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Realistbear

No I R Cut For U K

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http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/newsAr...-POLL-RATES.xml

LONDON (Reuters) - Economists now see only a one in five chance of an interest rate cut this quarter following a rebound in house prices, a pick-up in economic growth and upside risks to inflation from higher oil prices, a Reuters poll shows.
But the survey of 45 economists, carried out January 30-February 1, showed most still expect the next move in rates to be down -- most likely in May -- to bolster consumer spending and prop up growth which is expected to remain below the long-term average.
Mid-range forecasts showed rates staying at 4.5 percent, following last August's quarter point cut, until the end of March before falling to 4.25 percent by the end of June and remaining there for the rest of the year.
None of the economists forecast any change in rates at the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on February 8-9, and only three predicted a cut in March.

With Al Greenspan taking over as Brown's advisor we can count on high rates until HPI is driven from the economy.

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Wasn't Greenspans policy low rates to stimulate growth?

Yep and he cut them far too far. Hence the sheer number of small increases to get back to neutrality.

He made a political decision originally instead of an economic one. Can't understand why he didn't increase by 0.5% steps rather than 0.25% steps. It's like he thought neutral rates should be much lower. He under estimated the strength of global growth is my guess.

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Yep and he cut them far too far. Hence the sheer number of small increases to get back to neutrality.

He made a political decision originally instead of an economic one. Can't understand why he didn't increase by 0.5% steps rather than 0.25% steps. It's like he thought neutral rates should be much lower. He under estimated the strength of global growth is my guess.

[cut]

He did cause all of this.

The man is nobody’s fool.

After 9/11 he knew the US was going to war, he knew public contentment was low, people were scared.

The man in a stroke of genius allowed the economy to continue to grow to prevent mass depression sweeping the US (he threw a party), the current position was economically engineered by Greenspan to allow GWB to focus on the war.

Greenspan essentially leant a huge volume of cash to US consumers so they would go out and spend, thus temporarily propping up the US economy and funding two wars, both financially and by averting dissent. These wars are coming to maturity, and now the US people will begin to pay for the wars, and also pay for Greenspan’s temporary party to cheer everyone up.

As it turns out the party that Greenspan threw to cheer up the US after 9/11 was a lot more expensive than the two wars.

[paste]

Greenspan never got anything wrong it was/is a very well thought out plan

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Greenspan never got anything wrong it was/is a very well thought out plan

Indeed. Ayn Rand will be proud of him for destroying the US fiat economy.

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Can't understand why he didn't increase by 0.5% steps rather than 0.25% steps. It's like he thought neutral rates should be much lower. He under estimated the strength of global growth is my guess.

Probably because when it's only a 25bp raise the immediate impact on a persons pocket is quite small. It's only when there's been 10 hikes at 25 that the people in debt realise they've suddenly got no money left at the end of each month.

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Probably because when it's only a 25bp raise the immediate impact on a persons pocket is quite small.

0.25% raises give the smart money a chance to see the writing on the wall and get out, while the stupid money keeps buying.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Some mistake surely! TTRTR has used his awesome powers of future prediction, and seems to be claiming that we are in a rate cutting cycle at the moment. :lol:

Maybe I should PM him to found out the next UK Lotto numbers?

TTRTR: I see the winner of Saturday's draw. It is either a man or a woman. They live in a house, or possibly a flat. This house is located in the United Kingdom. Probably the North, or perhaps the South. And they have the winning ticket (unless it's a rollover of course).

Priceless.

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Consumers' unsecured borrowing rose by its smallest amount in five years in December but mortgage lending accelerated more than expected to a 18-month high.

Can the increase in Mortgage lending be explained by people moving their CC debts to secured loans and re-mortgaging rather than any surge in house prices...

In my area (South Dorset) several EA's have recently closed down and two others have just merged.

The property market is dead with no apparent activity at the moment..

Whether market activity will improve in the Spring only time will tell...

Peronally I feel from my gut feelings that House prices will completely stagnate.

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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