The World Ain't Flat After All

[Pablo-silver or lead?]

B'mouth has always been a town of solicitors and estate agents 'Dream Town' it was called in a 'reality TV show a few years ago. The B'mth Poole experiance of huge real drops (peak to trough) from Aug 1988 to 1994 (up to 60% in extreem cases but certainly -35% across the board) will be repeated. Looking at real properties selling, prices havent risen in the conurbation for arround 2.5 years. Some of the OFF Plan flat developments have proved a financial disaster for the 'investors'. There is a lot of long term kite flying going on i.e. crazy priced properties been on the market for 1 to 2 years without a sniff of a sale. In some cases the owners read the front page of the Express and put em up another 20%, as I said its a dream town about to turn into a nightmare for anyone who has over leveraged to BTL and or bought in the last 3 to 4 years with low deposite/high income multiple.

see you at the bottom

Pablo Silver or Lead?

[sun n sea]

Pab- that's encouraging... well for me anyway.

Second home owners from London- yeah theres lots of them- like fleas on a stray dog Having said that a lot are buying into the whole Boscombe Reef development- B'mth council are dumping a ton of rocks out in the bay to create a surfers paradise.

Thing is Boscombe is the scummiest part of town- most locals wouldn't touch it with a barge pole- costa del dole is what they used to call it- one well known bedsit guy was advertising in Liverpool for tenants to come down with their DSS cheques.

Of the local pubs one has Blue lighting in every nook and cranny and the other one the landlord is being done for obstructing the investigation of a murder (so it said on the front page of the local rag anyways)- like I said it's a nice place- not.

I'm going to sit tight and wait for some of these new builds and BTL's to drop down in price.

[othello]

He has lost credibility with these posts.

Really? a 2.2% fall YOY for Bournemouth is significant. That represents a 5% drop in real prices. Do you prefer 'adjusted' figures? SOund just like a VI!

[Guest wrongmove]

Really? a 2.2% fall YOY for Bournemouth is significant. That represents a 5% drop in real prices. Do you prefer 'adjusted' figures? SOund just like a VI!

Read the whole thread Othello.

Bournemouth QoQ:

All properties +2.2%

Detached +9.2%

Flats -4.2%

Semis -1.4%

Terrace -0.3%

The samples are so small that these figures are essentially random - the margin of error is bigger than the actual moves.

These stats are just not any use - see CO's thread - we found QoQ rises up to 70% and falls up to 50%. It's just bad stats. Its like asking one person what they will vote and then saying 100% of voters say xxx will win the election.

If you are determined to find evidence for falls in these figures, then you will, and this post won't change your opinion. But you can also "prove" that prices are booming. Or you can see these figures for what they are - the choice is yours !

[othello]

Read the whole thread Othello.

Bournemouth QoQ:

All properties +2.2%

Detached +9.2%

Flats -4.2%

Semis -1.4%

Terrace -0.3%

The samples are so small that these figures are essentially random - the margin of error is bigger than the actual moves.

These stats are just not any use - see CO's thread - we found QoQ rises up to 70% and falls up to 50%. It's just bad stats. Its like asking one person what they will vote and then saying 100% of voters say xxx will win the election.

If you are determined to find evidence for falls in these figures, then you will, and this post won't change your opinion. But you can also "prove" that prices are booming. Or you can see these figures for what they are - the choice is yours !

I sapecifically referred to YoY prices.

The figures are no less meaningful than the 'UK average'. Some places will rise, others will fall. The average tells you nothing. On the other hand if you are looking to buy in Bournemouth the local figures can be very useful.

[Guest wrongmove]

I sapecifically referred to YoY prices.

The figures are no less meaningful than the 'UK average'. Some places will rise, others will fall. The average tells you nothing. On the other hand if you are looking to buy in Bournemouth the local figures can be very useful.

Bournemouth YoY

All +5.7%

Detached +16.2%

Flats -2.2%

Semi -3.0%

Terraced -1.1%

The figures are bit more consistant YoY due to the bigger sample, but they are still not mix-adjusted.

Have the falls been because many smaller cheaper properties have changed hands ? i.e. a boom in FTB/BTL

Or have many larger properties changed hands so the falls are really bigger than this ?

