Maddog21 Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 Apologies if posted before found this amongst the ramping Does FP post on here anymore? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8224453.stm Also House prices 'to keep on rising' http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8350707.stm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sceptacled Bear Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 Apologies if posted before found this amongst the ramping Does FP post on here anymore? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8224453.stm Also House prices 'to keep on rising' http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8350707.stm Great Scott! A post about house prices and nobody even replied to it! By the way, I like the Nouvelle Vague version of Guns of Brixton better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barb E Dahl Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 Apologies if posted before found this amongst the ramping Does FP post on here anymore? http://news.bbc.co.u...ess/8224453.stm Also House prices 'to keep on rising' http://news.bbc.co.u...ess/8350707.stm Well done Johnathon Davies! Straight to the point as ever and states the facts of this situation rather than just speculating! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sceptacled Bear Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 oh for god's sakes...bump bump bump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTL_and_milking_it Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 Well done Johnathon Davies! Straight to the point as ever and states the facts of this situation rather than just speculating! The facts in this situation are house prices were rising when he wrote the article and have continued to rise since 'BTL mortgages are practically non existent' - what planet is he on? This guy really is a complete tit. House prices have risen to a higher level than he sold out at and he's pissed about that. Both himself & the discredited Merryn need to realise if they keep trying to de-ramp the housing market, they'll just make it more obvious they really don't have a clue what they are talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porca misèria Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 Great Scott! A post about house prices and nobody even replied to it! By the way, I like the Nouvelle Vague version of Guns of Brixton better. It's not about house prices, it's just two links, without adequate intro to motivate a poor piggy to follow them. (besides, how many HPCers were here between the OP and your followup?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maddog21 Posted November 20, 2009 Author Share Posted November 20, 2009 (edited) It's not about house prices, it's just two links, without adequate intro to motivate a poor piggy to follow them. (besides, how many HPCers were here between the OP and your followup?) House prices in the UK have risen for the fourth month in a row, according to the latest survey by the Nationwide Building Society. So is this a sign that a recovery in the housing market is in full swing? Views among most commentators suggest that there will be some fluctuation in the months ahead, but not all are agreed on how extreme those movements will be. The BBC News website asked two industry analysts generally at opposite ends of the argument to give their response to some typical questions from prospective homebuyers and owners. Financial planner Jonathan Davis has been a long-time critic of the housing market bubble, and Ashley Brown is the director of independent mortgage broker Moneysprite. Has the UK housing market recovered? If I buy now, have I bought at the bottom of the market? Is it a good time to become a buy-to-let investor? Can I get a mortgage now? Will mortgage costs remain low for some time? Has the UK housing market recovered? AB: The housing market, we seem to have forgotten, is cyclical, and there has been plenty of evidence in recent months that suggests we are now on an upward curve. Ask any estate agent whether they have interested buyers on their books, and they will say yes. Similarly, there are considerably more prospective borrowers approaching brokers. As a whole, there is much more interest in property, there are more transactions and as the economy picks up I expect this to continue. Sentiment is at the heart of any recovery and sentiment has, albeit tentatively, returned. Nobody is saying the recovery will be smooth as there are bound to be some set-backs along the way, particularly a degree of buyer caution when interest rates inevitably rise, but as the economy strengthens so, more fundamentally, will buyer confidence. The housing market has not recovered but it is recovering. JD: The market fell some 25% from the September 2007 high to the beginning of this year. Due mainly to temporary government stimulus - borrowings which will be paid after the next election for many years by higher taxes and lower public sector spending - the market has risen to around 20% below the highs. The trend is still very much down. No trend goes in a straight line otherwise it would be called a straight line! Transaction numbers are still roughly a half of the long-term norm. Most purchases this year have been high deposit - from bank of mum and dad - or actual cash buyers. You do not have a 15-year house price rise, ending in the biggest bubble of all time and the biggest economic and financial collapse since World War One and a house price crash which only lasts 18 months. If I buy now, am I buying at the bottom of the market? AB: In my opinion, the very bottom of the market was reached several months ago, when cash buyers and professional property investors were having a field day. But now is still a good time to buy and many people are becoming increasingly wary of missing the boat, as underlined by rising buyer interest. Ultimately, though, for most people property is bought primarily to live in, and this should not be forgotten. People should buy at a time that is appropriate for their circumstances, not at a time that is being labelled "the bottom". JD: No. When the government stimulus ends there will be nothing holding up the market. Prices will fall 20-30% from here to 2011/12. Think unemployment, government debt, household debt, rising mortgage rates, bank bad debts, corporate and personal bankruptcies, recession (depression?), then taxes and public sector cuts next year. Not a backdrop for sustainably rising house prices. Is it a good time to become a buy-to-let investor? AB: Yields are good for the investor at present, but it is definitely a market for the serious buy-to-let investor, who knows the market and is investing for the long term. Over the past 12 months we have seen a lot of amateur investors suffering because they dived into the buy-to-let market without doing their research first, particularly those investors who bought new-build city centre developments. That sector of the market is still suffering from over-supply and although there may be bargains to be picked up, it is crucial you do your homework and make sure the