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Spread Betting On House Prices! Yoy Of -2% Priced In!

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though i say it myself - this is a great find!!!!

Check this out at as forward looking market indicator / place to have a punt - spread betting on houses prices!!!! looks like there is some serious money on there to be traded too

https://cantor.spreadfair.com/

from the site

What price will the Average UK House price be as determined by the Halifax Quarterly House Price Survey?

The market will be suspended and all orders cancelled on the first day after the contract month. (June 2008 will be suspended on the 1st July 2008)

The bets are based on the Halifax House Price Survey, Seasonally Adjusted, Quarter Averages as produced by HBOS.

The market is traded per £1000 and the settlement is rounded to one decimal point.

You think house prices in the UK will continue to rise. You buy £100 per point at 193.0. The result of the survey is the Average House in the UK is £195,705.

Your profit ((195.7 - 193.0) x 100) = £270

SBA rules apply.

by the way the market is priced in for average prices in a year of 5k lower than they are today yoy-2% - add that to your interset on your stash - great stuff

(london only index also available)

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Guest d23
though i say it myself - this is a great find!!!!

Check this out at as forward looking market indicator / place to have a punt - spread betting on houses prices!!!! looks like there is some serious money on there to be traded too

https://cantor.spreadfair.com/

from the site

What price will the Average UK House price be as determined by the Halifax Quarterly House Price Survey?

The market will be suspended and all orders cancelled on the first day after the contract month. (June 2008 will be suspended on the 1st July 2008)

The bets are based on the Halifax House Price Survey, Seasonally Adjusted, Quarter Averages as produced by HBOS.

The market is traded per £1000 and the settlement is rounded to one decimal point.

You think house prices in the UK will continue to rise. You buy £100 per point at 193.0. The result of the survey is the Average House in the UK is £195,705.

Your profit ((195.7 - 193.0) x 100) = £270

SBA rules apply.

by the way the market is priced in for average prices in a year of 5k lower than they are today yoy-2% - add that to your interset on your stash - great stuff

(london only index also available)

good, somewhere for people to put their money where their mouth is

is it possible to see how much has been bet so far?

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I look at stuff like this and think "I'd like a punt at spreadbetting" ...

Only I get there and think "Doh!"... it loses me

I'll have another look, see if I can work out my **** from my elbow.

I understand the concept of spreadbetting. Just under-confident at pressing the right buttons somewhere.

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good, somewhere for people to put their money where their mouth is

is it possible to see how much has been bet so far?

dont think so (not like betfair) but there is some serious cash up on that matching board

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I look at stuff like this and think "I'd like a punt at spreadbetting" ...

Only I get there and think "Doh!"... it loses me

I'll have another look, see if I can work out my **** from my elbow.

I understand the concept of spreadbetting. Just under-confident at pressing the right buttons somewhere.

set up an account and do a few test minimum stake bets until you get you confidence up - you can get your fingures burnt as i did in 97 when i backed the tories to do well in the election at £25 a seat - that was one long nite

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A lot depends on how far you trust the Halifax house price survey.

I haven't looked into this - maybe it's the Gold standard in house price measurement, I wouldn't know - but I'd certainly want to investigate it if I were considering betting on it.

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A lot depends on how far you trust the Halifax house price survey.

I haven't looked into this - maybe it's the Gold standard in house price measurement, I wouldn't know - but I'd certainly want to investigate it if I were considering betting on it.

I wont be betting on it ive got 250k of str stash doing that in the bank (bad bet so far) - but it is very reasuring that we will be going in the right direction - think of it as an inverted yeild curve for hps - if those year away figures start getting bigger then it would be a time to buy

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set up an account and do a few test minimum stake bets until you get you confidence up - you can get your fingures burnt as i did in 97 when i backed the tories to do well in the election at £25 a seat - that was one long nite

you poor *******....that's one more guy the tories f++ked over

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good, somewhere for people to put their money where their mouth is

Et tu, D23? Will you be matching the bets or just goading others?

