Predictions For 2013 For Northern Ireland Housing.

[long time lurking]

Well I'll stick my neck out.

1. House prices down by at least another 10% by the end of the year.

2. Estate agents start to close outlying branches

3.Rents stay much the same as this year.

4. More trolls will join the forum in their spare time from their day job to tell us that there has never been a better time to buy.

5.I might buy if I see value in the middle market.

I think I would agree with the above for NI but for England/Wales/Scotland it will be true for patches ie: the north the midlands most of Wales and large parts of Scotland

But on the whole UK = Japan until/if they have there hands forced, then things could get very interesting but until that happens it will be more can kicking and smoke n mirrors IMO

[Sure thing!]

Well I'll stick my neck out.

1. House prices down by at least another 10% by the end of the year.

2. Estate agents start to close outlying branches

3.Rents stay much the same as this year.

4. More trolls will join the forum in their spare time from their day job to tell us that there has never been a better time to buy.

5.I might buy if I see value in the middle market.

Sining from the same hymn sheet. 5. has to be done here so hoping value is to be had and people wise up a bit, going to start putting offers in early new year. I'm always whinging about middle market but then thats my main problem here and time's running out.

On 4. In some locations and housing types I'd say without a wider UK crash buying now will not cause any harm and could even be a good idea. Awaiting bricks for being the first troll

[thedarknorth]

West of the Bann (and probably inside too) I predict that lots of Zombie households and buy to let people will be in Bankruptcy this year. Watch the lists at the High Court and the media releases from CAB to judge the numbers as these will all be additional houses for the market.

People do know just how far back their investments have fallen and how hard it is to get back out of the hole they are in - it requires a 100% + rise in house prices just to cover the mortgage liability for anything from approx '05-'08 I think.

Those with IO mortgages will get increasingly realistic about the future and be wondering why bother struggling to pay off interest only mortgages on properties. I know anecdotally of a few who have to top up the rent they receive to cover the IO mortgage and are now seeing this as unsustainable given the time that has elapsed on the mortgage without any of the capital being repaid and the liklihood that even if they did now attempt to cover the mortgage capital the only possibility that the house will rise to that value is if sterling is thrashed.

These properties only have rental value as determined by the income from housing benefit which due to laws of unintended circumstances set the floor for all rents in the UK, particularly rural NI where oversupply of housing mean that a private renter could negotiate a great deal on rent if it wasn't for the generous rates paid in Housing Benefits - which landlords understandably hold out for.

An other anecdote out west is that ex local authority terraced houses in good estates are now more desirable than the bubble houses for the shameless crowd because they are considered cheaper to heat and have fireplaces.

Ironically in NI the buy to letters in the worst position are the public sector employees and professionals (i.e lawyers/doctors/accountants) for who going bankrupt is not an option as I think they simply can't when they have a guaranteed income for the attachment of earning in the case of public sector employees and their professional bodies don't allow the professions, I think.

I predict;

1) Our elected reps to come up with several silly plans specific to NI re universal credit which will really be to do with local property lobby groups and not succeed anyway.

2). Loads of Bulgarians and Romanians to descend on the UK and this to be deemed just too high a price to pay for the Common Agricultural Policy and globalism - resulting in an unsettling UK/Europe wide debate on the EU.

3) Exponential growth in High Court Bankruptcy hearings in NI.

4). Increased brain/skills drain particularly from West of the Bann to Australia/Canada/NZ and London.

5). Increased social unrest in NI.

6). Structural problems in the UK economy to become increasingly tackled by the tories out of necessity with NI dealing with unintended consequences of reduced public sector expenditure.

7) House prices to flatline at the point were Housing Benefit Payments provide the floor.

8) Ulster to win the Heinekin Cup.

[Shotoflight]

Economic outlook for 2013: The Spreadsheet recovery

http://www.jprni.com/newswire/story/312

This means that 2013 will see what could be described as an on-going ‘human recession’, despite the improvements on the GDP spreadsheet, with unemployment continuing to rise, potentially peaking at about 10% by the end of the year. (Though much of this increase will result from changes in welfare benefits rather than job losses.)

