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[roblpm]

savetheclaypigeon welcome aboard!!

One more convert!! When we convert the other 448,624 (2001 census) to our way of thinking all will be fine!!

I agree with you that "the level of delusion in Edinburgh seems to be very, very deep." but prices are definitely less than they were a year ago which is a start. Also with transaction volumes at 400 a month the Estate Agents/Solicitors are either going to have to get people to drop their prices or be out of a job.

The Single Survey that is coming in later this year and the fact that prices are dropping is just about putting paid to the offers over system.

So keep calm!! (Thats what I keep saying to my wife who wants to buy!!)

[roblpm]

A slight change of tack round my way from ESPC "Braids":

18 Kedslie Road, The Braids

Braids, EH16 6NT Fixed Price £309,950 PRICE REDUCED BY £50K FOR QUICK SALE. PART EXCHANGE CONSIDERED

6 Braid Mount View

Braids, EH10 6JL Fixed Price £575,000 PRICE REDUCED BY £75K FOR QUICK SALE. PART EXCHANGE CONSIDERED.

These prices are still pretty high but shows that people are getting the idea!! The next ones will come on lower and then the cuts will take them to a more reasonable level!

[Muswell Hillbilly]

Surprised to see nobody has yet posted this article from today’s Evening News:

Council unveils plan to help homebuyers to beat credit crunch

ccc, get your commenting boots on! Oops, I see you already had commented, at 12:54 – quick off the mark as usual!

[Edited to add the last sentence]

Edited October 16, 2008 by Muswell Hillbilly

[ccc]

Surprised to see nobody has yet posted this article from today’s Evening News:

Council unveils plan to help homebuyers to beat credit crunch

ccc, get your commenting boots on! Oops, I see you already had commented, at 12:54 – quick off the mark as usual!

[Edited to add the last sentence]

I am always there !! Also another one about a glut of property to rent inthe City. Apparently due to the 'I'll just rent it out instead' phenomenon.....

Rentals glut

If the Agents are saying how oversupplied it is already - they must be expecting some serious drops in rents soon.

Prices down. Rents down. Serious recession on the way. Yet many pundits and most of the general public think we will see the market 'bounce back' in 2010.

The question is WHY !!??

In the middle of the most serious recession in decades property prices will start rising ? Only if we get massive inflationis that possible. Even then their real worth will be dropping like a stone.

IMO once this recession is CLEARLY over is the only time prices will start to rise again.

I find the simple logic to be the best.

Edited October 16, 2008 by ccc

[geneer]

I am always there !! Also another one about a glut of property to rent inthe City. Apparently due to the 'I'll just rent it out instead' phenomenon.....

Rentals glut

If the Agents are saying how oversupplied it is already - they must be expecting some serious drops in rents soon.

Prices down. Rents down. Serious recession on the way. Yet many pundits and most of the general public think we will see the market 'bounce back' in 2010.

The question is WHY !!??

In the middle of the most serious recession in decades property prices will start rising ? Only if we get massive inflationis that possible. Even then their real worth will be dropping like a stone.

IMO once this recession is CLEARLY over is the only time prices will start to rise again.

I find the simple logic to be the best.

£100M buys what, 400 flats?

[Muswell Hillbilly]

Hello savetheclaypigeon, and welcome to this forum.

Anyway, it's just nice to know there are other people, there commitment to the "Reekie Must Crash" cause notwithstanding, that are in the same boat. Especially the punter calling himself the "Muswell Hillbilly"

When he talks about the flats in Marchmont, an area I've coveted since I was a scumbag student, he's reaching the same conclusions as me, only he has the benefit of research, figures and personal viewings to back it up, as opposed to my half-arsed perusing of the ESPC website.

Regardless, I still want to give him a digital "high-five" for all his good work.

Thanks very much for the kind words. I don’t post much on HPC – see my post count – so I’m glad that now I am posting stuff in this subforum it’s actually proving of interest to somebody other than myself!

I’m keeping up the detailed monitoring of Marchmont and Bruntsfield. It’s pretty easy, now that so few properties are either coming to the market or leaving it, and since the magnificent Property Bee started handling the ESPC website.