..... there is some serious cash up on that matching board

D23 will match it, I'm sure.

He can make a fortune and set an example to us all at the same time.

A lot depends on how far you trust the Halifax house price survey.

I haven't looked into this - maybe it's the Gold standard in house price measurement, I wouldn't know - but I'd certainly want to investigate it if I were considering betting on it.

From A Guide to House Price Indices

The Halifax "typical" house has not been updated since 1983 and the property market has changed considerably over the past 20 years; this means the index is a bit outdated.

...

Because the data are based on mortgage approvals, rather than completions, sample errors are much more likely than with the Land Registry or ODPM indices.

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though i say it myself - this is a great find!!!!

Check this out at as forward looking market indicator / place to have a punt - spread betting on houses prices!!!! looks like there is some serious money on there to be traded too

https://cantor.spreadfair.com/

from the site

What price will the Average UK House price be as determined by the Halifax Quarterly House Price Survey?

The market will be suspended and all orders cancelled on the first day after the contract month. (June 2008 will be suspended on the 1st July 2008)

The bets are based on the Halifax House Price Survey, Seasonally Adjusted, Quarter Averages as produced by HBOS.

The market is traded per £1000 and the settlement is rounded to one decimal point.

You think house prices in the UK will continue to rise. You buy £100 per point at 193.0. The result of the survey is the Average House in the UK is £195,705.

Your profit ((195.7 - 193.0) x 100) = £270

SBA rules apply.

by the way the market is priced in for average prices in a year of 5k lower than they are today yoy-2% - add that to your interset on your stash - great stuff

(london only index also available)

not many poor bookies,They knew which way to edge thier odds.They are in to win.

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not many poor bookies,They knew which way to edge thier odds.They are in to win.

Agreed! It's not a one-way bet. Remember that a crafty political nudge could send house prices back up again (e.g. MIRAS reintroduction, stamp duty reform). Spread betting sounds like a fast way to lose a lot of money (unless you have inside knowledge).

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I look at stuff like this and think "I'd like a punt at spreadbetting" ...

Only I get there and think "Doh!"... it loses me

I'll have another look, see if I can work out my **** from my elbow.

I understand the concept of spreadbetting. Just under-confident at pressing the right buttons somewhere.

After your classic posts about living a life of frugality and poverty and only drinking water in curry houses and having the bill split to reflect your exact consumption etc etc and then you want to get involved in spreadbetting !!! Bloody hell.

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After your classic posts about living a life of frugality and poverty and only drinking water in curry houses and having the bill split to reflect your exact consumption etc etc and then you want to get involved in spreadbetting !!! Bloody hell.

Reasonable. I have spent most of this afternoon managing my betting position in the Tour de France, and using up a 'free bet' offer from Skybet. I am going to come out £40 up on the day, give or take a few quid depending on the result of the Arsenal match.

The other half of the day I have spent making spaghetti bolognese out of Tesco Value ingredients, and freezing it for work packed lunches.

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Reasonable. I have spent most of this afternoon managing my betting position in the Tour de France, and using up a 'free bet' offer from Skybet. I am going to come out £40 up on the day, give or take a few quid depending on the result of the Arsenal match.

The other half of the day I have spent making spaghetti bolognese out of Tesco Value ingredients, and freezing it for work packed lunches.

I assume that you are inviting readers to conclude that there is no inconsistency between spread betting and at the same time making some wholesome basic foodstuffs last a few days? Possibly you are correct. My first impression though was that if you were not spending most of an afternoon gambling then possibly you might afford better food for yourself. Each to their own.

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I assume that you are inviting readers to conclude that there is no inconsistency between spread betting and at the same time making some wholesome basic foodstuffs last a few days? Possibly you are correct. My first impression though was that if you were not spending most of an afternoon gambling then possibly you might afford better food for yourself. Each to their own.