We just don't know, so the blinkered (or statistically naive), bull or bear, just jump to their preferred conclusion. You can spin this data anyway you want, and VIs for a crash (us) or for a boom (lenders, eas etc) do just that.

Looking at YoY figures for all properties (the biggest samples), at the top is Hartlepool with +32.3%, at the bottom is Conwy at -6.6%. Only 13 counties are negative YoY, whereas 94 counties show rises. You can see how selective some posters are being in giving these figures a bearish spin.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d.../counties.stm?a

Edited July 26, 2006 by wrongmove

[Sledgehead]

RB is the spin meister -

Indeed, and most amused, given his religious freakery, by the irony of finding him commenting in a thread entitled "The World Ain't Flat After All", without so much as a hint of embarrassement!

[Realistbear]

He has lost credibility with these posts.

The stats are from the Land Registry. They are based on actual sales rather than VI's "asking prices." As we have all seen VIs such as Rightmove have lost credibility by seeding their listings with multi-million pound maisonettes etc. to skew the averages.

Overall, the LR data is more reliable as it is historical data rather than speculative fortune telling which, for some reason, you seem to prefer?

The stats you say are false are taken from the BBC's website for the area concerned. Below is a wider example which shows it is not just Bournemouth that is dropping:

Christchurch

£164,813 -2.8% 0.9% 53

East Dorset

£161,567 1.1% 5.3% 57

Bournemouth

£155,253 -4.2% -2.2% 511

Weymouth And Portland

£152,525 0.7% 27.2% 107

West Dorset

£141,260 -4.9% -6.6% 74

North Dorset

£117,582 -7.4% 4.6%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...s/html/hn.stm?f

The first figure is for the Q ending March 30th 2006, the second is YoY.

I do realise how annoying these figures are to the agressive Bulls because they do not support the "prices never go down" argument. However, it is best to accept reality and take steps to protect your assets than to believe in a miracle economy which is rapidly running out of its magic powers. As Merv said, there is a bumpy road ahead.

[Guest wrongmove]

Detached are up 9.2% QoQ - they should double in the next 2 years then. However terraces are down 8.1% QoQ. So they will half in the next year are so.

Aren't non-mix adjusted data from tiny samples great !! By choosing the right ones, you can make any point you want !

RB, I believe you are intelligent enough to understand the dangers of using poor quality stats like these to influence a huge decision. Yet you reel them out again, and again, and again, and again, and again.

Are you really thick or deliberately misleading ? It has to be one or the other.

So RB, thick or misleading. Which is it ?

[Realistbear]

I sapecifically referred to YoY prices.

The figures are no less meaningful than the 'UK average'. Some places will rise, others will fall. The average tells you nothing. On the other hand if you are looking to buy in Bournemouth the local figures can be very useful.

This is right. The least meaningful figures are the VIs' "asking prices" as they do not reflect reality only theoretical data. The greatest spin comes from Rightmove due to their inclusion of multi-unti properties as a single property and gross "errors" such as 100 million pound maisonettes etc.

The LR data is considered spin by the more agressive bulls because it is does explode the myth that house prices only go up. The biggest drops are coming from the North and this is consistent with some of the VI data that is starting to show a wider North-South divide as foreign money boosts Greater London prices while the rest of the country languishes or drops.

We may be moving to the Gatwick area in a few months and quick check on their local market shows some pleasant statistics:

Crawley

£303,250 -4.8% -17.7%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...county101.stm?d

The people I may be working with in that area confirm that the market is "very slow" and that houses are taking over a year to move and only then with sizeable drops.

-17.7% for YoY is quite substantial but I doubt it is "spin" as the more agressive bulls would like to think. More like Sgt. Friday's presentation of data.

So RB, thick or misleading. Which is it ?

My recommendation is to read up on the Land Registry data and to ask them if their data is misrepresenative or thick. I realise its is very dissappointing for those who believe in the Miracle Economy and that prices only go up but it is good to see it from the Land Registry's perspective for some balance. After all, if we all relied on Rightmove and other "asking price" data it could be reliance upon no more than spin.

