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House Price Crash Forum


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About castrogtx

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  1. The reason we have a peak average price again is due to the figures being skewed to the top end. There are very few FTB's coming into the market - flats I understand are a bugger to shift at the moment - whereas houses are selling to folk who have a house to sell. Houses being swapped by homeowners and far fewer ftb's buying cheaper flats has skewed the average. From my experience we are still 10% off the peak prices.
  2. Definite change in sentiment in these parts. I've just had an offer accepted on a house in Brighton. We had viewed a number of properties over the last two months and in early April we put in offers on two houses at around 10% under without too much interest shown by the vendors. We continued this strategy despite finding the perfect house for my very young family. Our 10% was turned down but we still secured 7% off when our second offer was accepted. The house had only been available to view for 4 days. Certainly the back drop of Land reg/halifax figures helped along with the urgency we begun to feel from EA's. Two of the last estate agents we spoke to admitted that things were slow and in the last few weeks low offers were eagerly encouraged. I will expect to see the value of the house fall nominally by about 10% and to see another 10% come off in real terms over the next 2-3 years. Maybe more, maybe less. But I do not expect to really loose a great deal as I stop paying rent and my 6 figure deposit stops being eroded by inflation. The game is not up, but it is for me. I'm still sickened by Govt and BOE policy that changed the rules - QE and IR's etc. I still hope to see house prices fall so that the young (my kids included) can afford to live and to own their own houses.
  3. These rich people are just swapping off houses between themselves, obviously skewing the average. It is clear from these figures that FTB's are very rare indeed. Under these conditions the market can only fall. I'm seeing prices marked down - the market is falling.
  4. The crash has not been postponed, it is happening. We had an extremely quick fall of 20% followed by record low interest rates and QE. The last ailing govt threw all they could at the housing market in the hope that it would result in votes in ballot boxes. They managed a 10% rise as their swansong. The current govt has far less to throw at the problem (interest rates can't go any lower) and if the coalition can stay together they don't need the votes for another four years - so rising house prices is not at the moment a political imperative. House prices are falling once again - I'm not certain we will see 20% in a year like 2008 but 10-15% is definitely possible. By the end of next year it is quite possible that we can be 30% from peak (45% inflation adjusted). A 30% fall from peak in 4 years would be the biggest nominal fall ever seen in such a timespan. I'm sure this would make up for 4 years rent money - plus you haven't been paying interest on a mortgage. A £250,000 mortgage at 5% means over £550 in interest payments a month - that's dead money to. Possible QE2 makes me nervous - but it took 6 months to kick in last time. So you can start house hunting once it's announced.
  5. I've seen a number of houses reduce AP by 10% in the last 2 weeks. Reality may be biting. Although, admittedly these properties are still a long way from fair value.
  6. Latest RICs Geoffrey Holden FRICS, Parsons Son & Basley, Brighton, East Sussex, 1273274001 - Still a lot of caution from applicants regarding the direction of prices. Usual situation with vendors, if they are realistic over prices, sales can be agreed.
  7. Latest RICs Geoffrey Holden FRICS, Parsons Son & Basley, Brighton, East Sussex, 01273 274001 - Buyer confidence a problem due to negative media reports. Job insecurity and difficulty with mortgages still creating a slow middle market. Media still the big problem! Job security and mortgage availability stiffling the middle market? Nonsense. Must be code for I'm sh1tt1ng it.
  8. Latest RICS Geoffrey Holden FRICS, Parsons Son & Basley, Brighton, East Sussex, 01273 274001 - Good level of activity and increased instructions. Applicants seem to be hesitant to commit, negative media reports and difficulty with mortgages seem to be causing the lack of confidence. Good and bad again! Only the facts are causing a lack of confidence. There's no place for facts in home buying - surely.
  9. Ireland does not have a history of trade unionism, hence a lack of organised protest. The reason for this is because the UK occupied the country for much of their history and made it difficult or illegal for any community groups to form. The real shame is that the Celtic tiger mirage had allowed so many citizens to return to Ireland - now they all have to leave again for the same old economic reasons.
  10. From RICS survey: Geoffrey Holden FRICS, Parsons Son & Basley, Brighton, East Sussex, 01273 274001 - With rising numbers of new instructions and reducing numbers of able buyers, prices will fall from current levels, but not in a continuous month by month way. However, in a years time prices will be lower than they are now. So down, maybe up but then down. What do estate agents call a spade?
  11. Clearly I only found an abridged quote. Found the full comment on the main forum: Geoffrey Holden FRICS, Parsons Son & Basley, Brighton, East Sussex - New instructions coming on but the increased prices from earlier this year have stopped. Applicants offering below the asking prices and are being difficult in raising the offers.
  12. RICS Latest: Geoffrey Holden FRICS, Parsons Son & Basley, Brighton, East Sussex, 01273 326171 -Instruction levels increasing but applicants being more cautious over price increases. More double dutch. Does this mean people are putting their houses on at lower than the EA advises?
  13. This property search has now reached 193. I'm calling a buyers market at 200 i.e. next week. Is the same being seen by others?
  14. So was I. I'm suggesting that they have actually fallen by 0.2% but the index will show -2.2% after they are seasoned.
  15. Isn't the seasonal adjustment about -2% in March. This must surely lead to a negative figure: -2.2% is my guess.
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