U.k. House-Price Estimate Reaches Two-Year High In Sign Of Market Peaking

[Pent Up]

U.K. house prices increased to the highest in more than two years in October as the property market showed signs of peaking, research company Acadametrics Ltd. and LSL Property Services Plc said in an estimate released today.

The average price of a home in England and Wales climbed for a sixth month, gaining 0.3 percent to 224,709 pounds ($363,000), the highest since June 2008, the groups said in an e-mailed report today. Values rose 6.1 percent from a year earlier.

While U.K. economic growth has posted its strongest two consecutive quarters for a decade, consumer confidence fell to a 19-month low in October as the prospect of budget cuts loomed, Nationwide Building Society said today. The housing market has been “subdued” since August with “signs of a weakening in demand” in recent months, the Bank of England said on Nov. 10.

“Some, but not all, of the regions in England and Wales will be showing falling prices on an annual basis by the end of the year,” Acadametrics Chairman Peter Williams said in the report. “Along with relatively flat prices, we continue to have a much reduced volume of transactions. This is indicative of a slow market, reflecting the range of negative factors which both buyers and sellers are facing.”

Data are painting a mixed picture about the health of the country’s property market. While Lloyds Banking Group Plc’s Halifax unit said on Nov. 4 that home values climbed 1.8 percent last month, erasing almost half a record drop posted in September, Nationwide said that they fell to an eight-month low.

Property Transactions

Acadametrics said the gain in house prices last month came as the number of transactions rose 2 percent from September. That’s still a drop of 7.3 percent from a year earlier.

“Given that the market is bouncing along the bottom, we should not be surprised to note a degree of variation in the reporting from different indices,” Williams said.

Acadametrics combines initial housing transaction data from the U.K. Land Registry and results from other price measures to produce an estimate for the most recent month for its index. That number is then revised in following months.

A separate report by the National Association of Estate Agents today showed the number of people looking for a home “significantly decreased” in October. The total of house hunters registered per real-estate agent branch decreased on average to 218 in October from 247 the previous month, the group said in an e-mailed statement. That was the lowest since December 2008.

I'm confused, it says peak prices but then says the Market is bouncing along the bottom?

Also if this uses land registry data then why is their average £60k higher than land registry average?

[Captain Cavey]

I'm confused, it says peak prices but then says the Market is bouncing along the bottom?

Also if this uses land registry data then why is their average £60k higher than land registry average?

snip ........said in an e-mailed report today

Nothing to worry about – it looks like Sibley has created a false email address and is on a spamming attack to convince the press that HPI lives

oh & btw - linky?

[Pent Up]

Nothing to worry about – it looks like Sibley has created a false email address and is on a spamming attack to convince the press that HPI lives

oh & btw - linky?

Aplologies. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-12/u-k-acadametrics-house-price-estimate-rises-to-two-year-high.html

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

I'm confused, it says peak prices but then says the Market is bouncing along the bottom?

Also if this uses land registry data then why is their average £60k higher than land registry average?

Double think.

[Pent Up]

http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/LSL%20Acad%20HPI%20News%20Release%20October%2010.pdf

Link to the report

[Realistbear]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8126885/Property-market-faces-long-road-to-recovery.html

Property market faces 'long road to recovery'

Britain’s housing market faces a “long road to recovery” as figures showed mortgage lending failed to pick up last month.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8096036/Britains-property-market-in-double-dip.html

Britain's property market in 'double-dip'

Britain’s property market is in the midst of a “double dip”, economists reveal, as figures show mortgage lending dropping to a tenth of the level seen during the previous month.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8092757/House-prices-drop-in-value-by-more-than-average-salary.html

House prices drop in value by more than average salary

House prices are dropping in value by more than a typical annual salary, figures from Nationwide have showed.

Academetrix are just plain wrong. If they are working with LR data they are behind the curve by at least 2 quarters and the LR data is not a reliable guide as it does not take into account forced sales (which are a high proportion of sales in a low turnover market), cost of recent improvements and the fact that, 6 months ago, mostly higher end properties were changing hands. They should be ashamed of themselves and deeply embarassed by publishing what amounts to EA propganda.

