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sun n sea

The World Ain't Flat After All

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After being subjected to the "got to get on the ladder" and "house prices are going to rocket get in now" type of pressure from friends and family I'm hearted to find it's not just me resisting the crazy notion to buy at any price- thanks to this site I now know there's plenty more people who refuse to jump over the cliff too.

Down here in the Bournemouth area things are pretty bad with FTBers being offer the scrappings off the bottom of the barrel at top whack prices. Just today a friend rolled out the old chesnut that prices are going to rise 20% again this year.... bla, bla, bla. My argument is that it is impossible for prices to keep on rising and that realistically they've got to drop- and by a fairly big %tage.

What is comes down to for me is what exactly does my mortgage get me- and right now the answer is $hithole.

As far as BTL goes I do know from a mate who is a court appointed baliff that 90% of the workload at the moment is BTL repo's- with the resulting glut of nasty "modern living" apartments coming back onto the market. He feels sorry for the tenants who are getting booted out without any advanced warning.

BTL landlords are going to find that depriving people of buying their own home by having a "portfolio" of rental flats is going to cost them dear in the long run- which I think is what most of em deserve. People don't need to rent they want to buy... but buy at a realistic price.

Cheers for a great site

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After being subjected to the "got to get on the ladder" and "house prices are going to rocket get in now" type of pressure from friends and family I'm hearted to find it's not just me resisting the crazy notion to buy at any price- thanks to this site I now know there's plenty more people who refuse to jump over the cliff too.

Down here in the Bournemouth area things are pretty bad with FTBers being offer the scrappings off the bottom of the barrel at top whack prices. Just today a friend rolled out the old chesnut that prices are going to rise 20% again this year.... bla, bla, bla. My argument is that it is impossible for prices to keep on rising and that realistically they've got to drop- and by a fairly big %tage.

What is comes down to for me is what exactly does my mortgage get me- and right now the answer is $hithole.

As far as BTL goes I do know from a mate who is a court appointed baliff that 90% of the workload at the moment is BTL repo's- with the resulting glut of nasty "modern living" apartments coming back onto the market. He feels sorry for the tenants who are getting booted out without any advanced warning.

BTL landlords are going to find that depriving people of buying their own home by having a "portfolio" of rental flats is going to cost them dear in the long run- which I think is what most of em deserve. People don't need to rent they want to buy... but buy at a realistic price.

Cheers for a great site

My sister is an estate agent in Bournemouth - and she says a lot of BTL's are suffering, and in particular holiday flat market is

real bad . However she also says there is no shortage of people (particularly people from London) v keen to invest in BTL - in fact she says there is huge demand and that house prices in Bournemouth won't crash until the last BTL lemming falls off the cliff. Sit tight - you are doing the right thing in my view.

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After being subjected to the "got to get on the ladder" and "house prices are going to rocket get in now" type of pressure from friends and family I'm hearted to find it's not just me resisting the crazy notion to buy at any price- thanks to this site I now know there's plenty more people who refuse to jump over the cliff too.

Down here in the Bournemouth area things are pretty bad with FTBers being offer the scrappings off the bottom of the barrel at top whack prices. Just today a friend rolled out the old chesnut that prices are going to rise 20% again this year.... bla, bla, bla. My argument is that it is impossible for prices to keep on rising and that realistically they've got to drop- and by a fairly big %tage.

What is comes down to for me is what exactly does my mortgage get me- and right now the answer is $hithole.

As far as BTL goes I do know from a mate who is a court appointed baliff that 90% of the workload at the moment is BTL repo's- with the resulting glut of nasty "modern living" apartments coming back onto the market. He feels sorry for the tenants who are getting booted out without any advanced warning.

BTL landlords are going to find that depriving people of buying their own home by having a "portfolio" of rental flats is going to cost them dear in the long run- which I think is what most of em deserve. People don't need to rent they want to buy... but buy at a realistic price.

Cheers for a great site

Welcome!

I'm in the process of moving to Bournemouth and am amazed at how many flats and apartments there are to rent although very few of them are of any reasonable quality.

I'm moving from SW London, expensive area on the Thames and the prices in B'mouth amaze me - they aren't far off the SW London prices and yet I know (my sister lived there) that salaries are much lower.

