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About SqueezePlay

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  1. How can we reject one of the pillars of the single market, namely FOM whilst remaining inside the single market ? That looks like having our cake and eating it. So, is your propsal that we tolerate FOM ? I agree that the WTO rules would be terrible. Is the question, what price are we prepared to pay to reduce immigration from the EU ? Clearly, there are some folk who would prioritise reducing immigration over trade. The tory manifesto states their intentions of leaving the single market and substantially reducing immigration. It would be good to understand how they intend to achieve both of these goals. They have been repeatedly asked what we should understand by their mantra of 'No deal is better than a bad deal'. And failed to give a clear answer. Back to having your cake and eating it. Thanks for your reply Squeeze
  2. Thanks to Futeroid who gave his definition of hardvand soft brexit and the direction to the Flexit website. Lots of good stuff there. No, i am not David Davies ! Just trying to work this stuff out in my head. There is a dearth of high quality info available but lots of opinons ! The tory manifesto had leaving the single market and the customs union. Marr this morning had Hammond and Keir Stammer agreing that we could not remain in the sinjle market but there was a difference with regard to the custom union. Hammond clearly out and Starmer up for negotition. The interesting thing with Hammond was his statement about a transition period. So, we leave all the EU institutions to reach a 'neither in or out' period with full assess to the single market which would mean FOM but we could negotiate trade agreement (without implementing them). At the end of this period, we would be fully out, put in place our new trade agreements and end FOM. Is this credible ? How long would it last for ? What are the pros and cons ? Cheeers Squeeze
  3. Ok. At more than 800 pages there is a massive amount of info in this thread so forgive me if this has all been discussed before but i am just getting into this brexit debate. There has been a lot of discussion about hard and soft brexit and i am trying to learn the difference. As far as i can i see, the eu consists of The single market, (four freedoms: movement of people, goods, trade and services ,intra-eu) The customs union (goods coming into the eu, inter-eu) and The european court (rules for above and more). The leave campaign did not explicitly mention which of these it wanted to quit. It did state it wanted the uk to regain control of immigration, laws and to negotiate trade deals. Thus implicity it wanted to leave them all. It would have been clearer if it had stated its goals explicity. This is, to my mind, why we have this debate about soft and hard brexit. Am i correct in thinking Soft brexit is a watering down the leaving of the eu ? So, we could join the european free trade area (efta) like Norway, which is not in the eu but inside the custom union and the single market. Norway follows eu laws but has no say in their making. Given the leave commitment to control immigration. How is this achieved and what to do with EU nationals already in the UK and UK nationals in the EU ? There will need to be transistion arrangements. If we create a points system then will that mean no more uk folks eligible to retire to Spain ? Full control of immigration must mean out of the single market and efta. Given the leave campaigns views I find it hard to square being inside the customs union with the result of the referendum. There has been some debate about this following the election. However, how do we manage being outside of the customs union without a hard border between Eire and Northern Ireland. Looking at a recent case of smuggling garlic into the eu via Norway. There would have to be border controls for goods entering and leaving the UK. In other words if we make it preferable for garlic importers to import to uk then the eu will impose a tariff on garlic entering the eu from the uk. There would be an advantage to the uk of having cheaper garlic but the disadvantage would be queues of lorries entering and leaving the uk. Operation Stack would be running permanently which would convert Kent into parking lot. Can the learned folk on hpc answer these questions please. Or point me to the earlier posts. Cheers Squeeze
  4. What ?!? - Tories under Boris Johnson having a manifesto which is pro-EU. And Labour having been kicked in the balls in the Northern towns saying 'we hear your pain - but vote for us and we will put you back into the EU'. No, neither party will want to undo the Referendum results but both will seek to play to their supporters whilst maneuvering to keep UKIP out. Remember at the last general election UKIP got stuffed and that is the most likely result next time as well - after all why vote for a single issue party when that issue has been resolved ?
