Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About leemo

  • Rank
  1. Are we there yet? No. Mortage approvals are near a three year high. This indicates that HPI will be in positive territory in 6 months time. It takes a while for a crash to start -- stock for sale has to build up and stubborn vendors need to get the jitters. I'm quite confident there will be no crash for at least the next twelve months. And even after that there's little certainty in the outlook. A crash is predicated there being a bubble, but bubbles are inherently unpredicatable. You might be right that housing is in a bubble, but timing is everything. People on this board have been saying that the crash will start in 6 months since its inception several years ago! Some people who STRd in 2002 won't be able to buy back in at the price they sold even if there is a 40% crash. Bottom line: if you are waiting for a crash you don't know how long you are going to wait. You could be waiting ten years.
  2. You flipped a coin, you lost. You are a loser. (No perhaps about it )
  3. thank god my mortgage debt is in pounds not gold
  4. Well I was buying and have now bought and am quite pleased. I think the market's risen since I struck the deal last December, at least at the bottom end. That could be confirmation bias, but I don't think so. I can't see a comparable property on Rightmove for the same price now. I still think houses are overvalued but its hard to call when they will correct. In the meantime you're likely to loose out.
  5. Nuts those prices are I think the bottom end (<200k) of the Oxford market picked up end of last year, and am currently buying! Fewer and few propertites are available for sale. Sorry guys
  6. Oh dear. What are there demands? Wouldn't want a pay hike fuelling inflation now would we?
  7. OK. Lets suppose you buy a house for 100k with a 10k deposit. For the sake of argument and to make the calculation more easy you are on an interest only mortgage for the balance - 90k. Now lets say general inflation over ten years accumulates to 50% and house price inflation is 30% in nominal terms. So in real terms house prices fall by 20%. So after ten years the market value of your house is 130k and you decide to sell. You still have 90k equity to pay back to the bank. You walk away with 40k. So your 10k grew to 40k. Inflation was 50% so in real terms your 10k grew to only 40k/1.5=26.7k. But you still made a nice profit. Infact you got 26.7k/10k=267% return even though house prices fell in real terms! Neat trick eh? Well its all down to the 10x gearing which has its downsides too, but FTBs do tend to have high gearing. Capiche?
  8. Realistically, I think its quite likely us bears will be in limbo for a while now. The market is always quiet over Christmas. I think by about March/April things well be clearer. * How will Xmas treat the retailers? * Will there be a move in IRs? * Beginnings of a Spring Bounce or market set for a flat year?
  9. Whilst broad stability has been reached so far in the market, its far to early to say there wont be a crash. King knows this, but by talking the stability talk he hopes it will become a self fulfilling prophecy. He know's that there isn't room for another cut, if the market looks like it needs a boost.
  10. I agree things have picked up a bit; the market is quiet, rather than dead. Some of the better (in particular period) properties have been sold -- only having cut their asking prices though. I would still say there is a 'glut' of properties for sale. I sometime look at rental and there seems to be oversupply there too.
  11. The property I mentioned was had been on the market last year. At 210k. So asking dropped 5% in 1 year. Agree its still early days and whilst prices are off their peaks, they still are much higher than they were a few years ago. BTW. I've been plotting the amount of stock for sale less than 200k in OX4 according to rightmove. Whilst the trend was a gentle decline from around 150 in June to 120 in mid October, the trend has just been broken and we are back at 135. So although there is some bullish news around at the moment (eg increased approvals, haliwide reports) it seems the effect of this is to mainly bring the sellers out of the woodwork.
  12. Do you have some figures on stock:sales ratio then? If not, I have agree with CL much as it hurts to do so: mortgage approvals at 107k is a bullish indicator
  13. This is what my browser showed when I visited the telegraph site: Mwuhhhaahahahaha!
  14. FrozenOut OT: Where do you get the avatar from. Those cartoons are great.
  15. Not close at all. What with HPI down from 20% to 2%, GDP from 3% to 1.5%, unemployment ticking up and in my local area price falls of 5% or more from the peak and oodles of stock, I am sitting tight.
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.