Brighton Area

[Ladybirder]

Hi, this is my first post on here. I have been looking for property in the Brighton area (Hove actually) for a few months now. This morning, as usual, I went into Rightmove and did a "what's new in the last 24 hours" search and 102 properties came up. Couldn't believe my luck until I looked more closely and it seems that two agents, Sawyers (ex Tingleys) and Parsons Son & Basley have relaunched their whole portfolios again (40 and 30 properties respectively). So at least 78 of the 102 properties are all old stock but look as if they are new when pbee is of course picking them up as new. Are they doing this just to foil pbee? It's really annoying because PSB's stock is mostly early 2008 or before and still on at the original prices. :angry:

Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand. Homer Simpson

[stillwaiting]

'what are the average wages in Brighton anyway ?'

Back of fag packet calculations here. Average Uk wage is around £25,000, generally south coast wages are below national average, Eastbourne and Brighton average is around £20,000-£22,000, Hastings lower still. However Brighton prices are higher reflecting wealthy Londoners buying properties down here. The danger for the Brighton market is that this tap is much reduced during a recession meaning bigger housing booms and busts within the city.

[castrogtx]

3.5 x salary was the limit for what you could borrow in the 90s, at the interest rates we had in the 90s. It might become the limit again, but not until interest rates return to the levels we had in the 90s. That might happen if we eventually get high inflation.

If we do get high inflation (along with wage inflation) then previous house prices won't be much of a guideline either. The nominal prices might stay relatively high, though the actual value in terms of what you can afford will come down (as CastroGTX says). So I'd be careful about religiously waiting for house prices to hit certain nominal values.

The government will effectively print money by buying up toxic debt - it has to increase the money supply because it wants/needs the economy to have inflation (but not too much).

I think the recent strengthening of the pound might be more to do with bad news in euroland than doubts about whether the UK will print money. I think the UK will print money and I don't think it'll necessarily wait until interest rates are zero.

I suspect that some form of bank/plan regarding buying up toxic debt will emerge soon. However, british banks have approx £650bn (can't remember the actual figure)of 'assets' in hock at the BoE. The BoE relaxed what they would accept as collateral for these loans recently, so much of this is toxic. The BoE has loaned out (effectively created) to the full face value of these toxic assets and charged the banks punative interest rates.

When the Govt buys up this debt they will buy them at a punative price - either through a reverse auction or perhaps based on prices determined in the states' attempt to buy up their assets. I'm quite certain the real crud (or as far as the banks will admit to) is already in hock and it will be this that is then sold to the govt/taxpayer - £200bn is the much touted figure. Therefore the current loan will be transferred in to an actual trade. Indeed if the price determined is an effective 50p in the £, then the govt will buy up £400bn of already loaned toxic assets for £200bn. This would clearly not add to M0 - it could even reduce it - although I'm sure other bailout activity would soon account for this.

If this is the case this is not true printing - simply transfering credit (BoE loans) to cash. It's what banks do.

Indeed setting a price for these assets will further degrade the balance sheets of the banks - which could lead to credit contracting further.

Whatever happens with this plan banks will not return to the lending activity that lead them into insolvency and nationalisation.

[lorna1999]

Hi, this is my first post on here. I have been looking for property in the Brighton area (Hove actually) for a few months now. This morning, as usual, I went into Rightmove and did a "what's new in the last 24 hours" search and 102 properties came up. Couldn't believe my luck until I looked more closely and it seems that two agents, Sawyers (ex Tingleys) and Parsons Son & Basley have relaunched their whole portfolios again (40 and 30 properties respectively). So at least 78 of the 102 properties are all old stock but look as if they are new when pbee is of course picking them up as new. Are they doing this just to foil pbee? It's really annoying because PSB's stock is mostly early 2008 or before and still on at the original prices. :angry:

Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand. Homer Simpson

Ah, that explains why this came up AGAIN... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...&radius=0.0 For some reason, this poky house on a main road next to the viaduct isn't shifting

While I think of it, can anyone tell me why EA's are chaging their names at the mo - Tingleys to Sawyers, the ones who are now Mansell Mctaggart, (Patcham?) and there is another one too. Why go to the expense of changing signage etc, just when they need to rein in spending? I don't get it, unless it is partners bailing out maybe...?

