Media Reports Uk

[subby]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7338512.stm

what sympathy

[spring]

Great, the UK Government and the Bank of England are going to try and bail the lenders out.

Hopefully this doesn't help keep prices artificially high...

[spring]

House price falls

This is the bit that always concerns me

"However, it is far from clear how quickly prices might adjust to such levels. It would probably need a large rise in unemployment and a big jump in repossessions for the forced selling to emerge which would bring a housing price collapse. So far, Britain's economy has slowed only moderately with minor job losses, so prices should drift rather than fall dramatically."

"Prices should drift" - not really that much use for those of us wanting to get on the ladder even if we do wait a few years.

[pootle]

Also from that report:

Advice from a professional

Miles Shipside, commercial director of online estate agent Rightmove, had a piece of advice for those trying to sell now.

"It's human nature, but in the current market, sellers should price below their competition to achieve more interest now and avoid a larger price drop later in the year."

[spring]

Also from that report:

well spotted...i find that a lot of the house price articles are full of conflicting predictions.... i suppose they're just trying to give a balanced report.

[spring]

House Prices - Disaster Ahead

This Times report is from 10 days ago so it may have already been posted. It's a really good analysis on UK house prices.

To summerarise, it basically says that the UK is in line for big falls as the the boom in the British housing market has been much bigger than the one in America.

However, the UK may "get away" with a 20-30% fall depending on personal incomes due to restrictive plannin etc.

I'm assuming though that the NI affordability situation is much worse than the rest of the UK and we would be in line for bigger falls. (maybe just wishful thinking on my part)

[paul65]

Thanks for that article Spring. Interesting reading.

This has just appeared on the BBC website this afternoon:

Economy 'facing painful slowdown'

The UK economy is set for a "rapid, painful adjustment" over the next two years, according to an influential economic forecasting group.

Growth will fall from 3.1% in 2007 to 1.8% this year and 1.5% in 2009 unless the government acts decisively predicted Ernst and Young's Item Club .

Employment will hold steady while manufacturing will reap the benefit of the strong pound, the report said.

But the outlook for the housing market and High Street is "bleak", it added.

House prices will fall by 10% in the next two years, while the number of people moving home will shrink by 40% , the report said.

And with consumers less able to borrow money because of lenders' stricter loan criteria, the growth in consumer spending will slow from 3% last year to 1% in 2008 and 2009, it predicted.

"Although the UK economy has remained relatively buoyant so far this year, our reliance upon international banking markets means it is only a matter of time before it slows," said Peter Spencer, the Item club's chief economic advisor.

"This is going to be a rapid, painful adjustment and it will be a rough ride for a substantial proportion of the population. We are facing a massive sea change in the balance of the economy."

Bond solution

The report calls on the government to be bold in tackling the problems faced by the economy.

It should consider borrowing money to fund mortgage lenders to attempt to stabilise the housing and exchange markets, minimising the risk of over-reaction, the report says.

The suggestion of funding banks is similar to that which the Bank of England is set to unveil on Monday.

It is set to swap about £50bn of government bonds for British banks' mortgages, the BBC has learned.

Mr Spencer said that this was the best solution to the crisis.

"Like it or not the Treasury must use its standing in the international markets to borrow and fund the mortgage lenders directly," he said.

The report added that a UK recession was unlikely, helped by high employment levels as well as growing exports on the back of the falling pound.

"We should be able to adjust to this situation if the government take decisive action now," Mr Spencer said.

"Nonetheless, if it does not, the risks are plain to see."

It looks like that 10% drop in house prices is a conservative one judging by the property discounting already going on here. Maybe it is an average figure for the whole of the UK?

Consumer spending and the impact on the High Street over the next two years is a worry. Victoria Square may go through some turbulence over the next 2 years then. I will have to keep a watching brief over how long it is before all commercial units there are completely filled with tenants.

The link to the story is here.

Edited April 20, 2008 by paul65

[spring]

10% - I'm no economist but 10% seems a very low figure over 2 years considering that the rest of the article is talking about the increase in growth being cut in half.

Are they seriously suggesting that with:

-it being really hard to get mortgages

-investors not interested in uk housing any more

-the number of people moving shrinking by nearly half

-loads of people probably getting laid off in any property related businesses

-repossessions soaring

that a 180k house is only going to decrease by 18k to 162k over the next 2 years!

if that's the case, loads of us may never get on the property ladder.