It is best to review all of the LR data as some areas show positive gains. Others do not. The overall trend is that the market is patchy with losses more prominent in the North than the South. However, Sussex seems to be an exception for some reason--perhaps too much EA hype has backfired.

Edited July 26, 2006 by Realistbear

[Guest wrongmove]

It is best to review all of the LR data as some areas show positive gains. Others do not. The overall trend is that the market is patchy with losses more prominent in the North than the South. However, Sussex seems to be an exception for some reason--perhaps too much EA hype has backfired.

Indeed - YoY figures for all counties show that 94 counties rose, and 13 fell. So the overall trend is firmly up, I'm afraid.

Looking at YoY figures for all properties (the biggest samples), at the top is Hartlepool with +32.3%, at the bottom is Conwy at -6.6%. Only 13 counties are negative YoY, whereas 94 counties show rises. You can see how selective some posters are being in giving these figures a bearish spin.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d.../counties.stm?a

You are just quoteing statistical noise, but only where it suits your case.

From the actual LR website:

Where the volumes shown are small the average price may not be representative.

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/propertyprice/aboutppr.asp

So, yes, the LR do understand the nature of stats.

I am an FTB so I too have a VI in a crash. I just don't believe that pulling the wool over my own eyes, or others, is going to bring a crash any closer.

[Qetesuesi]

Indeed, and most amused, given his religious freakery, by the irony of finding him commenting in a thread entitled "The World Ain't Flat After All", without so much as a hint of embarrassement!

A post that fits your username perfectly.

[Realistbear]

Indeed - YoY figures for all counties show that 94 counties rose, and 13 fell. So the overall trend is firmly up, I'm afraid.

You are just quoteing statistical noise, but only where it suits your case.

From the actual LR website:

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/propertyprice/aboutppr.asp

So, yes, the LR do understand the nature of stats.

I am an FTB so I too have a VI in a crash. I just don't believe that pulling the wool over my own eyes, or others, is going to bring a crash any closer.

You may be erring toward the selective. The LR data shows many more areas down that just 13.

Let's start with the "North" http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region1.stm

North

Average Cost: £129,332

Detached: £228,921

Semi-detached: £133,509

Terraced: £98,805

Flat: £107,854

Northumberland

£149,225 -8.8% 5.9% 1129

Cumbria

£143,851 -1.6% 7.7% 2006

Tyne And Wear

£132,526 -0.3% 9.1% 4023

Stockton-On-Tees

£128,643 -5.0% -2.9% 682

Darlington

£125,556 -5.6% 2.3% 530

Durham

£114,329 -4.3% 6.5% 1956

Redcar And Cleveland

£109,289 -11.2% 5.2% 502

Middlesbrough

£108,982 4.7% 22.7% 485

Hartlepool

£98,770 -5.2% 32.3%

As we can see ALL listed regions bar one are negative which suggests a definite trend downward.

Moving on to the East Midlands: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region6.stm

East Midlands

Average Cost: £150,502

Detached: £221,026

Semi-detached: £131,064

Terraced: £110,285

Flat: £112,046

Rutland

£228,672 -7.7% 7.1% 148

Leicestershire

£170,145 -3.5% -1.5% 2555

Northamptonshire

£158,537 -3.5% -0.1% 3322

Lincolnshire

£147,659 -1.9% 1.8% 3091

Derbyshire

£147,537 -3.5% 1.6% 2901

Nottinghamshire

£146,871 -2.0% -0.9% 3059

City Of Derby

£137,082 -0.3% 3.3% 935

Leicester

£134,130 0.3% 6.6% 954

City Of Nottingham

£119,797 -5.2% 1.2% 1035

We see the same pattern withy the vast majority of Land registry areas reporting falls supporting the argument that prices are, in fact, actually declining.

Turning to the West Midlands I can see how your argument might have a little more strength:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region5.stm

West Midlands

Average Cost: £158,343

Detached: £263,214

Semi-detached: £147,595

Terraced: £118,262

Flat: £122,027

Herefordshire

£208,672 2.2% 6.2% 658

Worcestershire

£184,936 -3.3% 1.1% 2102

Warwickshire

£184,860 -3.4% -2.4% 2255

Shropshire

£184,664 -3.1% 2.8% 1127

Staffordshire

£161,232 -0.1% 3.9% 2886

West Midlands

£146,903 0.3% 8% 8775

Wrekin

£140,819 1.2% 4.3% 679

Stoke-On-Trent

£89,910 -5.6% 4.4%

Thus, in the West Midflands houses prices were much stronger with 3 out of 8 regions reporting gains. However, the overall picture is still negative.