Edited November 12, 2010 by Realistbear

[Pent Up]

Someone said that the academetrics use all data submitted to the land registry including what the LR doesn't use in it's figures due to them "not being reflective of true Market value" ie forced sales. But this surely can't be the case as there is such a difference between the two indices and you would expect academetrics to be lower not £60k higher.

Academetrics often revise the figures from several months back.

[Ash4781]

This seems quite bearish. Transactions are low, and the other report says demand is expected to fall.

[abharrisson]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8126885/Property-market-faces-long-road-to-recovery.html

Property market faces 'long road to recovery'

Britain’s housing market faces a “long road to recovery” as figures showed mortgage lending failed to pick up last month.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8096036/Britains-property-market-in-double-dip.html

Britain's property market in 'double-dip'

Britain’s property market is in the midst of a “double dip”, economists reveal, as figures show mortgage lending dropping to a tenth of the level seen during the previous month.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8092757/House-prices-drop-in-value-by-more-than-average-salary.html

House prices drop in value by more than average salary

House prices are dropping in value by more than a typical annual salary, figures from Nationwide have showed.

Academetrix are just plain wrong. If they are working with LR data they are behind the curve by at least 2 quarters and the LR data is not a reliable guide as it does not take into account forced sales (which are a high proportion of sales in a low turnover market), cost of recent improvements and the fact that, 6 months ago, mostly higher end properties were changing hands. They should be ashamed of themselves and deeply embarassed by publishing what amounts to EA propganda.

And the Daily Telegraph is your new oracle..... pleeeeease................ Acadametrics results have their part to play alongside the other indeces. If you haven't worked out by now how they work after 24,000 posts then i'm afraid it's too late for you.... none of the indeces are very reliable with such low volume sales , acadametrics actually have the benefit of potentially being less volatile due to their methodology..... either way NONE of the indices will give you any clue whatsoever of what house prices are doing in your area or whether asking price of any house you are interessted in is anywhere near fair value.

Whatever your misplaced and illjudged feeling s are about the report i t's actually pretty well balanced pointing as it does to a falling market, with prices ending the year in many regions at a lower point than they started the year.

[Realistbear]

And the Daily Telegraph is your new oracle..... pleeeeease................ Acadametrics results have their part to play alongside the other indeces. If you haven't worked out by now how they work after 24,000 posts then i'm afraid it's too late for you.... none of the indeces are very reliable with such low volume sales , acadametrics actually have the benefit of potentially being less volatile due to their methodology..... either way NONE of the indices will give you any clue whatsoever of what house prices are doing in your area or whether asking price of any house you are interessted in is anywhere near fair value.

Whatever your misplaced and illjudged feeling s are about the report i t's actually pretty well balanced pointing as it does to a falling market, with prices ending the year in many regions at a lower point than they started the year.

"U.K. house prices increased to the highest in more than two years

in October

as the property market showed signs of

peaking

, research company Acadametrics Ltd. and LSL Property Services Plc said in an estimate released today."

If you think this is well balanced you might be erring slightly on the side of minor misjudgment.

I mean, FHS, prices have increased to where they are now at a peak? They have been falling for months. Showing signs of (present perfect) peaking? This is the worst propaganda I have seen yet. Even the NAEA would be embarassed by such misleading tripe.

[abharrisson]

"U.K. house prices increased to the highest in more than two years

in October

as the property market showed signs of

peaking

, research company Acadametrics Ltd. and LSL Property Services Plc said in an estimate released today."

If you think this is well balanced you might be erring slightly on the side of minor misjudgment.

I mean, FHS, prices have increased to where they are now at a peak? They have been falling for months. Showing signs of (present perfect) peaking? This is the worst propaganda I have seen yet. Even the NAEA would be embarassed by such misleading tripe.