demand is there before buying. JD: No. Rents and capital values are in a falling trend, buy-to-let mortgages are practically non-existent and, by comparison, you can get 3-4% problem-free returns just by having money on deposit in a building society account. Can I get a mortgage now? AB: The banks are still being overly cautious but if you have a deposit of at least 10% then there are deals out there. However, for the most competitive rates you will need a deposit of at least 25%. Of course, it does not all come down to the size of the deposit. Lenders are now looking at lot harder at credit history, earnings and even the type of employment you are in. Getting a mortgage is certainly a lot harder than it was two years ago but is by no means impossible. In fact, for many people, with big deposits and good credit histories, stable employment and who meet all the criteria, it is still a fairly straightforward process. JD: Of course. But if house prices fall again, as we believe they will, why would you? Consider what you could rent during the next couple of years - you might be surprised by the value available. Will mortgage costs remain low for some time? AB: Swap rates and Libor, which determine lenders' borrowing costs, have been low and falling for some time; in fact, they are now at record lows. The Bank of England has indicated it will hold rates for the time being as well, as it is wary of unsettling the incipient recovery we are seeing. The base rates of central banks around the world will rise as things improve, but increased lending competition in the UK will soak up some of these increases and prevent the spike in borrowing rates that some are predicting. Also, major tax rises over the next few years, to pay for past government borrowing, will be a natural brake on inflation, and hence rate rises. JD: No. They are already rising even though the Bank of England rate has stayed static for months. This is because of global markets. They will continue to rise for years. Even the Bank of England rate will eventually rise - it can hardly go lower as it is only 0.5%. To get a reasonable rate you need a 30% to 40% deposit. The amount of deposit will stay like that for years. Edited November 20, 2009 by Maddog21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sceptacled Bear Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 It's not about house prices, it's just two links, without adequate intro to motivate a poor piggy to follow them. (besides, how many HPCers were here between the OP and your followup?) This board clearly is not what it once was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drrayjo Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 The facts in this situation are house prices were rising when he wrote the article and have continued to rise since 'BTL mortgages are practically non existent' - what planet is he on? This guy really is a complete tit. House prices have risen to a higher level than he sold out at and he's pissed about that. Both himself & the discredited Merryn need to realise if they keep trying to de-ramp the housing market, they'll just make it more obvious they really don't have a clue what they are talking about. Aaaaanyway, fruit-loop, nouveau-riche rentfarmer tantrums aside...(assuming BTL_and_packing_it is not a satirical genius)...JD stays very much consistent and does occasionally post on here, yes. Of course, his is the longest of games as he's totally "invested" in the bear view so we need to get past the bull trap/stimulus high before his predictions even CAN come to pass. His remains the most rational view though, and while the UK future will remain admirably rentier-friendly, socially irrational, unharmonious and unjust, BTL and real price peaks exist on the thinnest of air. The smartest, long-gone bears (eg. dstars, what a legend) from days gone by ALWAYS SAID 2010 was the earliest a meaty correction could bed in, as they predicted the hysterical, and - at least partially futile - response from the Authorities and their client chisellers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maddog21 Posted November 20, 2009 Author Share Posted November 20, 2009 Aaaaanyway, fruit-loop, nouveau-riche rentfarmer tantrums aside...(assuming BTL_and_packing_it is not a satirical genius)...JD stays very much consistent and does occasionally post on here, yes. Of course, his is the longest of games as he's totally "invested" in the bear view so we need to get past the bull trap/stimulus high before his predictions even CAN come to pass. His remains the most rational view though, and while the UK future will remain admirably rentier-friendly, socially irrational, unharmonious and unjust, BTL and real price peaks exist on the thinnest of air. The smartest, long-gone bears (eg. dstars, what a legend) from days gone by ALWAYS SAID 2010 was the earliest a meaty correction could bed in, as they predicted the hysterical, and - at least partially futile - response from the Authorities and their client chisellers. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bomberbrown Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 BBC Headline: House prices 'to rise' BBC Main text: House prices are likely to rise Way to ramp BBC!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Little Professor Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 It's not about house prices, it's just two links, without adequate intro to motivate a poor piggy to follow them. Exactly. Just posting bald links with no real explanation isn't likely to get many visitors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonBrownSpentMyFuture Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 Exactly. Just posting bald links with no real explanation isn't likely to get many visitors. Agreed... especially when Jonathan Davis posted a direct link to the exact same article himself the day it was published, almost 3 months ago, and 5 pages of discussion ensued. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=123829 Still, if you want to discuss it again here I suppose we can. What would you like to add, gents? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaraCroft Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 The facts in this situation are house prices were rising when he wrote the article and have continued to rise since 'BTL mortgages are practically non existent' - what planet is he on? This guy really is a complete tit. House prices have risen to a higher level than he sold out at and he's pissed about that. Both himself & the discredited Merryn need to realise if they keep trying to de-ramp the housing market, they'll just make it more obvious they really don't have a clue what they are talking about. Looking at previous threads when John seemed to be a regular on here it looks like he made comments that would never have stood up to scrutiny. On this occasion its "House prices fell some 25% between Sep 07 and the beginning of the year". No they didn't."The market has now risen to about 20% below the highs". No they haven't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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