Don't get me wrong. I'd love a two bed flat to fall to the 150k mark. Who wouldn't? But when did the Scots last catch a break like that. We are a country weaned on disappointment. And all the talk of a housing price collapse bears the hallmarks of another "glorious failure", the likes of which this nation specialises in.

Taking off the bubble glasses, I can still see that 150K is still a hell of a lot of money, especially for a two-bedroom flat in a city where most people don’t have very high wages (and many of those who do, working for the part-nationalised banks, might be losing their jobs.)

Having already observed two-bed tenement flats in Marchmont and Bruntsfield selling for well over 300K as late as this spring, and now seeing them all stick on the market around the 250K FP mark, that’s a fall of at least 17%, and the crash has only just got going. The current financial crisis can only bring prices down much, much further. Whenever this bottoms out, I don’t see why two-bed flats shouldn’t cost 150K, and three-bedders maybe 200K – or whatever these amounts will equate to after two or three years of inflation. Anyway, time will tell.

I’ll post updates on Marchmont/Bruntsfield on this thread or the other one as and when there’s something worth posting.

For the moment, here is one nugget: admittedly it needs some work, and it’s on the main road in the heart of Studentsville, but it’s still a flat with two double bedrooms, kitchen/diner and boxroom in Marchmont for £199,950.

[ccc]

£100M buys what, 400 flats?

£100M buys 1000 flats at 100k. This idea by the council is a joke.

Scotsman

See the comments by the ESPC chump. You can see what I think of it in my comment.

Anyway if the council plan does happen, and I doubt it, they are simply going to increase the amount of council housing available. That will mean many of those currently in private rental property will have somewhere else to go.

I don't exactly see how any of this is going to 'help the market'.

The market does not need help. It needs to die and be reborn at a sensible level.

[savetheclaypigeon]

Well, just call me Gandhi because I'm flip-flopping!

Yes, a complete reversal of my position after only two days. I should have been a politician!

After some border-line obsessive online research, I don't see how anyone can say this price crash isn't happening. I'm actually quite embaressed. Both by my previous ol' fashioned Scottish pessimism and by how ignorant I was (and indeed still am) about the financial world.

I remember hearing all the talk about 125% mortgages and having no strong feelings at all. I should have been screaming "WHAT THE HELL ARE WE DOING".

Even the most bullish of (sensible) experts are predicting a 30% drop on the average 2007 price. And we all know (get me with my new badass smarts) that the market always overshoots, be it at the top or the bottom end, so who knows where we are going to end up.

There is a sensible, if simplistic, argument that for rental yields to return to pre-boom levels, a 50% reduction in prices is required. That's not pie in the sky. No-one worth listening to will tell you categorically that won't happen across the board. Amazing!

Admittedly, the elders on this forum must be rolling their eyes and thinking "welcome to the club son, we've been going for a while now, we've even had jackets made..."

But this is a revelation for me. I'm 27 and (was) looking to be a FTB. Ever since I've even bothered to look at property prices, Edinburgh has been astronomical. I didn't know any different. I've reached financial maturity through the boom times. And thank Christ I didn't buy 6 months ago!

That's why it makes me so angry. I'm a chump who's done a couple of evenings of reading and it seems I already know more than every property guru in the country. For the ESPC to infer that first time buyers should buy a new build in this climate is shameful. They won't be able to give the damn things away soon without a 70% reduction. And this is true for new builds in every city centre up and down the land. So why don't they know that?

But of course they do know that. They saw the iceberg a long time ago. It's strange. One of my first thoughts as I began to realise the full extent of the situation was that a lot of estate agents, and the people they employ, would be losing their jobs. But it's tough to find sympathy for an industry that is so shamelessly self-serving, even until the bitter end.

As a prospective FTB, they wouldn't have cared much about me 12 months ago.

Karmas a bitch, aint it....

[ccc]

I'm a chump who's done a couple of evenings of reading and it seems I already know more than every property guru in the country.

That just about sums it up.

[geed]

I totally agree with your ideas on the deep rooted insanity in this City. However it is changing day by day. More and more people area greeign with what I say on these matters. A year ago they all thought I was mental !!

Prices are already falling. Everyone knows that. I have said all along that is the one thing that will change everything. People have so far not thought it was possible to lose ANY money on a property in Edinburgh. Now they know they can. They will know friends who have. They will see houses in their streets that have been up for sale for over a year. People are waking up, slowly but surely.

