Realistbear Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/newsAr...-POLL-RATES.xml LONDON (Reuters) - Economists now see only a one in five chance of an interest rate cut this quarter following a rebound in house prices, a pick-up in economic growth and upside risks to inflation from higher oil prices, a Reuters poll shows. But the survey of 45 economists, carried out January 30-February 1, showed most still expect the next move in rates to be down -- most likely in May -- to bolster consumer spending and prop up growth which is expected to remain below the long-term average. Mid-range forecasts showed rates staying at 4.5 percent, following last August's quarter point cut, until the end of March before falling to 4.25 percent by the end of June and remaining there for the rest of the year. None of the economists forecast any change in rates at the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on February 8-9, and only three predicted a cut in March. With Al Greenspan taking over as Brown's advisor we can count on high rates until HPI is driven from the economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Wasn't Greenspans policy low rates to stimulate growth? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ignorant Steve Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Wasn't Greenspans policy low rates to stimulate growth? Yep and he cut them far too far. Hence the sheer number of small increases to get back to neutrality. He made a political decision originally instead of an economic one. Can't understand why he didn't increase by 0.5% steps rather than 0.25% steps. It's like he thought neutral rates should be much lower. He under estimated the strength of global growth is my guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
?...! Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Yep and he cut them far too far. Hence the sheer number of small increases to get back to neutrality. He made a political decision originally instead of an economic one. Can't understand why he didn't increase by 0.5% steps rather than 0.25% steps. It's like he thought neutral rates should be much lower. He under estimated the strength of global growth is my guess. [cut] He did cause all of this. The man is nobody’s fool. After 9/11 he knew the US was going to war, he knew public contentment was low, people were scared. The man in a stroke of genius allowed the economy to continue to grow to prevent mass depression sweeping the US (he threw a party), the current position was economically engineered by Greenspan to allow GWB to focus on the war. Greenspan essentially leant a huge volume of cash to US consumers so they would go out and spend, thus temporarily propping up the US economy and funding two wars, both financially and by averting dissent. These wars are coming to maturity, and now the US people will begin to pay for the wars, and also pay for Greenspan’s temporary party to cheer everyone up. As it turns out the party that Greenspan threw to cheer up the US after 9/11 was a lot more expensive than the two wars. [paste] Greenspan never got anything wrong it was/is a very well thought out plan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Greenspan never got anything wrong it was/is a very well thought out plan Indeed. Ayn Rand will be proud of him for destroying the US fiat economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levy process Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Some mistake surely! TTRTR has used his awesome powers of future prediction, and seems to be claiming that we are in a rate cutting cycle at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeFall Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Can't understand why he didn't increase by 0.5% steps rather than 0.25% steps. It's like he thought neutral rates should be much lower. He under estimated the strength of global growth is my guess. Probably because when it's only a 25bp raise the immediate impact on a persons pocket is quite small. It's only when there's been 10 hikes at 25 that the people in debt realise they've suddenly got no money left at the end of each month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Probably because when it's only a 25bp raise the immediate impact on a persons pocket is quite small. 0.25% raises give the smart money a chance to see the writing on the wall and get out, while the stupid money keeps buying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Futures are up: http://www.futuresource.com/quotes/quotes.jsp?s=LSS The market don't see a cut forthcoming! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Some mistake surely! TTRTR has used his awesome powers of future prediction, and seems to be claiming that we are in a rate cutting cycle at the moment. Maybe I should PM him to found out the next UK Lotto numbers? TTRTR: I see the winner of Saturday's draw. It is either a man or a woman. They live in a house, or possibly a flat. This house is located in the United Kingdom. Probably the North, or perhaps the South. And they have the winning ticket (unless it's a rollover of course). Priceless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
numbersix Posted February 1, 2006 Share Posted February 1, 2006 Consumers' unsecured borrowing rose by its smallest amount in five years in December but mortgage lending accelerated more than expected to a 18-month high. Can the increase in Mortgage lending be explained by people moving their CC debts to secured loans and re-mortgaging rather than any surge in house prices... In my area (South Dorset) several EA's have recently closed down and two others have just merged. The property market is dead with no apparent activity at the moment.. Whether market activity will improve in the Spring only time will tell... Peronally I feel from my gut feelings that House prices will completely stagnate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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