My net profit for the past 12 months just tipped over £300. It's hardly a whole new career option for me, but every little helps and I take very few risks - betting either when I think there's a good reason I am likely to know better than the market, or when I'm offered a freebie that makes me likely, or guaranteed, to come out ahead even if the market is right, and only now and again for pure fun.

Spread betting is indeed riskier though, especially if you don't actively manage your position.

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My net profit for the past 12 months just tipped over £300. It's hardly a whole new career option for me, but every little helps and I take very few risks - betting either when I think there's a good reason I am likely to know better than the market, or when I'm offered a freebie that makes me likely, or guaranteed, to come out ahead even if the market is right, and only now and again for pure fun.

Spread betting is indeed riskier though, especially if you don't actively manage your position.

Do you work for Tesco? You mention their branded foods and then made the comment that every little helps.

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mid prices (between buy and sell) will come back here ion a monthly basis to track movements

dec 07 199.3

mar 08 197.8

jun 08 195.2

sep 08 192.9

What do these figures mean?

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What do these figures mean?

that the market says that in a years time will be about 8k less than they are today - factor in inflation and it is a real 6% drop

go to the cantor spreadfair site have a dig around in the fianacial bets bit and you will find the market - the figures are the mid point between buy and sell so are the true price - will see how thay change as look forward indicator to hpi

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Do you work for Tesco? You mention their branded foods and then made the comment that every little helps.

Ha. That would be amazing, but I don't. I not only don't, I waste money going to the Co-op because Tesco is a bus ride away. Lazy. Also went to Iceland this morning. I am a diverse shopper, though I wish we had a Sainsbury's anywhere near here...

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that the market says that in a years time will be about 8k less than they are today - factor in inflation and it is a real 6% drop

go to the cantor spreadfair site have a dig around in the fianacial bets bit and you will find the market - the figures are the mid point between buy and sell so are the true price - will see how thay change as look forward indicator to hpi

Thanks - will look

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Guest d23
Et tu, D23? Will you be matching the bets or just goading others?

D23 will match it, I'm sure.

He can make a fortune and set an example to us all at the same time.

From A Guide to House Price Indices

I won't be matching any bets thanks; imo you'd need rocks in your head to spend money gambling on the UK property market. imo someone would be better off investing that money somewhere else and quietly increasing their a deposit fund

If you want to talk about 'goading' I could mention the amount of times I've been called a bull / uber bull / spastic / mentally defective / gay:blink: (??!!) etc etc for stating that a correction is on it's way but that the LR won't go YoY negative until 2008 at the earliest. Hardly radical thinking but there are some hardliners here that think otherwise; many of whom would have got their fingers badly burnt had they got involved with spreadbetting on HPI over the last few years.

Attempting to make any definitive predictions on when the correction will hit and it's severity is pretty pointless imo; I gave up crystal ball gazing regarding UK HPI a good few years ago when logic flew out the window and prices continued going up despite everything telling me that a crash was imminent; the furthest I'll go now is to state that it can't continue as it has been for much longer and that a correction is on the horizon; the house of cards is looking shakier and shakier month by month. Much beyond that in terms of specifics and I think you might as well be looking at rabbits entrails or consulting a soothsayer; I prefer to look at what is happening at the moment and whilst I think things are looking better than they have for a looooong time I still don't think a stake has been driven through the heart of HPI just yet..

Trying to make any concrete predictions is pretty futile (as many here have found out), imho my time is better spent looking at ways of improving my position in time for the forthcoming downturn. tbh I don't come here looking for cast in stone predictions (just as well really;) ), I come here for an alternative view of events and as an antidote from mainstream media.

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I won't be matching any bets thanks; imo you'd need rocks in your head to spend money gambling on the UK property market.

Might be worth betting on it continuing to go up, if the odds are on a fall, and you have a big STR fund.

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Guest d23
Might be worth betting on it continuing to go up, if the odds are on a fall, and you have a big STR fund.

If you have a big STR fund then lucky you; you're already in a very good position and I'd imagine theres much better / less stressfull ways of hedging their position than spreadbetting on a questionable VI index.

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