Oxford

[popeye]

And how many pubs can you enter at five pm - Gardener's, North Parade - to surprise a dozing, solitary barman who hasn't seen a customer since lunch.

Time slips and wallows in the northern avenues.

Thanks for the tip about the Gardener's Arms! Gratefully received!

[FamilyGuy]

I suppose one of the attractions for the richer commuter was always the private schools. Be interesting to see if that's still a factor, as there seems to be a lot of articles about children of city types being withdrawn from school after parents made redundant, and those expensive fees cannot be met. Especially as they said the fees have risen 40% in the last 5 years.

On a slightly different topic, I noticed Rectory homes were building a bunch of 'Luxury 5 bed executive homes', just off the peartree roundabout in Wolvercote. I wonder how much these will come on the market for, and what sort of incentives will be given?...

[lemonsorbet]

They announced on Fox FM the other day that the average female salary in Oxfordshire is £27k, and the average male salary is £37k, so working on averages, then the average couple could potentially earn £64k, so at 3.5x joint salary is £224k, and a 15% deposit, so £33k, so average (3 bed) houses should be around the £260 mark??

There have been some big house price drops in SOME areas, like Blackbird Leys, Barton, some bits of Cowley and Headington, and also some drops in very expensive properties of over £400k, but I still see very few drops in what I'd consider nice streets.

I spotted a couple of repos though, on Wilkinson Road (converted flats), and a detached house on Cowley Rd (Littlemore).

Now interest rates are dropping, hopefully rents will stay stable and not rise, but then on the other hand, this will mean that landlords will more likely to be making a profit as they'll be paying less for their mortgage, so perhaps less likely to sell, and thus less houses for sale.

The % price drops across britain seem big, but statisticians will tell you that although they SEEM big, they're only based on a TINY amount of sales, alot of which are reposessions, so it's not really an accurate representation of prices.

Oxford prices may be dropping, but it only seems to be in less desirable areas, and prices that were very expensive.

[Wad]

I tend to agree with the earlier posts today about house prices beginning to drop in Oxford.

Consider this. I offered to rent a Blenheim 4 bed house on Waterways back in September 2003 and offered full asking price of £2200 per calender month

There is one up for rent now at £2300 per calender month and may go for less. Rents have just not gone up at all in North Oxford over the last 5 years.

However, two fully qualified GPs could not now buy a house together in Summertown on one of the side roads without stretching themselves to a silly multiple because the price of houses has risen so much.

Sure the local schools are good but people have stretched themselves to breaking point to buy there far beyond what the rental market suggests they can afford. Local wages are just not that high and without London money the market could revert to what local pay levels can support and that would be catastrophic.

As a student I lived in a villa in Parktown and also the northern end of Woodstock Road. People thought that Summertown was almost slum area back then. Look at it now - prices over £1 miilion are not uncommon. Academics and doctors could afford to buy in north Oxford back then - but not now. Surely prices have to revert to what the local economy can support just like it did in the past.

[Basildon Bond]

They announced on Fox FM the other day that the average female salary in Oxfordshire is £27k, and the average male salary is £37k, so working on averages, then the average couple could potentially earn £64k, so at 3.5x joint salary is £224k, and a 15% deposit, so £33k, so average (3 bed) houses should be around the £260 mark??

those figures (27, 37K) sound like total ****** to me. I wouldn't trust them any more than I would be likely to listen to the low brow cheesy pap that they polute the airwaves with.

Do you have any idea what their information source was, LemonSorbet? At the very least this must be an arithmetic mean calculation not a median.

I now we have more than our fair share of city types but there are still a lot of poor people in oxfordshire and they would have to drag the figure lower than that. Or maybe I'm just feeling bitter cos me an' the misses are on the sub-average end of this county's earning distribution.

[popeye]

those figures (27, 37K) sound like total ****** to me. I wouldn't trust them any more than I would be likely to listen to the low brow cheesy pap that they polute the airwaves with.

Do you have any idea what their information source was, LemonSorbet? At the very least this must be an arithmetic mean calculation not a median.

I now we have more than our fair share of city types but there are still a lot of poor people in oxfordshire and they would have to drag the figure lower than that. Or maybe I'm just feeling bitter cos me an' the misses are on the sub-average end of this county's earning distribution.

Availability of mortgages will prrobably revert to a factor that obtained before silly loans became commonplace: the security of the applicant's employment, not just the actual amount, and this will favour Oxford's big professional class. Plus many of them can put down extremely hefty chunks of deposit because of family help. Brookes has plenty of money - they have a huge rebuild planned in Headington which looks like going ahead.

Not sure where Waterways is, but is it on the flood plain?

[popeye]

those figures (27, 37K) sound like total ****** to me. I wouldn't trust them any more than I would be likely to listen to the low brow cheesy pap that they polute the airwaves with.