This ‘human recession’ will also not be confined to the unemployed. Those in employment will continue to experience a decline in their standard of living. Inflation (CPI) is expected to remain above the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) 2% target throughout 2013. With average earnings rising by less, the squeeze on household incomes will continue. Despite inflation being above target, Bank Rate (the Bank of England’s key interest rate) will remain at record lows in 2013 and maybe 2014 too (it is currently 0.5%). This inaction by the MPC on Bank Rate will be welcomed by those in the local housing market, which will mark a sixth year of falling house prices (albeit relatively modest) in 2013.

[Belfast Boy]

Obvious prediction - the Nationwide average for Northern Ireland drops below £100k this year.

Sticking my neck out - according to the Nationwide data, house prices here peaked on Q3 2007 £227970. My prediction - 7 years after the peak - Nationwide Q3 2014 below £91k. That is a fall of just over £13k in the next 7 reports.

[Sour Mash]

Obvious prediction - the Nationwide average for Northern Ireland drops below £100k this year.

Sticking my neck out - according to the Nationwide data, house prices here peaked on Q3 2007 £227970. My prediction - 7 years after the peak - Nationwide Q3 2014 below £91k. That is a fall of just over £13k in the next 7 reports.

I wonder how many actually bought during the 'crazy time' and now face long term negative equity? Must be quite a few. That's also a massive problem brewing for whenever interest rates start to rise again.

[Belfast Boy]

I wonder how many actually bought during the 'crazy time' and now face long term negative equity? Must be quite a few. That's also a massive problem brewing for whenever interest rates start to rise again.

Depends on how much they stretched themselves.

[headmelter]

Bottom end down 5-10%

middle rung to fall 10-20%

Top rung down 15-25%

This time next year I could be a bull.

Sentiment is low and maybe a time to 'invest'.

Btw : HAPPY NEW YEAR !

Edited January 3, 2013 by headmelter

[Belfast Boy]

This time next year I could be a bull.

At the end of next year, I might join you ... if prices keep falling they way they have been falling.

However, I would like to see some real action on the deficit and national debt. Though any real action they take to reduce either will mean lower government spending resulting in lower average incomes and therefore lower house prices. Catch 22!

I think the key to any prediction is quantitative easing. When will the BoE be forced to stop printing?

[Shotoflight]

Well I'll stick my neck out.

1. House prices down by at least another 10% by the end of the year.

2. Estate agents start to close outlying branches

3.Rents stay much the same as this year.

4. More trolls will join the forum in their spare time from their day job to tell us that there has never been a better time to buy.

5.I might buy if I see value in the middle market.

RPPI to include auction sales putting further pressure on the average house price.

Capital Value asking prices seen to be aspirational and over optimistic. Slipping into 2003 prices and beyond.

If sales rise (perhaps not) and mid market joins the party (perhaps so), UUJ average will fall - only good for headlines however as most now disregard it (except contributors, advertisers/sponsors and publishers)

Co-ownership, auctions and cash sales continue to prop up the numbers sold

In spite of massive public funding, city of culture, G8, police & fire games, (who ever heard of them?) to have limited regional economic impact beyond pubs, hotels, b&b and taxis. Will not make up for Titanic/Golf 'boost' this year.

Invest NI to continue pumping millions into 'potential' jobs. Lots of previous 'potential' jobs to disappear.

Banks left with no option but to foreclose more aggressively - increase in debt orders & bankruptcies as debtors find no light at the end of the tunnel

Further tight austerity budget in March with a disproportionate impact on NI compounding current welfare cuts, public sector cuts, pay freezes, increased pension contributions, increasing unemployment, bedroom tax, child benefit cuts. Vehicle tax to rise due to reducing income (lower emission cars escaping tax and postponement of fuel tax rise escalator)

Inflation to outstrip wages, public transport to increase above inflation, further political unrest

VIs and ill informed commentators to continue calling the bottom, affordability, value. Bottom called "because they can't go any lower" and for no other reason

Rents to stabilise or reduce - more supply, reduced HB and ability to pay, landlords getting twitchy

Those using savings to get by run out of ammo, appetite for debt still reduces, confidence and sentiment remain low or go lower

Another (at least one) large private sector employer to fall over or withdraw from NI - retail to continue it's downward trajectory

And yes, RPPI falls of less than 10% in the next 12 months would be a disappointment. Below 10% only likely in my opinion if the market freezes altogether.