We are a country weaned on disappointment. However you seem to foget us lot are in the minority. If we are looking for the usual Scottish 'Glorious failure' than we can expect it to hit the majority rather than the minority.

As for a 2 bed flat falling to 150k - You talking about Morningside area I take it ?

I have been watching Edinburgh for about 2 years now in detail. My simple guestimate of where prices will go, across the board.

Take what the house was worth in Spring 2007 - Then half it.

Simple and I am 90% sure we will see this within 2-3 years.

Two years ago I would have put my confidence in this at about 10%. Now I am thinking about 90%.

Everything that has happened in the last years simply strengthens this prediction.

I see nothing that can stop it.

Sit, back save money, keep your job if you can - then buy a nice reasonable priced house in 2010-2012.

Simple.

I agree ccc and welcome 'savetheclaypigeon'. As a result of your new HPC membership, consider yourself ahead of the public perception curve by about 12 months .

Back to your post ccc "Prices are already falling. Everyone knows that." Yes prices are in the majority falling, falling almost as hard as Wales and England and falling right in the middle of the traditionally busy market period as predicited here on this very site - funny that. I think deep in their hearts everyone knows property is falling, but it is only those who are active in the market that openly admit this. Most RE's, prospective buyers and most prospective sellers (by virtue of the fact that prices have fallen) know values are sliding. Those that also seek their information from sources other than the Johnston press and ESPC (like us lot) also will openly admit and advise others of falling prices.

But casual observers still think Edinburgh is built in some sort of isolation sphere. Casual observers skim the surface for information and form an opinion. To casual observers, the housing market hasn't yet crashed and is merely stagnating. To casual observers, the housing market will pick up in a few months once this silly banky thingo is all sorted.

It is a perfect illustration of how lazy we really are as a society. We want to be fed information instead foraging for it. It is only because the mainstream English and Welsh (NI?) media have latched onto the blatently obvious housing crash that the less well informed casual observers down there now understand. Scotland is still fed the usual rhetoric that it is different from down south therefore can operate in another dimension (I have an image of Alex Salmonds fat head spouting verbal patriotic excrement). It is xenaphobic and blo0dy dangerous.

I was discussing the general state of affairs of the economy the other day wth a work colleague suggesting he (a small business operator) should really be 'planning for the worst and be pleasantly surprised'. He retorted, "I think we will be alright here, the Edinburgh house market hasn't crashed like down in England". I interupted him and told him that Edinburgh city centre was down 11% year on year. Fair play to him he sat back and listened to all the facts and figures I was quoting and really didn't say much thereafter. It just goes to show though, he hadn't a clue what he was talking about yet he still had firm opinions, dangerous again.

Last night having a meal with some folk that we had just been introduced to and this lady starts spouting on about property now being affordable again! I started pointing out the fundamentals and suggested that maybe she thought it affordabale because perhaps she had a large deposit etc.... but that she needs to look at her salary, her deposit, the long term salary to mortgage ratio and mortgage repayments to rent and the loss of equity over the next few years. Again the conversation was over quickly as when confronted with fact, sentiment dies quickly.

It must be said that in both cases, the individuals were under 35 so therefore had no idea what a downturn was, what a recession feels like and how long a housing crash takes to play out. They were all teenagers the last time round.

I am just apprehensive thats all as many people still clearly don't get it up here. Currently banks are forcing people not to buy by limiting credit - finally!. We should take solace though as I beleive the banks have had rather a shock. As a result they have gone all coy on lending and borrowing and will remain extremely reluctant to issue loans on falling assets - even with lower LTV deals. This will hopefully take the buying decision firmly out of the ill-informed hands of those who really should start doing a little more foraging!

[geed]

Hello savetheclaypigeon, and welcome to this forum.

Thanks very much for the kind words. I don’t post much on HPC – see my post count – so I’m glad that now I am posting stuff in this subforum it’s actually proving of interest to somebody other than myself!

I’m keeping up the detailed monitoring of Marchmont and Bruntsfield. It’s pretty easy, now that so few properties are either coming to the market or leaving it, and since the magnificent Property Bee started handling the ESPC website.