[stillwaiting]

There are still some cracking over priced sheds on the market in Brighton. I wonder how much was spent here to do the place up only for it to collapse in value?

righmovehttp:

[stillwaiting]

whoops here it is

[5lab]

'what are the average wages in Brighton anyway ?'

Back of fag packet calculations here. Average Uk wage is around £25,000, generally south coast wages are below national average, Eastbourne and Brighton average is around £20,000-£22,000, Hastings lower still. However Brighton prices are higher reflecting wealthy Londoners buying properties down here. The danger for the Brighton market is that this tap is much reduced during a recession meaning bigger housing booms and busts within the city.

i'd have said south coast wages are higher than average. There's a fair number of minimum wage jobs, sure, but a lot of companies are paying towards the london end of the scale. You'd never find £8 per hour in a call centre in the north or in wales, which is what Amex pay - likewise I know several people who work in shops in the lanes, all on £6-7ph. I could be wrong though - do you have any evidence? Its true that brighton prices are higher due to london, however they're not that much higher than around - look to worthing and prices are within approx 10% lower than the equivilent here - and there's not many that'd commute from there to the big smoke

regarding btl in hannover - I don't think its as common as round the bear road area, due to simple maths. Rooms for students rent out at between £75 and £85 per week, if they're on pretty much any street off lewes road. Hannover doesn't fetch much of a rental premium over the bear road area - however they're often smaller - most are 2 beds with an extension - whereas the houses near bear road have always been 3 beds - which means the cunning btlers change the downstairs 2nd reception into a bedroom, and quite often the loft. thus 5 beds renting @ £75 per week for around £250k, vs 3 beds renting @ £85 per week for £350k in hannover.

Edited January 18, 2009 by 5lab

[LiveAndLetBuy]

regarding btl in hannover - I don't think its as common as round the bear road area, due to simple maths. Rooms for students rent out at between £75 and £85 per week, if they're on pretty much any street off lewes road. Hannover doesn't fetch much of a rental premium over the bear road area - however they're often smaller - most are 2 beds with an extension - whereas the houses near bear road have always been 3 beds - which means the cunning btlers change the downstairs 2nd reception into a bedroom, and quite often the loft. thus 5 beds renting @ £75 per week for around £250k, vs 3 beds renting @ £85 per week for £350k in hannover.

I agree. Back in the 90s there were quite a few student houses in Hanover, but it became unprofitable when house prices shot up. The area between Coombe Road and Elm Grove is full of 4 bed student houses, Hanover has more ex-student houses. An EA once told me he could follow the demographic: he'd see the same people renting in Bear/Coombre Road as students, then they'd buy a 2 bed house in Hanover and rent a room out to a mate, and then they'd buy a larger house around Hartington Road in order to start a family.

[i wanna house]

I agree. Back in the 90s there were quite a few student houses in Hanover, but it became unprofitable when house prices shot up. The area between Coombe Road and Elm Grove is full of 4 bed student houses, Hanover has more ex-student houses. An EA once told me he could follow the demographic: he'd see the same people renting in Bear/Coombre Road as students, then they'd buy a 2 bed house in Hanover and rent a room out to a mate, and then they'd buy a larger house around Hartington Road in order to start a family.

The area between Coombe Road and Elm Grove

is full of dead people isn't it ?

[stillwaiting]

'i'd have said south coast wages are higher than average'

Brighton business weblink

Bit of an old article (2005) but indicated a lower average wage

Argos 2007

This is from the Argos in 2007 which states that the average job in Brighton was advertised at £28,749. Interestingly my figures earlier were wrong, according to the statistics Eastbourne had the lowest wages on the south coast (high number of retired?) and Hastings the highest!(excluding high level of unemployed?). All towns well below national average.

