Us Heading For House Price Crash, Greenspan

[Loanshark]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,...1752866,00.html

[needle]

I agree but it took 5 years for his stock market warning to have an effect......

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

The man`s a star, have you seen this zzg113 and Only Me.

[theChuz]

Pre retirement speach ha!

What the monetary politicians need to do is say to the general public

"Look guys the economy is screwed once again by you lot, we need to cut rates again to try and get outselves out of this mess but i can only do that if you promise to be good and not borrow to much. Now will you promise me ... hand on heart?"

Its so predictable , it must be even more so to the economists, the boom and bust nature of it all purely because you cannot control peoples irationality.

[BandWagon]

Yep, Al G is heading out soon.

I sincerely hope that history will look back upon him with favour.

I doubt they will do the same for Gordon Brown.

But such is life in the world of 5-year politics.

This is quite some leaving present.

BUt it may turn out to be his biggest gift to the USA.

Get the F£$k out of housing people...

[Sledgehead]

In a pre-retirement speech to fellow central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Mr Greenspan said that people were investing in houses as if they were a one-way bet, not allowing for the risk of price falls. He said “history had not dealt kindly” with investors who kept ignoring risks.

Heading for a crash? I think it's about time he stepped aside for either:

TTRTR

BTL London

laurejon

King of the Castle

Property Guru

The Little Guy

nodumsunreader

or, for that matter, Nigel Wiggins, hartlepool parks gardener, recently turned property developer

Any of these guys clearly have a much better understanding of housing markets. Doesn't he know that property never crashes? Somebody oughta tell him they just ain't making land no more. that would shut 'im up good and proper!

Edited August 27, 2005 by Sledgehead

[Saving For a Space Ship]

They were just discussing Greenspan comments & US housing market on BBC News 24 World Business Report with Dean Baker of the Centre for Policy Research at about 2.35am.

Generally Baker was very bearish.

He said in refence to US hpi something like 'The only question now, is how it crashes, not when or if'

RealPlayer link here, but may not be updated yet from last report edition http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsa/n5ctrl/progs/bu.../wbr/latest.ram

Edited August 27, 2005 by Saving For a Space Ship

[OnlyMe]

   

The man`s a star, have you seen this zzg113 and Only Me.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah, maybe no other person would take over his position - knowing what he has set them up for when he retires.

As for bearing gifts it's a bit like saying I put poison in the water supply, better start researching a cure before it is too late.

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

As for bearing gifts it's a bit like saying I put poison in the water supply, better start researching a cure before it is too late.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It wll be interesting to see the reaction stateside to his statement. Will the media make a meal of it?

Well that must shock the VIs here, or will they say it`s different here, well I must agree, after all we are the most indebted nation in the western world.

[Guest Riser]

I wonder if our Mervyn King (Chairman of the MPC) will ever have the balls to say what he really thinks and tell the British Public that House Price wealth is an illusion that must be dispelled if we are to get any sort of economic stability in the future.

The FED are currently increasing interest rates in an attempt to deflate the US housing bubble in an orderly fashion but Greenspan’s comments suggest he thinks the falling market will build its own momentum and a crash is unavoidable.

Here in the UK, last months irresponsible decision to cut rates in a last ditch attempt to increase economic growth will fail and simply delay the house price crash by a couple of months. The UK housing bubble has inflated further and faster than in the States and is already starting to burst. Housing in the States will no doubt follow in 6-12 months but we are now likely to see sterling fall as the impact of falling prices ripples through our economy.

Brown will have to move into number 10 before Christmas or he will risk not getting in a all so I suspect Blair will cry out of the top job in the next three months on some sort of health/ stress grounds. After all he needs to make a few quid on the after dinner speech circuit if he is to pay of the losses from his property investments

Towards the end of next year falling sterling and a sharp rise in inflation fuelled by rising oil prices will force the MPC to raise interest rates up above 5% which will send many households to that wall.

[Offshore Joe]

There was a brief (about 10 seconds) mention, of Greenspan's comments, on the CBS Evening News (carried by SkyNews in the small hours) this morning. The gist was along the lines of; House Prices can fall, with a mention of the high debt amongst US households. (this sounds familiar...)

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

I wonder if our Mervyn King (Chairman of the MPC) will ever have the balls to say what he really thinks and tell the British Public that House Price wealth is an illusion that must be dispelled if we are to get any sort of economic stability in the future.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Maybe AG`s speech will give him the courage to speak out more.

A case of come on whose going to say it first.

