ianbeale Posted August 14, 2007 Author Share Posted August 14, 2007 Hi Ian, this is the Average UK one – it’s far less exciting then the other one. I decided to track them from last week as they don’t seem too far out of line. If that’s the case, although I don’t quite know that yet, then it should help with predictions. Interestingly, the difference between a rational prediction and the spread price gives another sentiment index. nice one a fair bit of work for you but very appreciated - i (and many others i hope) will be watching this like a hawk for reasuurance i am doing the right thing - to be fair i think the sep 08 one is the one worth tracking - should be a bit more volatile keep the faith ib Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crown Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 Hi Ian, this is the Average UK one – it’s far less exciting then the other one. I decided to track them from last week as they don’t seem too far out of line. If that’s the case, although I don’t quite know that yet, then it should help with predictions. Interestingly, the difference between a rational prediction and the spread price gives another sentiment index. good info spline. I have not bothered tracking the data for this year. I guess as my positions are all on sept 2008 then I have only been following those dates. At 191/195 UK and 316/320 the lowest it has been for a couple of weeks now. We only need one good -ve month data from Nationwide/Halifax or LR for a significant reduced position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crown Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 (edited) september 2008 contracts update Average UK now 185/193 Average GL 313.5/319 Had this message from Cantor today As a client of Spreadfair we would like to take this opportunity to notify you of a few changes to the way we will be operating the Housing Markets in the future. There has been terrific demand for the market and in response to requests from clients we would like to offer more products with longer dated expiries. In order to do this we need to adjust the way our commissions are charged. The charging has been changed to include the following; - There will be an annual commission charge on each market of one unit per year, deducted quarterly, on your average open position whether long or short. - A commission of 3-5% on net winnings on the market is applied at settlement, depending on your commission rate. If the house prices or interest rates move substantially from August 2007 levels* then Spreadfair may review commission charging. Spreadfair will use its reasonable endeavours to notify you promptly of any changes to commission rates. The additional charge of one unit per year will only come into effect on the 20th August 2007 and will apply to any bets opened after this date. These charges will not be applied retrospectively to positions you already hold. Edited August 17, 2007 by crown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crown Posted September 16, 2007 Share Posted September 16, 2007 Average GL now 305/310 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted September 16, 2007 Share Posted September 16, 2007 (edited) This is Greater London for Spreadfair Mar/08 and Jun/08 over the last six weeks or so – reacting down as expected on strong bearish news. Edited September 16, 2007 by spline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crown Posted September 17, 2007 Share Posted September 17, 2007 SEPTEMBER 2008 Average Greater London 302/209 Average UK 186/190.5 large drops over the last week not surprisingly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Market Observer Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 (edited) This is Greater London for Spreadfair Mar/08 and Jun/08 over the last six weeks or so – reacting down as expected on strong bearish news. Market seems to have picked up a bit over the last few days. May be the last selling opportunity before the big falls start happening!!! Edited September 23, 2007 by Market Observer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SqueezePlay Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 Can someone confirm if the following is right - it seems abit counter- intuitive Cantor gives you two options 1. Create a new bet or 2. Oppose an existing bet. (maximum stake is the amount dispayed) Thus by betting against the highest available buy bid dispayed you win the most if house prices fall (compared with the other available buy bids) Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianbeale Posted October 14, 2007 Author Share Posted October 14, 2007 28 jul 07 dec 07 199.3 mar 08 197.8 jun 08 195.2 sep 08 192.9 4 aug 07 dec 07 200.4 mar 08 198.2 jun 08 196.2 sep 08 195.2 14 oct 07 dec 08 198.3 mar 08 196.0 jun 08 193.3 sep 08 191.2 dec 08 189.0 in summary the latest update forecasts that the av uk hp will be about 8k lower than today in a year - yoy-4% (-7%real) since the last update (4/8) yoy hps have dropped 4k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Market Observer Posted October 16, 2007 Share Posted October 16, 2007 Can someone confirm if the following is right - it seems abit counter- intuitiveCantor gives you two options 1. Create a new bet or 2. Oppose an existing bet. (maximum stake is the amount dispayed) Thus by betting against the highest available buy bid dispayed you win the most if house prices fall (compared with the other available buy bids) Thanks Yes that's right. Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianbeale Posted October 20, 2007 Author Share Posted October 20, 2007 This is Greater London for Spreadfair Mar/08 and Jun/08 over the last six weeks or so – reacting down as expected on strong bearish news. spline please can you update this as it is the best forward looking indicator around IMHO. keep the faith Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted October 21, 2007 Share Posted October 21, 2007 (edited) splineplease can you update this as it is the best forward looking indicator around IMHO. Hi Ian, this is the Gtr London Halifax with the Cantor Spreadfair prices added from a day or so ago. As you can see, after indulging in a huge feast of bearish news (Rightmove down, RICS price balance, Northern Rock, then Halifax dip, RICS again, ignoring Rightmove up, then IMF) it's now pricing in a spectacular downturn with immediate effect. Edited October 21, 2007 by spline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crown Posted November 14, 2007 Share Posted November 14, 2007 Interesting that the UK house price market is stuck at 190/191.5 for the september contract, has not moved after the recent Halifax drop in house prices. I think this market is dead now that Cantor have changed the cost of trading. A shame as I would love to sell more at this price, but am unwilling to pay their new fees Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crown Posted January 16, 2008 Share Posted January 16, 2008 SEPTEMBER 2008Average Greater London 302/209 Average UK 186/190.5 large drops over the last week not surprisingly September 2008 Average Greater London 293/296 Average UK 187/189.5 Big falls on the Greater London Market Now betting pricing in a 5% fall to september for the UK market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomWalk Posted January 16, 2008 Share Posted January 16, 2008 September 2008Average Greater London 293/296 Average UK 187/189.5 Big falls on the Greater London Market Now betting pricing in a 5% fall to september for the UK market I keep an eye on this. The sell price has been as low as 179 in recent weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted January 16, 2008 Share Posted January 16, 2008 Why own a property if you are a bull?Spreadbetters start from a position of -2% and do not have the associated maintenance costs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crown Posted January 16, 2008 Share Posted January 16, 2008 Now showing Average Greater London 293/295 Average UK 187/189 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianbeale Posted January 16, 2008 Author Share Posted January 16, 2008 Now showingAverage Greater London 293/295 Average UK 187/189 i particularly like the end of 2010 fig which goes 170/172 about 25k of today or 40k in real terms!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Market Observer Posted June 25, 2008 Share Posted June 25, 2008 Well that one has certainly moved some since July 2007 now hasn't it!! I could have made some serious money there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lufc Posted June 25, 2008 Share Posted June 25, 2008 Holy Jaysus ... they're pricing in a 10% + fall between now and December 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crown Posted June 26, 2008 Share Posted June 26, 2008 I sold both the september 2008 UK and london markets back in may 2007. Standing at a £1000 profit at the moment. a 2% fall this month from Halifax is priced in at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted June 26, 2008 Share Posted June 26, 2008 I sold both the september 2008 UK and london markets back in may 2007. Standing at a £1000 profit at the moment.a 2% fall this month from Halifax is priced in at the moment Does that take into account your costs, which include a. Cost of money - having to put 15:1 deposit down b. Cost of annual charge c. Cost of commission for winnings I am half tempted to go long on Dec 2008 as I reckon it is oversold but the various commissions seem a bit steep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crown Posted June 26, 2008 Share Posted June 26, 2008 Does that take into account your costs, which includea. Cost of money - having to put 15:1 deposit down b. Cost of annual charge c. Cost of commission for winnings I am half tempted to go long on Dec 2008 as I reckon it is oversold but the various commissions seem a bit steep I did not factor cost of money - put down a £29 stake one year ago. Lost interest = £1 No annual charge Commission included but not charged if position closed before event Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted June 26, 2008 Share Posted June 26, 2008 I did not factor cost of money - put down a £29 stake one year ago. Lost interest = £1No annual charge Commission included but not charged if position closed before event Was this on Spreadfair? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crown Posted June 26, 2008 Share Posted June 26, 2008 Was this on Spreadfair? yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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