[i wanna house]

'i'd have said south coast wages are higher than average'

Brighton business weblink

Bit of an old article (2005) but indicated a lower average wage

Argos 2007

This is from the Argos in 2007 which states that the average job in Brighton was advertised at £28,749. Interestingly my figures earlier were wrong, according to the statistics Eastbourne had the lowest wages on the south coast (high number of retired?) and Hastings the highest!(excluding high level of unemployed?). All towns well below national average.

one poster on the argus website said this.....

ah, brighton says...

11:36am Fri 21 Dec 07

national average wage of nearly 32K.

What a load of tosh (i assume that the Argus won't remove my post this time)

Just an excuse for a two bit website to get a bit of free publicity...

(does seem rather high for the average)

[lorna1999]

The area between Coombe Road and Elm Grove

is full of dead people isn't it ?

Whereas the area north of Coombe Road is full of brain-dead people....

[LiveAndLetBuy]

The area between Coombe Road and Elm Grove

is full of dead people isn't it ?

Yes, to continue the demographic I should have added that after living in between Coombe Road and Elm Grove they move to the cemetery up Bear Road. I'm not sure how much funerals cost these days, but it's probably one of the cheaper ways of finding accommodation in Brighton

[Samson]

This is my first post. I’ve been lurking for a while (thanks for all the info and opinions) but I’m torn between jumping back on to the ladder or waiting.

I sold up in Aug 08 after cutting my price to sell but was dismayed when the asking prices didn’t seem to be coming down with other vendors.

But now I’ve found a 3-bed house for 250 which I love in a nice area and the offer has been accepted.

Have studied the www.houseprices.com figures (it’s tricky trying to work it out when you don’t how many bedrooms etc each one has) but the agreed price does seem to match what was happening to the land registry prices in 2004 and 2005 on 3 similar properties nearby, although one sold for 238 in Sept 08 which seems a bit low (might have been a wreck?). Finding it difficult to work out what the peak was so can’t calculate the % drop from peak. I’m just worried I’m gonna be paying too much. The vendor slashed the price 50K, and it was one of those “offers in excess of” (I hate that). She wouldn’t take an offer, and will pull out if we try and reduce the price once the survey is in. It just feels a bit weird to pay the asking price in today’s market.

Anyways, I have a portable mortgage that I should try and keep (tracker, no collar) which runs out at the beginning Feb, so the pressure is on. And it might be tricky getting a new mortgage later in the year as work is thin on the ground at the mo.

The equity from selling my flat was sposed to help pay the rent, but now the interest rates have gone down, what’s the point.

I know I’m in a fantastic position, and should feel positive. More luck and timing than anything else – I first bought in 97. If I hadn’t bought then I would have been priced out in 2001, the year I first started predicting a crash (just 7 years too early). Stayed in the same flat for 11 years, shocked at the price rises and unable to afford to trade up. Seems a shame to jump back in now just as the crash seems to be gathering pace.

The only thing is, I think it is going to take ages for asking prices to fall properly, until next year even and I donno if I can wait that long. I think only an interest rate hike will cause a real crash (-40%) and I can’t see that happening for the next year or so. Everyone’s gonna sit tight. Might be worth taking opportunities like this if they pop up.

Am I crazy to be jumping back in now? If only crystal balls worked….

Ps. Sorry for such a long post, but I can’t talk about it to my friends because a) they don’t get the crash talk, and it would scare them s***less and I don’t wanna do that

[thirdwave]

This is my first post. I’ve been lurking for a while (thanks for all the info and opinions) but I’m torn between jumping back on to the ladder or waiting.

I sold up in Aug 08 after cutting my price to sell but was dismayed when the asking prices didn’t seem to be coming down with other vendors.

But now I’ve found a 3-bed house for 250 which I love in a nice area and the offer has been accepted.