There was a brief (about 10 seconds) mention, of Greenspan's comments, on the CBS Evening News (carried by SkyNews in the small hours) this morning. The gist was along the lines of; House Prices can fall, with a mention of the high debt amongst US households. (this sounds familiar...)

Could be that they are trying to get their heads around it, shocked that he has finally come out with it.

[Catch22]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,...1752866,00.html

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

OH I posted Greenspans comments at 8.52pm last night ..........I suppose you were out getting "paralytic" at the time ..........I don't know why I bother sometimes ........http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=14524

Edited August 27, 2005 by Catch22

[Clouseau]

I don't see that public sentiment as a driver of HPI will ever fundamentally change, even thru the crash which is coming - the fact is, if you buy right & sell right, there is a possibility of real profit, & the hope of this will always fuel that 'irrational exuberance', IMO; more rational to accept this greed/madness as a part of the human condition, & figure out how best to take advantage of it ..

[FaTB]

They were just discussing Greenspan comments & US housing market on BBC News 24 World Business Report with Dean Baker of the Centre for Policy Research at about 2.35am.

Generally Baker was very bearish.

He said in refence to US hpi something like 'The only question now, is how it crashes, not when or if' 

RealPlayer link here, but may not be updated yet from last report edition http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsa/n5ctrl/progs/bu.../wbr/latest.ram

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes i also saw this report and have been looking for the link.

He was quite matter of fact about it "Horse has bolted" and "when and how not if"

etc. there was obviously no doubt in his mind.

Just hope we're next !!

[Smell the Fear]

Pre retirement speach ha!

What the monetary politicians need to do is say to the general public

"Look guys the economy is screwed once again by you lot, we need to cut rates again to try and get outselves out of this mess but i can only do that if you promise to be good and not borrow to much. Now will you promise me ... hand on heart?"

Its so predictable , it must be even more so to the economists, the boom and bust nature of it all purely because you cannot control peoples irationality.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Is there one good reason why credit should be extended so massively to buy housing assets? Which other asset class is this permitted in on such a scale?

why don't we all accept that this is what happens and limit the credit available for this purpose?

Clearly the banks cannot be trusted to do this. It needs to be enshrined in law for the common good.

[Catch22]

Is there one good reason why credit should be extended so massively to buy housing assets? Which other asset class is this permitted in on such a scale?

why don't we all accept that this is what happens and limit the credit available for this purpose?

Clearly the banks cannot be trusted to do this. It needs to be enshrined in law for the common good.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I've always been of this view, but in reality one has not to confuse the "Cities" best interests with that of the "common good" And lets be realistic here, the country is run to suit the City, and not the other way round.........democracy at work.....my a*rse

[Guest Riser]

Is there one good reason why credit should be extended so massively to buy housing assets? Which other asset class is this permitted in on such a scale?

why don't we all accept that this is what happens and limit the credit available for this purpose?

Clearly the banks cannot be trusted to do this. It needs to be enshrined in law for the common good.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It has being enshrined in law in the States and comes into effect in November, people with large debts will by law be required to sign up to a plan to pay back their debt, I will try and find the link. People are predicting this policy could result in the fabled credit crunch.

Kitco Discussion

If you think of it from the government ie central banks point of view it allows them to have their cake and eat it, limiting bad debt by forcing repayemnt plans by law possibly with direct access to peoples pay, and allowing low rates to ensnare yet more of the public with the debt required to fuel economic growth.

Edited August 27, 2005 by Riser

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

It has being enshrined in law in the States and comes into effect in November, people with large debts will by law be required to sign up to a plan to pay back their debt, I will try and find the link. People are predicting this policy could result in the fabled credit crunch.

Well I can see an avalanche of bankruptcies prior to November and a possibility of it happening here in the future when the numbers of bankruptcies increase dramatically.

[Smell the Fear]

It has being enshrined in law in the States and comes into effect in November, people with large debts will by law be required to sign up to a plan to pay back their debt, I will try and find the link. People are predicting this policy could result in the fabled credit crunch.

Kitco Discussion

If you think of it from the government ie central banks point of view it allows them to have their cake and eat it, limiting bad debt by forcing repayemnt plans by law possibly with direct access to peoples pay, and allowing low rates to ensnare yet more of the public with the debt required to fuel economic growth.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It will also make people more reluctant to borrow, as the risk is greater for them personally, and less for the creditor.

Perhaps the credit crunch will be self imposed given that there will be no easy way out of debt?