South Wales Has Got Dangerously Over-Dependent On Public Sector Employment

[The Masked Tulip]

Ken Clark gave a talk in Cardiff last night. Said that any future Govt would have to do enormous public sector cuts. Went on to say that Wales has replaced industry with the public sector and that Wales is now over-reliant on public sector jobs.

So, the Tories are going to slash public spending big time which will mean big job cuts?

So, the Tory shadow Chancellor thinks that Wales is over-reliant on public sector jobs?

Hmm...

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=135695

[niceathome]

There we are then

[carrera]

There we are then

Always had a lot of time for Kenneth Clarke.. .

[The Masked Tulip]

I notice that that mock tudor job in Blackpill, which has been on for years and come down from 390 to 310, is back on RM today - it went SSTC in the Autumn.

Not looked on RM for about a year so very out of touch with local prices and number of properties for sale.

[carrera]

I notice that that mock tudor job in Blackpill, which has been on for years and come down from 390 to 310, is back on RM today - it went SSTC in the Autumn.

Not looked on RM for about a year so very out of touch with local prices and number of properties for sale.

Well its the opposite in Cardiff ... houses going on at 15% over 2007 prices ..... and they wonder why nobody is buying. However ........Sentiment is definitely changing in my view. Met an honest agent the other day who said the "writing is on the wall its just a matter of when it goes pop".

A few of my friends in the public sector have heard whispers that cuts are underway and that the budget for next year means senior level is where the cuts will be coming ( It's ok TMT I told them not to be so niave!!)

Just given up on buying in cardiff and have taken out a 10 month rental instead .... will sit back wait... I`m not paying these prices .....

[gus]

I notice that that mock tudor job in Blackpill, which has been on for years and come down from 390 to 310, is back on RM today - it went SSTC in the Autumn.

Not looked on RM for about a year so very out of touch with local prices and number of properties for sale.

In that sorry old spot named planet earth, worth at best 250K. Fear not ,despite the perpetual hardcore spin, we are slowly being sucked back to a place that remains but a confusing and unattractive metaphysical construct for the majority in the UK ; you and I used to call it the "real world".

Interesting telephone conversation (can sometimes be more revealing than face to face) with EA this week. I had just offered 75% on a reduced figure on a place to the north of Swansea. Without too much probing he said that although Jan had been a good month for them, he genuinely feared that we were about to enter a new downward phase with funds still inaccessible to the majority, jobs continuing to be lost and wages suppressed.But in the face of all these depressing signals , he maintains Jo Public is the party that still resolutely refuses to confront the facts and drop his prices. " Nowt as strange as folk" ... were truer words ever spoken?

[The Masked Tulip]

Well its the opposite in Cardiff ... houses going on at 15% over 2007 prices ..... and they wonder why nobody is buying. However ........Sentiment is definitely changing in my view. Met an honest agent the other day who said the "writing is on the wall its just a matter of when it goes pop".

A few of my friends in the public sector have heard whispers that cuts are underway and that the budget for next year means senior level is where the cuts will be coming ( It's ok TMT I told them not to be so niave!!)

Just given up on buying in cardiff and have taken out a 10 month rental instead .... will sit back wait... I`m not paying these prices .....

Good for you - Cardiff is so far up its own backside now. Most of it down to Welsh Language QUANGO, just QUANGO and other public sector jobs.

Inbteresting comments from that EA you met - did he/she seem depressed or just, well, facing the inevitable. Did you get any more information?

[The Masked Tulip]

In that sorry old spot named planet earth, worth at best 250K. Fear not ,despite the perpetual hardcore spin, we are slowly being sucked back to a place that remains but a confusing and unattractive metaphysical construct for the majority in the UK ; you and I used to call it the "real world".

Interesting telephone conversation (can sometimes be more revealing than face to face) with EA this week. I had just offered 75% on a reduced figure on a place to the north of Swansea. Without too much probing he said that although Jan had been a good month for them, he genuinely feared that we were about to enter a new downward phase with funds still inaccessible to the majority, jobs continuing to be lost and wages suppressed.But in the face of all these depressing signals , he maintains Jo Public is the party that still resolutely refuses to confront the facts and drop his prices. " Nowt as strange as folk" ... were truer words ever spoken?

Yes, I think I posted on here about 2 years ago that an EA then told me it was worth 250K tops and needed extensive modernisation - so another 50K on top of that. Not going to get it are they.

Fascinating conversation with the EA - a Swansea EA at that. I went on RM yesterday for the first time in about a year and did one of those searches for how many properties within 5 miles of SA2 on the market within 7 and 14 days - was surprised how few to be honest.

I loathe renting, am eating into my STR fund but, frankly, if things get so bad then the reality is that there will be few jobs here in the coming decade.