Have studied the www.houseprices.com figures (it’s tricky trying to work it out when you don’t how many bedrooms etc each one has) but the agreed price does seem to match what was happening to the land registry prices in 2004 and 2005 on 3 similar properties nearby, although one sold for 238 in Sept 08 which seems a bit low (might have been a wreck?). Finding it difficult to work out what the peak was so can’t calculate the % drop from peak. I’m just worried I’m gonna be paying too much. The vendor slashed the price 50K, and it was one of those “offers in excess of” (I hate that). She wouldn’t take an offer, and will pull out if we try and reduce the price once the survey is in. It just feels a bit weird to pay the asking price in today’s market.

Anyways, I have a portable mortgage that I should try and keep (tracker, no collar) which runs out at the beginning Feb, so the pressure is on. And it might be tricky getting a new mortgage later in the year as work is thin on the ground at the mo.

The equity from selling my flat was sposed to help pay the rent, but now the interest rates have gone down, what’s the point.

I know I’m in a fantastic position, and should feel positive. More luck and timing than anything else – I first bought in 97. If I hadn’t bought then I would have been priced out in 2001, the year I first started predicting a crash (just 7 years too early). Stayed in the same flat for 11 years, shocked at the price rises and unable to afford to trade up. Seems a shame to jump back in now just as the crash seems to be gathering pace.

The only thing is, I think it is going to take ages for asking prices to fall properly, until next year even and I donno if I can wait that long. I think only an interest rate hike will cause a real crash (-40%) and I can’t see that happening for the next year or so. Everyone’s gonna sit tight. Might be worth taking opportunities like this if they pop up.

Am I crazy to be jumping back in now? If only crystal balls worked….

Ps. Sorry for such a long post, but I can’t talk about it to my friends because a) they don’t get the crash talk, and it would scare them s***less and I don’t wanna do that

Yes

[castrogtx]

This is my first post. I’ve been lurking for a while (thanks for all the info and opinions) but I’m torn between jumping back on to the ladder or waiting.

I sold up in Aug 08 after cutting my price to sell but was dismayed when the asking prices didn’t seem to be coming down with other vendors.

But now I’ve found a 3-bed house for 250 which I love in a nice area and the offer has been accepted.

Have studied the www.houseprices.com figures (it’s tricky trying to work it out when you don’t how many bedrooms etc each one has) but the agreed price does seem to match what was happening to the land registry prices in 2004 and 2005 on 3 similar properties nearby, although one sold for 238 in Sept 08 which seems a bit low (might have been a wreck?). Finding it difficult to work out what the peak was so can’t calculate the % drop from peak. I’m just worried I’m gonna be paying too much. The vendor slashed the price 50K, and it was one of those “offers in excess of” (I hate that). She wouldn’t take an offer, and will pull out if we try and reduce the price once the survey is in. It just feels a bit weird to pay the asking price in today’s market.

Anyways, I have a portable mortgage that I should try and keep (tracker, no collar) which runs out at the beginning Feb, so the pressure is on. And it might be tricky getting a new mortgage later in the year as work is thin on the ground at the mo.

The equity from selling my flat was sposed to help pay the rent, but now the interest rates have gone down, what’s the point.

I know I’m in a fantastic position, and should feel positive. More luck and timing than anything else – I first bought in 97. If I hadn’t bought then I would have been priced out in 2001, the year I first started predicting a crash (just 7 years too early). Stayed in the same flat for 11 years, shocked at the price rises and unable to afford to trade up. Seems a shame to jump back in now just as the crash seems to be gathering pace.

The only thing is, I think it is going to take ages for asking prices to fall properly, until next year even and I donno if I can wait that long. I think only an interest rate hike will cause a real crash (-40%) and I can’t see that happening for the next year or so. Everyone’s gonna sit tight. Might be worth taking opportunities like this if they pop up.

Am I crazy to be jumping back in now? If only crystal balls worked….