Looking to the Southwest we can see much the same with a few areas showing gains but a slender majority still going down:

South West

Average Cost: £198,952

Detached: £295,983

Semi-detached: £182,131

Terraced: £161,095

Flat: £146,632

Poole

£261,746 7.2% 4.1% 736

Bath And North East Somerset

£249,488 1.1% 3.6% 646

Dorset

£226,010 -0.5% 0.2% 2051

Devon

£212,600 -0.3% 1.3% 3123

Wiltshire

£209,024 -3.5% 1.2% 1813

Cornwall

£203,006 -2.5% -0.8% 2131

Bournemouth

£202,293 2.2% 5.7% 992

Gloucestershire

£201,799 -0.5% 1.1% 2512

North Somerset

£185,780 -4.6% 2% 928

Somerset

£183,850 -1.5% -2.0% 2296

South Gloucestershire

£182,959 -2.5% 4.6% 1058

City Of Bristol

£178,116 0.6% -0.9% 1767

Torbay

£174,208 -2.0% 4.1% 642

Swindon

£155,868 -2.3% 0.5% 994

City Of Plymouth

£151,301 4.3% 1.7% 1154

5 areas going up 10 going down.

I hope you can see that, according to the LR, each region is different but of all the stats for the North, Midlands and the West the greater majority are going down. Far more than the 13 areas you suggest are declining.

East Anglia tells much the same story--75% down, 25% up:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/regions/html/region7.stm

East Anglia

Average Cost: £175,036

Detached: £238,293

Semi-detached: £155,354

Terraced: £137,089

Flat: £119,100

Cambridgeshire

£197,085 -2.0% 1.6% 2373

Suffolk

£176,077 -2.7% 0.2% 3238

Norfolk

£166,062 -0.8% 2.9% 3495

City Of Peterborough

£146,481 1.7% 8.5% 852

Notice the somewhat large samples used by the LR.

Bottom line: the market is showing quite a few areas as having dropped which is contrary to most VI spin.

Edited July 26, 2006 by Realistbear

[Guest pioneer31]

After being subjected to the "got to get on the ladder" and "house prices are going to rocket get in now" type of pressure from friends and family

Brainwashing is widespread. I spoke to a colleague the other day who I would describe as intelligent and what did he say to me?

'If we have a HPC, the economy will sink and the govt won't let it happen'

My reply?

"How will they stop it? They couldn't stop the last one."

Edited July 26, 2006 by pioneer31

[Guest wrongmove]

Bottom line: the market is showing quite a few areas as having dropped which is contrary to most VI spin.

I just counted through your figures and could only find 8 areas showing YoY falls. How is this contrary to my statement that 13 areas have shown YoY falls !

I know you are very stubborn RB, and you will reply to this by ignoring the points that have been made and digging out QoQ falls in selected areas on selected property types (yet again ), but I think enough has been posted on this that readers can make up their own minds.

DYOR - don't rely on me, RB or anyone else !! Remember, there are many crash VIs as well as boom VIs - treat both with equal caution, IMHO.

Here's the link :http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d.../counties.stm?a

And here's the data - in order of YoY change: you have to go a long way down the list to find those YoY falls.

