AvidFan Posted July 11, 2010 Share Posted July 11, 2010 http://www.scribd.com/doc/33704566/RBS-European-Rates-Weekly-20100625 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvidFan Posted July 11, 2010 Author Share Posted July 11, 2010 Here's the PDF: 33704566-RBS-European-Rates-Weekly-20100625.pdf From page 1: Get ready for the cliff-edge. Be maximum long duration of nominalgovernment bonds in safe haven markets. This means US, UK, Germany, in that order, and perhaps others. Be long gold. Think the unthinkable – we always do, and you should ask yourself why the consensus refuses to do so, and seems perpetually on the ‘everything is ok’ side of events. If I was any more bond bullish we would explode, this is identical to 2008, including the incredible complacent (and we believe wrong) consensus. From page 2: We cannot stress enough how strongly we believe that a cliff-edge may be around thecorner, for the global banking system (particularly in Europe), and for the global economy (particularly in the US/Europe). 33704566-RBS-European-Rates-Weekly-20100625.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvidFan Posted July 11, 2010 Author Share Posted July 11, 2010 And this from page 3: The BoE financial stability report today shows there is a surplus of 1.75m housing units built since 2006and even with normal household creation, this will take two years to remove. Are they talking about the UK market, because they start talking about US housing at the beginning of the paragraph...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvidFan Posted July 11, 2010 Author Share Posted July 11, 2010 The big turnover in the US economy will lead to dramatic turns down in valuations we suspect – and may finally destroy the world’s worst cult: the cult of the equity, which has no basis in fact, or history, but yet seems universally accepted. This all sounds somewhat doomsdayish, so we should update how the real economy/banking is panning out for us. It is saying: the end-game approaches. Okay - hands up. Which HPC members write the RBS European Rates Weekly newsletter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 11, 2010 Share Posted July 11, 2010 http://www.scribd.co...Weekly-20100625 Is this an RBS publication ? Their previous track record is not great so I'm just wondering how credible their views are at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvidFan Posted July 11, 2010 Author Share Posted July 11, 2010 Is this an RBS publication ? Their previous track record is not great so I'm just wondering how credible their views are at the moment. It is. And it created quite a storm on HPC and in the press in general. I'm not sure RBS is known for extreme views like this one. No idea what it all means - but I reckon it fits with the idea of a sell off, a double-dip and lets say a bond haircut in Europe and/or a weak Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted July 11, 2010 Share Posted July 11, 2010 It is. And it created quite a storm on HPC and in the press in general. I'm not sure RBS is known for extreme views like this one. No idea what it all means - but I reckon it fits with the idea of a sell off, a double-dip and lets say a bond haircut in Europe and/or a weak Euro. Anything to do with Bob Janjuah? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvidFan Posted July 11, 2010 Author Share Posted July 11, 2010 Gotta love those gold and silver predictions on the "macro-economics forecasts" page... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Bart' Posted July 11, 2010 Share Posted July 11, 2010 Gotta love those gold and silver predictions on the "macro-economics forecasts" page... RB will like those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The General Posted July 11, 2010 Share Posted July 11, 2010 Gotta love those gold and silver predictions on the "macro-economics forecasts" page... God I hope so, I'll hire a lorry so i can load up properly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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