Eric ?I earn 20k and need to borrow 200k, can you recommend the best lie to buy mortgage on the market please. You might save some money by cutting out the middleman and apply directly to the BOE for a mortgage? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azbola Posted April 21, 2008 Share Posted April 21, 2008 1) 70K Average wage in London? No. That is balls. 2) 50% falls? Perfectly possible - they went up 200% didn't they, so why not? 3) Eric, in the interest of fairness can you change that graph so it starts at £0 rather than £42,000 - it's impressive anyway without giving the appearance of "massaging" the figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReggiePerrin Posted April 21, 2008 Share Posted April 21, 2008 3) Eric, in the interest of fairness can you change that graph so it starts at £0 rather than £42,000 - it's impressive anyway without giving the appearance of "massaging" the figures. Hi Azbola The graph is Nationwides, you'll find it on the HPC home page. We've been watching it go up over the last few years for no good reason, now it's looking very interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 21, 2008 Author Share Posted April 21, 2008 Hi AzbolaThe graph is Nationwides, you'll find it on the HPC home page. We've been watching it go up over the last few years for no good reason, now it's looking very interesting. It's SUPERB!!! IT TELLS THE TRUTH..... It tells you EVERYTHING you need to know......... [well just about anyway....] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 21, 2008 Author Share Posted April 21, 2008 1) 70K Average wage in London? No. That is balls.2) 50% falls? Perfectly possible - they went up 200% didn't they, so why not? 3) Eric, in the interest of fairness can you change that graph so it starts at £0 rather than £42,000 - it's impressive anyway without giving the appearance of "massaging" the figures. I got that graph straight from the Homepage of this site Azbola!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 21, 2008 Author Share Posted April 21, 2008 (edited) More letters/comments have arrived at the Times's good article -- nearly 150 when I last looked......... Most of them agreeing things are totally crazy - prices are a joke -- etc etc. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=74921 Edited April 21, 2008 by eric pebble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 21, 2008 Author Share Posted April 21, 2008 Another very, very good article today in the Telegaph: -- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...0/ccliam120.xml But I think the BEST letter/comment to that article is this one.... it is SUPERB!! Anyone here send that? "Mr Miles, Your faith-based optimism is utterly preposterous. You have considered a very narrow aspect of the current crisis and concluded that the dommsayers are all Chicken Lickens. What you have failed to grasp is the context in which falling house prices are to be found. In this country, and indeed the world, we have a FIAT monetary system in which 'liquid' cash is spirited out of thin air when someone (personal, corporate or government) takes out a loan of any kind. At the point of signing the pledge to repay the bank has the right under law to magically assign the loan value to your account. The milli-second before the pledge to repay was signed that money did not exist anywhere on this planet. The capital sum is then added to the general money supply via the debtors bank account. However, when it is repaid, the sum repaid is the original capital plus the interest. Bear in mind only the capital was created out of thin air. The interest was not. Whoever took out the loan pays it back over the period usually at monthly intervals drawing the repayments from that same pool, the money supply. Therefore, how can you pay back more money than was ever created? Simple. Someone else has to be persuaded to take out a loan the following month to keep the pool topped up. Without writing new loans every month at an exponential (compound interest) rate the pool will dry up and there will be no liquid to repay the existing loans. i.e. the system crashes. This is the point you have entirely missed.What you have also missed is the effect of the credit crunch on employment. You have assumed that either people will retain their existing (non-manufacturing) jobs or when they are made redundant Gordon Brown will employ them as civil servants adding to the 50% of the working population which already are civil sevants (overheads). Without employment you cannot service the loan. If you cannot service the loan you need to sell to downgrade. To sell, you need to drop the price in an already saturated market. Now your redemption value is less than your loan value. Now you are bankrupt. It is necessary for the current fiscal system to 'survive' that the rate of house price rises and hence debt and hence money supply must follow the compound interest rule. A FIAT monetary system is predicated on the exponential 'creation' of money which in turn is entirely based on debt. Without debt, and an ever increasing amount of debt, there would be no money. Thats how this criminal system works. If everyone magically paid their mortgage off tomorrow there would be no money left to run the economy because it would return to the black hole from whence it came. Gordon Brown has overseen the largest creation of money (debt) this country has ever witnessed. Now the day of reckoning has come. No amount of faith-based optimism is going to change the underlying principle on which our fiscal system is predicated. Please google "Money as Debt" and "Fractional Reserve Banking" and educate yourself on how our monetary system works. Posted by Norrie C on April 20, 2008 9:54 AM" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 And another good article from The Economist: -- British banking Providing cover Apr 21st 2008 From Economist.com The Bank of England offers help AFP AS THE global banking crisis has gone on, central banks have repeatedly