Renting is much better in Bournemouth - for the price of my 1-bed flat I'll be able to rent a 2-bed house or flat with garage. Therefore this would suggest that any BTL bought in the last year or two must be being subsidised by the owners. Bournemouth is a classic example of somewhere that will quite realistically experience 40% falls - when the BTL brigade evaporate

Edited by munimula

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"refuse to jump over the cliff too"

This reminds me of that program on Sunday night. Tribe.

Bascially, when the young men became old enough they had a ceremony that made them men. They had to jump over cows. During the day the sisters were whipped to show they will take pain for their brother (which would scare them for life), so later in life their brother would help them out when needed. It was obvious the girls were in incredible pain, but they happily went ahead.

It was interesting how one girl was the first girl ever to go to school in the near by village. After being 'educated' she refused to be whipped during the ceremony. Because of this the others in the tribe didn't consider her to be one of them.

Ok, very (very) different to the housing market (and i'm not saying it is right or wrong), but it reminds me how sometimes I can be considered an 'outsider' because I have different views.

Everything will be clear in hindsight.

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Bournemouth is being hit very hard with the collapse of the BTL market. Here are the latest figures from the Land Registry for the period up to 1st April 2006:

Flats

Bournemouth

£155,253 Last Q: -4.2% YoY: -2.2%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...s/html/hn.stm?f

With a drop of 4.2% in one quarter the annualized drop is headed toward crash territory. :o

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Bournemouth is being hit very hard with the collapse of the BTL market. Here are the latest figures from the Land Registry for the period up to 1st April 2006:

Flats

Bournemouth

£155,253 Last Q: -4.2% YoY: -2.2%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...s/html/hn.stm?f

With a drop of 4.2% in one quarter the annualized drop is headed toward crash territory. :o

40% fall would only take a couple of years at those rates!

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Guest mattsta1964

After being subjected to the "got to get on the ladder" and "house prices are going to rocket get in now" type of pressure from friends and family I'm hearted to find it's not just me resisting the crazy notion to buy at any price- thanks to this site I now know there's plenty more people who refuse to jump over the cliff too.

Down here in the Bournemouth area things are pretty bad with FTBers being offer the scrappings off the bottom of the barrel at top whack prices. Just today a friend rolled out the old chesnut that prices are going to rise 20% again this year.... bla, bla, bla. My argument is that it is impossible for prices to keep on rising and that realistically they've got to drop- and by a fairly big %tage.

What is comes down to for me is what exactly does my mortgage get me- and right now the answer is $hithole.

As far as BTL goes I do know from a mate who is a court appointed baliff that 90% of the workload at the moment is BTL repo's- with the resulting glut of nasty "modern living" apartments coming back onto the market. He feels sorry for the tenants who are getting booted out without any advanced warning.

BTL landlords are going to find that depriving people of buying their own home by having a "portfolio" of rental flats is going to cost them dear in the long run- which I think is what most of em deserve. People don't need to rent they want to buy... but buy at a realistic price.

Cheers for a great site

Congratulations!!

Another sane person joins the forum!

We want MORE MORE MORE people like you!

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Congratulations!!

Another sane person joins the forum!

We want MORE MORE MORE people like you!

Like Diogenes, You need to go out with a lamp in broad daylight..

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Bournemouth does seem to be a magnet for the BTL brigade- mainly I suspect because a lot of people come down in the Summer and think "hey what a great place to live". If you're a local it's different- the beaches are no big deal and filled with tourists from May till September. I'm a local and from what I see the wages down here come no where close to covering a huge mortage.

Am I not "man" enough to get into the market- err, no. I have a deposit and I can afford a good old fashioned repayment mortgage thanks very much.

What I am is "not mug enough" to pay a stratospheric price for a property that is maxed out in terms of market position, offers no scope for real improvement and one which offers zero value for money. When I buy a place I'm going to live in it so I ain't buying a cr@p hole I know I'll hate- lived in a BTL rental box before and felt like a battery hen- hated every minute.

To me a mortgage is REAL money that's got to be paid back- just like any other loan. I'm old enough to remember negative equity and 15% interest rates so I don't buy into thinking everything will always be great- it won't.