A further 10% or more drop next year is a big ask but then the UUJ average price of £140k with salaries (for those in employment) averaging £21k really is asking for it. I hope they get it, and the rest.

Happy (and more importantly- healthy) New Year

Edited January 3, 2013 by Shotoflight

[Shotoflight]

Skipton throws in the towel

Skipton BS halts new lending in Northern Ireland

http://m.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/mortgage-solutions/news/2233918/skipton-bs-halts-new-lending-in-northern-ireland#.UOk0VIbP-_E.twitter

Skipton has blamed "low demand" on its decision to pull out of new lending in Northern Ireland from 2 January.

[BelfastVI]

RPPI to include auction sales putting further pressure on the average house price.

Rents to stabilise or reduce - more supply, reduced HB and ability to pay, landlords getting twitchy

And yes, RPPI falls of less than 10% in the next 12 months would be a disappointment. Below 10% only likely in my opinion if the market freezes altogether.

I understood the RPPI report already included auction sales as they too have to be recorded in Land Registry.

Can you explain the 'more supply' in the rental market.

If prices continue to fall at the same rate as they did over 2012 then 2013 will show a 5 to 6% drop (Using the RPPI)

[Shotoflight]

I understood the RPPI report already included auction sales as they too have to be recorded in Land Registry.

Can you explain the 'more supply' in the rental market.

If prices continue to fall at the same rate as they did over 2012 then 2013 will show a 5 to 6% drop (Using the RPPI)

BVI - you are correct. I misspoke, as Hilary Clinton once said. My prediction is for RPPI to quantify Auctions & Reposessions in future reports (as they are already included). I feel that this information, allied to the no. of co-ownership sales (numbers sourced elsewhere at 450 pa - did I read a 600 target somewhere?) would have a negative effect in terms of illuminating the state of the 'market', confidence, sentiment and hence prices - at the margins. Guesswork of course. See exchange below.

Can you advise what number/% of auction sales and reposessions (individually, together or both) are included in your quarterly stats - Q1 2012. Will you extrapolate this info in your next report?

"Our sales data are sourced from Land Transaction returns which are used by solicitors to notify HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) of the details of taxable transactions. HMRC do not collect information on how the property was sold, therefore it is not possible for us to identify if the sale took place at auction or if the property is sold following a repossession. The sales are included in our statistics as they are reported to HMRC, however we cannot quantify them. We are conscious that information on auctions and repossessions would be beneficial and we are investigating how to identify such sales and perhaps in the future we will be in a position to publish the numbers/percentages".

On rental property I am still seeing lots of accidental LLs not willing to sell at market value. I am sure a lot of the cash and auction sales are investors at the lower end of prices (savings continue to be trashed) and I know of developers renting in nearby developments because they can't/won't sell. One went bust however and sales went through very quickly when the administrator took over and shaved prices substantially.

Surely many apartments must be in the Private Rented sector either intentionally or as a last resort and many in limbo with court cases to work through. NAMA will have properties to release (a small proportion granted but will add to sales & rentals). I also feel more students will be staying at home and there will be less immigration freeing up capacity. Increased capacity will stabilise or reduce rents and of course reduced HB will not, in my opinion, put upward pressure on Private Sector rents. Again, pure guesswork, but the thread is about predictions after all. Happy to hear contra arguments on any of the above.

NISRA census recently stated private rentals had more than doubled in % terms over the past 10 yrs from about 6% to 13.5% and I see no reason for this trend to stop in the near term so in theory it should be getting more competitive, if not efficient.

[BelfastVI]

On rental property I am still seeing lots of accidental LLs not willing to sell at market value. I am sure a lot of the cash and auction sales are investors at the lower end of prices (savings continue to be trashed) and I know of developers renting in nearby developments because they can't/won't sell. One went bust however and sales went through very quickly when the administrator took over and shaved prices substantially.

