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House Price Crash Forum

US but relevant - Millennial Home Ownership Shrinks as Student Debt Grows


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HOLA441
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HOLA442

Sad thing is, US student debt is nothing compared to the UK.

I know the UK debt is not really debt but more a tax on future earnings.

There's something dammning about student debt - a lot of young kids, taking on eye wateringdebt for courses that will turn out to be useless for a large percetnage, keeping a lot of 40+ lecturers in made up jobs.

The risk is borne by just the kid. It should be split between kid, uni and lecturers.

 

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HOLA443
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HOLA444

We haven't really seen the impact of it yet but will do in the next 5 years.

People will effectively be paying an additional 9% tax. A higher rate tax payer will be paying 51% of their salary in tax, ni and student loan fees.Heck even a basic rate payer will be on 41% tax above £21k!

Doesn't leave much left to pay rent and save for a deposit does it?

Still if they didn't buy phones and coffee they could easily save up a 20% deposit in 6 months like people in the 1970s did.

 

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HOLA445
5 hours ago, Timak said:

We haven't really seen the impact of it yet but will do in the next 5 years.

Very true, only the latest graduates have the largest (effective additional tax rate for life) loans.  Assuming that most people take a few years to save for a deposit anyway, the largest impact is still few years away.  However, with 9% additional tax, they may not even be able to pay rent, never mind being able to save for a deposit.

Something has got to give: either university attendance will drop significantly or we'll effectively end up with universal basic income as all graduates will need benefits just to survive and pay back their massive loans

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HOLA446
14 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Very true, only the latest graduates have the largest (effective additional tax rate for life) loans.  Assuming that most people take a few years to save for a deposit anyway, the largest impact is still few years away.  However, with 9% additional tax, they may not even be able to pay rent, never mind being able to save for a deposit.

Something has got to give: either university attendance will drop significantly or we'll effectively end up with universal basic income as all graduates will need benefits just to survive and pay back their massive loans

Just did the Student Loan Repayment Calculator. 

If you do a 3 year course and borrow the £5.5k each year for living expenses (which everyone will have to do without parental help) AND start on £25k (which seems optimistic) you will be paying back £68k over the next 27 years.

Do a 4 year course and it will be £81k to repay with the rest written off as you won't earn enough to repay it even with the very generous wage inflation the calculator predicts!

Amazing sums of debt at the start of your working life. 

 

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HOLA447

I have a sneaky feeling that when historians look back, they will see Student Debt as the point the West lost Capitalism - or at least lost in our current guise. (in the same way the USSR lost Communism by the end of the 80s)

Allowing the old to impose heavy taxes on the young to support their pensions and pampered way of living seems convenient now but probably spells disaster later.

High debt = sharing economy = lower-cost living = debt never repaid = also never having a house/pension = radically different model develops?

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HOLA448
19 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Very true, only the latest graduates have the largest (effective additional tax rate for life) loans.  Assuming that most people take a few years to save for a deposit anyway, the largest impact is still few years away.  However, with 9% additional tax, they may not even be able to pay rent, never mind being able to save for a deposit.

Something has got to give: either university attendance will drop significantly or we'll effectively end up with universal basic income as all graduates will need benefits just to survive and pay back their massive loans

4 words: Central Bank balance sheet

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