Taking off the bubble glasses, I can still see that 150K is still a hell of a lot of money, especially for a two-bedroom flat in a city where most people don’t have very high wages (and many of those who do, working for the part-nationalised banks, might be losing their jobs.)

Having already observed two-bed tenement flats in Marchmont and Bruntsfield selling for well over 300K as late as this spring, and now seeing them all stick on the market around the 250K FP mark, that’s a fall of at least 17%, and the crash has only just got going. The current financial crisis can only bring prices down much, much further. Whenever this bottoms out, I don’t see why two-bed flats shouldn’t cost 150K, and three-bedders maybe 200K – or whatever these amounts will equate to after two or three years of inflation. Anyway, time will tell.

I’ll post updates on Marchmont/Bruntsfield on this thread or the other one as and when there’s something worth posting.

For the moment, here is one nugget: admittedly it needs some work, and it’s on the main road in the heart of Studentsville, but it’s still a flat with two double bedrooms, kitchen/diner and boxroom in Marchmont for £199,950.

"so I’m glad that now I am posting stuff in this subforum it’s actually proving of interest to somebody other than myself!"

Don't be so glum!! I think I speak for everyone on here when I say that all contributors to this sub forum respect and value each others views and opinions.

The flat you have pointed out is truly reflective of the market firmly coming our way. That flat would have been snapped up easily for £250K just 6 months ago IMO, it would be perfect if it has a bay lounge oh and was £60k less ...patience.

I also have evidence of a 3 bed, i think double living room ground floor flat in marchmont facing the meadows going for £295K, this too would have gone for much more just 6 months ago, upwards of £350K plus. It hasnt gone through yet though.

You probably know it well anyway Muswell.

[geed]

Well, just call me Gandhi because I'm flip-flopping!

Yes, a complete reversal of my position after only two days. I should have been a politician!

After some border-line obsessive online research, I don't see how anyone can say this price crash isn't happening. I'm actually quite embaressed. Both by my previous ol' fashioned Scottish pessimism and by how ignorant I was (and indeed still am) about the financial world.

I remember hearing all the talk about 125% mortgages and having no strong feelings at all. I should have been screaming "WHAT THE HELL ARE WE DOING".

Even the most bullish of (sensible) experts are predicting a 30% drop on the average 2007 price. And we all know (get me with my new badass smarts) that the market always overshoots, be it at the top or the bottom end, so who knows where we are going to end up.

There is a sensible, if simplistic, argument that for rental yields to return to pre-boom levels, a 50% reduction in prices is required. That's not pie in the sky. No-one worth listening to will tell you categorically that won't happen across the board. Amazing!

Admittedly, the elders on this forum must be rolling their eyes and thinking "welcome to the club son, we've been going for a while now, we've even had jackets made..."

But this is a revelation for me. I'm 27 and (was) looking to be a FTB. Ever since I've even bothered to look at property prices, Edinburgh has been astronomical. I didn't know any different. I've reached financial maturity through the boom times. And thank Christ I didn't buy 6 months ago!

That's why it makes me so angry. I'm a chump who's done a couple of evenings of reading and it seems I already know more than every property guru in the country. For the ESPC to infer that first time buyers should buy a new build in this climate is shameful. They won't be able to give the damn things away soon without a 70% reduction. And this is true for new builds in every city centre up and down the land. So why don't they know that?

But of course they do know that. They saw the iceberg a long time ago. It's strange. One of my first thoughts as I began to realise the full extent of the situation was that a lot of estate agents, and the people they employ, would be losing their jobs. But it's tough to find sympathy for an industry that is so shamelessly self-serving, even until the bitter end.

As a prospective FTB, they wouldn't have cared much about me 12 months ago.

Karmas a bitch, aint it....

I had not read your post before I posted my ramble @ 02:21pm today. So a complete coincidence then that you are a shining example of how enlightening a bit of foraging can be. Nice!