Surely many apartments must be in the Private Rented sector either intentionally or as a last resort and many in limbo with court cases to work through. NAMA will have properties to release (a small proportion granted but will add to sales & rentals). I also feel more students will be staying at home and there will be less immigration freeing up capacity. Increased capacity will stabilise or reduce rents and of course reduced HB will not, in my opinion, put upward pressure on Private Sector rents. Again, pure guesswork, but the thread is about predictions after all. Happy to hear contra arguments on any of the above.

NISRA census recently stated private rentals had more than doubled in % terms over the past 10 yrs from about 6% to 13.5% and I see no reason for this trend to stop in the near term so in theory it should be getting more competitive, if not efficient.

Thanks for clearing up the auctions data.

I like your argument on the increase in rental properties.

I agree there are alot of people out there. Call them accidental LL's who would like to sell their property and may well be forced into doing so at prices they dont like.

However, for an increase in the rental property supply to take place houses that were previously empty need to become available for rent. Most of the people out there with two or more houses, and in distress have their houses rented. It is very easy to get a tenant at the moment.I know there was all that nonsense about 5,000 empty houses but Joe Fay from HINE put an end to all that in one of his quarterly reports. Anyone who has stock capable of renting is doing just that.

Builders are simply not building houses they cant sell. if they have two or three finished houses and they cant sell them they simply stop so there is no build up of vacant stock in the new build sector. There is a residue of apartments from 2007 &8. my argument on that is they are obviously not wanted in the owner occupier sector or the rental sector. they have been available for rent or buy for some years and many will end up in the social housing sector which we are led to believe there are 30,000 to 40,000 on the waiting list. Whether they want to move to a free 'luxury apartment' is quite another argument.

I agree with your point on student housing. yes I agree those who can commute will do so and there will therefore be less of a take up of the rooms. On top of that there are a rath of incoming and current regulations that make owning a house of multi occupation quite a pain. you may well see some of the houses in the holy land returning to private sector, single family rent. single family wanting to rent a house in the holy land is another matter but graduates, moving into work (if they are lucky enough) may well take up this and therefore free up other housing. You could well, over the next few years see perhaps 100 or more houses changing use as a result of the new regs and the lack of demand.

However the problem still exists and this has been highlighted by the recent cences that we are living in a growing population and a population with smaller household size.

Roughly 25,000 people are born in NI each year

Roughly 15,000 people die in NI each year.

the population increases by 10,000 every year. that is a house hold formation of between 4,000 and 6,000 each and every year.

This increase has been happening allowing for emigration. However emigration could and probably will increase.

The other problem is we are continually living longer and worse still females are out living males by a bigger margin. the problem with that is it, every year increases the amount of single occupier households which therefore erodes the average household figure.

There are currently around 700,000 occupied houses in NI and a large percentage of them are pre 1970, which is a problem.

Even taking a 100 year lifespan leaves a replacement build rate of 7,000 per year. On top of house hold formation figures this combined build rate has simply not been happing apart from 2005/06. And in those years, as we now know many of the housing units constructed were simply the wrong type in the wrong place (high rise apartments).

Many houses with good care will last well over 100 years and there are fine examples of particularly stone structures which will survive another 100 years. however alot of the pre and post ww2 housing stock will not and large parts of particularly east and shout Belfast (the village etc) simply need rebuilt. A fortune has been spent of the Housing Executives ageing 90,000 stock to keep them up to decent home standards. they may well discover, in the proposed sell off that this may have been wasted.

Government's own studies, via the RPA show that we need 10,000 to 12,000 new housing units each year. As I said we rarely do that and for the last 5 years have only been providing a quarter of that. At some stage that is going to catch up and as we see the waiting list for social housing growing each year we can see that it is perhaps happening. We have been lucky in a way with the over supply that existed in the rental market in 2007 as the demand for housing has moved dramatically from the owning to renting. I personally don't see that shifting dramatically any time soon. I have a few rental houses (all bought pre 2005). usually a tenant stays 3-5 years or therabouts so I rarely have to bother. hover I recently asked an agent to get a tenant. without putting up a board or ad he phoned me within hours to say he had 7 people who would take it. I imagine he done it via a mailing, email list. He asked me how much I wanted!