Simple fact is if prices keep going up and FTBers can't be scared or cajolled into taking on a huge mortgage then the whole market grinds to a halt. Do any FTB'ers think what the EA's are offering is good value?

As for all the flats being built in Bouremouth I can't see where all the tenants are going to come from? There aren't any new industries moving in bringing new workers so who the hell are these flats being built for apart from BTL speculators? It's alright trying to be the next property baron but without the tenant is all pie in the sky.

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Bournemouth is being hit very hard with the collapse of the BTL market. Here are the latest figures from the Land Registry for the period up to 1st April 2006:

Flats

Bournemouth

£155,253 Last Q: -4.2% YoY: -2.2%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...s/html/hn.stm?f

With a drop of 4.2% in one quarter the annualized drop is headed toward crash territory. :o

Using the website link you provided I found this:

Bournemouth

Change in last quarter: 2.2%

Change in last year: 5.7%

So by your argument, on average the annualised overall increase is approachinh hyperinflation proportions! Do I believe this? No, like most sensible people I don't believe you can multiply up a quarterly set of stats. and end up with a realistic annual inflation figure. :)

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Guest wrongmove

Using the website link you provided I found this:

Bournemouth

Change in last quarter: 2.2%

Change in last year: 5.7%

So by your argument, on average the annualised overall increase is approachinh hyperinflation proportions! Do I believe this? No, like most sensible people I don't believe you can multiply up a quarterly set of stats. and end up with a realistic annual inflation figure. :)

Detached are up 9.2% QoQ - they should double in the next 2 years then. However terraces are down 8.1% QoQ. So they will half in the next year are so.

Aren't non-mix adjusted data from tiny samples great !! By choosing the right ones, you can make any point you want !

RB, I believe you are intelligent enough to understand the dangers of using poor quality stats like these to influence a huge decision. Yet you reel them out again, and again, and again, and again, and again.

Are you really thick or deliberately misleading ? It has to be one or the other.

:unsure:

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RB, I believe you are intelligent enough to understand the dangers of using poor quality stats like these to influence a huge decision. Yet you reel them out again, and again, and again, and again, and again.

Are you really thick or deliberately misleading ? It has to be one or the other.

:unsure:

He has lost credibility with these posts.

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Guest wrongmove

But Blaenau Gwnent is down 70%

Blaenau Gwent £149,499 -18.0% 10.4% 23

:P

BTW welcome SnS - it is a great site. I can still remember my relief when I first found it.

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But Blaenau Gwnent is down 70%

Blaenau Gwent £149,499 -18.0% 10.4% 23

:P

BTW welcome SnS - it is a great site. I can still remember my relief when I first found it.

That's it then. I'm selling my Blaenau Gwent properties and investing in Purbeck!

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Guest wrongmove

RB is the spin meister - all stats to be treated with utmost caution

True and true. But it is possible to determine which stats are less meaningless than others. Good things to look for are data that compares like to like, and most important of all, large samples.

e.g.

YoY mix adjusted data for large regions good.

QoQ non-mix adjusted data for tiny samples bad.......

Some extreme examples of this on a thread just started by CO.

(or every other RB thread, of course)

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After being subjected to the "got to get on the ladder" and "house prices are going to rocket get in now" type of pressure from friends and family I'm hearted to find it's not just me resisting the crazy notion to buy at any price- thanks to this site I now know there's plenty more people who refuse to jump over the cliff too.

Down here in the Bournemouth area things are pretty bad with FTBers being offer the scrappings off the bottom of the barrel at top whack prices. Just today a friend rolled out the old chesnut that prices are going to rise 20% again this year.... bla, bla, bla. My argument is that it is impossible for prices to keep on rising and that realistically they've got to drop- and by a fairly big %tage.

What is comes down to for me is what exactly does my mortgage get me- and right now the answer is $hithole.

As far as BTL goes I do know from a mate who is a court appointed baliff that 90% of the workload at the moment is BTL repo's- with the resulting glut of nasty "modern living" apartments coming back onto the market. He feels sorry for the tenants who are getting booted out without any advanced warning.

BTL landlords are going to find that depriving people of buying their own home by having a "portfolio" of rental flats is going to cost them dear in the long run- which I think is what most of em deserve. People don't need to rent they want to buy... but buy at a realistic price.