[BessOfHardwick]

The modern development I rent in down Canonmills way had up to 30 'For sale' signs up in the summer. Only one or two shifted and back in April no-one would break the magic £200K barrier for a 2-bed flat. Now, however, the breakaway bottom has gone to £169K, although the highest asking price for 2-bedders is still a bizarre £230K and all the flats here have exactly the same footprint and layout. Go figure. However, the 'For sale' signs were accompanied by and then replaced by 'To Let' signs in August and I discovered Mr. 'I'll just rent it out until the market re-adjusts' across the hall put his up for rent a month ago and still no takers. It's identical to my flat and on for £75 pcm more than I pay! - greedy wossname - and I began renting at this price 2 years ago: my letting agency actually wrote to me this year to reassure me my rent wouldn't be going up. If the flat opposite actually rents out I will make sure the new tenants know how much I'm paying

Edited October 17, 2008 by BessOfHardwick

[Scunnered]

Here's an article by our friend DJ Alexander: Lenders must take stock of housing.

Whaddaya think?

Edited October 19, 2008 by Scunnered

[geneer]

Here's an article by our friend DJ Alexander: Lenders must take stock of housing.

Whaddaya think?

Well, if he writes for the scotsman, clearly he's trying to make up for being a bovine, thoughtless, VI f*cking shill.

[BessOfHardwick]

Here's an article by our friend DJ Alexander: Lenders must take stock of housing.

Whaddaya think?

He means: "I am in the sh1te because I used too much of my money to buy up houses people needed in a rising market when I thought I could make enough from the ransom money from poorer people to drown myself and my staff in Cristal and Beluga. Now the market is falling which is REALLY UNFAIR, I am going to let the nation know that it is the fault of a lot of GREEDY people like banks and politicians. I hope by using these righteous tones I will qualify to have my own tanking portfolio bought up by the council until such times as the trough is refilled and I can buy it back for less than I sold it - Gawd bless yer memory Mrs. Thatcher Ma'am - and ransom it to the good, honest hardworking army of punters who will be ready to get into debt again. I'm off to change my trousers but I'm here all week."

[Guest An Bearin Bui]

Here's an article by our friend DJ Alexander: Lenders must take stock of housing.

Whaddaya think?

If DJ Alexanders' vision of the rental market is in store for Edinburgh then God help us all. I wrote a comment to say as much under this article and to add that it would be more in David Alexander's line to look after his own shittily run business than to go lecturing the government about what to do or not to do in the rental market. I notice also he is still plugging this ridiculous idea of a 'market-driven rise in rents' in Edinburgh which we all know to be a lie.

To be fair, I would prefer to see a government-regulated, corporate-owned rental sector emerge out of this bust rather than the haphazard scenario we currently have where amateur investors or accidental landlords let out their flats through shysters like DJ Alexanders without real regulation or protection for tenants. This would be a rental market that is similar to countries like Germany where tenants have secure tenure, regulated rents and the right to modify the properties. If that is what Alexander is suggesting, then that would be great.

Unfortunately I think he is suggesting government-backed BTL instead with no added regulation or protection for tenants. He wants to see prices kept high by a government or corporate takeover of the property market. Honestly, shooting would be too good for that guy... slow torture would be better. Maybe brick him up in one of his BTL properties to slowly starve to death like the plague victims of Mary's Close. A nice Gothic Edinburgh death.... :angry:

[EdiLass]

Well it seems like a logical suggestions to me.

The bankers have been making money from people's need for housing through mortgage lending. They did this in a totally irresponsible manner and caused the bubble that just bust, and got themselves into a hole.

As a result no one is buying, so no more money to be made from mortgages, but people still need to live somewhere, so surely there must be a way for the bankers to exploit that. If they are lucky they won't need to buy up the houses people are trying to sell, they can just wait for people to default on their mortgages and become slumlords that way

[Scunnered]

If DJ Alexanders' vision of the rental market is in store for Edinburgh then God help us all. I wrote a comment to say as much under this article and to add that it would be more in David Alexander's line to look after his own shittily run business than to go lecturing the government about what to do or not to do in the rental market. I notice also he is still plugging this ridiculous idea of a 'market-driven rise in rents' in Edinburgh which we all know to be a lie.

It was a strange article. At first it sounded quite sensible; he might even have been quoting from HPC a few times in the "how did we get into this mess?" bit. However, when his proposal about the government buying up housing stock to let it out came up, it put the whole thing into a different light, especially in view of some of the things we've seen about him here in recent months. I suspect he's one of these people who'll tell you exactly what you want to hear just in order to get a chance to exploit you.