I dont believe rents will rise dramatically (in the one I mention I am getting £475 a month up from £430). As someone recently said you cant borrow to rent so it will be closer linked to actual earnings. However what is happening is people are being forced to rent houses, or rent in a area they wouldn't previously have taken up.

The walefare reform changes will be interesting. I attended a talk on this very matter. it is aimed at 'empty bedrooms'. and could be described as a empty bedroom tax. Therefore is a single person with a kid was renting a 3 bed house (which is the most economical build type per bed)then their rent allowance will be cut as all the rooms are not being used. This will cause a bit of moving about and, in both theory and pratice should free up more 3 and 4 bedroom houses to the private sector. However, whether the private sector is willing to take up those houses in those areas will remain to be seen. Ironically it could increase the demand for two bedroom houses and heavens forbid actually make the unsellable single bed unit desirable. It could actually force HA's to build the most uneconomical housing unit of all - the single bed house. apparently 40% of the people on the housing list are single men.

All this will be plaid out over the next few years and the results will be very interesting.

Thankfully they avoided the disaster area of stopping direct payments to LandLords.

Sorry for the long reply but I was also answering a previous comment about there being no under-supply of housing stock.

[Shotoflight]

Thanks for clearing up the auctions data.

However the problem still exists and this has been highlighted by the recent cences that we are living in a growing population and a population with smaller household size.

The walefare reform changes will be interesting. I attended a talk on this very matter. it is aimed at 'empty bedrooms'. and could be described as a empty bedroom tax. Therefore is a single person with a kid was renting a 3 bed house (which is the most economical build type per bed)then their rent allowance will be cut as all the rooms are not being used. This will cause a bit of moving about and, in both theory and pratice should free up more 3 and 4 bedroom houses to the private sector. However, whether the private sector is willing to take up those houses in those areas will remain to be seen. Ironically it could increase the demand for two bedroom houses and heavens forbid actually make the unsellable single bed unit desirable. It could actually force HA's to build the most uneconomical housing unit of all - the single bed house. apparently 40% of the people on the housing list are single men.

All this will be plaid out over the next few years and the results will be very interesting.

Thankfully they avoided the disaster area of stopping direct payments to LandLords.

Sorry for the long reply but I was also answering a previous comment about there being no under-supply of housing stock.

BVI - Thanks for taking the time to post a considered & detailed response. Many angles to this issue - it will be an interesting year.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Shotoflight

[BelfastVI]

I'm not being facetious here but could the councils not buy up the HMOs and use them as single person hostels?

In theory yes.

The problem we have here is we offer everyone something like 5 refusals. Most people prefer a place of their own and are likely to refuse this. If one fell upon hard times and had to avail of the safety net you could see how moving in with 4 or 5 other strangers would not appeal. Better than sleeping on the street but it would be acceptable to the good folk here.

[BelfastVI]

I see no problem living in a situation where you are in an ensuite room large enough to have a bed, chair, furniture and a small kitchen. That was what I meant. My son stayed in rooms like this while abroad.

Don't worry, I am in agreement with you.

[BelfastVI]

Bump

[BelfastVI]

I see the ONS is now reporting Year on Year growth for NI of 4.8%

ONS Link

[Shotoflight]

Funny, UUJ reports prices have fallen from £138,966 (Q3 2012) to £129,777 (Q3 2013) - a 6.6% drop

http://www.rpp.ulster.ac.uk/housing-archive.php

I suppose it just depends on your preference?????????

And I predict further selective quoting of statistics in 2014.

Edited December 17, 2013 by Shotoflight

[BelfastVI]

Funny, UUJ reports prices have fallen from £138,966 (Q3 2012) to £129,777 (Q3 2013) - a 6.6% drop

http://www.rpp.ulster.ac.uk/housing-archive.php

I suppose it just depends on your preference?????????

And I predict further selective quoting of statistics in 2014.