had to improvise responses to an ever-worsening financial storm. In America, the Federal Reserve stretched its powers to the limit when it organised the rescue of Bear Stearns. Now the Bank of England has come up with an innovative plan—a “special liquidity scheme” that may provide at least £50 billion ($100 billion) to help troubled British banks. The need for a new approach has been clear for several weeks. The most obvious sign has been the elevated (Libor) rate at which banks raise funds through the money markets. This is normally quite close to the Bank of England’s base rate, which sets the cost of overnight funds. When the crisis struck last August, however, it soared (see chart). The Bank of England’s decision in December to conduct special auctions, providing three-month funds to banks, seemed to do the trick at the start of this year. But the relief was temporary, and the interbank rate has recently been painfully higher than the base rate. Since much lending is priced off three-month Libor, the tensions in the banking system have in effect wiped out much of the monetary easing from the three cuts in the base rate which have brought it down from 5.75% in early December to 5%. The mutual mistrust among banks reflects worries about the bad loans they have made and their ability to raise funds in a hurry. The longer the mistrust persists, the greater will be the economic fall-out as banks cut back on their lending. That in turn threatens a vicious circle, in which banks’ balance-sheets deteriorate still further. The central bank’s new scheme has been drawn up to arrest this danger. As Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, said on Monday April 21st, it is “designed to improve the liquidity position of the banking system and raise confidence in financial markets while ensuring that the risk of losses on the loans they have made remains with the banks”. ............/ Whereas banks in America and Europe have written down the value of their assets by tens of billions of dollars, British banks have merrily marked theirs down by far smaller amounts. Barclays, for instance, took a hit of just £1.6 billion, mainly on investments in derivatives and leveraged loans in 2007. Their complacency is now wearing thin. Some analysts now expect that Royal Bank of Scotland, Britain’s second-biggest bank, will reduce the value of its assets by as much as £5 billion this week (from a writedown of £1.6 billion in 2007). Similarly some analysts think that Barclays may cut the value of its assets by another £6 billion. As the big writedowns begin, British banks are now starting to beef up the capital that underpins their operations. Analysts expect that the Royal Bank will seek between £10 billion and £13 billion. Other banks are likely to follow including Barclays, which some analysts reckon may have to raise about £8 billion, and HBOS, which may need £11 billion. Laurence Mutkin of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, says that the Bank of England’s scheme should help bolster confidence by providing banks with greater certainty that their counterparties will not run out of cash. As important may be the fact that banks are finally admitting that they have skeletons in their cupboards, and that shareholders are being asked to share some of the pain of dealing with them. READ WHOLE ARTICLE HERE -- http://www.economist.com/world/britain/dis...ory_id=11077669 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 Things are changing.......... What is the upshot? - http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 The bad news just keeps coming.... B&B says more customers struggling to pay mortgages http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/ap...usiness.banking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wait & See Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 but claimed that the buy-to-let market is still buoyant. WTF?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 ........but claimed that the buy-to-let market is still buoyant. WTF?? I know, I know..... They have to talk it up -- their livelihood depends on it..... Yes - it is pathetic.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 (edited) Hi AzbolaThe graph is Nationwides, you'll find it on the HPC home page. We've been watching it go up over the last few years for no good reason, now it's looking very interesting. See this -- "George Soros, Economic Illiteracy and Monetary Policy" Very good read -- http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4422.html Edited April 22, 2008 by eric pebble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 See this -- "George Soros, Economic Illiteracy and Monetary Policy" Very good read -- http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4422.html UNDENPANTENS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 See this -- "George Soros, Economic Illiteracy and Monetary Policy" Very good read -- http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4422.html UNDENPANTENS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vested Disinterest Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 I could not believe my eyes when I saw a Google ad (search for p60) for this site (and many others) http://www.payslipsplus.co.uk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted April 22, 2008 Author Share Posted April 22, 2008 I could not believe my eyes when I saw a Google ad (search for p60) for this site (and many others)http://www.payslipsplus.co.uk INCREDIBLE isn't it?!?? Does anyone know someone in authority to point this out to? It is just incredible.... INCREDIBLE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cutiecat Posted April 22, 2008 Share Posted April 22, 2008 I could not believe my eyes when I saw a Google ad (search for p60) for this site (and many others)http://www.payslipsplus.co.uk I am totally gobsmacked. It is just wrong wrong wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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