County/town, price, QoQ, YoY, sales

Hartlepool

£98,770 -5.2% 32.3% 415

Middlesbrough

£108,982 4.7% 22.7% 485

City Of Kingston Upon Hull

£83,231 1.4% 17.3% 1211

The Vale Of Glamorgan

£178,523 0.3% 16.4% 495

Bridgend

£133,572 -1.7% 12.8% 404

Blackpool

£119,112 2.8% 9.6% 750

Tyne And Wear

£132,526 -0.3% 9.1% 4023

Lancashire

£128,806 -1.9% 8.8% 5417

Merthyr Tydfil

£89,920 -4.8% 8.6% 192

Gwynedd

£153,558 -0.7% 8.5% 348

City Of Peterborough

£146,481 1.7% 8.5% 852

Greater Manchester

£134,935 -2.1% 8.5% 10155

Blackburn With Darwen

£98,762 -2.1% 8.5% 677

Blaenau Gwent

£82,491 -7.4% 8.5% 209

Merseyside

£132,854 0.3% 8.2% 4379

Surrey

£318,980 2.2% 8% 5037

Buckinghamshire

£307,451 2.7% 8% 1733

West Midlands

£146,903 0.3% 8% 8775

Ceredigion

£178,402 6.1% 7.9% 216

Swansea

£139,153 -1.1% 7.8% 876

South Yorkshire

£126,326 -1.4% 7.8% 4577

Cumbria

£143,851 -1.6% 7.7% 2006

East Riding Of Yorkshire

£154,431 -4.5% 7.6% 1475

Carmarthenshire

£137,252 0.1% 7.2% 537

Caerphilly

£115,784 -1.5% 7.2% 542

Rutland

£228,672 -7.7% 7.1% 148

Wrexham

£147,293 -1.6% 7.1% 427

Neath Port Talbot

£102,936 -2.6% 7.1% 503

Monmouthshire

£199,073 3.8% 7% 294

West Yorkshire

£138,242 -1.1% 7% 9129

Flintshire

£142,754 -4.8% 6.8% 406

Leicester

£134,130 0.3% 6.6% 954

Durham

£114,329 -4.3% 6.5% 1956

Herefordshire

£208,672 2.2% 6.2% 658

Greater London

£306,664 5.9% 5.9% 29242

Northumberland

£149,225 -8.8% 5.9% 1129

Bournemouth

£202,293 2.2% 5.7% 992

Southend-On-Sea

£182,346 3.9% 5.5% 948

North Yorkshire

£200,881 0.9% 5.4% 2183

Torfaen

£120,546 -0.4% 5.4% 253

Redcar And Cleveland

£109,289 -11.2% 5.2% 502

Pembrokeshire

£166,873 -2.9% 5.1% 388

Newport

£144,790 -5.0% 4.8% 530

North East Lincolnshire

£102,179 -1.9% 4.8% 786

York

£184,466 4% 4.7% 728

South Gloucestershire

£182,959 -2.5% 4.6% 1058

Luton

£150,880 0.5% 4.6% 782

Stoke-On-Trent

£89,910 -5.6% 4.4% 1089

Powys

£169,929 1.3% 4.3% 335

Wrekin

£140,819 1.2% 4.3% 679

Poole

£261,746 7.2% 4.1% 736

Torbay

£174,208 -2.0% 4.1% 642

Kent

£206,628 -0.4% 3.9% 6353

Bedfordshire

£193,746 0.9% 3.9% 1804

Isle Of Wight

£181,138 -0.6% 3.9% 683

Staffordshire

£161,232 -0.1% 3.9% 2886

Wokingham

£272,890 1.4% 3.8% 697

Hampshire

£230,858 0.4% 3.7% 5307

Bath And North East Somerset

£249,488 1.1% 3.6% 646

Bracknell Forest

£239,397 7.4% 3.6% 530

Essex

£212,460 -0.9% 3.4% 6001

City Of Derby

£137,082 -0.3% 3.3% 935

Hertfordshire

£257,311 -0.8% 3.2% 4520

Slough

£187,772 0.5% 2.9% 449

Norfolk

£166,062 -0.8% 2.9% 3495

Shropshire

£184,664 -3.1% 2.8% 1127

Rhondda Cynon Taff

£93,453 -2.7% 2.7% 775

West Berkshire

£255,346 2% 2.6% 721

Reading

£196,094 -2.0% 2.6% 743

North Lincolnshire

£122,869 -2.7% 2.6% 592

Darlington

£125,556 -5.6% 2.3% 530

North Somerset

£185,780 -4.6% 2% 928

Cardiff

£171,619 -0.9% 2% 1186

Halton

£127,289 -5.3% 2% 464

Southampton

£161,716 -1.3% 1.8% 950

Lincolnshire

£147,659 -1.9% 1.8% 3091

Brighton And Hove

£222,241 0.6% 1.7% 1328

Warrington

£156,929 -4.5% 1.7% 713

City Of Plymouth

£151,301 4.3% 1.7% 1154

Oxfordshire

£257,528 5.6% 1.6% 2417

Cambridgeshire

£197,085 -2.0% 1.6% 2373

Cheshire

£185,036 -1.6% 1.6% 2618

Derbyshire

£147,537 -3.5% 1.6% 2901

Devon

£212,600 -0.3% 1.3% 3123

Denbighshire

£140,981 -1.9% 1.3% 336

Wiltshire

£209,024 -3.5% 1.2% 1813

Portsmouth