[greenroommonkey]

Well its the opposite in Cardiff ... houses going on at 15% over 2007 prices ..... and they wonder why nobody is buying. However ........Sentiment is definitely changing in my view. Met an honest agent the other day who said the "writing is on the wall its just a matter of when it goes pop".

A few of my friends in the public sector have heard whispers that cuts are underway and that the budget for next year means senior level is where the cuts will be coming ( It's ok TMT I told them not to be so niave!!)

Just given up on buying in cardiff and have taken out a 10 month rental instead .... will sit back wait... I`m not paying these prices .....

Good for you patience is a virtue.

We have been looking at houses in the Cardiff area for a couple of years now, some price drops, some have been revised upwards since Christmas.

There seems to be so much confusion out there.

To add to the confusion we tried to book a resturaunt on saturday night and was amazed that our first choice was fully booked, second choice, had one table for 2 at 9.30pm, went with third choice for a reasonable time (all three top end pricewise).

So much for belt tightening.

my conclusion though is many public sector workers burying heads in sand before the inevitable cull.

Most private sector businesses we deal with have already made the cut backs needed to stay competitive and seem on the face of things to have picked up orders since christmas (my company too).

[The Masked Tulip]

Good for you patience is a virtue.

We have been looking at houses in the Cardiff area for a couple of years now, some price drops, some have been revised upwards since Christmas.

There seems to be so much confusion out there.

To add to the confusion we tried to book a resturaunt on saturday night and was amazed that our first choice was fully booked, second choice, had one table for 2 at 9.30pm, went with third choice for a reasonable time (all three top end pricewise).

So much for belt tightening.

my conclusion though is many public sector workers burying heads in sand before the inevitable cull.

Most private sector businesses we deal with have already made the cut backs needed to stay competitive and seem on the face of things to have picked up orders since christmas (my company too).

A friend was telling me about his girlfriend, a nurse in Cardiff, who is happily spending in the belief that her job is safe until she retires. Talking to her it turned out that she had no idea about the economic woes facing the UK - not a stupid person by any means - but is cocooned in her world of 9 till 4, her 42 days holiday with bank hols on top, if she works any time overtime one week she simply takes that time off the following week.

There are tens of thousands like her in Wales. They are in for a huge shock.

[greenroommonkey]

:oMy other half is a nurse as well, and it the stories she comes home with about people from work are astonishing.

From the £20k dream weddings that seem a regular occurance, by people with no spare cash in starter homes bought over the last couple of years, to others who are contemplating £250k mortgages on a salaries of £30k.

These are educated people who have no idea what is going on behind the media/ government bs.

[The Masked Tulip]

:oMy other half is a nurse as well, and it the stories she comes home with about people from work are astonishing.

From the £20k dream weddings that seem a regular occurance, by people with no spare cash in starter homes bought over the last couple of years, to others who are contemplating £250k mortgages on a salaries of £30k.

These are educated people who have no idea what is going on behind the media/ government bs.

They all believe they have jobs for life. The councils are the same. I met a chap who used to work for British Steel, had been made redundant and ended up working for a Council in South Wales. He could not believe how easy the work was but, despite that, he said the staff constantly moaned about hard done by they are.

[gus]

Yes, I think I posted on here about 2 years ago that an EA then told me it was worth 250K tops and needed extensive modernisation - so another 50K on top of that. Not going to get it are they.

Fascinating conversation with the EA - a Swansea EA at that. I went on RM yesterday for the first time in about a year and did one of those searches for how many properties within 5 miles of SA2 on the market within 7 and 14 days - was surprised how few to be honest.

I loathe renting, am eating into my STR fund but, frankly, if things get so bad then the reality is that there will be few jobs here in the coming decade.

I've only owned two houses in my lifetime, my first being bought at the ripe old age of 37. So infact, I've spent the majority of my life as a cossetted tenant and I can honestly say, with the exception of one awkward dipstick in Ilford , that I've never had a problem landlord. (Hell , my last one gave me a Rolex 6 months after moving into her flat. Mind, she did take it out of my soul! ).

Like most of us I have visions of living in my own little space , private and secure, but in my position(single, childless and 50+)I realise more and more that owning is a luxury I can do without. With no interest in DIY, gardening or status displays, owning will surely be just an expensive and worrying distraction from the important things in life. That money you're going to tie up in your pile you could use to enjoy your remaining years travelling, relaxing... having fun. With no one to leave it all to , do you really want the state to strip you bare in your final years?

I play with the dream too, but in reality I'm far from convinced that buying is right for me at this stage of the game.The problem is ,after a life time of relative frugality ,it's hard to suddenly change direction and convince yourself that spend spend spend is the right thing to do. Larkin was right about mum and dad !