  5. Thoughtful post. There is no chance of an early election. The conservatives are scared shitless even with the labour party in its present state.I give you some scenarios. Lib Dems offer another referendum Labour manifesto is Swiss model so trading but EU immigration policies Conservatives - hardest to guess - depends upon new leader but will be weary of UKIP. UKIP rapid exit SNP remain in EU 1. Result is hung parliament with conservatives overall majority. Who would they go into coalition with ? 2. Result is small conservative majority with remainer having critical role. 3. Result is large conservative majority but they cannot deliver on their promises. Progress in negotiations is glacial. They cannot agree when is the right time to enact article 50. businesses move away from the UK and the conservatives are out of power for 20 years. It also follows the longer the delay before the next election the more diverse the parties positions may be and the greater the likelihood that a non-leave party would be in power. Squeeze
  6. I posted in January '15 in the Yate/Chipping Sobdury topic about the housing market in Thornbury since the summer of 2014. I thought that Thornbury now deserves its own post. Quick update - I have been following houses in a £125K brackett within 1 mile of Thornbury using RightMove. A glut of properties hit the market in November and December, some at silly prices. Half of these had sold by January '15. A few more properties came on the market in January at equally crazy prices Inventory in Jan '15 was at an all time high and most properties have been on the market for more than a month (50% of new instructions since July that have sold have had offer accepted within the first month) - so further reductions may be on the cards. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The winter glut reduced with lots of sales in March. However, another wave of properties hit the market in March/April. However since then new instructions and sales have stalled. Inventory is now at an all time high, with the average selling time stretching out to more than 2 months. Many properties have price reductions. Across the board prices remain stubbornly high. Squeeze
  7. Market update....from North of Bristol....after being on the market for 6 months - time to change the agent, drop the price by £10,000 and change the photos. Lets be honest, if you can afford £465,000 you wouldn't fall for a trick like that.....would you....? http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-50792513.html Still, if they do sell it for £465,000 thats an increase of £40K since Jan 2014 Squeeze
  8. I have been following prices round the corner in Thornbury since the summer 2014 In the range I am looking new listings came to a massive halt in the August through to Occtober. A glut of properties hit the market in November and December, some at silly prices. Half of these are now sold. A few more properties came on the market in January at equally crazy prices (one has sold) But this week, three price reductions !!! Inventory is now relatively high and most properties have been on the market for more than a month (50% of new instructions since July that have sold have had offer accepted within the first month) - so further reductions may be on the cards. A few properties were removed unsold from the market at the end of last year - I am waiting for their return. DD
  9. North of Bristol there was a little flurry of activity in Spring. One brave investor is trying to make £50k for not much work....provided it sells of course... On the market since late July for £475K, brought in January for £425K http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47286353.html http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=43140575&sale=50759306&country=england Squeeze
  10. whooopss !! Over on ZeroHedge there is an article from Reuters claiming that London branches of the main two Cypriot banks were open last week and that no limits were placed on withdrawals from these branches. So ...the guess is...the smart (crooked ?) money has quietly slipped away. A week is a long time in politics and ample time for the well connected to look after themselves. Strange but I wonder why nobody noticed these branches before tonight ? Good old London. Squeeze
  11. This is an acedotal but I have just returned from a fortnight with the in-laws in Portugal, so fits in with this topic. We have been visiting them twice a year for the last 20 years. The differences I noticed this time. 1. Many more police on the streetsof Lisbon and also doing random stops on cars - according to the Sister-in-law checking on road tax and insurance details. 2. Twice I saw people rummaging through bins - the first guy looked homeless and hungry, the second was a well dressed woman with some dogs. 3. The young Portuguese all say they would leave the country if they could - uncertain where to go though (Brazil is not viewed positively My wives family are a long way from the bottom of the pile, but you can sense their frustration at the lack of opportunities. Squeeze
  12. Number of fatalities and casualties from fires in the UK has steadily decreased over the last few years (stats available from 1994 onwards) due to smoke detectors etc. Many fire-fighters spend much of their time increasing awareness about the risk of house fires, car crashes - using school visits etc. Question is...since the number of fires has fallen (risk decrease) - would you accept a reduction in the response to a fire (risk increase) Also note the number of fire fighters killed whilst on duty has been creeping up recently.... Squeeze
  13. The only folk I know who have cars on 59 and 10 number plates have received redundancy payments (private and public sector). These were, dual-income middle-class, middle-aged households, so a redundancy lump-sum of £20K represents an opportunity to "get out of the rat race". They can easily maintain their lifestyle once they cancel the childcare, the cleaner etc... the fact that the low interest rates makes their mortgage payments peanuts only adds to their feeling that they have done rather well out of this recession. Of course....there would be mighty pain if they were both to lose their jobs....but what are the chances of that .....now the recession is over ? Squeeze
  14. There is more to science than a PhD...
  15. If you are scientifically minded ..nuclear - if you prefer hot air ..alternative energy may have potential. Squeeze
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