Unfortunately I think he is suggesting government-backed BTL instead with no added regulation or protection for tenants. He wants to see prices kept high by a government or corporate takeover of the property market. Honestly, shooting would be too good for that guy... slow torture would be better. Maybe brick him up in one of his BTL properties to slowly starve to death like the plague victims of Mary's Close. A nice Gothic Edinburgh death.... :angry:

Calm down! He's not worth it!

It's just great the way these guys get to have big articles published in the local press to protect their own interests. Maybe they're all sleeping with the editor or something. DJ seems to have been particularly busy recently: he turned up yesterday in the Evening News giving us his opinion on the HBoS takeover. His economic expertise seems to know no bounds. Of course, if the takeover goes ahead it could be bad news for local letting agents ...

[blobby o mr blobby]

Isn't DJ part of the Heritors group that where heavily financed by Hbos on a lot of their projects. Would he benefit from the deal not going through? and if he would how can he be trusted to write an objective article for a well known newspaper?

If anyone is considering putting an offer in for one of Heritors properties here is a great quote from one of DJ articles to back up your offer.

House prices will fall, almost certainly putting anyone who purchased a property in the last two years into negative equity.

Edited October 24, 2008 by blobby o mr blobby

[geed]

link to topic in main forum with link to Scot on Sun article

Lots of bears in the comments below the article.

[hitsy]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7694819.stm

Repossessions up 71%.

ITV news headlines- Jonathon Ross tells a bad joke. Priorities.

[geed]

Had someone around for dinner last night and they too suggested we should buy as it is a "good time to buy now as prices are lower"???

I usually take the time to put these deluded folk right, but chose to leave the room this time as now Mrs geed also gives a nice HPC speel. They have purchased in the last year though, a new build. I didn't want to point out that they had possibly lost 5 years worth of savings already and that I was angry that they suggested we should hurry and join the "lets wipe out all our hard earned savings in the greatest ever house price crash party!".

The vast majority of Edinburgh folk have a poor grasp of what is happening. Edinburgh was always going to crash in a lagging manner compared to the rest of the UK, we all predicted this. What will exacerbate this massively is the possibility of large job losses in both RBS and HBoS, companies that are intertwined within the Edinburgh community. The possibility itself will cause fear, the reality will be less emotive and will just hammer Edinburgh in many ways. The deluded attitudes of many in this city mean they are ill prepared.

This knock in confidence in Edinburgh will take years, possibly decades to reverse.

[Scunnered]

The vast majority of Edinburgh folk have a poor grasp of what is happening.

Take a look at this piece of lunacy from today's EN: Demand means property market will recover.

This is from William Frame of Braemore Property Management, who seems to be barking mad even by Edinburgh standards. The Scotsman/Evening News have regular articles by him whose common feature is that they're all spectacularly deluded. Here's today's effort.

ANYONE trying to sell property probably doesn't need reminding how tough it is out there.But while the situation doesn't make for good reading, it's important that we don't batten down the hatches completely and talk ourselves into a housing market crisis.

In fact, it's probably time we started to be optimistic.

The truth is, there is every reason to believe that the property market is poised to make a quick return to normal.

Think about it, in 2006 there were some 11,500 houses sold through the ESPC; in 2007 around 10,500 properties changed hands. Up to the end of August, there have been only 4500 houses sold through the ESPC in and around Edinburgh.

What that means is there is a tremendous pent-up demand brewing. The same thousands of people who moved home in the last two years can't have suddenly disappeared.

Single professionals look to buy, couples get married or start families; partners split up or elderly people look to downsize – and above all, people continue to move jobs. These are all human factors that have no bearing on what is happening in the property market.

All that's happened is that these potential buyers have put house buying on hold because of lack of confidence in the market.

That means that once the market takes a turn for the better, the champagne corks will explode.

Before too long, the market will bounce back to the place it was, before what I always believe should have been described as a banking crisis and not a housing crisis, happened.

Of course, the big question here is "when"?

I think we are getting very close. The US banks are starting to clean out their toxic debts, the mass shake-up in the UK banking sector is settling down and attractive mortgage rates have slowly been returning.

The ducks are all starting to point in the same direction – so let's, for once, start to ensure we don't shoot them down.

Edited October 30, 2008 by Scunnered

[ccc]

Wow. Simply staggering. There is not even any point in picking holes in it. It is just one entire big hole.