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That Rbs Report That Says "get Ready For The Cliff Edge"

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Here's the PDF:

33704566-RBS-European-Rates-Weekly-20100625.pdf

From page 1:

Get ready for the cliff-edge. Be maximum long duration of nominal

government bonds in safe haven markets. This means US, UK, Germany, in

that order, and perhaps others. Be long gold. Think the unthinkable – we

always do, and you should ask yourself why the consensus refuses to do so,

and seems perpetually on the ‘everything is ok’ side of events. If I was any

more bond bullish we would explode, this is identical to 2008, including the

incredible complacent (and we believe wrong) consensus.

From page 2:

We cannot stress enough how strongly we believe that a cliff-edge may be around the

corner, for the global banking system (particularly in Europe), and for the

global economy (particularly in the US/Europe).

33704566-RBS-European-Rates-Weekly-20100625.pdf

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And this from page 3:

The BoE financial stability report today shows there is a surplus of 1.75m housing units built since 2006

and even with normal household creation, this will take two years to remove.

Are they talking about the UK market, because they start talking about US housing at the beginning of the paragraph...?

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The big turnover in the US economy will lead to dramatic turns down in valuations we suspect – and may finally destroy the world’s worst cult: the cult of the equity, which has no basis in fact, or history, but yet seems universally accepted.

:o

This all sounds somewhat doomsdayish, so we should update how the real economy/banking is panning out for us. It is saying: the end-game approaches.

:o:o

Okay - hands up. Which HPC members write the RBS European Rates Weekly newsletter?

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Is this an RBS publication ?

Their previous track record is not great so I'm just wondering how credible their views are at the moment.

It is. And it created quite a storm on HPC and in the press in general. I'm not sure RBS is known for extreme views like this one.

No idea what it all means - but I reckon it fits with the idea of a sell off, a double-dip and lets say a bond haircut in Europe and/or a weak Euro.

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It is. And it created quite a storm on HPC and in the press in general. I'm not sure RBS is known for extreme views like this one.

No idea what it all means - but I reckon it fits with the idea of a sell off, a double-dip and lets say a bond haircut in Europe and/or a weak Euro.

Anything to do with Bob Janjuah?

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Gotta love those gold and silver predictions on the "macro-economics forecasts" page...

RB will like those.

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  • 142 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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