Do you have any idea what their information source was, LemonSorbet? At the very least this must be an arithmetic mean calculation not a median.

I now we have more than our fair share of city types but there are still a lot of poor people in oxfordshire and they would have to drag the figure lower than that. Or maybe I'm just feeling bitter cos me an' the misses are on the sub-average end of this county's earning distribution.

Just to add - there is a very interesting similar discussion about incomes/mortgages popping up on the Cambridge site at the moment. Also, a fascinating comment that one house is listed on Rightmove by 9 different agents. This sort of thing might really b*g*gar up the statistics of properties on t he market but I don't see any way it could come to light other than through local knowledge.

[neiloxford]

There is a long long way for house prices to crash

www.ourproperty.co.uk now foes back to 1995

Just amazing...

Feel free to post big jumps...

The house I was renting before it got sold....

2007-07-27 75 Hurst Street, Oxford, Oxfordshire, OX4 1HA £415,000

1996-06-14 75 Hurst Street, Oxford, Oxfordshire, OX4 1HA £115,000

All I can say is WOW WOW WOW

And to add insult to injury the landlord lived in Spain but had all bills sent there so Tax man thinks that was her primary residence....so £300,00 tax free !

[thehowler]

Here's one I spotted in the property section of the Oxford Times:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-114...p;mam_disp=true

550K. These were going for around 700k last year. A lure or a lemon - it's still priced to sell. And there's a swell of houses in OX2 sub-500k on rightmove. One of the Hayfield Rd cottages is down to 295 with Savills.

If banks have returned to the old lending multiples I guess the houses will have to adjust back to the old prices. Can it really be that simple?

Ox Times property section was down to one paper, not two as usual. No JC Penny ad - nor last week.

[Basildon Bond]

If banks have returned to the old lending multiples I guess the houses will have to adjust back to the old prices. Can it really be that simple?

I have never heard a good argument as to why it isn't so simple.

Assuming that one accepts that lending multiples were the principal mover driving house prices to the stupid levels they have reached in oxford, it stands to reason that they will be the same driver of prices on the way down.

Unless average Oxford salaries have increased substantially since the level they were in the late nineties (inflation adjusted. , I see no reason why they should not now reduce to late 1990s levels.

I could be wrong, but I don't see what economic force is going to prevent them from falling back to these kinds of levels?

e.g. commuters to London - are there really substantially more of these than there were 8 - 10 years ago?

[Basildon Bond]

BTW why are you a 'neither'- the evidence you present sounds fairly bearish to me?

[popeye]

e.g. commuters to London - are there really substantially more of these than there were 8 - 10 years ago?

I don't know the statistical evidence (the bus companies would have some, presumably) but the growth of the 'Park and Ride' on the London road is not due just to people coming into Oxford. There really are an enormous number who commute to London. Here where we live just off the London rd in Headington, commuting to London is quite common and there also people who work at Heathrow who can get the airport coaches here. This part of Oxford is becoming a big transport link. I would say there has been a major increase in commuting to London over the past five or six years and it shows no sign of stopping. The better the transport facitltiies, the more it increases. It may be that Oxford is splitting up into areas in a different way.

Memo: a standard semi 3 bedder semi here, small rooms, no improvements, asking price £300,000 a few months ago - new asking price, £250 000. But the first price was really unrealistic.

[pharm]

I don't know the statistical evidence (the bus companies would have some, presumably) but the growth of the 'Park and Ride' on the London road is not due just to people coming into Oxford. There really are an enormous number who commute to London. Here where we live just off the London rd in Headington, commuting to London is quite common and there also people who work at Heathrow who can get the airport coaches here. This part of Oxford is becoming a big transport link. I would say there has been a major increase in commuting to London over the past five or six years and it shows no sign of stopping. The better the transport facitltiies, the more it increases. It may be that Oxford is splitting up into areas in a different way.

Memo: a standard semi 3 bedder semi here, small rooms, no improvements, asking price £300,000 a few months ago - new asking price, £250 000. But the first price was really unrealistic.

In the short term, I'd expect those 'London' areas to get hammered: Rents are falling sharply in London itself & there's a tidal wave of redundancies coming in the financial sector (many 10,000s of high paying jobs => lots of knock on job losses). The net result will be that people will be able to live much closer in to work as housing costs fall. Commuting 1.5 hours each way from Oxford won't seem so tempting any more.

[popeye]

In the short term, I'd expect those 'London' areas to get hammered: Rents are falling sharply in London itself & there's a tidal wave of redundancies coming in the financial sector (many 10,000s of high paying jobs => lots of knock on job losses). The net result will be that people will be able to live much closer in to work as housing costs fall. Commuting 1.5 hours each way from Oxford won't seem so tempting any more.