I have to laugh out loud at that one. I never thought I would see you rallying to the UUJ report. Any time I refer to it I am attached for doing so. There is nothing selective about quoting the year on year figure from the ONS, NIRPPI, nationwide or any other report.

I think we all agree that we need to look at a balance of all the reports and no single result in isolation really indicates anything. You need to see the balance of reports showing a somewhat similar picture over a 2 or 3 quarter peri on to draw to any conclusion.

I don't agree that I was being selective at all. The ONS report was released today. It give basic year on year figures for the region. The NI figure is the one relevant to this forum today.

[Shotoflight]

I have to laugh out loud at that one. I never thought I would see you rallying to the UUJ report. Any time I refer to it I am attached for doing so. There is nothing selective about quoting the year on year figure from the ONS, NIRPPI, nationwide or any other report.

I think we all agree that we need to look at a balance of all the reports and no single result in isolation really indicates anything. You need to see the balance of reports showing a somewhat similar picture over a 2 or 3 quarter peri on to draw to any conclusion.

I don't agree that I was being selective at all. The ONS report was released today. It give basic year on year figures for the region. The NI figure is the one relevant to this forum today.

My settled view is the RPPI. I've made that clear. I pay little heed to the UUJ survey except to prove the point that the stats are many and varied.

Oh, and the selective use of stats and quotes was a general comment, not meant to be specific to yourself, as I can be quite selective (often). and not meant to be negative - its all cut'n'thrust. Glad you got a laugh tho!!

I'd happily see the UUJ survey vanish for all the worth of it, and the RICS for that matter. Not sure about the ONS validity (whats covered/whats not) but have quoted it before myself.

Edited December 17, 2013 by Shotoflight

[Sure thing!]

Sining from the same hymn sheet. 5. has to be done here so hoping value is to be had and people wise up a bit, going to start putting offers in early new year. I'm always whinging about middle market but then thats my main problem here and time's running out.

On 4. In some locations and housing types I'd say without a wider UK crash buying now will not cause any harm and could even be a good idea. Awaiting bricks for being the first troll

Might as well reply to myself! Happy enough with saying buying some areas/types of houses wouldn't be a bad idea, had we sold our house later this year we would certainly have received more. Without the withdrawal of co-ownership theres going to be no lack of people at that level, all our offers were from people having to use it.

Just as last year the houses I'm interested in are mostly not selling. Did put some offers in and despite being told they would never reduce the price they have all come back trying lower prices, none have changed their asking prices though.

Renting isn't so bad though, had some expensive repairs here and they didn't cost me a penny

[Shotoflight]

I have to laugh out loud at that one. I never thought I would see you rallying to the UUJ report. Any time I refer to it I am attached for doing so. There is nothing selective about quoting the year on year figure from the ONS, NIRPPI, nationwide or any other report.

I think we all agree that we need to look at a balance of all the reports and no single result in isolation really indicates anything. You need to see the balance of reports showing a somewhat similar picture over a 2 or 3 quarter peri on to draw to any conclusion.

I don't agree that I was being selective at all. The ONS report was released today. It give basic year on year figures for the region. The NI figure is the one relevant to this forum today.

Another one to make you chuckle, BVI?

Northern Ireland house prices to rise by 4%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-25441153

House Prices will grow by 4% in Northern Ireland in the next year, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has predicted.

In spite of the increase, the organisation places Northern Ireland at the bottom of the league table for price growth in the United Kingdom.

Overall, prices in the UK are expected to see a rise of 8% over the coming year.

RICS said Northern Ireland house prices were now 54% below their peak.

[BelfastVI]

Another one to make you chuckle, BVI?

Northern Ireland house prices to rise by 4%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-25441153

House Prices will grow by 4% in Northern Ireland in the next year, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has predicted.

In spite of the increase, the organisation places Northern Ireland at the bottom of the league table for price growth in the United Kingdom.

Overall, prices in the UK are expected to see a rise of 8% over the coming year.

RICS said Northern Ireland house prices were now 54% below their peak.

I can recall them saying something similar in early 2007.

But that aside this is, I think the first time they have said anything like that since.