Ps. Sorry for such a long post, but I can’t talk about it to my friends because a) they don’t get the crash talk, and it would scare them s***less and I don’t wanna do that

Ring them back and say you can only get a mortgage for £220k - if they accept you will only be paying 40k over what she will have to accept in a year. If she says no, buy it off her in a year for £180k - saving yourself £70k, quite possibly the best years work you've never done.

As you say work is in short supply - this is true for sellers and buyers - there is only one way for prices to go.

Good luck.

[lorna1999]

Samson, my instinct is general is don't buy now, prices may well have a way to fall. From what you describe of the house you are interested in, it does sound like you would be paying well over the odds if you bought now. A year down the line you would still be a cash buyer, and renting is getting cheaper now if you have the bottle to negotiate. Your mortage might not be as good, but it would be for less surely?

My only other thought is where (roughly) is the house you are looking at, as there are areas that I think will hold their value better than others. I suspect that a house going for about 250K probably isn't in one of them though.

I doubt you will find anyone on here advocating that you buy now (except someone called Sibley), although if you go over to MSE forums you might get a different demographic and a different answer...

[LiveAndLetBuy]

...

Anyways, I have a portable mortgage that I should try and keep (tracker, no collar) which runs out at the beginning Feb, so the pressure is on. And it might be tricky getting a new mortgage later in the year as work is thin on the ground at the mo.

...

Are you sure it's your mortgage that runs out and not your discounted tracker period?

Normally the mortgage term is for 25 years and it should be portable throughout that term. If it's just your discounted tracker period that runs out you'll be placed onto their SVR, which may be crap, but you don't have to apply for a new mortgage - you could stay on their SVR for the time being and then reapply for a new mortgage later on. Indeed you might find better deals later on in the year.

[LiveAndLetBuy]

The only thing is, I think it is going to take ages for asking prices to fall properly, until next year even and I donno if I can wait that long. I think only an interest rate hike will cause a real crash (-40%) and I can’t see that happening for the next year or so. Everyone’s gonna sit tight. Might be worth taking opportunities like this if they pop up.

Am I crazy to be jumping back in now? If only crystal balls worked….

If you really like the property but want to hedge against a huge property crash, then you could try to buy it while also keeping some cash aside. If there is a huge crash you can then use that money to buy a cheap property as a BTL. The downside is that if you end up in negative equity on the property you want to buy now, you might have problems getting the BTL mortgage for the other property, you'd have to check this out.

(I know I'll probably get banned from this forum for suggesting BTL, but I'm sure there are quite a few on here hoping that a huge crash will give them the chance to build up a significant BTL portfolio.)

[tigsrenting]

(I know I'll probably get banned from this forum for suggesting BTL, but I'm sure there are quite a few on here hoping that a huge crash will give them the chance to build up a significant BTL portfolio.)

I strongly disagree. I think many on here are only interested in buying a home at a sensible price, you know that old thing value for money.

Not a two up two down for 250K - 300K today when it only cost 50K ten years back.

As for BTL, awful people should be put down.

[5lab]

thanks for the brighton wages lower evidence - certainly news to me.. however i'd not take researched based on 'jobs advertised in the area' as too rigorous evidence (the other link seemed good though).

I think the age of property being cheaper to buy than rent is gone now that btl exists. even at the peak of lending, banks were only giving ~75% on btl loans, so will the hit be that big? on the big blocks of new build properties, yes, but on normal properties in towns I think it'll be the landlords themselves taking almost all the pain, with the banks nicely insulated - unless something else (legislation perhaps) kicks in to make it less attractive. BTL, or rather rental properties in general do serve a purpose, but the number of them in recent years has been too high.

would be good to know more details on the house for 250 before anyone can suggest if its a good buy or not.

[LiveAndLetBuy]

(I know I'll probably get banned from this forum for suggesting BTL, but I'm sure there are quite a few on here hoping that a huge crash will give them the chance to build up a significant BTL portfolio.)