I see it differently. yes, there will be big job losses everywhere. But people in the 'London commuter belt' areas of Oxford have two job markets to apply in.

[Basildon Bond]

I see it differently. yes, there will be big job losses everywhere. But people in the 'London commuter belt' areas of Oxford have two job markets to apply in.

Your argument seems to suggest that ressessions tend to lead to an increase in commuters, were as I suspect the opposite is the case.

Its quite possible that London jobs will be commanding lower wages than they do now.

If this happens the, not inconsiderable costs of commuting, may make it no longer viable to have a job in London and travel from somewhere as poorly connected to it as Oxford.

[popeye]

Your argument seems to suggest that ressessions tend to lead to an increase in commuters, were as I suspect the opposite is the case.

Its quite possible that London jobs will be commanding lower wages than they do now.

If this happens the, not inconsiderable costs of commuting, may make it no longer viable to have a job in London and travel from somewhere as poorly connected to it as Oxford.

Re the London connection - this is not poor now. I think you are a bit behind the times. It has improved enormously over the last couple of years because of roadworks, bus expansions, etc.. Six or more coaches an hour directly into central London or a drive of 50-80 mins if you insist on taking a car? The coaches offer good value for commuting tickets and you can even buy an Oyster on the Oxford Tube. Many Londoners find it more difficult to get into the city than do commuters from Oxford. It's not just about jobs, either. The new Westfield shopping centre in Shepherd's Bush is now virtually at the end of our road - the road being the A40, but the extra expense of getting there is countered by the greater range of goods and no parking problems. It's aboput the centre of gravity of people's lives shifting and the periphery broadening.

As for the broader question of whether recession leads to commuting, yes it does, as people have to broaden their net for finding work. There is a breaking point, obviously, at which they will relocate, but if their lives already have settled characteristics such as a house, family, pleasant living conditions, they will be very reluctant to do it..the people who do move about are usually the young, unattached, who have not put down roots and would not be int he housing market anyway.

[FamilyGuy]

Re the London connection - this is not poor now. I think you are a bit behind the times. It has improved enormously over the last couple of years because of roadworks, bus expansions, etc.. Six or more coaches an hour directly into central London or a drive of 50-80 mins if you insist on taking a car? The coaches offer good value for commuting tickets and you can even buy an Oyster on the Oxford Tube. Many Londoners find it more difficult to get into the city than do commuters from Oxford. It's not just about jobs, either. The new Westfield shopping centre in Shepherd's Bush is now virtually at the end of our road - the road being the A40, but the extra expense of getting there is countered by the greater range of goods and no parking problems. It's aboput the centre of gravity of people's lives shifting and the periphery broadening.

As for the broader question of whether recession leads to commuting, yes it does, as people have to broaden their net for finding work. There is a breaking point, obviously, at which they will relocate, but if their lives already have settled characteristics such as a house, family, pleasant living conditions, they will be very reluctant to do it..the people who do move about are usually the young, unattached, who have not put down roots and would not be int he housing market anyway.

I've done the commute - though it's been a good 7 years since I last did it. Pretty much tried all ways - driving, Oxford Tube and Airport bus (I was workig in both Richmond and Hounslow). Even though I was working West side of London, it would take at least 90 mins door to door. Commute expenses were nothing for me at the time - I was getting reimbursed. The main problem was the extra time involved, upto another half working day of commute each day. By the end of the week you were knackered. In the end i moved upto London... These days I would only consider commute as far as High Wycombe in the East. With a family, working in London everyday would just be too much time away. I know two people who commute into the city from Didcot every day - if you need to work in the city, then the train is the better option, unless you fancy 2 hours each way. Trouble is, tickets are 6000 a year...

I also wonder how much effect the housing associations buying up the crashing London flats cheap will have. If you're key worker or on a low wage, it's got to be a better bet to get a place in London then in Oxford. I would also say that the London jobe market is far worse than the Oxford job market at the moment

[popeye]

I've done the commute - though it's been a good 7 years since I last did it. Pretty much tried all ways - driving, Oxford Tube and Airport bus (I was workig in both Richmond and Hounslow). Even though I was working West side of London, it would take at least 90 mins door to door. Commute expenses were nothing for me at the time - I was getting reimbursed. The main problem was the extra time involved, upto another half working day of commute each day. By the end of the week you were knackered. In the end i moved upto London... These days I would only consider commute as far as High Wycombe in the East. With a family, working in London everyday would just be too much time away. I know two people who commute into the city from Didcot every day - if you need to work in the city, then the train is the better option, unless you fancy 2 hours each way. Trouble is, tickets are 6000 a year...