[The Masked Tulip]

I notice that the Post is reporting today that senior posts are going to go in the Council - what affect on all those Swansea West house prices? It is begining.

http://www.thisissouthwales.co.uk/southwalesnews/Swansea-Council-chiefs-facing-axe/article-1804440-detail/article.html?authid=U09ttuQr2o4BM0Anltaq1OTKCYFI95xxuhW8mcNcbRpCpBW8u1265282720583&cacheBust=Iw5E66pim4Dg&clrspcErr=rCNoSh#addcomment

[carrera]

Good for you - Cardiff is so far up its own backside now. Most of it down to Welsh Language QUANGO, just QUANGO and other public sector jobs.

Inbteresting comments from that EA you met - did he/she seem depressed or just, well, facing the inevitable. Did you get any more information?

She was upbeat ..but under no illusions about the future. She said Cardiff will drop, its just a matter of time - there are literally a hand full of buyers who are proceedable and so many chains are broken.

If the right house came up -at a reasonable price, I would re-evaluate things. But most need to drop 20% to get me contacting an agent ...tick tock ..

[The Masked Tulip]

She was upbeat ..but under no illusions about the future. She said Cardiff will drop, its just a matter of time - there are literally a hand full of buyers who are proceedable and so many chains are broken.

If the right house came up -at a reasonable price, I would re-evaluate things. But most need to drop 20% to get me contacting an agent ...tick tock ..

The EAs down in S'sea are still in denial - you get all this nonsense about full asing prices so even getting the usual 90% offer past them to the vendor is pointless. Need at least 20% drop for me to be interested as well, more like 25% but that is not on the cards yet.

Lots of public sector job loss annoucements now happening across South Wales though.

[gus]

In that sorry old spot named planet earth, worth at best 250K. Fear not ,despite the perpetual hardcore spin, we are slowly being sucked back to a place that remains but a confusing and unattractive metaphysical construct for the majority in the UK ; you and I used to call it the "real world".

Interesting telephone conversation (can sometimes be more revealing than face to face) with EA this week. I had just offered 75% on a reduced figure on a place to the north of Swansea. Without too much probing he said that although Jan had been a good month for them, he genuinely feared that we were about to enter a new downward phase with funds still inaccessible to the majority, jobs continuing to be lost and wages suppressed.But in the face of all these depressing signals , he maintains Jo Public is the party that still resolutely refuses to confront the facts and drop his prices. " Nowt as strange as folk" ... were truer words ever spoken?

Well, my 75% cash offer has been rejected out of hand. Apparently the vendor has put in new carpets and has recently "SPRING CLEANED" and so has told the EA that he now wants to increase the price. The agent has advised against such perverse action on the basis that despite the fact that it's been on the market for over two years there has only been one previous offer.

In a nation so deeply and hopelessly lost in the mindless trivia of life I know I shouldn't be surprised by his reaction. But profound stupidity is a bit like grotesque deformity; you know you shouldn't stare but you just can't turn away.

[The Masked Tulip]

Well, my 75% cash offer has been rejected out of hand. Apparently the vendor has put in new carpets and has recently "SPRING CLEANED" and so has told the EA that he now wants to increase the price. The agent has advised against such perverse action on the basis that despite the fact that it's been on the market for over two years there has only been one previous offer.

In a nation so deeply and hopelessly lost in the mindless trivia of life I know I shouldn't be surprised by his reaction. But profound stupidity is a bit like grotesque deformity; you know you shouldn't stare but you just can't turn away.

Madness. The unemployment annoucements are coming thick and fast now so best to hang on 6 months I think.

Interesting article in the Wall Street Journal about London having the biggest property bubble and it not yet having burst. For London, read the UK. It is going to happen here in the next 18 months at most IMPO - the public sector jobs cull is going to get interesting.

[reggie]

She was upbeat ..but under no illusions about the future. She said Cardiff will drop, its just a matter of time - there are literally a hand full of buyers who are proceedable and so many chains are broken.

Which part of Cardiff was she talking about? Or just Cardiff in general? We're in the CF15 market - not much seems to be coming on the market and anything resembling fairish value goes. We looked at a property recently that needed new everything, we made an offer based on what a simlilar property had gone for in 2007 and was told we'd need to add another 20k - we didn't but it has now sold.....It makes us wonder when and if drops will happen in this area...

[Tiger Woods?]

From the £20k dream weddings that seem a regular occurance, by people with no spare cash in starter homes bought over the last couple of years, to others who are contemplating £250k mortgages on a salaries of £30k.

These are educated people who have no idea what is going on behind the media/ government bs.