Cheers for a great site

Welcome I can never understand why Sandbanks (Poole) is so expensive.

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What's Purbeck got to do with it? The Purbecks aren't even in the same area- B'mth is East Dorset Purbecks are West Dorset.

Also, the Purbecks as an area is akin to a national park and there's bugger all real housing out that way. Jobs? well unless you work on a farm or are prepared to serve cream teas to crockles there ain't no real industry or jobs further west than Poole.

What I can't see- and what no one on here has yet to explain is just where these high paying jobs are going to come from to pay for the mega house prices- +20% if you take what's written in the press as true?

Immigration fuels the housing market- OK then people like the Poles come here to work cos the wages are fantastic for them- but that's based on a Polish living standard- how the hell is a Polish immigrant worker going to actually buy a house in the UK? All they're here for is to earn as much money as they can and ship most of it back home- when they've made enough they'll be off home to buy a nice house in Poland. Let's face it the main reason Poles and other immigrants get work is cos they are prepared to accept low wages- how do they buy a house on less than average wages?

If as it claimed that house prices keep increasing at present rates does this mean we all get bigger wage packets to keep up? How are UK companies going to manage to keep hiking wages when we have to compete against lower cost foreign workers? Surely UK companies have to lower prices to compete- so how can you take money out of UK businesses at both ends and still expect things to tick along?

That's why I see the housing market changing- because people arent going to be able to earn enough to pay the mortgages needed for ever increasing prices.

It's the same as all that cr@p about Plumbers and other trades making mega bucks- I have a trade background and all the stuff in the papers is $hite- you'd have to be nuts to leave a well paid city job with benefits to go plumbing- especially now you have the polish guys who'll do it for half what you need to pay your bills.

Sandbanks is sooo expensive cos it's bloody lovely this time of year and sandbanks peninsular is tiny with not many houses

Edited by sun n sea

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What's Purbeck got to do with it? The Purbecks aren't even in the same area- B'mth is East Dorset Purbecks are West Dorset.

Absolutley nothing!

(We're just taking the p1ss out of one of our posters. Stick around, you'll see it all makes sense)

BTW, Mother in law lives in Poole!

What I can't see- and what no one on here has yet to explain is just where these high paying jobs are going to come from to pay for the mega house prices-

London?

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Guest wrongmove

If as it claimed that house prices keep increasing at present rates does this mean we all get bigger wage packets to keep up? How are UK companies going to manage to keep hiking wages when we have to compete against lower cost foreign workers? Surely UK companies have to lower prices to compete- so how can you take money out of UK businesses at both ends and still expect things to tick along?

That's why I see the housing market changing- because people arent going to be able to earn enough to pay the mortgages needed for ever increasing prices.

Very true, but hardly anyone is predicting big rises from here. There are not many true bulls around.

The big question is for FTBs like you and me is will prices actually drop (like 1990) or will they just hang around and wait for wages to catch up (like the 70's "crashes"). That is, should we wait or just take the plunge and get on with it.

Dropping nominal prices have only ever really happened once, so it is a big call (nominal is the cash price and doesn't account for inflation). I'm personally still renting, saving and hoping, but beware of people who (think they) "know" what is going to happen IMHO.

Edited by wrongmove

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Ahh.. I c :)

London; you're probably right. I've spoken to a few people who have moved down and commute back up to London. Usually that lasts 6 months max before the madness of it sinks in- quality of life= zero. The majority of your free time is spent gazing out of the window at the M3/ M27.

With fuel at 99.9p a litre that's gotta be blowing a hole in the finances big time.

If you've signed up for a whopper of a mortgage you're lumbered with the commute cos there aint any jobs round here that pay the same.

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Ahh.. I c :)

London; you're probably right. I've spoken to a few people who have moved down and commute back up to London. Usually that lasts 6 months max before the madness of it sinks in- quality of life= zero. The majority of your free time is spent gazing out of the window at the M3/ M27.

With fuel at 99.9p a litre that's gotta be blowing a hole in the finances big time.

If you've signed up for a whopper of a mortgage you're lumbered with the commute cos there aint any jobs round here that pay the same.

What about second home owners from London?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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