£154,803 0.6% 1.2% 867

City Of Nottingham

£119,797 -5.2% 1.2% 1035

Windsor And Maidenhead

£335,761 -1.0% 1.1% 496

Gloucestershire

£201,799 -0.5% 1.1% 2512

Worcestershire

£184,936 -3.3% 1.1% 2102

Milton Keynes

£175,337 -0.6% 1.1% 1224

Medway

£154,231 -2.1% 0.6% 1125

Swindon

£155,868 -2.3% 0.5% 994

Dorset

£226,010 -0.5% 0.2% 2051

Suffolk

£176,077 -2.7% 0.2% 3238

Northamptonshire

£158,537 -3.5% -0.1% 3322

West Sussex

£221,415 -2.2% -0.4% 3827

Isle Of Anglesey

£145,033 -12.2% -0.7% 213

Cornwall

£203,006 -2.5% -0.8% 2131

City Of Bristol

£178,116 0.6% -0.9% 1767

Nottinghamshire

£146,871 -2.0% -0.9% 3059

East Sussex

£198,541 -3.0% -1.0% 2544

Leicestershire

£170,145 -3.5% -1.5% 2555

Thurrock

£169,523 -0.6% -1.5% 619

Somerset

£183,850 -1.5% -2.0% 2296

Warwickshire

£184,860 -3.4% -2.4% 2255

Stockton-On-Tees

£128,643 -5.0% -2.9% 682

Conwy

£151,565 -4.1% -6.6% 405

[Realistbear]

YoY and current Q are miles apart for many areas. The trend is best seen in the most recent data. The market turned in 2005 and YoY will continue to show positive in the LR figures for some time yet.

Most people want to know what the most recent trend is and YoY can often be misleading if the declines are quite recent.

However, YoY are in stark contrast to many recent Q which underscores the dramatic change underway. Well spotted. I daresday if you went back to 2004 or even 2005 ALL regions would have been positive.

[Casual Observer]

With a drop of 4.2% in one quarter the annualized drop is headed toward crash territory.

RB did you forget that you referred to Q on Q figures here? All I did was to do the same thing

Edited July 26, 2006 by Casual Observer

[apom]

What about second home owners from London?

your right, London.

People have the money:

They wuill contiinue to buy up all the houses that the locals can't afford.

well, not so many now prices have trebbled.

Just because people have the money does not mean that they are going to rush in to prop up a market that would fail without them

Unlike "current property investors" their money has to be gained through intelligence, it is unlikely that they wil;l continue to pump money into housing.

If the only reason it is an investment is because they are buying they will leave

Fact.

Most houses have been bought by BTL investors mistaken on their yields and expecting short term gains, at current prices in most of the country they are loosing money. That is without voids.

Edited July 26, 2006 by apom

[Casual Observer]

If the only reason it is an investment is because they are buying they will leave

Fact.

Not sure I understand that!

Fact.

[apom]

Not sure I understand that!

Fact.

I know.

I hope that it was my grammar.

Not the concept

If the only reason that housing is an investment is because a very few people need to put a great deal of their money into it.

When they know their wealth is rare.

They will stop investing.

unless they are fools, greater fools

Edited July 26, 2006 by apom

[Casual Observer]

When they know their wealth is rare.

What does that bit mean?

[Guest wrongmove]

I have bumped this thread to try and put some context on the LR figures. The latest figures are not necessarily as depressing as they look because of the lack of mix and seasonal adjustment.

Just like the last figures were nothing to get excited about either.