[spring]

Daily Mail - House prices falling year on year

...18% drops in 2 yrs seems conservative tho.

[spring]

Buy to let future

Once of those articles that comes once in while which gives us hope that prices will fall a lot...

Edited May 3, 2008 by spring

[JoeDavola]

From the above article on inside track:

a lot of their clients - and these are real, often poor people, who have made naïve mistakes, not the greedy idiots that the anti-landlord brigade like to make out - found out that the dream didn't live up to the hype.

Wrong - just because they were poor doesnt mean they weren't greedy. Their greed blinded their common sense, which is why they were stupid enough to give Inside Track thousands.

[spring]

Daily mail - worst of credit crunch still to come

But property website Rightmove today reports average asking prices rising in the past month, apparently because sellers refuse to accept the market is falling.

It found asking prices at an all-time high of £242,500 in May, up 1.2 per cent in a month. Rightmove's Miles Shipside, said: "New sellers can see the storm clouds overhead but seem to believe it is only raining on other people."

He warned: "Sellers who are hanging on to achieve last year's prices need to accept that the market has fallen and they will end up being punished by a lower price in the long run."

And hence the great standoff - I think this even applies to NI. I just hope the standoff doesn't last too long.

[spring]

Totally agree with you. If you look on Nestoria the asking prices in Northern Ireland have mainly increased this month. I think they are hoping for a miracle but they may wait in vain.

These "games" were always going to happen....no-one wants to think that their house could drop in price massively.

I've always thought that there will be a lot of twists and turns, games, false prophets etc happen before the market crashes.

This could be the bit on the titanic when it hits the ice berg. The engineer has stated that the boat will sink in theory. But people don't believe it. After all, the boat is unsinkable (prices only ever go up). Everything seems normal. There's just a lot less noise, an uneasy quietness. (nobody buying) People casually walk towards the life boats (drop the price by 10,000). Some refuse to even contemplate getting on lifeboats (sellers who won't drop prices). The band play music on deck to keep everyone calm (EAs talk about prices leveling out or dropping 5% at most). And so this continues for an hour and a half (a year and a half).

Then the lights go out and people below deck start to become knee high in water(reposessions, forced sales)...and things start happening a lot faster....

Sorry, got carried away there...

PS no disrespect to the folk who perished on the Titanic intended.

[Traktion]

Good analogy, Spring! I think you are about right there!

[yadayada]

From the above article on inside track:

Wrong - just because they were poor doesnt mean they weren't greedy. Their greed blinded their common sense, which is why they were stupid enough to give Inside Track thousands.

Tend to agree - but the tax system favours those buying to let over those buying to live in. All expenses including interest can be written off against tax if you buy to let. I know someone owns several rented houses but lives in a rented flat - keeps the costs down and the income up (or did, anyway).

[subby]

These "games" were always going to happen....no-one wants to think that their house could drop in price massively.

I've always thought that there will be a lot of twists and turns, games, false prophets etc happen before the market crashes.

This could be the bit on the titanic when it hits the ice berg. The engineer has stated that the boat will sink in theory. But people don't believe it. After all, the boat is unsinkable (prices only ever go up). Everything seems normal. There's just a lot less noise, an uneasy quietness. (nobody buying) People casually walk towards the life boats (drop the price by 10,000). Some refuse to even contemplate getting on lifeboats (sellers who won't drop prices). The band play music on deck to keep everyone calm (EAs talk about prices leveling out or dropping 5% at most). And so this continues for an hour and a half (a year and a half).

Then the lights go out and people below deck start to become knee high in water(reposessions, forced sales)...and things start happening a lot faster....

Sorry, got carried away there...

PS no disrespect to the folk who perished on the Titanic intended.

excellent

[WasSeller (ex-WouldBe)]

These "games" were always going to happen....no-one wants to think that their house could drop in price massively.

I've always thought that there will be a lot of twists and turns, games, false prophets etc happen before the market crashes.

This could be the bit on the titanic when it hits the ice berg. The engineer has stated that the boat will sink in theory. But people don't believe it. After all, the boat is unsinkable (prices only ever go up). Everything seems normal. There's just a lot less noise, an uneasy quietness. (nobody buying) People casually walk towards the life boats (drop the price by 10,000). Some refuse to even contemplate getting on lifeboats (sellers who won't drop prices). The band play music on deck to keep everyone calm (EAs talk about prices leveling out or dropping 5% at most). And so this continues for an hour and a half (a year and a half).