I strongly disagree. I think many on here are only interested in buying a home at a sensible price, you know that old thing value for money.

Not a two up two down for 250K - 300K today when it only cost 50K ten years back.

As for BTL, awful people should be put down.

Everybody on here is interested in buying a home at a reasonable price. I just suspect some are also interested in buying several more homes at reasonable prices, given half a chance. There are also a whole load of STRs on this forum who already had a home that they had bought at a sensible price, but decided to sell it somewhere near the peak in order to pile back in when prices are lower. Their interest lies in making a quick buck as much as any other speculator and, when the time comes, they'll also price out the FTBers.

As for BTL, I expect some of them are w@nkers and some of them useless speculators who are getting badly burnt. The BTLers I happen to know are in it so they can either house members of their family who would otherwise end up in a council house in Whithawk, or who have seen their pensions wiped out by the likes of Equitable Life and Gordon Brown. None of them are well off, or even pretend to be, they're just regular people trying to keep their heads above water without having to sponge off the state.

TBH I've never understood why STRs get worshipped on this forum, when what they have done is pure speculation, and yet BTLers (who are much more of a mixed crowd) get vilified.

[Samson]

Thanks for all your comments about the 250 house...

---------------

If she says no, buy it off her in a year for £180k - saving yourself £70k

---------------

That’s the tricky bit… no-one knows for sure whether that will happen. You can’t be 100% sure you’ll get it for 180 in a year, although there is a chance you might. All depends on the economy. The mortgage company reckon interest rates will stay low for a couple of years (under 3%). I agree with them (unless there’s a run on the pound). After 2010 I think we’ll see them rise, and then there might be some proper rock bottom bargains as people are finally forced to sell.

The other tricky bit is finding something you actually like. There are bargains out there, but that’s why they are bargains, cos nobody actually wants them.

Neg equity won’t be a problem, even if things go –50%. Just shows timing is everything, but it depends on your situation too. First timers should hang on. But it looks like I might be jumping back in. Not a bargain but not a rip-off either

---------------

My only other thought is where (roughly) is the house you are looking at, as there are areas that I think will hold their value better than others. I suspect that a house going for about 250K probably isn't in one of them though.

---------------

The area is off the Ditchling Road, south of the railway line. I’ve looked at so many flats and houses, maybe around 50, and there’s only about two I really liked. This is one of them. Views galore and a ginormous garden.

---------------

Are you sure it's your mortgage that runs out and not your discounted tracker period?

……………

It’s a lifetime tracker 0.19 above BBR, no penalties or tie-ins and fully portable, no questions asked. Currently 1.69% !!! (I did my research when I remortgaged in 2003) Too good to lose? I reckon

I’m not interested in BTL at all. Just a nice house at a realistic price which is a good investment too. Have decided to go to the survey stage and see what the valuation comes in at. If it’s way below 250 I’ll pull out. Will only lose £150 for the cost of the survey. Will keep you posted

[lorna1999]

---------------

My only other thought is where (roughly) is the house you are looking at, as there are areas that I think will hold their value better than others. I suspect that a house going for about 250K probably isn't in one of them though.

---------------

The area is off the Ditchling Road, south of the railway line. I’ve looked at so many flats and houses, maybe around 50, and there’s only about two I really liked. This is one of them. Views galore and a ginormous garden.

---------------

So. Ldn Rd Stn area? Not a bad area to live, but not one likely to hold value imo. I remember houses round there going for about 80K in 1994. It has since got a higher student population, and so is less desirable than it used to be. The best houses there were going for (imo - not checked actual prices) aroung 375K at peak, but the majority were for sub 300K, with of course a lot of properties being flats. 250K is still a high price to pay for what you would get, although location is very convenient. I wouldn't go for it personally...

[Ladybirder]

Hmmm - so the owner is already threatening that she will withdraw from the sale if you try to reduce your offer after the survey? No matter what that survey says? Do we know how long this house has been on the market?