Clearly you have settled on your point of view and are selectively qutoing to try and prove the point. There's nothing I can do about that I'm afraid, other than to suggest you read the whole report and then revisit how they and the others come to their conclusions and then have a further thought about it.... as I said it's a pretty balanced report and that you insist otherwise doesn't I'm afraid change that.

[Pent Up]

And the Daily Telegraph is your new oracle..... pleeeeease................ Acadametrics results have their part to play alongside the other indeces. If you haven't worked out by now how they work after 24,000 posts then i'm afraid it's too late for you.... none of the indeces are very reliable with such low volume sales , acadametrics actually have the benefit of potentially being less volatile due to their methodology..... either way NONE of the indices will give you any clue whatsoever of what house prices are doing in your area or whether asking price of any house you are interessted in is anywhere near fair value.

Whatever your misplaced and illjudged feeling s are about the report i t's actually pretty well balanced pointing as it does to a falling market, with prices ending the year in many regions at a lower point than they started the year.

Transactions aren't low. Thery are slightly down on last year and this is only the first month they have been down y/y. Neither bull nor bear can argue low transactions skewing the figures.

[Timm]

Someone said that the academetrics use all data submitted to the land registry including what the LR doesn't use in it's figures due to them "not being reflective of true Market value" ie forced sales. But this surely can't be the case as there is such a difference between the two indices and you would expect academetrics to be lower not £60k higher.

Academetrics often revise the figures from several months back.

LR use a "standardised house" methodology. They are trying to measure how a standard house has changed in value.

Acadametrics don't.

The revisions are down to late data being received from solicitors that relates to a month up to three months in the past.

The headline MoM figure is an estimate, a "best guess", and affected in great part by the other indexes. This month, Rightmove and Halifax will have excerted upward pressure. As the actual sales data comes in from the solicitors through the LR, that 0.3% will be revised.

And I'm going to stick my neck out and say their prediction for next months MoM will be solidly negative.

[abharrisson]

Transactions aren't low. Thery are slightly down on last year and this is only the first month they have been down y/y. Neither bull nor bear can argue low transactions skewing the figures.

Transactions ARE very very low compared to a more normal , historic level of activity... Nationwide themselves even go as far as warning off reading anything into their regional figures becasue of this... anyone who doesn't think all these indices are not hampered by volatility caused by low transactions must be living on planet Zog..... why do you find it so difficult to accept that low transactions make the results unreliable..... its a fact, its not something you can get away from.

Perhaps it's becasue those who hear the unrelaibiliuty message choose not to hear it becasue they fear it might be an attack on their treasured crash speed... I'd be making ( and have made) the same point when prices were reportedly rising with low volumes.

Whichever way you cut it though you will find it very very difficult to promote a "transactions aren't low" point of view as it's just plain wrong I'm afraid.

[Pent Up]

Transactions ARE very very low compared to a more normal , historic level of activity... Nationwide themselves even go as far as warning off reading anything into their regional figures becasue of this... anyone who doesn't think all these indices are not hampered by volatility caused by low transactions must be living on planet Zog..... why do you find it so difficult to accept that low transactions make the results unreliable..... its a fact, its not something you can get away from.

Perhaps it's becasue those who hear the unrelaibiliuty message choose not to hear it becasue they fear it might be an attack on their treasured crash speed... I'd be making ( and have made) the same point when prices were reportedly rising with low volumes.

Whichever way you cut it though you will find it very very difficult to promote a "transactions aren't low" point of view as it's just plain wrong I'm afraid.

'choose not to hear it becasue they fear it might be an attack on their treasured crash speed...'

I think you have me wrong here. I am a bear, the low transaction argument from bears (or bulls) is not one I agree with.

Transactions have been, for the most part higher this year than last. So were the rises last year skewed by low volumes? And transactions are higher this year than 08, so were the falling indicies then skewed?

There may be a case with regard to the mortgage lenders indicies as they may have significantly lost Market share recently. As may be the case with halifax's wild swings. But not for ones such as this and LR.