Then the lights go out and people below deck start to become knee high in water(reposessions, forced sales)...and things start happening a lot faster....

Sorry, got carried away there...

PS no disrespect to the folk who perished on the Titanic intended.

We're going to need a bigger boat...

I'm in mine, by the way (almost 25% drop), anyone want to throw me a feckin life jacket....?

Ah jaysus, such times.

[spring]

Daily Mail - Credit-crunch-Its-going-to-lot-worse-warns-investment-guru-George-Soros

"

In the case of the UK we've had a housing bubble that in terms of price increases has been greater than in the United States.

"That's also now going to be corrected - it is taking longer than in the States because you haven't had over-building like in America."

Mr Soros said property prices relative to people's income were higher in Britain than "anywhere else in the world".

[HPCwhen?]

Following on now on Bloomberg UK housebuilders paying off staff. While I am not happy to see people becoming unemployed it will have a knock on effect as migrant workers head home and will affect the housing market over here. Where will the Titanic quarter and other apartments end up now?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...74&refer=uk

This is bad news for our economy which has become dangerously over-reliant on construction. Titanic Quarter must be seriously affected by this - how can it not be? The outlook for apartment development in Belfast must be very grim. BTW I don't see much happening at the 'obel' site - work seems to have ground to a complete hault! I wonder why?

[Traktion]

This is bad news for our economy which has become dangerously over-reliant on construction. Titanic Quarter must be seriously affected by this - how can it not be? The outlook for apartment development in Belfast must be very grim. BTW I don't see much happening at the 'obel' site - work seems to have ground to a complete hault! I wonder why?

Yes, it is a worry. Let's hope the developers got the land cheap, years ago and they can afford to build and sell buildings on it for a reasonable price. If they bought the land late, when it was expensive, then they may be in trouble. For their and Belfast's sake, I hope it's the former.

I still find it amazing how such industry can turn to dust in just 30 years since the second giant crane went up. It's saddening and barely believable. From constructing world leading ships, sold to others to swapping a few bricks and some mortar between us. It's a sad state of affairs.

[spring]

This is bad news for our economy which has become dangerously over-reliant on construction. Titanic Quarter must be seriously affected by this - how can it not be? The outlook for apartment development in Belfast must be very grim. BTW I don't see much happening at the 'obel' site - work seems to have ground to a complete hault! I wonder why?

The government should abolish the housing sales tax, known as stamp duty, for some first-time buyers or those limited to small deposits, he said.

Maybe, but that's the least of the FTBs barriers to entry.

The problem on a 175k house is not the £1750 stamp duty, it's the bl00dy 175k!

The developer should lower the price of the houses by 40% said Spring!!!

[subby]

Maybe, but that's the least of the FTBs barriers to entry.

The problem on a 175k house is not the £1750 stamp duty, it's the bl00dy 175k!

The developer should lower the price of the houses by 40% said Spring!!!

amen

[Traktion]

What gets me, is some of the developers must be making a mint on anything they sell now or sold last year.

As I said on another thread recently, there are some new houses on my estate up for 225k, where as the same houses were 150k a couple of years ago. They're all on the same chunk of land and I assume they were making a decent profit at 150k too.

I'm sure there are examples where the land was bought late and the selling costs may need to be relatively high. Equally, there may be many developers who could afford to slash prices and, IMO, they should stop winging and get slashing! I suspect the only reason they won't/can't is because buyers from last year will see how much they've been ripped off and cause a fuss in the press!

[spring]

can't believe no-one here is talking about 2days big UK news that house price falls are accelerating.

C4 news is asking is this the day that the wheels fell off the property rollercoaster.

Uk prices dropped by 2.5% in may according to the n'wide

c4 news

Edited May 29, 2008 by spring

[Traktion]

can't believe no-one here is talking about 2days big UK news that house price falls are accelerating.

C4 news is asking is this the day that the wheels fell off the property rollercoaster.

Uk prices dropped by 2.5% in may according to the n'wide

c4 news

There is a thread on the main forum (maaaany pages long) about it, so maybe people haven't posted a thread here? It is great news for us HPCers either way though!

I did see the C4 news too and the roller coast and talk of "crash" was great. I think the sheeple have turned!