I also wonder how much effect the housing associations buying up the crashing London flats cheap will have. If you're key worker or on a low wage, it's got to be a better bet to get a place in London then in Oxford. I would also say that the London jobe market is far worse than the Oxford job market at the moment

A key factor in deciding to move would be how long people expect the recession to last. I reckon a hard commute might be considered OK for a year or so. After that, they might want to change their base. As for the job market, depends onwhat you do. Certainly for law, media, politics, teaching, opportunities are surely far greater in London. In fact for media, it's really the only market.

[quad]

Oxford also attracts many people to commute in from out lying villages and towns to work, as it has a varied, industries and colleges, providing more opertunities, than, said towns and villages, although the cost of living in some of these areas plus the costs involved with commuting to oxford, sometimes dont make sense, financially. although are often very plesant places to live, as a good enough reason to, endure the travel to oxford each day.

would personally like to see an improved job market, away from oxford into the local towns, as i can see many benifits for the business and the people who work in them and their customers.

this i consider a very important issue. as the town i live, seems very keen in providing new housing at the expense of business and industry, forcing larger numbers of people to commute each day, the negative impact on family life, of this extra time away from home cannot be good for the family.

also a negative impact on local business as, a large number of potential customers are not in the town each day.

enviromentally it does not make sense, for people to commute each day, due to poor planning, by the local council, and lack of political will locally to try to retain and increase the local job market, over the short term financial gain to be had, for building large housing estates on former, industrial sites.

back to houses proper. i have noticed a well loved local estate agent has closed its doors in witney, in the last week. they were very overpriced:)

[pharm]

90 minutes each way == f'ing insane if you ask me. It's something you do short term or if you have no other choice.

Popeye. Is there any economic change that would be bad for Oxford house prices in your view? It doesn't appear to make much difference what people point out, it's all positive in your view

[FamilyGuy]

A key factor in deciding to move would be how long people expect the recession to last. I reckon a hard commute might be considered OK for a year or so. After that, they might want to change their base. As for the job market, depends onwhat you do. Certainly for law, media, politics, teaching, opportunities are surely far greater in London. In fact for media, it's really the only market.

I wouldn't have thought law is doing too well at the moment. If you're going upto London you're going to be working for one of the big city law firms. I would have thought they would have been hit a bit - they rely mergers take over etc. Apart from the obvious bank work, I would have thought that sort of business activity would be a bit down now. Normal conveyancing, you would probably be working for a local law firm

I agree media would have more job opportunities in London, but politics and teaching? Local government and teaching you would qualify for key worker status, so I would have thought you would get a place in a council where you qualify, rather than occur extra time and expense of commuting from outside

[thehowler]

This place came on at well over a million a few weeks back.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-186...p;mam_disp=true

down into the 800s now. It's a wreck but the price drop must be pure pain for the vendors a few doors down, still holding at 925 even though they're in a much smaller house - two versus three storey.

Some tough calls to make for the agents in the coming weeks, chasing each other down. Steel your hearts you home brokers. Hearts as cold as a welldigger's a**.

Basildon Bond...I'm neither bull nor bear because I'm too old and I've been wrong too many times to be sure.

So many roads.

So many mistakes.

Oh, and don't forget about publishing in the what industry? discussion. I reckon print and local government are about the biggest local employers. Academic commuters are also on the rise, as the weary book-luggers hike to the capital's colleges.

[popeye]

90 minutes each way == f'ing insane if you ask me. It's something you do short term or if you have no other choice.

Popeye. Is there any economic change that would be bad for Oxford house prices in your view? It doesn't appear to make much difference what people point out, it's all positive in your view

The point is that RELATIVELY Oxford house prices will not see anything like the serious drop in most of the rest of the country. A bit of background: I come originally from South Wales (yes, have been told to go back there!) and in the Rhondda valley decent terraced houses, East Oxford type, can now be bought at auction - repos - £25,000, non-repos, £35-40,000. A couple of years ago they would have fetched £70 - 90,000. Of course prices are dropping here and will go a bit lower, but never to that extent, because Oxford does have a big fat cushion of wealth and jobs. I think there are a lot of people with an agenda at the back of their minds about their own personal buying opportunities and this colours their view: they are the optimists, hoping that prices here will tumble.

[Tiger Woods?]

And how many pubs can you enter at five pm - Gardener's, North Parade - to surprise a dozing, solitary barman who hasn't seen a customer since lunch.

Time slips and wallows in the northern avenues.

Thanks for the tip about the Gardener's Arms! Gratefully received!

Gotta be careful when arranging to meet...there are 2 Gardener's Arms in North Oxford.

[popeye]

Gotta be careful when arranging to meet...there are 2 Gardener's Arms in North Oxford.

Used to go to the one in Plantation Rd. - it was great. Is it still good?