These are not educated people; they are people who have degrees. Sadly, the concepts of being educated and educational attainment have diverged somewhat from their original highly correlated state.

[The Fisher King]

We're in the eye of the storm. It looks OK but around us is Chaos, we're just waiting for the next phase.

Edited February 5, 2010 by The Fisher King

[gus]

Madness. The unemployment annoucements are coming thick and fast now so best to hang on 6 months I think.

Interesting article in the Wall Street Journal about London having the biggest property bubble and it not yet having burst. For London, read the UK. It is going to happen here in the next 18 months at most IMPO - the public sector jobs cull is going to get interesting.

No probs.I view these forays into the market are a form of guerrilla warfare; raised hopes dashed with offers which come only from the disappointing Real World (unlike them ,I still belong to it!).I may not get the gaff ,but in this market a 70% offer makes the dream-owners sit back and reflect, if only for a while.

If I can get the right place at an honest and fair price I'll proceed, but sure as hell, I will NOT give away sweat-stained cash to someone who thinks he's entitled to double his money be sitting on his fissure for 10 years.

Things are unravelling faster than many realise and I'm still worried .......about those banks.

[stevejones24]

Why don't you lot just buy a prioperty and get on with your lives instead of wasting money on rent and stressing about house prices all the time. I know a guy who sold his property around 2003-4, because he said prices were overvalued and he was going to buy back at half the price when there was a price crash. Well even after the price crash, the property he sold is still worth double. And he has wasted his money on rent for the past 6-7 years. He now realises that he may never be able to afford to get back on the property market.

If you need a home to live, just buy one. You will be there for a long time probably and it will go up in value over the long term. It's pointless worrying about the odd 5-10%.

I bet most of you have wasted more in rent than you will save in getting a cheaper property.

Obviously avoid the really overvalued ones. But there are many properties in Swansea at bargain prices. I mean big 3-5 bed homes in Uplands/Brynmill/Sketty. I can't see them getting much cheaper. Most of them don't have high mortgages. Most have been lived in for years. There is no pressure to sell them at all, as they are good for rental income.

You are deluding yourselves if you think these types of property will crash in price.

[The Masked Tulip]

Why don't you lot just buy a prioperty and get on with your lives instead of wasting money on rent and stressing about house prices all the time. I know a guy who sold his property around 2003-4, because he said prices were overvalued and he was going to buy back at half the price when there was a price crash. Well even after the price crash, the property he sold is still worth double. And he has wasted his money on rent for the past 6-7 years. He now realises that he may never be able to afford to get back on the property market.

If you need a home to live, just buy one. You will be there for a long time probably and it will go up in value over the long term. It's pointless worrying about the odd 5-10%.

I bet most of you have wasted more in rent than you will save in getting a cheaper property.

Obviously avoid the really overvalued ones. But there are many properties in Swansea at bargain prices. I mean big 3-5 bed homes in Uplands/Brynmill/Sketty. I can't see them getting much cheaper. Most of them don't have high mortgages. Most have been lived in for years. There is no pressure to sell them at all, as they are good for rental income.

You are deluding yourselves if you think these types of property will crash in price.

What you mean after that BBC Wales programme last night when the bloke from Shelter Swansea said that the number of people contacting Shelter re mortgage arrears had trebled and that people had borrowed from family, paid mortgage on credit cards, etc, and that they could not go on much longer before it all falls apart.

Or the lady from Swansea job centre talking about all the professionals in Swansea they have seen signing on - accountants, managing directors, white collar types.

The dam is about to burst. The cracks are already appearing.

[stevejones24]

What you mean after that BBC Wales programme last night when the bloke from Shelter Swansea said that the number of people contacting Shelter re mortgage arrears had trebled and that people had borrowed from family, paid mortgage on credit cards, etc, and that they could not go on much longer before it all falls apart.

Or the lady from Swansea job centre talking about all the professionals in Swansea they have seen signing on - accountants, managing directors, white collar types.

The dam is about to burst. The cracks are already appearing.

Those programs are meant to shock.The people they dig up are a very small minority indeed. And most people who have their houses repossessed deserve it. They overspend on everything and don't make any attempt to save for a rainy day. Anyone who buys a house should have enough saved money to be able to cope with being out of work for a year or so. Interest rates have dropped, so why can't these people afford their mortgage. Probably because they bought a ew car, spashed out on a holiday or spent it down the pub. If they made mortgage payments a priority they would be ok. And if they don't have savings they shouldn't be buying soemthing as expensive as a house.

What you don't mention above is what the shelter figures are. Saying people with mortgage arrears has trebled sounds alarming. But if it has increased from 1 year to 3 a year it's next to nothing. We've had boom times, so arrears must have been very low. So if they have trebled they are probably still low.

That's life.